As reported here in early May, British-based market research giant YouGov has entered the Australian federal polling game, in conjunction with Australian communications agency Fifty Acres. After reporting attitudinal polling on a fortnightly basis over recent months, the pollster has produced its first set of voting intention numbers, which are exclusively related below.
First though, a few points about methodology. The poll is conducted through an online panel, similar to Essential Research, and indeed an increasingly dominant share of public opinion polls internationally. The polling is conducted fortnightly from Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of a bit over 1000 respondents (1125 in the case of the latest survey), drawn from its pool of survey volunteers.
With respect to voting intention, respondents are presented with a mock ballot paper featuring (together with party logos) Coalition options that vary by state, Labor, the Greens, One Nation, Nick Xenophon Team, Katter’s Australian Party, a generic option for “Christian parties”, and “other/independent”. The results are weighted not just by age, gender and region, which is standard in Australian polling, but also by education and past vote. The latter two are common in Britain but, as far as I’m aware, unique in Australia. Needless to say, this leads to two-party preferred results based on respondent allocation, rather than results from previous elections.
The results for this week’s poll are distinctive in the narrowness of the two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead at 51-49, and low primary votes for both major parties, which come in at 34% for Labor and 33% for the Coalition. Results for the minor parties are Greens 12%, One Nation 7%, Christian parties 4%, Nick Xenophon Team 3%, Katter’s Australian Party 1% and other/independent 6%.
The first thing to be noted is that Labor would record a much stronger lead of 54-46 if preferences were distributed as per the 2016 result, rather than respondent allocation. However, such is the size of the non-major party vote that this would be heavily dependent on preference flows remaining stable despite some fairly dramatic changes in vote share. The second point is that the Greens are two to three points higher than the recent form of Newspoll and Essential Research, although not Ipsos. One Nation and the Nick Xenophon Team respectively come in at 7% and 3%, which would be fairly typical coming from Essential Research, but the combined vote of 11% for everyone else is around double the equivalent figure from Newspoll and Essential Research over the past two months.
For the regular attitudinal questions, this fortnight’s poll focuses on Donald Trump, with findings that 58% consider him “erratic” and a third “unhinged” (not sure if the one response here precludes the other, or if we should combine them to conclude that nearly everybody considers him unstable or worse); that 47% think his presidency threatens to destabilise the world; that 44% feel he won’t last long; and that 52% think his use of Twitter not suitable for a world leader. The poll also records 52% saying Australia is “ready to be fully powered by renewables”, 47% considering climate change a threat to the economy, and 51% supporting the inclusion of clean coal in a clean energy target.
NOTE: Separate to this one, I have a new post that takes a detailed look at the census results.
Oh dear the monkey pod is not doing well in the polling stakes.
Reachtel 52-48 Labor.
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2017/06/30/voters-back-turnbull-over-abbott.html
Who are these mythical baker’s?
I do vaguely remember story from somewhere about a baker and SSM. All I thought at the time was “Why aren’t you a carpenter?”
And 27%!!! LEGEND! Go Tony! I can’t understand why every ALP supporter wouldn’t be cheering his path of destruction through the L-NP?
BK, is your property bigger than the Vatican?
Looking at primary votes this may be respondent allocated, would be sweet if someone disects the numbers as per last election flows
gorkay king @ #602 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 12:13 pm
Odd, that Reachtel appears to have asked many more questions than what I was asked.
Surely they were not running multiple polls in the same week?
I am constantly astounded at how competitive the L-NP remain.
BK – I thought Malcolm would try to “take out” Tones by trying to take away his pre-selection. But surely, if he tries, Tones’ right-wing nutbag troops will take out Malcolm. Looks to me like Tones is secure in his northern redoubt (minefields, barbed wire, crazy blue-rinse garrison troops). Which means, of course, that Malcolm has absolutely no chance at the next election.
BK @ #598 Friday, June 30th, 2017 – 12:08 pm
Could be different polls. Reachtel has become the go to pollster for commissioned polls.
I am constantly astounded at how competitive the L-NP remain.
Could be different polls. Reachtel has become the go to pollster for commissioned polls.
Thanks for the Reachtel data guys.
Also, nearly 2 months late, but had others noticed this?
19% of coal capacity in WA announced to close, half in September this year, the other half in April next year.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/wa-to-close-muja-coal-units-in-first-signs-of-major-shift-to-renewables-58637/
That puts the count at 10 of the 14 most polluting plants that existed as of 2011 have closed, or will have by April.
The Coalition has a primary vote of 33.9%; Labor 33.1%; The Greens 9.6%; One Nation 9.1%; Others 7.2% and 7.1% of voters are undecided.
Wow.
How many voters out there say they prefer Malcolm as PM because they think he’s the best Liberal to be PM (rather than the best PM). In other words, they’re terrified of the rest of the pack?
That was odd. I think Gorky and I put the PB servers in a deadly embrace.
Question – surely, if the LNP has a primary of 33.9 (I can’t believe that!) they are in diabolical trouble.
Leadership polls like that don’t mean much. I would prefer Turnbull to Abbott as well. (Though I am a partisan hack and would love Abbott to be PM and implode again too:))
Victoria
The whole statement. Why does a statutory officer holder need to issue a statement saying he is going to do his job?
@ Gorkay King – my standard of Labour getting 83% from Greens and 47% from anyone else (and making no attempt to allocate unsures) gives 52.45% to Labor and 47.55 to Coalition, which rounds to Reachtel’s numbers
On the SkyNews reachTEL poll, also see the video clips in these tweets
The Sky News / ReachTel poll shows Coalition voters have ‘very little appetite’ for changing leaders
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/880609047816175616
the Sky News / ReachTel poll shows the Coalition is still trailing Labor
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/880609554668572672
The Sky News / ReachTel poll shows there is ‘solid support’ for legalising same-sex marriage
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/880610436063744000
bemused @ #600 Friday, June 30th, 2017 – 12:10 pm
Interesting, though I’d want to see performance and endurance metrics. The general trend with flash memory has been that as storage density increases (except as when the increase is achieve through a process-shrink), both endurance and performance tend to decrease.
@Question
I agree. It is frustrating how the gap doesn’t blow out considering how inept this government is. I think people are switched off and not paying attention.
Similar low primaries for the major parties as the YouGov-50 Acre.
–I am constantly astounded at how competitive the L-NP remain.–
Shhhh. You will wake the Rex.
@ Everyone – remember that the primaries are 33.9/92.9 and 33.1/92.9. They are not 33.9% and 33.1%
@ voice
Thanks. I wish Reachtel presented results without undecideds, makes it look like dogs breakfast
Good afternoon all,
On the primary votes labor is up 2.6% and the coalition down 0.1% from the last sky news / Reachtel poll in May which had labor 53/47.
On the primary figures as stated ( ie undecided excluded ) I get 53/47 to labor last election. How the undecided fall if pressed to select either or may well alter the breakdown.
Disclaimer : I am simply enthusiastic amateur.
Cheers and a great day to all.
a r @ #621 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 12:25 pm
My obvious error was Terrabits should have been Terrabytes.
I know of no-one who has ever had a problem with it. But of course statistics across the whole user base may tell a different story.
Anyway, I think for notebooks, hard disks are now dead. I certainly wouldn’t buy one.
Anton and Gorkay.
I would like to think L-NP 33.9% would be enough.
And oh yeah, my partisan hack would love the return of Abbott. And in a strange way I think he is more honest than Turnbull. The reason being that the CPG all do that mind melding trick where Turnbull stands for whatever you would like him to, which is impossible.
BTW,
Undecided voters are down approx 3% from last Reachtel with labor getting most of those.
IE fewer voters undecided and those who have firmed appear to have mostly picked labor.
Cheers.
One less recruit for the NRA:
antonbruckner11 – L/NP primary won’t be that low in a real election, seems the raw ReachTEL figures don’t exclude the undecided. We’re going to need William or Kevin to do the calculations on the last election TPP too.
HA! Hate to say it, but I actually like Rex. Gives me a chance to say nice things about Shorten.
question @ #633 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 12:37 pm
Rex is entertaining like Truthy used to be.
Good point. The undecideds.
Shellbell
For eg. Paul Kelly and Miranda Devine probably needed reminding how the DPP goes about doing its job
“”Odd, that Reachtel appears to have asked many more questions than what I was asked.
Surely they were not running multiple polls in the same week?””
They appear to be pushing for Charities to contact you!, is this another way for them to make a buck?.
1934pc @ #637 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 12:40 pm
I hadn’t thought of that. Anyway, I had heard it before so just hung up when that started.
Love my SSD drives.
Use them for my OS disks. Speeds up the system without fiddling with RAID. I still need HDD’s for the cheap acreage they offer for my mountains of crap. Looking forward to when I can justify having it all on SSD.
Perhaps a ch7 Reachtel tonight?
Bemused at 11.47 “I have had enough of weddings”
Had enough/too many of your own, or of other people’s?
[And tera only has one r, btw. It’s from the Greek for monster, not the Latin for earth. But thanks for the interesting news about the “monster” chips.]
bemused @ #606 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 12:16 pm
Remember last time both Sky and Seven released a Reachtel poll on the same day.
**One less recruit for the NRA:**
Maybe the Left should get on board with social darwinism.
Turnbull doing the log cabin to white house story again?
citizen @ #631 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 12:34 pm
Darwin strikes again!
jack a randa @ #641 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 12:45 pm
2 of my own and that’s enough.
Thanks for furthering my education in the classics. I had just never noticed that about ‘tera’, I was completely oblivious.
Now how many times have I made that mistake? 😀
“Better get a bucket.” – Monty Python.
Simon Katich,
“Shhhh. You will wake the Rex.”
Would that be the Tediousaurus Rex?
acerbic conehead @ #648 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 1:04 pm
Very good!
There really is nothing more revolting than politicians commodifying their life stories and selling them to the public. Turnbull has no self-respect.
P.S. I hope the little kids are now getting psychological councilling.