YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor

The debut entry from a new federal poll series finds low primary support for the major parties and an unusually tight race on two-party preferred – although it would be a different story if preferences flowed as they did at last year’s election.

As reported here in early May, British-based market research giant YouGov has entered the Australian federal polling game, in conjunction with Australian communications agency Fifty Acres. After reporting attitudinal polling on a fortnightly basis over recent months, the pollster has produced its first set of voting intention numbers, which are exclusively related below.

First though, a few points about methodology. The poll is conducted through an online panel, similar to Essential Research, and indeed an increasingly dominant share of public opinion polls internationally. The polling is conducted fortnightly from Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of a bit over 1000 respondents (1125 in the case of the latest survey), drawn from its pool of survey volunteers.

With respect to voting intention, respondents are presented with a mock ballot paper featuring (together with party logos) Coalition options that vary by state, Labor, the Greens, One Nation, Nick Xenophon Team, Katter’s Australian Party, a generic option for “Christian parties”, and “other/independent”. The results are weighted not just by age, gender and region, which is standard in Australian polling, but also by education and past vote. The latter two are common in Britain but, as far as I’m aware, unique in Australia. Needless to say, this leads to two-party preferred results based on respondent allocation, rather than results from previous elections.

The results for this week’s poll are distinctive in the narrowness of the two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead at 51-49, and low primary votes for both major parties, which come in at 34% for Labor and 33% for the Coalition. Results for the minor parties are Greens 12%, One Nation 7%, Christian parties 4%, Nick Xenophon Team 3%, Katter’s Australian Party 1% and other/independent 6%.

The first thing to be noted is that Labor would record a much stronger lead of 54-46 if preferences were distributed as per the 2016 result, rather than respondent allocation. However, such is the size of the non-major party vote that this would be heavily dependent on preference flows remaining stable despite some fairly dramatic changes in vote share. The second point is that the Greens are two to three points higher than the recent form of Newspoll and Essential Research, although not Ipsos. One Nation and the Nick Xenophon Team respectively come in at 7% and 3%, which would be fairly typical coming from Essential Research, but the combined vote of 11% for everyone else is around double the equivalent figure from Newspoll and Essential Research over the past two months.

For the regular attitudinal questions, this fortnight’s poll focuses on Donald Trump, with findings that 58% consider him “erratic” and a third “unhinged” (not sure if the one response here precludes the other, or if we should combine them to conclude that nearly everybody considers him unstable or worse); that 47% think his presidency threatens to destabilise the world; that 44% feel he won’t last long; and that 52% think his use of Twitter not suitable for a world leader. The poll also records 52% saying Australia is “ready to be fully powered by renewables”, 47% considering climate change a threat to the economy, and 51% supporting the inclusion of clean coal in a clean energy target.

NOTE: Separate to this one, I have a new post that takes a detailed look at the census results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 11 of 14
1 … 10 11 12 … 14

  1. Another Oz article on Pell. Chris Merritt ‘Legal Affairs Editor’ claims any conviction of Pell by a jury trial would be tainted by the jurors’ prejudices. This looks like another attempt to influence the legal process in respect of Pell.

    Pell has been the subject of a vast number of newspaper articles and television broadcasts that have given great credence to allegations, some of which date back decades.

    The pool of potential jurors is already tainted and it is ludicrous to pretend otherwise. No matter how seriously jurors take their responsibilities, the risk of unconscious bias is clear and should not be ignored.

    Jurors might honestly believe they are capable of overcoming the prejudicial impact of what they have read, seen and heard. Yet there is there is a clear risk that the cardinal, if faced with a jury trial, will be railroaded.

    Any conviction that follows a jury trial will always be the subject of doubt — which is the last thing anyone needs.

    The solution is to ensure that if there is a trial, it is before a judge alone. At least that way there is a far greater prospect of fairness.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/chris-merritt-prejudice/xenophons-push-for-inquiry-into-law-of-contempt-welcome/news-story/46c59b707b794e4cfd3fde0c8f013e99

  2. Look at Ireland, where the authority of the Church has been shot to pieces by the sex scandals, and never to recover. They now have SSM, and gay PM.

    Very true, and something that would’ve been unthinkable 20 years ago. I remember when Father Ted first came out and from memory it was banned from being shown in Ireland.

  5. victoria Friday, June 30, 2017 at 9:24 am

    Itzadream

    I am of the view that many choose to remain trapped, because they want to have faith in something. It just helps them function better. Heck. I sometimes wish I could too. It would make it easier to cope with all the crap going on in the world!!

    *************************************************

    Religion – it’s given people hope in a world torn apart by religion.

    Jon Stewart

  6. SethAbramson: RUSSIA BOMBSHELL. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL may have just found PROOF of Trump-Russia collusion, and it goes WAY UP: motherjones.com/politics/2017/… pic.twitter.com/Qyw3hGG6Mr

  9. MayneReport: Have just filed for today’s @crikey_news on @rupertmurdoch and the OfCom “fit and proper” report. A fascinating situation.

  11. Bemused I think the point is that there will be an attempt to create lawful exemptions from discrimination law for these instances, such as religious organisations enjoy and make full use of currently. That is what the cake debate is about.

  12. I have a staunchly Catholic friend who not only refuses to believe that a priest is capable of ANY sin, let alone perpetrating sexual abuse against a child, but she – dead set – believes the accusations are made because the accusers have been possessed by the devil.

    How do you argue with people like that? The answer is you can’t. You just shake your head at the bad shit crazy denial and move on with your life …

  14. Chinda63

    You can be a catholic and believe Priests, who after all are mere mortals, be pedos. In fact, it is the perfect breeding ground for them!
    Some people are rigid in their thinking. Luckily I don’t know any catholics like this. Quite the opposite actually

  17. Victoria

    The bombshell is they got hold of hard evidence of emails. Not he said he said as with Comey testimony

  18. lizzie @ #473 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 8:30 am

    CTar1

    I don’t generally assess or place a value on people I meet based on sex, sexuality or religion

    Neither do I. In fact, I’d rather not know, just take them as they are.
    However, I am feeling a little sorry for lay Catholics, who must feel as if the structure they have trusted is melting away.

    I feel similarly.
    Most people I encounter don’t flaunt their religion, sexuality, political views in front of everyone and get on just fine. Most people neither know or care about such characteristics which are essentially private in nature.

  20. It’s so touching and heart warming to see Rupert’s minions like Paul Kelly, suddenly realise the importance of a fair trial and traditional legal principles such as the presumption of innocence.

    I look forward to them upholding these principles when the next accused terrorist, union official or political opponent is charged by police.

  21. shiftaling @ #511 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 9:39 am

    Bemused I think the point is that there will be an attempt to create lawful exemptions from discrimination law for these instances, such as religious organisations enjoy and make full use of currently. That is what the cake debate is about.

    Why on earth would a person ordering a cake want to open up a conversation about the sexuality of the people being married? It’s just a damned cake for goodness sake.
    I don’t see a problem unless people want to deliberately create one.

  23. Bemused

    You want gay people to censor their conversations? How many times must a gay person say she when referring to a partner to hide they are gay to satisfy these homophobic cake bakers?

  24. Guytaur don’t we all flaunt our beliefs and sense of belonging through our choices in building personal identity? Grayson Perry is a great believer in this. I like to think i am not a ‘flaunter’, but then i get around in a ‘Make Trade Fair’ tshirt quite often

  27. Bemused it is the people asking for exemptions that are causing an issue. If there is no issue then there is no need for an exemption.

  28. If the same cladding as Grenfell turned up on a site in Australia & unions put a ban on installation, the ABCC would prosecute them.

  29. D Money

    Yes you see heterosexuality flaunted all over the place. Sex scenes on screens, Kissing. Holding hands.

    Kissing and holding hands flaunting happens every day on the streets.

    So much flaunting

  30. Bemused
    Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 5:21 pm

    “I am just incredulous that anyone on his side of politics can see any benefit in putting up with him. He should be out on his ear.”

    Very well put ..that’s exactly what I thought when that treacherous bastard Rudd commenced his disgraceful campaign to undermine Julia Gillard’s PMship..

  31. victoria @ #514 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 9:49 am

    Chinda63
    You can be a catholic and believe Priests, who after all are mere mortals, be pedos. In fact, it is the perfect breeding ground for them!
    Some people are rigid in their thinking. Luckily I don’t know any catholics like this. Quite the opposite actually

    The Catholics I know are indistinguishable from the non-Catholics unless they ‘out’ themselves. Social attitudes are mixed but don’t seem to divide along lines of religion.

  33. G **Gay people do not flaunt their sexuality.**
    Some do. Just like some heterosexuals. Perhaps a little more so as their sexuality may have been suppressed for some time and it then becomes a celebration or an expression of identity or determination to be oneself in the face of such suppression.

    I used to get annoyed by the giggling gay boys (still high from a night dancing and cavorting) in the cafes in and around Erko on a Saturday morning – but at the same time I was glad I lived in an inclusive community.

  34. A little bit of flaunting is helpful to signal the kind of people whose company you prefer. In that context i think the ‘gay accent’ is a fairly prominent type of flaunt. A bit like wearing a sharks beanie to prove you’re a real leaguie, or a beard cane hat or flowing hippy dress can be used to signify green political leanings

  35. I suppose the deal with the cake would be that it would be decorated with the names of the couple. So whether one sought to “open a discussion” or not, the text would show the genders of those celebrated by the cake. But in any case, even if the cake had no message on it, why should gender and/or sexuality be something that should be concealed!

  37. simon katich @ #533 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 10:24 am

    G **Gay people do not flaunt their sexuality.**
    Some do. Just like some heterosexuals. Perhaps a little more so as their sexuality may have been suppressed for some time and it then becomes a celebration or an expression of identity or determination to be oneself in the face of such suppression.
    I used to get annoyed by the giggling gay boys (still high from a night dancing and cavorting) in the cafes in and around Erko on a Saturday morning – but at the same time I was glad I lived in an inclusive community.

    And isn’t sexual harassment a form of flaunting your sexuality amongst other things.

  39. To be honest more flaunting of sexuality and less flaunting of violence would be a great thing for society in my view

  40. Sk we may frequent the same cafes! I am in two or three minds about religious flaunting. Crucifixes etc clearly state that someone is basing their identity on an external code of belief, which makes me uneasy. But if i am uneasy about that i run into problems with needing to also be uneasy about hijabs, cassocks, long beards, turbans , curly sideburns etc etc.

  41. d-money @ #534 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 10:26 am

    A little bit of flaunting is helpful to signal the kind of people whose company you prefer. In that context i think the ‘gay accent’ is a fairly prominent type of flaunt. A bit like wearing a sharks beanie to prove you’re a real leaguie, or a beard cane hat or flowing hippy dress can be used to signify green political leanings

    Life would be so simple if stereotypes were true. 🙂

  42. guytaur @ #523 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 10:12 am

    Bemused
    You want gay people to censor their conversations? How many times must a gay person say she when referring to a partner to hide they are gay to satisfy these homophobic cake bakers?

    To conduct that transaction, you just select a cake. And is it the people getting married who do it? So long ago I can’t remember, but I have no recollection of participating in a cake purchase.

  43. Bemused

    Its common for the baker to wish you a happy marriage and to ask questions to get an idea of the kind of style cake you like. In this conversation talking about your partner is common. Thus he or she is referred to.

  46. Victoria
    I am of the view that many choose to remain trapped, because they want to have faith in something. It just helps them function better. Heck. I sometimes wish I could too. It would make it easier to cope with all the crap going on in the world!!

    Victoria, it’s probably time to give this a rest, but I think it’s exactly the opposite. It’s the institutions and god competitions that are causing the crap in the world. How a life lived in fear of judgement and punishment and the belief in an interventional deity (who doesn’t interfere except to wipe you out with floods and earthquakes cos you didn’t pray enough or slept with the bridegroom) can make you function better escapes me.

    But I do agree people use it as a prop. It is sadly, imho, outsourcing the search for meaning.

    There are spiritual paths to be explored outside the institutions if that’s what people want. It’s just harder, and tellingly, really hard to break from childhood (give me a child till he’s seven) indoctrination.

  47. markjs @ #530 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 10:20 am

    Bemused
    Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 5:21 pm
    “I am just incredulous that anyone on his side of politics can see any benefit in putting up with him. He should be out on his ear.”
    Very well put ..that’s exactly what I thought when that treacherous bastard Rudd commenced his disgraceful campaign to undermine Julia Gillard’s PMship..

    And what I thought about the treacherous Gillard. The ‘loyal’ deputy with the stiletto.

  48. Thinking of flaunting, there is nothing quite like a wedding for ritualised display. That is exactly what a wedding is!

    FMD, if ya cannot exhibit who you are, how you feel, who you want and who wants you at the wedding, then when can you!

  49. Who’d want to buy a cake from someone who didn’t want to bake you are cake cos they thought you were a poofter?

Comments Page 11 of 14
1 … 10 11 12 … 14

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *