ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll finds voters favouring Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott for the Liberal leadership by a two-to-one ratio, with Labor maintaining a moderate lead on voting intention.

A new poll conducted for ReachTEL by Sky News gives Labor a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which is down from 53-47 at the last such poll on May 11. At the moment, primary vote figures are limited to the first question which allowed for an undecided response, which comes in a 7.1% – I assume the undecided were then given a forced response question, to which we don’t yet have the results. If the undecided are simply excluded from the available numbers, the results are Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.6%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 9.8%.

An all-or-nothing question on the Liberal leadership breaks 68.3-31.7 in favour of Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott, while Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 54.1-45.9 as preferred prime minister. Turnbull’s combined very good plus good rating is “just under 27%”, compared with 36.5% for poor or very poor. Same-sex marriage has 62.4% supportive and 25.9% opposed, with most believing the matter should be determined by a plebiscite, and 64.1% believe penalty rates should be higher on Sundays than Saturdays. The poll was conducted yesterday from a sample of 2389.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

610 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Re the Queen Liz – first time I saw a picture of “her” I had the same thought as the Russians – what a target! I’m only surprised she isn’t painted with concentric red and white circles. (They could get some sponsorship money from Target stores by doing that.)

  2. zoomster @ #44 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 4:55 pm

    What ‘Gillard debacle”?
    Please try for some consistency, bemused. A few years ago you conceded that Gillard delivered the policies Labor already had set in motion. Many of these policies are still in place, or (it is generally agreed) should still be in place.
    So what is it now? That these policies didn’t get delivered? That they were disasters?
    It would be nice to see you celebrate Labor’s years in power, which achieved many good things, rather than constantly undermining those achievements because of your obsession with personalities.
    ..particularly when Gillard’s successors haven’t left anything like her legacy.

    The biggest debacle was what she did to Labor’s electoral stocks, paving the way for Abbott and the emasculation of the NBN, go-slow on NDIS, defunding of Gonski etc.
    It is usually long running governments that institute reforms and cement them in place e.g. Hawke/Keating. She ensured defeat at the next election.

  3. jack a randa @ #51 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 5:17 pm

    Re the Queen Liz – first time I saw a picture of “her” I had the same thought as the Russians – what a target! I’m only surprised she isn’t painted with concentric red and white circles. (They could get some sponsorship money from Target stores by doing that.)

    Aircraft Carriers do tend to be large, and sit high in the water.

  4. All aircraft carriers are big targets…………what’s the big deal? What this got to do with anything at all?

  5. Bemused

    I’m not making shit up. It’s what you say that tells against you.

    You have never bagged a Labor male for gaining the leadership of the party, despite the circumstances.

    AND, you have always made excuses for Rudd. He was sick, etc.

    Gillard was fine; your derision about cash for clunkers, seriously outweighed my derision of “Rudd’s White Butcher Paper for Celebrities,” which you never seem to mention. Funny that.

    Or did ye forget, like a good liddle Ruddite, about his appallingly stupid waste of political capital?

    Doesn’t matter, to you, does it? Except, if a woman did it.

    And you can make claims like, if Rudd hadn’t campaigned then Gillard wouldn’t have won, all you like.

    The fact is, if Rudd hadn’t been such an entitled person, and had accepted his fate, that he’d been overthrown, and behaved like a man, then Gillard would have won in her own right.

    It was Rudd that gave us Abbott; nothing you can do about that.

  6. “All aircraft carriers are big targets…………what’s the big deal?” The fact that a nation of diminishing importance like the Disunited Kingdom has spent a couple of billion on a new one. In fact the fact that anyone is still building new ones. Very useful as bases for small “police” operations but if a serious shooting match between biggish powers breaks out they’ll all be zapped by missiles before you can say Jack Flash!

  7. Jack A

    the Disunited Kingdom has spent a couple of billion on a new one.

    They are underway building a second one.

  8. Who can forget “Boganville”?

    Rudd’s childish, retributive, petulant collusion with Julie Bishop to ridicule a Labor Prime Minister?

    That’s all you need to know about Rudd, and Bemused.

  10. kezza2 @ #55 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 5:24 pm

    Bemused
    I’m not making shit up. It’s what you say that tells against you.
    You have never bagged a Labor male for gaining the leadership of the party, despite the circumstances.

    Please point to comparable circumstances where a male Labor Deputy knifed a sitting PM? I seem to have missed it or I would probably have condemned it.

    AND, you have always made excuses for Rudd. He was sick, etc.

    Nothing made up, it is fact. He had his gall bladder removed and not long after was in for a heart valve replacement. Neither trivial and gall bladder problems are damned painful prior to surgery and may account for a couple of episodes of tetchiness. Speculation I admit. But they also provided an excellent rationale for Caucus to send him on leave until he recovered.

    Gillard was fine; your derision about cash for clunkers, seriously outweighed my derision of “Rudd’s White Butcher Paper for Celebrities,” which you never seem to mention. Funny that.

    What are you referring to?

    Or did ye forget, like a good liddle Ruddite, about his appallingly stupid waste of political capital?

    Umm I seem to recall a GFC to cope with. Govts usually lose some gloss in hard times.

    Doesn’t matter, to you, does it? Except, if a woman did it.

    A woman was Deputy PM and part of the ‘kitchen cabinet’ calling the shots.

    And you can make claims like, if Rudd hadn’t campaigned then Gillard wouldn’t have won, all you like.

    I am not alone in suggesting that. Losing one more seat in Qld was all it would have taken.

    The fact is, if Rudd hadn’t been such an entitled person, and had accepted his fate, that he’d been overthrown, and behaved like a man, then Gillard would have won in her own right.

    I suppose we will never know for sure, but sticking around did seem to stem the losses in Qld.

    It was Rudd that gave us Abbott; nothing you can do about that.

    Yes, he did perform poorly when campaigning in 2013 and made a bad mistake with the timing of the election.
    But he did claw back some of the votes Gillard had lost and kept Labor in the game. Check the polls at the time.

  11. Germany has legalised Marriage Equality. Merkel changed her mind and allowed a free vote.

    C’mon Australian politicians. Australia is becoming a rights backwater.

  15. From the last thread…

    ItzaDream
    Friday, June 30, 2017 at 10:43 am
    Anyway, who wants a cake even? I heard Lily Tomlin at Enmore, bringing the house down with ‘Who wants to be like them“.

    (Anyone else into Frankie and Grace? Very funny, and some serious issues raised. I think I mentioned this before without a bite.)
    ***********************************************
    A very good series, I am almost through series 3.
    Lot of good issues raised in a very creative way.

  17. Why did you use the term “knifed” in Rudd’s overthrow?

    No blood was spilled. You were getting hysterical, weren’t you?

    Silly woman, bemused.

  18. Single-religion schools have been outlawed in South Africa after a ruling at the Johannesburg High Court.
    Public schools may no longer promote themselves as subscribing to a single particular religion at the exclusion of others, the court ruled.
    ‘The aim is not to ban religious practices in schools but about protecting children’
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/south-africa-single-religion-schools-outlaw-ban-faith-christian-muslim-jewish-a7814231.html

  19. BK
    “Merkel has quickly got SSM for Germany. It’s that easy Malcolm!”

    This is the same Merkel of the CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION? Seems like she gets the true meaning of all three words.

  20. Abbott is trying to effect the same technique as Rudd: drag your rival down by white-anting him, with the aid of your own little cabal, and then step in at the last minute as the hero who saves the furniture.

    Problem for Abbott is that he was never as popular as Rudd, his family aren’t as supportive or as smart at playing the media, his group of supporters are also potential rivals, and he has no policy successes to build on.

    Poor Tony!

  24. bk @ #68 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 6:06 pm

    Single-religion schools have been outlawed in South Africa after a ruling at the Johannesburg High Court.
    Public schools may no longer promote themselves as subscribing to a single particular religion at the exclusion of others, the court ruled.
    ‘The aim is not to ban religious practices in schools but about protecting children’
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/south-africa-single-religion-schools-outlaw-ban-faith-christian-muslim-jewish-a7814231.html

    That’s an extremely interesting approach. It would be good to see it here, but I can’t see it.

  26. ‘Had Rudd quit at the 2010 election or not campaigned for her in Qld she would never have won that election. Had Rudd quit any time after that, she would probably have been out on her sorry arse. Rudd is owed a great debt.’

    Had Rudd not backgrounded against her during the election campaign, she would have won with a thumping margin and Rudd would have been totally irrelevant.

  27. bemused

    ‘She ensured defeat at the next election.’

    No, she did not. Rudd’s constant undermining of her leadership did that.

  28. Poroti – A lot of trust in the Septics to deliver required (and crossed everything).

    (Someone above mentioned that BoM has decided on -7c for here in the morning. Done it before but Faaaarrrrk!)

  30. …and, of course, Rudd used the election campaign to override his colleagues on a range of policies, saddling us with total screamers such as supporting the development of Northern Australia and locking us into a position on Nauru/Manus which most of the party (let alone the nation) finds indefensible.

  31. zoomster @ #76 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 6:12 pm

    ‘Had Rudd quit at the 2010 election or not campaigned for her in Qld she would never have won that election. Had Rudd quit any time after that, she would probably have been out on her sorry arse. Rudd is owed a great debt.’
    Had Rudd not backgrounded against her during the election campaign, she would have won with a thumping margin and Rudd would have been totally irrelevant.

    She was already down the gurgler well ahead of the election. Rudd clawed back some vital votes in Qld.

  35. zoomster @ #80 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 6:17 pm

    …and, of course, Rudd used the election campaign to override his colleagues on a range of policies, saddling us with total screamers such as supporting the development of Northern Australia and locking us into a position on Nauru/Manus which most of the party (let alone the nation) finds indefensible.

    Indeed. And I don’t condone or excuse that.

  37. bemused

    ‘She was already down the gurgler well ahead of the election.’

    Er, no. She was headed for a decent win until someone started leaking against her.

    For example:

    ‘Labor’s leadership change appears to be paying off, with the first Newspoll conducted since Prime Minister Julia Gillard called the federal election showing the ALP has a commanding lead over the Coalition.

    Today’s Newspoll, published in The Australian newspaper, puts Labor 10 points ahead on a two-party preferred basis, leading the Coalition 55 per cent to 45 per cent, a four-point increase on the previous Newspoll.’

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-07-19/labor-builds-poll-lead-under-gillard/909706

  39. zoomster @ #87 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 6:22 pm

    bemused
    ‘She was already down the gurgler well ahead of the election.’
    Er, no. She was headed for a decent win until someone started leaking against her.
    For example:
    ‘Labor’s leadership change appears to be paying off, with the first Newspoll conducted since Prime Minister Julia Gillard called the federal election showing the ALP has a commanding lead over the Coalition.
    Today’s Newspoll, published in The Australian newspaper, puts Labor 10 points ahead on a two-party preferred basis, leading the Coalition 55 per cent to 45 per cent, a four-point increase on the previous Newspoll.’
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-07-19/labor-builds-poll-lead-under-gillard/909706

    Yep, small initial blip which quickly disappeared as she came under scrutiny.

  40. Bemused – Yep, they’re predicting same Sunday morning as well.

    I’m really ‘looking forward to it’. /#@$%&**$ )*^$@@$%^!!!!

  41. bemused

    So you were wrong. She entered the election campaign with a comfortable lead, contrary to your statement.

  43. You can say what you like about Gillard and her great qualities but in my opinion she allowed her political vision to be compromised in the name of PR. I know I always tend towards the superficial in my comments, and I often leave duscussion about the meaty policy matters to others even though they are of course the more important consideration. But I often observe pollies doing things that just scream ‘inauthenticity’ and a kind of neediness for the approval of the electorate which results in the lack of courage that elicits the polar opposite effect.

    I see Turnbull doing it all the time and his stocks really began to fall at around the time he floated a series of policy thought bubbles that popped within 24 hours. I see Shorten at his most convincing when he doesn’t do this and at those times he seems like a strong leader with a solid team. At other times he seems to show hints of giving into the fear and that is what sends shudders of doubt through the nation and risks his standing.

    I know it’s all superficial stuff but the difference between “top bloke/lady”, “don’t think I’d trust him/her…” and “this f!%#er has got to go” can turn on a dime and once the impression is formed it can be irreversible.

    I often find Briefly’s comments, and those of others who campaign at elections, interesting in the way that they talk about the “vibe” out in the electorate. The synergy of public opinion, that swelling tide which moves it one way or the other – three years of good polls for Labor can evaporate instantly in an election campaign if they misread the mood of the people or send out bad signals.

    If Labor hold their nerve the dividends could be huge. I don’t think Turnbull can win it back at this stage, everyone’s already decided their opinion of him.

    Sorry it’s a bit of a post about nothing really. Just a sense of something huge and collective that stirs and moves as one, a kind of chaotic yet decisive groupthink, out there in the community and which politicians ignore or attempt to cynically manipulate at their peril

  44. Today’s Newspoll, published in The Australian newspaper, puts Labor 10 points ahead on a two-party preferred basis, leading the Coalition 55 per cent to 45 per cent, a four-point increase on the previous Newspoll.’

    Which is where Labor should be today, but isn’t.

  50. Interesting failure within the NewsCorpse UK franchise….

    “News Corp’s conservative digital media site Heat Street is folding in August, the company told BuzzFeed News on Thursday.

    “The operation will be restructured under the MarketWatch umbrella, with the goal of strengthening cultural, entertainment and gaming coverage,” Dow Jones, which owns the property, said in a statement. “The Heat Street brand and future content associated with the brand will be part of the MarketWatch group.”

    The Murdoch-owned outlet launched last year and was originally led by former Tory MP Louise Mensch and Noah Kotch, who recently decamped to head up Fox News’s digital efforts.

    Mensch separated from the outlet late last year.

    Heat Street, which has about 15 employees, launched as a right-of-center digital media upstart in an increasingly crowded conservative media field, taking on sites like Breitbart, the Daily Caller, IJR, and the Blaze.

    Fox News had explored acquiring Heat Street, The Wall Street Journal reported in May. Two people familiar with the matter confirmed the talks to BuzzFeed News. One of the people said that Rupert Murdoch, who controls both News Corp and 21st Century Fox, pushed for the deal, but that Fox didn’t want to take on the property, in part because of Mensch’s recent Twitter crusade.

    BuzzFeed News reported in April that Mensch, a prominent voice in an internet investigation into Russian espionage, had since Inauguration Day accused at least 210 people and organizations as being under Russian influence.”

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/stevenperlberg/heat-street-is-folding?utm_term=.otrDrPgGG#.oeYoqEQWW

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