YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor

The debut entry from a new federal poll series finds low primary support for the major parties and an unusually tight race on two-party preferred – although it would be a different story if preferences flowed as they did at last year’s election.

As reported here in early May, British-based market research giant YouGov has entered the Australian federal polling game, in conjunction with Australian communications agency Fifty Acres. After reporting attitudinal polling on a fortnightly basis over recent months, the pollster has produced its first set of voting intention numbers, which are exclusively related below.

First though, a few points about methodology. The poll is conducted through an online panel, similar to Essential Research, and indeed an increasingly dominant share of public opinion polls internationally. The polling is conducted fortnightly from Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of a bit over 1000 respondents (1125 in the case of the latest survey), drawn from its pool of survey volunteers.

With respect to voting intention, respondents are presented with a mock ballot paper featuring (together with party logos) Coalition options that vary by state, Labor, the Greens, One Nation, Nick Xenophon Team, Katter’s Australian Party, a generic option for “Christian parties”, and “other/independent”. The results are weighted not just by age, gender and region, which is standard in Australian polling, but also by education and past vote. The latter two are common in Britain but, as far as I’m aware, unique in Australia. Needless to say, this leads to two-party preferred results based on respondent allocation, rather than results from previous elections.

The results for this week’s poll are distinctive in the narrowness of the two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead at 51-49, and low primary votes for both major parties, which come in at 34% for Labor and 33% for the Coalition. Results for the minor parties are Greens 12%, One Nation 7%, Christian parties 4%, Nick Xenophon Team 3%, Katter’s Australian Party 1% and other/independent 6%.

The first thing to be noted is that Labor would record a much stronger lead of 54-46 if preferences were distributed as per the 2016 result, rather than respondent allocation. However, such is the size of the non-major party vote that this would be heavily dependent on preference flows remaining stable despite some fairly dramatic changes in vote share. The second point is that the Greens are two to three points higher than the recent form of Newspoll and Essential Research, although not Ipsos. One Nation and the Nick Xenophon Team respectively come in at 7% and 3%, which would be fairly typical coming from Essential Research, but the combined vote of 11% for everyone else is around double the equivalent figure from Newspoll and Essential Research over the past two months.

For the regular attitudinal questions, this fortnight’s poll focuses on Donald Trump, with findings that 58% consider him “erratic” and a third “unhinged” (not sure if the one response here precludes the other, or if we should combine them to conclude that nearly everybody considers him unstable or worse); that 47% think his presidency threatens to destabilise the world; that 44% feel he won’t last long; and that 52% think his use of Twitter not suitable for a world leader. The poll also records 52% saying Australia is “ready to be fully powered by renewables”, 47% considering climate change a threat to the economy, and 51% supporting the inclusion of clean coal in a clean energy target.

NOTE: Separate to this one, I have a new post that takes a detailed look at the census results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 6 of 14
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  1. shellbell @ #247 Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 3:07 pm

    Jacka A Randa
    That may be the effect but it is not the purpose and the difference matters.
    The rule is that the crown/police should only ever prosecute on the basis it has formed the view that there are reasonable prospects of conviction. It should not proceed on the basis that it has no view and leave it to the courts/juries to decide.

    That is nothing like how it works in practice.
    Cops and DPP will proceed on zero evidence.

  3. ‘That is nothing like how it works in practice.
    Cops and DPP will proceed on zero evidence.’

    Yeah right Bemused.
    How come you’re an expert on everything, even those areas where your ignorance sticks out like dog’s balls?

  4. adrian @ #253 Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 3:35 pm

    ‘That is nothing like how it works in practice.
    Cops and DPP will proceed on zero evidence.’
    Yeah right Bemused.
    How come you’re an expert on everything, even those areas where your ignorance sticks out like dog’s balls?

    Personal experience. Seems I’ve been around a bit longer than you junior, and accumulated more experience.

  6. adrian @ #255 Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 3:41 pm

    Yeah, if you say so Bemused.
    Pointless arguing with you.

    I have had several encounters with the law myself and one of my sons was charged a few years ago because he refused to give evidence in a case where he, along with a hundred or so others, had witnessed a bit of an altercation in which an off duty cop was injured.
    The judge threw it out for lack of evidence but of course he had already been punished by all his legal expenses which far outweighed the penalty inflicted on the actual perpetrators.
    That’s how it works.
    Oh, btw, it was the off duty cop and his mates who started the altercation, one even admitting it in court, and no action taken against them.

  9. I am pretty sure that there is a greater willlingness for prosecutions to be brought in respect of uncorroborated complaints of sexual abuse than used to be the case but the DPP would probably seek some assurance from investigating police as to their belief about the complainant’s accounts.

  11. Bemused, perhaps you can explain how your experience taught you that Bateau Bay was west of Wyong, rather than 10 kms east, and that I live in the middle of the ocean. Your experience is worth diddly squat, since you are utterly incapable of learning from it. As we all have come to know, you are always right, even when you a totally and utterly wrong. You are a standing joke.

  13. yabba88 @ #261 Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    Bemused, perhaps you can explain how your experience taught you that Bateau Bay was west of Wyong, rather than 10 kms east, and that I live in the middle of the ocean. Your experience is worth diddly squat, since you are utterly incapable of learning from it. As we all have come to know, you are always right, even when you a totally and utterly wrong. You are a standing joke.

    Time you got over that. I admitted I was in error. My recollection of the alignment of the coastline was wrong and I should have checked. Big deal! You should have had a good laugh at my expense. Why does it still cause you so much pain?

  14. Turnbull giving the Governor general position to Abbott (a man whose two defining traits are vengefulness and a willingness to trample over established customs and decency) would be the ultimate Trumble cunning plan that would be announced in the morning and backfire in time for the 6:00 news.

    Abbott’s first act as GG would be to dismiss Turnbull as PM.

  18. voice endeavour @ #264 Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    Turnbull giving the Governor general position to Abbott (a man whose two defining traits are vengefulness and a willingness to trample over established customs and decency) would be the ultimate Trumble cunning plan that would be announced in the morning and backfire in time for the 6:00 news.
    Abbott’s first act as GG would be to dismiss Turnbull as PM.

    Appointing Abbott as GG would spark public outrage.
    An incoming Labor Govt should dismiss him as soon as it could be organised with the Queen.

  19. It wouldn’t take until 6pm ‘VE. It would be acknowledged as a bigger fuck up than Sir Duke Prince Phil and lead to close enough to open rebellion before Trumble got past Ab-.

    It’s such a stupid idea that Trumble is probably thinking seriously about doing it.

  23. If Brian Trumble gave Tony the ‘Aborted’ the GG gig, I’d be getting out in the streets to protest. It is bad enough the Libs have a penchant of giving it to ex-military types, but ex-bruiser, unfit-for-any-post, Abbott, would be the ultimate insult to the Australian people.

  28. BBCBreaking: Australian Cardinal George Pell, accused of sex offences, says he will take leave from Vatican to clear his name bbc.in/2t3gADn

  29. I’m amazed Pell evaded being caught in the CSA Royal Commission dragnet but was eventually brought low by the Victoria Police!

  30. Ratsak

    It’s such a stupid idea that Trumble is probably thinking seriously about doing it.

    Turnbull has demonstrated amply that he is prepared to sacrifice things that are of long term importance to the nation such as the NBN and required action on the environment in attempts to secure short term political advantage.

    So neutralising a political rival who he knows is completely unsuitable to the position of Governor-General is no ‘biggie’ for him.

  31. Elaugaufein
    Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 12:33 pm
    A membership vote would probably elect Ludlam or maybe Bandt depending on who put their hand up, they have the largest positive membership wide profiles by leagues (and fairly safe seats). I can’t see how that helps NSW Greens.

    Bandt voted against the suspension.

  32. Doyley
    Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 1:57 pm
    Abbott actually complimented Bill Shorten and labor for their continued bipartisanship on national security and also said labor was stronger than the Turnbull government re China.

    “The enemy of my enemy .. ” sort of thing.

    Cheers.

    I don’t want Abbott to go away. Not until his work is finished : )

  33. australian: Fears Abbott attack damaging party bit.ly/2s1vLeQ

    latingle: Just as well major national conservative newspapers haven’t been encouraging him for the past two years twitter.com/australian/sta…

  34. Bandt voted against the suspension.

    Yup. The NSW push for a membership vote on the leadership isn’t to install Lee. It’s to punt the Black Wiggle.

    Bandt by showing Rhiannon a bit of support would have placed himself nicely for such a vote if it was to happen. Which it won’t.

    Poor old greens have to process that their protest party has been taken over by careerists like the poor old Dems were.

    A protest party base and a deal making parliamentary wing is not a formula for happy ever after.

  36. ‘I don’t want Abbott to go away. Not until his work is finished : )’

    Abbott’s work will never be finished, as long as he draws breath…

  37. adrian @ #286 Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 5:14 pm

    ‘I don’t want Abbott to go away. Not until his work is finished : )’
    Abbott’s work will never be finished, as long as he draws breath…

    I am just incredulous that anyone on his side of politics can see any benefit in putting up with him. He should be out on his ear.

  40. I’m definitely not a Pell fan but I’d be very sceptical of convicting anyone based solely of eyewitness testimony of something that happened 45 years ago when they were children.

  41. I remember reading a profile of the Black Wiggle and noticing how many of his family members were, or had been, employed in the party.

    If that happened in one of the majors, of course, posters like peg would call it nepotism and suggest it was a Bad Thing.

  43. Bemused and Adrian,
    I’ve been loving his work this week. L-NP wrecking ball. If I can ever take him seriously again, I will, but in my view Turnbull is more dangerous.
    Also, I’m not a piss-on-your-grave kind of guy. I’ll be kinder to Turnbull once he is gone too.

  44. Abbott for G-G yeah right. At the same time Turnbull could nominate Putin for a knighthood.

    The Crazy Right will try anything to make life tough for Turnbull.

  47. Then we have Newman the bloke who wasted the biggest majority in our history telling the PM he should resign. I think the Crazy Right is getting worried that Turnbull is gaining some traction.
    It’s pretty obvious the LNP Right is a bigger threat to Turnbull than ShortenInc.

  48. DIOG – I totally agree. In the absence of concrete evidence, like DNA, I don’t know how one gets to beyond reasonable doubt.

  49. Diogenes
    ‘ I’d be very sceptical of convicting anyone based solely of eyewitness testimony of something that happened 45 years ago when they were children. ‘

    How many individuals with similar evidence would it take to convince you?

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