BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Two new polls fail to make much difference to the aggregated two-party reading, although One Nation has bounced back after a recent fallow patch.

New results from Newspoll and Essential Research have failed to have any impact on BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred reading, but there’s one point worth noting on the primary vote, with the recent lift in One Nation’s poll ratings finally kicking into action on the trend measurement (more on that here if you’re a Crikey subscriber). Last week I noted signs that Labor’s surge in Western Australia was abating, with two seats flipping back to the Coalition on the seat projection, but this week they’ve flipped back again. However, this is counterbalanced by one gain apiece for the Coalition in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll and Essential both provide new numbers on personal ratings, which result in both leaders taking a uptick on net approval, and Malcolm Turnbull slightly improving on preferred prime minister.

Also of note:

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published its third interim report from its inquiry into last year’s federal election, this time into modernisation of the Australian Electoral Commission. The report gives a sympathetic hearing to the AEC’s complaints that it has lacked the resources to keep pace with technological change, and is unduly straitjacketed by an overly prescriptive Electoral Act. Most significantly, it recommends trials be conducted of electronic counting of House of Representatives ballot papers, building upon the scheme introduced for the new Senate system last year, whereby manual data entry is supplemented by scanning and optical character recognition. The significance of apparent Russian efforts to hack into American electoral systems has been duly noted elsewhere.

• Antony Green has published his usual statistical review of the Western Australian election for the state parliament. This one is particularly interesting in that it features comprehensive data on preference flows for each minor party, which I don’t believe I’ve ever seen from a state election before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,098 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. GG – I didn’t do much crawling around under it (or any other car).

    My brother a mechanic with his own garage/workshop back then. I left that stuff to him.


  3. Timothy Reichle
    Monday, June 26, 2017 at 9:27 pm
    Tested myself with the questions:
    100%.
    3, 15 and 19 I think would be tough for most of the people in Australia.
    I think some people need to look at 6a being incorrect in some of the debates.

    No 6 sent me off to find out what happened with scientology; turns out it didn’t remain banned.

  4. CTar1

    Holley carbs and the extractors! Lordy it has been a while since I thought of such things. Things that were once the most important things on earth 🙂

    You woulda lurved the 454 Chev motor the people we used to water ski with over summer plonked in their boat. Man could that go. Oh and chew fuel, 2-4 44 gallon drums in a weekend. On the upside the petrol cheap as a) It was pre First Oil Crisis and b) Tax free as it was bought for a farm

  12. Pegasus
    The Greens should be down on their knees thanking Rhiannon for the bullet dodged. The Greens are trying to become the Democrates; is it a environmental issue that has caused the contention; no; the case rests. Look what happened to the Democrates.
    Evicting Rhiannon will be another brick in the wall,
    The Greens have a history of trying to be too clever by half.

  14. All this talk of backups has made me remember how long it is since I’ve done any clean up on my back up drives.

    So after making sure the back up on one is ‘good’ I’m reformatting the other.

    It’s a terrabyte so I guess that’ll take a couple of hours.

  15. Frednk – I gather the NSW Greens are a difficult proposition for ‘national’ management so the party exec may have been waiting to give them a whack.

  16. Great point about the inanity of America’s health care debate:

    saying Trumpcare is worse and Obamacare is better is like saying, “It’s better to catch crabs from sleeping with a hot young lady, than to get it from a used gym towel.” Sure. I guess. But shouldn’t we just be focusing on the fact you have crabs? Who gives a shit about the towel? And shouldn’t you also switch gyms?

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/06/lee-camp-heres-no-legitimate-healthcare-debate-country.html

  18. Expelling Rhiannon from the Party Room but not the Greens would be bizarre and verging on parody. It would turn the National Council and/or the NSW Greens (who Rhiannon would still answer too and which is currently split ~50/50) into a de facto supra party room and the Parliamentary Greens actually spent a significant amount of time getting a fair degree of freedom from the National Council.

    But that’s probably the only thing they can really do, the Parliamentary Party almost certainly doesn’t have the authority to expel someone and it’s unlikely even the National Council could, due to the way the Greens work, it’d have to be either Rhiannon’s branch (lol) or maybe the NSW Council could disendorse her as a Senator (which is more possible but dubious given the current power balance and almost guaranteed to set off an internal civil war either way).

    Which is probably why no decision has been reached , the Greens structure really isn’t set up for a situation like this at all so they (the Federal Party Room) don’t have a viable course of action.

  19. I want you to carefully consider how much agency about not going out in the Sun , ever, you actually have. Because from a practical perspective (let alone medical (which can be medicated to some extent) or psychological one) , I think you’ll find its effectively 0. Your other examples are better.

  22. Two biggest laughs of QandA.

    Pyne and Morris saying the Turbull Government have successfully got a lot of legislation through the Senate

    And Alistair Cambell saying on Marriage Equallity “Take it from a Brit. Don’t do a referendum”

  24. Nicholas @ #1067 Monday, June 26th, 2017 – 10:30 pm

    Great point about the inanity of America’s health care debate:

    saying Trumpcare is worse and Obamacare is better is like saying, “It’s better to catch crabs from sleeping with a hot young lady, than to get it from a used gym towel.” Sure. I guess. But shouldn’t we just be focusing on the fact you have crabs? Who gives a shit about the towel? And shouldn’t you also switch gyms?

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/06/lee-camp-heres-no-legitimate-healthcare-debate-country.html

    I think it’s more like saying “I’d rather lose my left hand than lose my right arm and have rabies”. Neither option is ideal, but one is clearly, objectively, and unquestionably better than the other.

  25. It is only a great point about the US healthcare system with Obama and Trump being the same if you are a complete moron and 28 million deaths don’t matter to you at all. Otherwise anyone who has evolved beyond slime can easily conclude that while neither is good by any normal social standard one is substantially worse than the other. I don’t know if it is a total moral vacuum or total stupidity that would have you say they were essentially the same, but in a two horse race where your only job is to pick which is better and they are a million miles apart and you still can’t do the only job you have, you’d have to question who out of the three is the stupidest, and neither horse is gonna be it.

  26. NicolaSturgeon: Any sense of fairness sacrificed on the altar of grubby DUP deal to let PM cling to power, & Scots Tories influence in No10 shown to be zero

  27. I’m not sure if the greens have a history of being too clever by half or half wits, but the upper paddock is clearly not adequately populated.

  29. True if you take a literal view of the words. Says nothing for the quality of what was passed, or the compromises required to get it passed.

  30. guytaur @ #1072 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 11:01 pm

    Two biggest laughs of QandA.
    Pyne and Morris saying the Turbull Government have successfully got a lot of legislation through the Senate
    And Alistair Cambell saying on Marriage Equallity “Take it from a Brit. Don’t do a referendum”

    True if you take a literal view of the words. Says nothing for the quality of what was passed, or the compromises required to get it passed.

  35. brucerossbrc: I was slow to switch the TV off and so saw Q&A stand-in Trioli asking the question: “Have voters simply tuned out”
    Viewers certainly have

  36. OwenJones84: And lo! The Tories did conjure up the magic money tree to shower gifts on their homophobic, anti-choice, climate change denying friends

  37. Obamacare is a significant improvement on what was there before and Trump”care” is trying to roll that back, which should be resisted and hopefully defeated, but the ultimate solution is Medicare for all, the push which is being pushed by many people including Bernie Sanders.

  40. Just when you thought Miranda Devine and Rowan Dean couldn’t stoop any lower, they do.

    Was a pretty comprehensive take-down of the scum. Certainly Devine has a history of simply getting stuff wrong.

    Miranda Devine‏Verified account @mirandadevine 9 Nov 2014
    More
    Replying to @SydneyWaterNews
    @SydneyWaterNews why doesn’t yr twitter-feed trumpet the giant pink condom you allowed on the Hyde Park Obelisk in time for Remembrance Day?

    Of course it was a sewer vent, not an obelisk.

  45. I don’t bother with Q&A but –

    Trioli asking the question: “Have voters simply tuned out”

    That’s a new question for her. Usually she asks –

    “I know you’re here to talk about ‘X’ but just before that can I ask you ….”

    Tony Jones and the teleprompter have done well.

  47. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/26/hard-brexit-heathrow-third-runway-infrastructure-uk-eu-hs2

    A hard Brexit would be a “calamity” that would spell the end for the Heathrow expansion, according to the chairman of the National Infrastructure Commission.

    While the airport has argued that Brexit makes its third runway ever more important, Andrew Adonis said private investment in infrastructure would be off the table unless Britain could maintain ties with the EU.

    Lord Adonis said that a host of major projects including HS2, Crossrail 2 and HS3 rail links between northern cities, as well as universal broadband and mobile services, would be under threat but particularly those that rely on private funding.

    “If we were to go for a hard Brexit which severs Britain’s trading ties with the continent I think we could be heading for a calamity as a country,” he said. “It’s important that we have a Brexit that maintains Britain’s trading ties with the continent, and that probably requires a long transition period, so we can get a fully fledged trade treaty.

    “These decisions on Brexit have a crucial bearing on infrastructure. Business will not invest for the long term if they think Britain is going down the tube. It’s as simple as that. The projects that will be most affected will be those that require immediate private sector investment – starting with Heathrow.”

    Heathrow is owned by a range of foreign investors, the biggest two of which are a Spanish consortium and Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund. The cost of a third runway was put at £17.6bn, although Heathrow said it was trying to reduce the price.

    The commission chair was joined on Monday by business leaders in calling on the government to make urgent progress on infrastructure decisions.

    A decision has been taken in principle on Heathrow but it needs to be approved by MPs voting on a national policy statement due to be published this year. Although a majority of MPs are thought to back expansion, senior figures in both the Conservative and Labour party are strongly opposed.

    With a hung parliament, Adonis said: “There is a real danger that no decisions come forward and we end up as a country seriously regretting yet another period of dither and delay on major infrastructure decisions.”

    Adonis was joined by leaders from the British Chambers of Commerce, the CBI and the Federation of Small Businesses in calling on politicians to ensure infrastructure projects were not delayed. They set out a timetable for decisive action on a total of 12 schemes across transport, energy, digital and water sectors, all of which have been agreed in principle by government but could yet languish.

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