YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor

The debut entry from a new federal poll series finds low primary support for the major parties and an unusually tight race on two-party preferred – although it would be a different story if preferences flowed as they did at last year’s election.

As reported here in early May, British-based market research giant YouGov has entered the Australian federal polling game, in conjunction with Australian communications agency Fifty Acres. After reporting attitudinal polling on a fortnightly basis over recent months, the pollster has produced its first set of voting intention numbers, which are exclusively related below.

First though, a few points about methodology. The poll is conducted through an online panel, similar to Essential Research, and indeed an increasingly dominant share of public opinion polls internationally. The polling is conducted fortnightly from Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of a bit over 1000 respondents (1125 in the case of the latest survey), drawn from its pool of survey volunteers.

With respect to voting intention, respondents are presented with a mock ballot paper featuring (together with party logos) Coalition options that vary by state, Labor, the Greens, One Nation, Nick Xenophon Team, Katter’s Australian Party, a generic option for “Christian parties”, and “other/independent”. The results are weighted not just by age, gender and region, which is standard in Australian polling, but also by education and past vote. The latter two are common in Britain but, as far as I’m aware, unique in Australia. Needless to say, this leads to two-party preferred results based on respondent allocation, rather than results from previous elections.

The results for this week’s poll are distinctive in the narrowness of the two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead at 51-49, and low primary votes for both major parties, which come in at 34% for Labor and 33% for the Coalition. Results for the minor parties are Greens 12%, One Nation 7%, Christian parties 4%, Nick Xenophon Team 3%, Katter’s Australian Party 1% and other/independent 6%.

The first thing to be noted is that Labor would record a much stronger lead of 54-46 if preferences were distributed as per the 2016 result, rather than respondent allocation. However, such is the size of the non-major party vote that this would be heavily dependent on preference flows remaining stable despite some fairly dramatic changes in vote share. The second point is that the Greens are two to three points higher than the recent form of Newspoll and Essential Research, although not Ipsos. One Nation and the Nick Xenophon Team respectively come in at 7% and 3%, which would be fairly typical coming from Essential Research, but the combined vote of 11% for everyone else is around double the equivalent figure from Newspoll and Essential Research over the past two months.

For the regular attitudinal questions, this fortnight’s poll focuses on Donald Trump, with findings that 58% consider him “erratic” and a third “unhinged” (not sure if the one response here precludes the other, or if we should combine them to conclude that nearly everybody considers him unstable or worse); that 47% think his presidency threatens to destabilise the world; that 44% feel he won’t last long; and that 52% think his use of Twitter not suitable for a world leader. The poll also records 52% saying Australia is “ready to be fully powered by renewables”, 47% considering climate change a threat to the economy, and 51% supporting the inclusion of clean coal in a clean energy target.

NOTE: Separate to this one, I have a new post that takes a detailed look at the census results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 14
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  2. Melbourne University Press will withdraw Louise Milligan’s book about George Pell from Victorian bookshops following the cardinal’s charges for multiple historical sexual offences.

    Cardinal: The Rise and Fall of George Pell details allegations against Pell, but now he has been charged the book may prejudice the case and be in contempt of court.

    The chief executive of MUP, Louise Adler, said she started the removal process on Thursday after she heard he had been charged. She has not received any communication from Pell’s lawyers about removal of the book.

  3. ‘Miranda Devine is an odious slime’

    It’s a reflection of the state of our media that she has the platform of ‘major’ newspapers to air her views.
    Didn’t she also used to ‘work’ for Fairfax?

  4. Pell may end up getting a judge only trial due to concerns around getting a fair trial, which I accept as reasonable, as did Rayney in WA.

    If I was on the jury Pell would need to be worried, I’d go into the jury room with a very dim view of him, be skeptical of any evidence he gave and be overly willing to accept evidence against him. Basically he’d be up against it getting a “not guilty” out of me.

  8. grimace @ #204 Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 1:38 pm

    Pell may end up getting a judge only trial due to concerns around getting a fair trial, which I accept as reasonable, as did Rayney in WA.
    If I was on the jury Pell would need to be worried, I’d go into the jury room with a very dim view of him, be skeptical of any evidence he gave and be overly willing to accept evidence against him. Basically he’d be up against it getting a “not guilty” out of me.

    You should appraise the evidence of ALL parties with a sceptical mind.

  9. Sums up my view 😆

    MickKime: @JamColley Murdoch press – “Without fear or favour, we will distract you with rivers of effluent.”

  11. There is a media pack of 12, with cameras, currently waiting for Abbott to leave the Centre for Independent Studies on Macquarie Street.
    I wonder if he can possibly leave the building without being tempted to lambast his own party?

  12. Maybe its not too nice of me, but it is, in my view, appropriate that Pell should suffer extended anxiety, pressure and grief, since he has deliberately inflicted anxiety, pressure and grief upon so many. It couldn’t happen to a more deserving carbuncle on the backside of humanity. A truly repellent individual.

  13. Abbott actually complimented Bill Shorten and labor for their continued bipartisanship on national security and also said labor was stronger than the Turnbull government re China.

    “The enemy of my enemy .. ” sort of thing.

    Cheers.

  14. I agree everyone should be entitled to get a fair trial, so let me just say I am delighted Mr George Pell has an opportunity to clear his name in court.

  15. Bemused
    I would enjoy Devine taking me on at the courts.
    She is a nasty cretinous odious excuse for a human being.
    Bring it on.

  16. MikeCarlton01: Oh dear. I very much fear this will tip poor, poor Gerard “Gollum” Henderson right off the planet. smh.com.au/national/cardi… via @smh

    GerardHendersen: I’ve cancelled all future media commitments for the next six months to recover. Thanks for your concern, Mike. twitter.com/MikeCarlton01/…

  18. George Pell should not need to consult doctors about whether he is fit to travel.
    He should be happy for the effect of the trip to be determined by the god that he claims to have faith in.

  20. Criminal trials are there for people to clear their names.

    Judge alone is risky as crown only needs to convince one person. Plus there may be a right of appeal firm an acquittal which there is not from a jury acquittal.

  22. Seth

    Campbell Newman has called for Turnbull to resign.

    You’d think that Newman would just keep hiding in a weed patch somewhere.

    The idea of him giving useful political advice is ludicrous.

  25. Lizzie
    What about libraries that have stocked the Pell book.
    The library I manage has several copies of said tome.
    We will not withdraw our copies.

  26. shellbell @ #220 Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 2:13 pm

    Criminal trials are there for people to clear their names.
    Judge alone is risky as crown only needs to convince one person. Plus there may be a right of appeal firm an acquittal which there is not from a jury acquittal.

    There was discussion of Jury vs Judge alone trials on ABC Melbourne this morning and it was stated that in Victoria, unlike NSW, they don’t have Judge alone trials. I assume this was with reference to criminal trials as civil certainly do have Judge alone.

  29. Ahhh Zoomie – somebody-or-other’s law says that if you make a comment about typos you are doomed to make one yourself. Try ad with one d. But yes, I’d prefer my second-hand couches to have no stains, no tears (rhymes with bears) and no stains of tears (rhymes with beers).

  33. But Shellbell, in a sense your first version was right. One of the functions of a crim trial is that a not guilty verdict officially clears the accused’s name. Though it often leaves people with a lingering doubt.

  36. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/29/indonesian-boy-wrongfully-jailed-in-wa-adult-prison-for-people-smuggling-has-conviction-overturned

    A young Indonesian man who served time in a Western Australian adult prison for people smuggling despite being a child at the time has had his conviction overturned.

    Ali Jasmin, also known as Ali Yasmin, was a crew member on a boat transporting 55 Afghan asylum seekers and was aged 14 in December 2010 when he was sentenced as an adult to five years in prison.

    He was among dozens of Indonesian children prosecuted by Australian authorities between 2010 and 2012 after they were deemed adults using the now-discredited method of wrist x-rays.

  37. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-29/george-pells-charging-and-what-it-means-for-the-church-kennedy/8663554

    The Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse is ongoing, with its final recommendations due in December.

    ::::
    The Catholic Church has its ancient traditions to overcome.

    For instance, all serving archbishops told the royal commission they would not report to police a colleague who admitted in the confessional to child rape.

  40. Hewson lets fly at Abbott, Howard and Pyne.

    The nicest descriptions of Pyne, as a “prancing poodle”, and “the ultimate political butterfly”, are too kind. He is all, and only, for Pyne. He has never really stood for anything else. He has had no genuine interest in any portfolio he has ever held. He is yet to graduate from playing university politics. Yes, he can be an effective parliamentary and media performer, and he can certainly extract almost obscene amounts of money to save his seat, but he soon grates. His self-indulgent speech in the Cherry Bar proves both his disloyalty, and his lack of policy substance, let alone poor judgment.

    The Government’s response to this circus has been underwhelming – basically to “deny”, and to attempt to close ranks behind Turnbull, as if nothing really happened. This will not cut with the electorate. Voters do not see this as a media beat-up, even with the media feeding frenzy. They see a deep-seated, structural weakness in the disunity of the Liberal Party, compounded by its Coalition partners that have also been free to run amok.

    Voters want to see Turnbull lead on this issue as well. Impose direction and discipline, and demonstrate that you can indeed govern yourselves.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/john-hewson-first-rule-of-politics-is-to-show-you-can-govern-yourselves-20170629-gx0xu8.html

  43. Lizzie

    Frequent visitors to my place know that looking at my ‘fridge door tells them my thoughts on current politics. {grin}

  44. Lizzie

    I can understand that. Even if that victory is true it does nothing to help the unemployed students or others hit by the robodebt. So still work to do.

  46. Mark Di Stefano ‏Verified account @MarkDiStef · 2h2 hours ago

    Catholic press confirms Pell is the highest ranking Catholic to ever be charged in the global sexual abuse scandal

  47. Jacka A Randa
    That may be the effect but it is not the purpose and the difference matters.

    The rule is that the crown/police should only ever prosecute on the basis it has formed the view that there are reasonable prospects of conviction. It should not proceed on the basis that it has no view and leave it to the courts/juries to decide.

  49. Another NSW moderate, a fierce opponent of Abbott, told me he believed the former prime minister was angling to be appointed governor-general as the price of his exit – a move already mooted by conservative columnist Miranda Devine in the Daily Telegraph. “He hasn’t had any job offers, and not for want of trying,” said this moderate. “He would kill for this gig, and knows Turnbull is biddable. It makes sense.”

    It would be a most cynical bargain if it ever came off, and Devine’s comparison with Bob Hawke’s elevation of the man he deposed, Bill Hayden, is a poor one. Abbott is a most divisive figure not at all suited to a post in which he would have to reach out to all Australians. Hayden attracted a high degree of public sympathy after being replaced on the eve of an election that he memorably characterised as being winnable by “a drover’s dog.”

    In addition, Hayden, who served with distinction under Hawke as foreign minister, was exemplary in his behaviour, both in public and private, towards the man who took his job, whatever his personal feelings might have been.

    No former prime minister has ever become governor-general, and it would be an unwelcome precedent for that job to be treated as both a soft landing and a consolation prize that can be had as the price of silence. Abbott is simply not in the class of former politicians who have ended up at Yarralumla, including Isaac Isaacs, William McKell, Paul Hasluck and Hayden.

    http://insidestory.org.au/adding-fuel-to-the-abbott-conundrum

  50. Shellbell, Stated another way, both the investigating police, and the Victorian DPP’s officers have decided, based on evidence collected, that it is likely that Pell is guilty, and that a jury can be convinced of that. They believe the complainants, and they do not believe Pell. That is why they believe that ‘there are reasonable prospects of conviction’.

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