ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll finds voters favouring Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott for the Liberal leadership by a two-to-one ratio, with Labor maintaining a moderate lead on voting intention.

A new poll conducted for ReachTEL by Sky News gives Labor a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which is down from 53-47 at the last such poll on May 11. At the moment, primary vote figures are limited to the first question which allowed for an undecided response, which comes in a 7.1% – I assume the undecided were then given a forced response question, to which we don’t yet have the results. If the undecided are simply excluded from the available numbers, the results are Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.6%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 9.8%.

An all-or-nothing question on the Liberal leadership breaks 68.3-31.7 in favour of Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott, while Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 54.1-45.9 as preferred prime minister. Turnbull’s combined very good plus good rating is “just under 27%”, compared with 36.5% for poor or very poor. Same-sex marriage has 62.4% supportive and 25.9% opposed, with most believing the matter should be determined by a plebiscite, and 64.1% believe penalty rates should be higher on Sundays than Saturdays. The poll was conducted yesterday from a sample of 2389.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

610 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. confessions @ #599 Saturday, July 1st, 2017 – 11:52 pm

    AR:

    He’s probably saving the war card for closer to the 2020 election.

    I like to think he was about to type “…Russia, just like when we defeated crooked Hillary and won the election together” and one of his staffers looked over his shoulder and had to wrestle his phone away from him before he could hit ‘Send’.

  2. Elaugaufein
    Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 11:45 pm
    Young people generally lean left vote wise, probably because they tend to be socially progressive and don’t have a big enough stake in the status quo to vote right to preserve what they’ve got. The thing is they don’t vote reliably while the older demographic that leans conservative do. The weird thing about this election in the UK which lacks compulsory voting, is that young people actually registered and turned out to vote in fairly high numbers.

    this is fascinating…..

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election/

  3. ….for every 10 years older a voter is, their chance of voting Tory increases by around nine points and the chance of them voting Labour decreases by nine points. The tipping point, that is the age at which a voter is more likely to have voted Conservative than Labour, is now 47 – up from 34 at the start of the campaign…

  4. @Elaugaufein

    Young people are leaning more to left lately than in previous decades because conservative economics has well and truly destroyed their future prospects.

  5. Yeah, it’s certainly true there’s greater difference now than historically. The correlation between age and voting has intensified in both directions though which suggests it’s something more than that (you wouldn’t expect an increase in the conservativism of the older demographic just because young people are screwed). Though it’s possible the 2 things have independent causes.

  6. I’m getting a little tired people using the excuse Julia Gillard Prime Ministership failed because she was a woman. Look at Anastacia Palaszczuk premier of Queensland who leads a Labor party united that is committed to her premiership.

    The fact remains is
    1) Gillard challenged a first term Prime Minster
    2) She called a snap election like Theresa May when she had a honeymoon period and it backfired bringing her government into minority.

    Malcolm Turnbull has done the same thing challenging Tony Abbott and these actions will always end in tears. Challenging a first term PM is going to lead to these inevitable consequences.
    Their actions has also given ammunition for sections in the public accusing politicians of ‘being in it all for themselves’ and suggestions that there all ‘untrustworthy’ which has been a factor in the public turning off the major parties and parking their vote elsewhere.

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