ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll finds voters favouring Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott for the Liberal leadership by a two-to-one ratio, with Labor maintaining a moderate lead on voting intention.

A new poll conducted for ReachTEL by Sky News gives Labor a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which is down from 53-47 at the last such poll on May 11. At the moment, primary vote figures are limited to the first question which allowed for an undecided response, which comes in a 7.1% – I assume the undecided were then given a forced response question, to which we don’t yet have the results. If the undecided are simply excluded from the available numbers, the results are Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.6%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 9.8%.

An all-or-nothing question on the Liberal leadership breaks 68.3-31.7 in favour of Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott, while Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 54.1-45.9 as preferred prime minister. Turnbull’s combined very good plus good rating is “just under 27%”, compared with 36.5% for poor or very poor. Same-sex marriage has 62.4% supportive and 25.9% opposed, with most believing the matter should be determined by a plebiscite, and 64.1% believe penalty rates should be higher on Sundays than Saturdays. The poll was conducted yesterday from a sample of 2389.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

610 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Caught out by William! From the last thread …

    bk @ #672 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 2:42 pm

    What financial institution would want to touch “clean coal” with a barge pole?
    https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/06/28/breaking-southern-co-officially-yanks-plug-kemper-clean-coal-power-plant-warns-it-may-recognize-loss-3-4-billion

    No-one in their right mind would put money in coal mines or coal generation these days – clean or otherwise. I believe this is the second such “clean coal” plant in the US that has ended up being converted to natural gas … which would of course have been a much faster, cheaper and cleaner alternative in the first place!

    Australia is just so backwards on this issue, thanks to our idiotic government. It wouldn’t surprise me if we ended up being the last significant coal-burning country in the world, and it would serve us right if the rest of the world put trade sanctions on us for being so bloody stupid.

  2. America’s Flagship ‘Clean Coal’ Experiment Abandoned After 11 Years And $7.5 Billion

    The coal industry suffered a major blow on Wednesday when the utility giant Southern Company abandoned work on its troubled Mississippi “clean coal” facility amid skyrocketing costs.

    The Kemper County Energy Facility, conceived under President George W. Bush, promised to turn coal into cleaner-burning gas and provide a model for the future of coal. But after 11 years and $7.5 billion, the plant failed to produce commercially viable technology.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/kemper-clean-coal_us_59554276e4b0da2c73221799

  3. Also a repeat
    —————-

    Bemused

    So Rudd should have resigned?

    Clumsy goal shift effort.

    I didn’t suggest that at all.

    What I said was his behavior was not dignified. You stated several nights ago that KRudd should have been in “Mega’s” A list of leaders who were deposed and behaved with dignity . He did not.

    End correspondence re’ this /full stop

  4. phoenixred @ #3 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 3:17 pm

    America’s Flagship ‘Clean Coal’ Experiment Abandoned After 11 Years And $7.5 Billion
    The coal industry suffered a major blow on Wednesday when the utility giant Southern Company abandoned work on its troubled Mississippi “clean coal” facility amid skyrocketing costs.
    The Kemper County Energy Facility, conceived under President George W. Bush, promised to turn coal into cleaner-burning gas and provide a model for the future of coal. But after 11 years and $7.5 billion, the plant failed to produce commercially viable technology.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/kemper-clean-coal_us_59554276e4b0da2c73221799

    What’s the next fatuous direction? Phlogiston?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phlogiston_theory

  5. FFS! DO NOT encourage Bemused and his unhinged reprosecution of the RGR wars.

    Pleeaaasssseeeeeeeee!!!! Stop it! STOP!

  6. ctar1 @ #4 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 3:17 pm

    Also a repeat
    —————-
    Bemused

    So Rudd should have resigned?

    Clumsy goal shift effort.
    I didn’t suggest that at all.
    What I said was his behavior was not dignified. You stated several nights ago that KRudd should have been in “Mega’s” A list of leaders who were deposed and behaved with dignity . He did not.
    End correspondence re’ this /full stop

    Quitting while you are behind?
    Good decision, could only get worse for you. 😉

  7. citizen @ #13 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 3:51 pm

    Probyn this afternoon – says only what we already know and doesn’t answer his own question, except he assumes that Abbott will outlast Turnbull:
    Tony Abbott prepares for post-Malcolm Turnbull era, but exactly what would his part in that be?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-30/how-could-tony-abbott-fit-in-a-post-turnbull-liberal-party/8667572

    The Libs new leader would need to find a shadow ministry for Tones so it would come down to what they felt they could most afford to have stuffed up.

  8. Wasn’t Turnbull the only reason why Tony Abbott’s party didn’t run out of cash in the last election? Will Abbott be stumping up the millions too? If not, how can he outlast anything when his party is broke?

  9. Good afternoon all,

    I was wondering if William (or someone else with far more insight than I ) would be able to inform me where the primary votes of 36.5 for the coalition and 35.6 for labor have come from. I cannot see anything in any of the Skynews reporting referring to those primaries.

    Thanks in advance.

    Cheers.

  10. Doyley @ #18 Friday, June 30th, 2017 – 4:00 pm

    Good afternoon all,

    I was wondering if William (or someone else with far more insight than I ) would be able to inform me where the primary votes of 36.5 for the coalition and 35.6 for labor have come from. I cannot see anything in any of the Skynews reporting referring to those primaries.

    Thanks in advance.

    Cheers.

    I’d say it would be if you eliminate the no responses.

  11. I have just re read the above poll analysis by William and my question is answered clearly re the primary figures. So all good.

    Cheers.

  12. Essential:

    Same-sex marriage has 62.4% supportive and 25.9% opposed, with most believing the matter should be determined by a plebiscite

    Obviously ‘most’ have not heard that some members have already stated that they will vote for what they think is right, plebiscite or no plebiscite.

  13. Simon Katich Friday, June 30, 2017 at 3:45 pm

    Getting close to Trump tweet time. Will he double down?

    ************************************************

    Delegitimizing his presidency, one tweet at a time

    The longer such antics go on, more and more people will question whether the leader of the free world is not just damaging his own presidency, but demeaning the office itself and potentially diminishing it for whoever comes after him.

    It’s unworthy of the office of President of the United States,” Maine Sen. Susan Collins told CNN’s Anderson Cooper. “And I am concerned about how we look in the eyes of the world as well as our own citizens.”

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/30/politics/trump-presidency-respect/index.html

  14. Jack A Randa

    Federal-State Relations?

    Foreign Affairs Minister is usually the ‘spot’ but in this case probably not!

  15. UK: Grenfell Tower

    In 2014, contractors working for Kensington and Chelsea Council were asked to replace zinc cladding with a more economical aluminium version.

    Police investigating the disaster have said the tower’s cladding has subsequently failed safety tests.

    One of the documents obtained by the BBC is a list of requested savings sent to contractors in July 2014, including £293,368 that would be saved by fitting “aluminium cladding in lieu of zinc cladding”.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40453054

  16. Yes CTar I was being a bit sarky – but since the Feds really don’t care too much about alienating the States I thought – why not put Tones in the job and do it properly?

  17. Sorry Jen

    CTar1: What I said was his behavior was not dignified. You stated several nights ago that KRudd should have been in “Mega’s” A list of leaders who were deposed and behaved with dignity . He did not.

    Bemused doesn’t understand the definition, let alone the concept, of “dignity”.
    —-
    Bemused @ Friday, June 30, 2017 at 10:36 am

    And what I thought about the treacherous Gillard. The ‘loyal’ deputy with the stiletto.

    You might have some semblance of credibility if only, once, you’d said the same about that treacherous bastard Hawke (for overthrowing Hayden), or that treacherous bastard Keating (for overthrowing Hawke), or that treacherous bastard Crean (for overthrowing Beazley), or that treacherous bastard Rudd (for overthrowing Crean). But you didn’t, and you haven’t. At most you’ve said about Latham that you saw right through him from the start. But you’ve never bagged him for overthrowing Crean.

    And your attempts at a rolling commentary on just about everybody, is extremely sad.

    And you may have thought, with hindsight, that that treacherous bastard Latham deserved a shot across the bows, for overthrowing Crean. But you didn’t say it at the time. Did you?

    Aw, shucks, that’s just the hurly burly of politics.

    So, no, not once, not ever, have your condemned a male who has usurped another male, in the Labor party.

    Yet you can agree that Tony Abbott is a bastard, for doing what Rudd did; desperate undermining of the person who deposed him. But you won’t allow that Rudd did the same.

    All your venom is reserved for a woman. And it’s best realised in your own word, “stiletto”

    What a joke you are.

    And that’s not encompassing all the shit you throw, willy-nilly, at fellow Laborites.

    Your fall-back comeback is always, “it was a joke!” or “lighten up,” But, it’s not funny, what you say. And it’s very sad, that you lack the self-awareness to understand yourself.

  18. phoenixred @ #27 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 4:26 pm

    Russia claim the HMS Queen Elizabeth warship is nothing more than a ‘large convenient target’
    Defence Secretary Sir Michael Fallon said Russia would have a “little bit of envy” for the UK’s $A5.2 billion HMS Queen Elizabeth.
    http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/inventions/russia-claim-the-hms-queen-elizabeth-warship-is-nothing-more-than-a-large-convenient-target/news-story/4382aa4b6edd9dec229524be3b671016

    Well the Brits did provoke the bear with some comments about their carrier.

  19. Latham didn’t actually overthrow Crean. Crean quit because it was clear he was going to lose the leadership, most likely to Beazley. The Crean and otherwise anti-Beazley forces then got behind Latham.

  20. Bemused
    Putting on my pedant hat the russian ship is not an aircraft carrier. They call it a heavy aircraft-carrying missile cruiser 🙂

  21. Well said Kezza..

    It’s obvious to all except Bemused that he has different rules of behaviour for men and women ..particularly powerful women..

    ..I contend that fits within the definition of sexism..

  22. markjs @ #37 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 4:40 pm

    Well said Kezza..
    It’s obvious to all except Bemused that he has different rules of behaviour for men and women ..particularly powerful women..
    ..I contend that fits within the definition of sexism..

    Nope. I have the utmost admiration for many of Labor’s women and see a number of potential leaders among them.
    I have also had the pleasure of meeting a few of them, most recently Clare O’Neill.
    I don’t think the Gillard debacle will hold them back.

  23. Bemused
    QEII needing a phalanx of protective craft was the basis of the russian jibe. The russian ship is a heavy missile cruiser and so is bristling with anti “everything” missiles in addition to the aircraft. The tricky bit is keeping the engine going 🙂

  24. What ‘Gillard debacle”?

    Please try for some consistency, bemused. A few years ago you conceded that Gillard delivered the policies Labor already had set in motion. Many of these policies are still in place, or (it is generally agreed) should still be in place.

    So what is it now? That these policies didn’t get delivered? That they were disasters?

    It would be nice to see you celebrate Labor’s years in power, which achieved many good things, rather than constantly undermining those achievements because of your obsession with personalities.

    ..particularly when Gillard’s successors haven’t left anything like her legacy.

  25. For the record and to assist Kezza….
    The Best PM I recall was undoubtedly Whitlam.
    I did not have a particularly high regard to Hawke as a man, but acknowledge he did some good things in office. His wife, Hazel, was a much better person, and I would have much preferred her as PM. Impossible, I know.
    I have very mixed feelings about Keating. Loved him in full flight eviscerating the Libs, but he was seduced by neo-liberalism. I cannot forgive him for selling Qantas and the Commonwealth Bank.
    Beazley was Mr nice guy but seemed to lack a bit of fire in the belly that the job required. His GST Rollback was just nuts. I very much like him personally.
    Crean seemed, inexplicable to me, to never be taken seriously and yet he had been an excellent minister. I like him personally.
    Latham I loathed from the first time I became aware of his existence. I just don’t know what Caucus could have been thinking when they made him leader.
    Rudd was excellent at some aspects of being PM, namely winning elections and engaging with people. He was reportedly a micro-manager and that is something I loath. From all reports, Cabinet and Caucus should have curbed some of his negative behaviour and used his great salesmanship ability.
    Gillard was inadequate and unready. My initial goodwill and hopes were dashed well before the 2010 election when she came out with idiotic ideas like ‘citizens assembly’ and ‘cash for clunkers’. It was all downhill from there. Knowing now who she had on her staff I am less surprised.
    Had Rudd quit at the 2010 election or not campaigned for her in Qld she would never have won that election. Had Rudd quit any time after that, she would probably have been out on her sorry arse. Rudd is owed a great debt.
    I voted for Albo as leader but think Shorten has done a great job and would vote for him if that ballot was re-run. So would many others.
    I am not particularly interested in the gender of politicians but their performance. Labor has many excellent male and female Federal MPs and will form a fine government.
    So there it is Kezza, bookmark that and cease making shit up.

  26. The Greens. Australia’s own People’s Front of Judea.
    RICHARD DI NATALE: Why are you always on about women, Adam?

    ADAM BANDT: I want to be one.

    RICHARD DI NATALE: Whaat?!

    ADAM BANDT: I want to be a woman. From now on, I want you to call me Loretta.

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