YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor

The debut entry from a new federal poll series finds low primary support for the major parties and an unusually tight race on two-party preferred – although it would be a different story if preferences flowed as they did at last year’s election.

As reported here in early May, British-based market research giant YouGov has entered the Australian federal polling game, in conjunction with Australian communications agency Fifty Acres. After reporting attitudinal polling on a fortnightly basis over recent months, the pollster has produced its first set of voting intention numbers, which are exclusively related below.

First though, a few points about methodology. The poll is conducted through an online panel, similar to Essential Research, and indeed an increasingly dominant share of public opinion polls internationally. The polling is conducted fortnightly from Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of a bit over 1000 respondents (1125 in the case of the latest survey), drawn from its pool of survey volunteers.

With respect to voting intention, respondents are presented with a mock ballot paper featuring (together with party logos) Coalition options that vary by state, Labor, the Greens, One Nation, Nick Xenophon Team, Katter’s Australian Party, a generic option for “Christian parties”, and “other/independent”. The results are weighted not just by age, gender and region, which is standard in Australian polling, but also by education and past vote. The latter two are common in Britain but, as far as I’m aware, unique in Australia. Needless to say, this leads to two-party preferred results based on respondent allocation, rather than results from previous elections.

The results for this week’s poll are distinctive in the narrowness of the two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead at 51-49, and low primary votes for both major parties, which come in at 34% for Labor and 33% for the Coalition. Results for the minor parties are Greens 12%, One Nation 7%, Christian parties 4%, Nick Xenophon Team 3%, Katter’s Australian Party 1% and other/independent 6%.

The first thing to be noted is that Labor would record a much stronger lead of 54-46 if preferences were distributed as per the 2016 result, rather than respondent allocation. However, such is the size of the non-major party vote that this would be heavily dependent on preference flows remaining stable despite some fairly dramatic changes in vote share. The second point is that the Greens are two to three points higher than the recent form of Newspoll and Essential Research, although not Ipsos. One Nation and the Nick Xenophon Team respectively come in at 7% and 3%, which would be fairly typical coming from Essential Research, but the combined vote of 11% for everyone else is around double the equivalent figure from Newspoll and Essential Research over the past two months.

For the regular attitudinal questions, this fortnight’s poll focuses on Donald Trump, with findings that 58% consider him “erratic” and a third “unhinged” (not sure if the one response here precludes the other, or if we should combine them to conclude that nearly everybody considers him unstable or worse); that 47% think his presidency threatens to destabilise the world; that 44% feel he won’t last long; and that 52% think his use of Twitter not suitable for a world leader. The poll also records 52% saying Australia is “ready to be fully powered by renewables”, 47% considering climate change a threat to the economy, and 51% supporting the inclusion of clean coal in a clean energy target.

NOTE: Separate to this one, I have a new post that takes a detailed look at the census results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [Monalisa Perez, 19, told investigators Pedro Ruiz III wanted to make a video of her shooting a bullet into a book he was holding against his chest, the criminal complaint filed by the Norman County Sheriff Jeremy Thornton said.

    The couple’s three-year-old daughter and almost 30 others were watching as Perez fired the gun from about 30 centimetres away from Ruiz’s chest, the BBC reported.]

    That poor child.
    Some people should just never be parents FFS.

  2. adrian @ #651 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 1:16 pm

    Monalisa Perez, 19, told investigators Pedro Ruiz III wanted to make a video of her shooting a bullet into a book he was holding against his chest, the criminal complaint filed by the Norman County Sheriff Jeremy Thornton said.
    The couple’s three-year-old daughter and almost 30 others were watching as Perez fired the gun from about 30 centimetres away from Ruiz’s chest, the BBC reported.

    That poor child.
    Some people should just never be parents FFS.

    Did she miss the book or did the bullet go right through it?
    Or did the whack in the chest from the book as the bullet hit it kill him?
    Only in America!

  3. So much for clean coal technology. From https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/17/06/29/2012207/75-billion-kemper-power-plant-suspends-coal-gasification?utm_source=slashdot&utm_medium=twitter

    $7.5 Billion Kemper Power Plant Suspends Coal Gasification
    romanval writes:
    A coal gasification plant in Mississippi is iswitching to natural gas after 5 years of delays and $4 billion cost overrun. Megan Geuss writes via Ars Technica: “The Kemper County plant was supposed to be a cutting-edge demonstration of the power of ‘clean coal,’ and, despite running five years late and more than $4 billion over budget, Kemper was able to start testing its coal gasification operations late last year. The plant used a chemical process to break down lignite coal into synthesis gas, or ‘syngas,’ which was then fed into a generator. The syngas burns cleaner than pulverized lignite coal does. In addition, emissions were caught by a carbon capture system and delivered to a nearby oil field to help with oil extraction. That, Southern and Mississippi Power said, would reduce the greenhouse emissions of burning lignite by up to 65 percent. But with only 200 days of gasification operations under its belt, Kemper identified more issues with its technology, including design flaws that caused leaks and ash buildup.”

  5. @ Voice Endeavour
    Friday, June 30, 2017 at 12:18 pm

    The decommissioning of units at Muja was discussed at the time. There are 8 turbines at Synergy and only 4 of them are being decommissioned, the other 4 will remain in service for the foreseeable future.

    Disclosure of interest: I work for a company with contracts at Muja and am actively involved in the contract.

  7. poroti @ #654 Friday, June 30th, 2017 – 1:23 pm

    Ah yes, Truffles’ Orwell inspired book “Down and Out in Vaucluse and Point Piper.”

    I’d go with “The Tale of Two Liberal PMs”!
    “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way—in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only”.

  9. a r @ #658 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 1:34 pm

    Simon Katich @ #641 Friday, June 30th, 2017 – 12:46 pm

    **One less recruit for the NRA:**
    Maybe the Left should get on board with social darwinism.

    Not applicable in this case as the idiots have already reproduced.
    How stupid do you have to be to think a book is going to protect against a .50 caliber round? Even cursory research shows that a book isn’t going to stop a .357.

    Too dumb to even try testing it first.

  10. a r Friday, June 30, 2017 at 1:34 pm

    How stupid do you have to be to think a book is going to protect against a .50 caliber round? Even cursory research shows that a book isn’t going to stop a .357.

    They should have used the text book from my old Organisation Behaviour 151 class. That book was so dense nothing could get through it. I think the authors were Kast and Rosenzweig.

  12. “Commission on child sex abuse a depressing example of populist politics
    PAUL KELLY, EDITOR-AT-LARGE TheAustralian12:00AM November 17, 2012

    THE dismal, populist and doomed quality of Australian governance has been on display this week with Julia Gillard announcing an in-principle royal commission into child sexual abuse, a panicked Tony Abbott falling into line and an ignorant media offering cheer upon cheer.
    Rarely has an Australian goverment embarked on such a sensitive and vast project in profound ignorance of what it was doing, with virtually no serious policy consideration and driven entirely by politics.

    This is the way Australia now works. The quest is for popular approval, moral legitimacy and gesture politics. Labor took this decision flying completely blind. Gillard’s media conference last Monday was a serial exercise in populist politics and policy ignorance. She knew next to nothing about the royal commission she was announcing. What counted was framing herself as the arch opponent of this “incredibly evil thing” determined to expose those who have “averted their eyes” and allow victims to “tell their story”.

    Gillard’s decision is classic shoot now and pass the mess to others to sort out, in this case, Attorney-General Nicola Roxon. This decision has plunged Australia into a multi-jurisdictional, multi-institutional, state-church, high-cost shambles where nobody knows how the massive expectations of victims can be satisfied.

    It is, however, a perfect fit into Gillard’s political strategy. For Labor, that’s what counts. The media loved it – the combination of a moral crusade, a cast of victims and coming systemic dismantling of the Catholic Church.”

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/commission-on-child-sex-abuse-a-depressing-example-of-populist-politics/news-story/e2b4585db900873efa381bb5f8a94f39

  14. TPOF

    … Abbott (and his predecessor as PM) did not. Ex-PMs and aggrieved ex-leaders who hang around think they are bigger than the party …

    Yep, and definitely NOT Dignified.

  15. ctar1 @ #664 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 2:11 pm

    TPOF

    … Abbott (and his predecessor as PM) did not. Ex-PMs and aggrieved ex-leaders who hang around think they are bigger than the party …

    Yep, and definitely NOT Dignified.

    So Rudd should have resigned?
    Good idea, we would have been spared the embarrassment that was the Gillard Prime-ministership and now be in the second term of a Shorten Prime-ministership.

  16. I must agree that person who fired the bullet into a book on his chest was incredibly dumb. A 50 calibre round will go through a brick wall, or a steel car body. Way more dangerous than a normal pistol round.

  17. socrates @ #666 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 2:16 pm

    I must agree that person who fired the bullet into a book on his chest was incredibly dumb. A 50 calibre round will go through a brick wall, or a steel car body. Way more dangerous than a normal pistol round.

    Not simply related to the calibre of the bullet.
    It looks like to .50 calibre pistol round is simply a scaled up .45. Penetrating ability will depend on a number of factors including the load and nature of the projectile.

  18. Speaking of courage, regardless of the politics, it takes a bit of courage for someone in the Liberal party at present to stand up and acknowledge they are gay. Good for them. Maybe it will shame the right wingers into respecting their right to marry.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-pride-pyne-adviser-leads-new-liberal-party-gay-pride-group-20170629-gx18vo.html
    If on average around 4-5% of the population are gay, there should be 3 or 4 Liberal MPs and Senators who are gay. Will the political climate ever be right for them to be able to freely acknowledge their identity the way Penny Wong or Adam Bandt have done for years?

  19. Poroti – It’s been said about Malcolm that he’s the only person to ever go from rags to riches while living in the same postcode.

  20. Bemused
    No the 50 calibre pistol round is much more powerful than a scaled up 45. More like a scaled up 44 magnum round. A 50 calibre round has way more velocity and hence KE than a 45 calibre (2000J versus 540J). It is more comparable to a military rifle like a 7.62 (2070J). Like I said they can go through brick walls. Other things being equal the KE is proportional to the calibre cubed and the muzzle velocity squared.

  21. “Commission on child sex abuse a depressing example of populist politics
    PAUL KELLY, EDITOR-AT-LARGE TheAustralian12:00AM November 17, 2012

    I’m sure that Kelly and his mates said something completely different about the “get unions” RC. We now know which RC is having the most profound effect on Australian society.

  23. socrates @ #670 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 2:30 pm

    Bemused
    No the 50 calibre pistol round is much more powerful than a scaled up 45. More like a scaled up 44 magnum round. A 50 calibre round has way more velocity and hence KE than a 45 calibre (2000J versus 540J). It is more comparable to a military rifle like a 7.62 (2070J). Like I said they can go through brick walls. Other things being equal the KE is proportional to the calibre cubed and the muzzle velocity squared.

    Just looked up the performance of all.
    7.26 NATO is still way out in front, but you are right that the .50 packs a lot more punch than the .45.
    This is complicated by there being a whole lot of different .45 pistol rounds.
    And of course the .50 round for 50 cal machine guns and sniper rifles is even further out in front.
    I wouldn’t stand in the way of any of them!

  24. David Marr and Gerard Henderson will be on Insiders Sunday morning. No doubt the subject of Pell will come up. Should be interesting.

  25. Yes you are right it is complex, and different tables I looked up seemed to say different things too, but anyway I think we are agreed what he did was madness.

  26. bemused @ #667 Friday, June 30th, 2017 – 2:22 pm

    Penetrating ability will depend on a number of factors including the load and nature of the projectile.

    While this is true, if you look up the specs for the Desert Eagle you’ll find it only accepts one format of .50 cal, with only a small handful of variants available (all of which are high-velocity and comparably powerful). Specifically, this one.

    It has 2-3x the energy of .357 magnum rounds (which punch through books with ease), and 3-4x the energy of your typical .45. I wouldn’t want to stand in front of any of those, but if I had to pick one, the .50 Desert Eagle round would rank dead last.

    Here’s a nice ” rel=”nofollow”>comparison graphic.

  27. “What financial institution would want to touch “clean coal” with a barge pole?”

    Everyone I knew in power engineering knew clean coal was going to be a dud from day one. The engineers and “research groups” that took money for it were shameless. I am still less than happy that Labor in government flushed taxpayer dollars down that hole.

  29. **there should be 3 or 4 Liberal MPs and Senators who are gay.**
    17% of Coalition MPs and Senators are women. The Coalition are representative of something, but it aint the diversity of the Australian population.

  32. bk @ #672 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 2:42 pm

    What financial institution would want to touch “clean coal” with a barge pole?
    https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/06/28/breaking-southern-co-officially-yanks-plug-kemper-clean-coal-power-plant-warns-it-may-recognize-loss-3-4-billion

    No-one in their right mind would put money in coal mines or coal generation these days – clean or otherwise. I believe this is the second such “clean coal” plant in the US that has ended up being converted to natural gas … which would of course have been a much faster, cheaper and cleaner alternative in the first place!

    Australia is just so backwards on this issue, thanks to our idiotic government. It wouldn’t surprise me if we ended up being the last significant coal-burning country in the world, and it would serve us right if the rest of the world put trade sanctions on us for being so bloody stupid.

  35. Bemused

    So Rudd should have resigned?

    Clumsy goal shift effort.

    I didn’t suggest that at all.

    What I said was his behavior was not dignified. You stated several nights ago that KRudd should have been in “Mega’s” A list of leaders who were deposed and behaved with dignity . He did not.

    End correspondence re’ this /full stop

  37. ItzaDream
    Friday, June 30, 2017 at 10:43 am
    Anyway, who wants a cake even? I heard Lily Tomlin at Enmore, bringing the house down with ‘Who wants to be like them“.

    (Anyone else into Frankie and Grace? Very funny, and some serious issues raised. I think I mentioned this before without a bite.)
    *********************************************************
    A very good series, I have almost finished series 3.
    Lots of good issues raised in a creative way.

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