YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor

The debut entry from a new federal poll series finds low primary support for the major parties and an unusually tight race on two-party preferred – although it would be a different story if preferences flowed as they did at last year’s election.

As reported here in early May, British-based market research giant YouGov has entered the Australian federal polling game, in conjunction with Australian communications agency Fifty Acres. After reporting attitudinal polling on a fortnightly basis over recent months, the pollster has produced its first set of voting intention numbers, which are exclusively related below.

First though, a few points about methodology. The poll is conducted through an online panel, similar to Essential Research, and indeed an increasingly dominant share of public opinion polls internationally. The polling is conducted fortnightly from Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of a bit over 1000 respondents (1125 in the case of the latest survey), drawn from its pool of survey volunteers.

With respect to voting intention, respondents are presented with a mock ballot paper featuring (together with party logos) Coalition options that vary by state, Labor, the Greens, One Nation, Nick Xenophon Team, Katter’s Australian Party, a generic option for “Christian parties”, and “other/independent”. The results are weighted not just by age, gender and region, which is standard in Australian polling, but also by education and past vote. The latter two are common in Britain but, as far as I’m aware, unique in Australia. Needless to say, this leads to two-party preferred results based on respondent allocation, rather than results from previous elections.

The results for this week’s poll are distinctive in the narrowness of the two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead at 51-49, and low primary votes for both major parties, which come in at 34% for Labor and 33% for the Coalition. Results for the minor parties are Greens 12%, One Nation 7%, Christian parties 4%, Nick Xenophon Team 3%, Katter’s Australian Party 1% and other/independent 6%.

The first thing to be noted is that Labor would record a much stronger lead of 54-46 if preferences were distributed as per the 2016 result, rather than respondent allocation. However, such is the size of the non-major party vote that this would be heavily dependent on preference flows remaining stable despite some fairly dramatic changes in vote share. The second point is that the Greens are two to three points higher than the recent form of Newspoll and Essential Research, although not Ipsos. One Nation and the Nick Xenophon Team respectively come in at 7% and 3%, which would be fairly typical coming from Essential Research, but the combined vote of 11% for everyone else is around double the equivalent figure from Newspoll and Essential Research over the past two months.

For the regular attitudinal questions, this fortnight’s poll focuses on Donald Trump, with findings that 58% consider him “erratic” and a third “unhinged” (not sure if the one response here precludes the other, or if we should combine them to conclude that nearly everybody considers him unstable or worse); that 47% think his presidency threatens to destabilise the world; that 44% feel he won’t last long; and that 52% think his use of Twitter not suitable for a world leader. The poll also records 52% saying Australia is “ready to be fully powered by renewables”, 47% considering climate change a threat to the economy, and 51% supporting the inclusion of clean coal in a clean energy target.

NOTE: Separate to this one, I have a new post that takes a detailed look at the census results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. The Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, a former one-time ally of Tony Abbott’s, has joined the defence minister Marise Payne in publicly rebuking Abbott for his latest undermining of Coalition policy.

    She joins the growing pushback from Liberal moderates, including the social services minister, Christian Porter, who this week rubbished claims the Coalition government had lurched to the left under Malcolm Turnbull.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/30/liberal-senators-round-on-abbott-criticising-him-for-trying-to-rewrite-history?CMP=soc_568

  4. Anyway, who wants a cake even? I heard Lily Tomlin at Enmore, bringing the house down with ‘Who wants to be like them“.

    (Anyone else into Frankie and Grace? Very funny, and some serious issues raised. I think I mentioned this before without a bite.)

  5. Itzadream
    I was reflecting on reasons why people choose to hang onto having beliefs and faith within institutions.
    Even the Catholic church has moved on from hell and brimstone sermonising

  6. PnoenixRED
    Religion – it’s given people hope in a world torn apart by religion.

    Yes, indeed. Jon Stewart nails it, as usual.

  7. The Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, a former one-time ally of Tony Abbott’s, has joined the defence minister Marise Payne in publicly rebuking Abbott for his latest undermining of Coalition policy.

    Abbott is ging nuclear in his own way…attempting to blast his way back into the leadership. He’s a great asset to Labor. As long as he remained PM, Labor were odds-on to win the last election. He’s doing his best to help Labor win the next one.

  8. **And isn’t sexual harassment a form of flaunting your sexuality amongst other things.**
    I will give two examples.
    The boys in the Erko cafe were chatting to each other (and some girls – I wont use the term) at the table. Some were loudly boasting about a conquest – ‘I got a black one – giggles’. I didnt feel harrassed.
    The waiter at a well known Thai restaurant in Adelaide sits on my lap and shows me a photo of his black conquest at a recent mardigras. The conquest in the photo was dressed in tight bike pants only. I didnt feel harassed. But another certainly and rightfully may have. I got the feeling the waiter knew I wouldn’t be offended and it became the entertainment for the rest of the table. But he ran a high risk.

  9. Even more common is for the couple to go to the bakery TOGETHER to discuss with the baker the type of cake they would like.

    This is how a gay couple is “outed” by homophobic bakers, from what I’ve read about goings-on overseas.

  10. I’ve forgotten who posted the beached whales – thanks.

    I wrote a name on each whale before putting a print of it on the ‘fridge.

  14. Yes, my friend is a serious believer.

    She recently went on a pilgrimage to all the places of significance to Jesus’ life – it cost her tens of thousands of dollars once you factor in all the “relics” she brought back with her.

    The scary thing is that she isn’t actually unhinged in other ways. She is a fully functioning member of society; a stalwart of the local volunteering brigade, has raised 5 lovely children and, provided you stay away from the subject of religion, is a charming, kind, generous and friendly person.

    But mention Islam, insult the Pope, or remind her about paedophilia in the Catholic Church and off she goes …

  18. 3AW693: Tony Shaw: Abbott is destroying the party. Sack him.

    Neil: You can’t just sack him! The constitution doesn’t allow it.

    Tony: Find a way.

  19. bemused @ #547 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 10:36 am

    markjs @ #530 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 10:20 am

    Bemused
    Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 5:21 pm
    “I am just incredulous that anyone on his side of politics can see any benefit in putting up with him. He should be out on his ear.”
    Very well put ..that’s exactly what I thought when that treacherous bastard Rudd commenced his disgraceful campaign to undermine Julia Gillard’s PMship..

    And what I thought about the treacherous Gillard. The ‘loyal’ deputy with the stiletto.

    She left Parliament when she lost the leadership.

    Abbott (and his predecessor as PM) did not. Ex-PMs and aggrieved ex-leaders who hang around think they are bigger than the party that got them to the career heights they achieved and will wreak vengeance for having their true worth under-appreciated by the organisation that they politically killed and maimed to get to the top of.

  21. TPOF

    Bemused is like Chinda63’s friend. He is convinced he knows the ‘truth’ and nothing will shake his belief.

  22. chinda63 @ #564 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 11:08 am

    Yes, my friend is a serious believer.
    She recently went on a pilgrimage to all the places of significance to Jesus’ life – it cost her tens of thousands of dollars once you factor in all the “relics” she brought back with her.
    The scary thing is that she isn’t actually unhinged in other ways. She is a fully functioning member of society; a stalwart of the local volunteering brigade, has raised 5 lovely children and, provided you stay away from the subject of religion, is a charming, kind, generous and friendly person.
    But mention Islam, insult the Pope, or remind her about paedophilia in the Catholic Church and off she goes …

    Have the kids emerged ‘normal’ or are they infected too?

  23. tpof @ #569 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 11:19 am

    bemused @ #547 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 10:36 am

    markjs @ #530 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 10:20 am

    Bemused
    Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 5:21 pm
    “I am just incredulous that anyone on his side of politics can see any benefit in putting up with him. He should be out on his ear.”
    Very well put ..that’s exactly what I thought when that treacherous bastard Rudd commenced his disgraceful campaign to undermine Julia Gillard’s PMship..

    And what I thought about the treacherous Gillard. The ‘loyal’ deputy with the stiletto.

    She left Parliament when she lost the leadership.
    Abbott (and his predecessor as PM) did not. Ex-PMs and aggrieved ex-leaders who hang around think they are bigger than the party that got them to the career heights they achieved and will wreak vengeance for having their true worth under-appreciated by the organisation that they politically killed and maimed to get to the top of.

    Yeah, right.
    If Rudd had left the Parliament when he lost the leadership, there would not have been a Gillard Government.
    On reflection, that may have been for the best, as we would by now be into the second term of a Shorten Government.

  25. **He is convinced he knows the ‘truth’ **
    I noticed Bemused apologised for a comment to GG the other day without any prompting.

    I am happy to let Bemused flaunt his personality – but I probably wouldnt bake him a wedding cake.

  27. lizzie @ #571 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 11:25 am

    TPOF
    Bemused is like Chinda63’s friend. He is convinced he knows the ‘truth’ and nothing will shake his belief.

    I am far from alone in my views. Others have given up on this blog as they just got sick of the rubbish on here.
    Read my post #573 @ 11:30am
    Do you disagree with my opinion of what would have happened if Rudd had left Parliament?

  29. simon katich @ #575 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 11:32 am

    **He is convinced he knows the ‘truth’ **
    I noticed Bemused apologised for a comment to GG the other day without any prompting.
    I am happy to let Bemused flaunt his personality – but I probably wouldnt bake him a wedding cake.

    If I am wrong, or make a comment that on reflection was unfair, I will always apologise. Always have.
    I have no idea of your culinary skills so I would be disinclined to ask you to bake me a cake. And I have had enough of weddings.

  30. I am sure that religious belief is tied in somehow with an individual’s psychology. It’s not a matter of being too smart and rational to believe, even though I might have fancied that of myself when I was young.

    But there are lots of much smarter, rational people who do believe. Some people seem to be hard-wired to believe, others, like myself, not to. Education makes a difference, although more in the style and sophistication of the believing rather than belief itself. It’s also the milieu you grow up in and live in. Life was pretty grim for most people outside the elites throughout history, and for many now. Religion offered comforts, the opium of the common people as it were. On the other hand, for a young person in 20th century Australia, life was mostly pretty good. Who needed religion?

  31. steve777 @ #580 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 11:40 am

    I am sure that religious belief is tied in somehow with an individual’s psychology. It’s not a matter of being too smart and rational to believe, even though I might have fancied that of myself when I was young.
    But there are lots of much smarter, rational people who do believe. Some people seem to be hard-wired to believe, others, like myself, not to. Education makes a difference, although more in the style and sophistication of the believing rather than belief itself. It’s also the milieu you grow up in and live in. Life was pretty grim for most people outside the elites throughout history, and for many now. Religion offered comforts, the opium of the common people as it were. On the other hand, for a young person in 20th century Australia, life was mostly pretty good. Who needed religion?

    Usually it comes down to what happened to them as children.

  48. GG
    Until Turnbull really deals with Abbott things will only get worse for the party.
    By”deals” I mean to take him out.

  50. One for the tech geeks. OK, I used to be one and I suppose I still am to some extent.

    WD announces 96-layer 3D NAND, initial production output in 2018

    NAND isn’t the nickname of your grandmother, but the technology in the storage chips inside your smartphones, tablets and computers, with Western Digital announcing an industry first.

    It was just on two weeks ago that Samsung announced its 4th-generation, 64-layer V-NAND technology was now in “full production”, and its own moves toward the terabit V-NAND era, with 90-layer technology.

    Samsung said its move to full production delivers productivity and reliability gains, greater energy efficiency, and more storage for ever hungrier users demanding greater storage capacities at the same or better prices.

    Now comes its competitor, Western Digital (WD), announcing it has “successfully developed its next-generation 3D NAND technology, BiCS4, with 96 layers of vertical storage capability.”

    The announcement doesn’t mean full production as yet, however, with WD stating “sampling to OEM customers is expected to commence in the second half of calendar year 2017 and initial production output is expected in calendar year 2018″.

    WD notes its BiCS4 technology was developed jointly with manufacturing partner Toshiba Corporation, and “will be initially deployed in a 256-gigabit chip and will subsequently ship in a range of capacities, including a terabit on a single chip.”

    Clearly, it is fantastic to see this solid competition between Samsung, WD, Toshiba and everyone else in this game, because traditional slow hard drives need to be eliminated from consumer products, and devices such as the new iPad Pro models with up to 512GB of storage (and larger in the future!) need to start becoming standard capacities for consumers and business users sooner rather than later.
    —
    https://www.itwire.com/business-it-news/storage/78763-wd-announces-96-layer-3d-nand,-initial-production-output-in-2018.html

    To translate for the non-geeks, we are looking at soon seeing a Terrabit on a single chip which means solid state drives in the Terrabit range will soon be commonplace and displace the conventional electro mechanical hard disk in most, if not all, applications.

    Rotating hard disks are a major weak point in computers.

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