Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Guardian reports the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has come in at 52-48 to Labor for a third week in a row, with the Coalition (39%), Labor (36%) and the Greens (10%) each managing to gain a point on the primary vote, as One Nation’s recent run of good polling form comes to an end with a two point drop to 7%. The poll also finds 78% of respondents on board for the no-brainer of real-time disclosure of political donations, 79% for politicians having to disclose meetings with companies, donors or unions, 64% for a ban on foreign donations and 61% for a $5000 cap on donations, but only 30% for a ban on donations and more public funding in its stead. Also featured are Essential’s occasional suite of questions on the personal attributes of the two leaders, on which I’ll wait on their full release later today before reaching any conclusions.

The other news in polldom this week is Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, age, gender and metro/non-metro, which are helpfully laid out in very great detail here. Statewise, the picture is overwhelmingly one of uniformity, with Labor leading 53-47 through the April-June quarter everywhere except South Australia, where it was 56-44. In swing terms, this suggests less change in New South Wales and Victoria compared with the 2016 result than the smaller states. When these numbers are plugged into the next BludgerTrack update, they will tend to boost Labor in New South Wales, where the swing presently recorded is an anomalously modest 0.7%, without making much difference elsewhere. Also of note is a two-point drop for One Nation in Western Australia in the wake of the state election, compared with stable results elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe