BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Two new polls fail to make much difference to the aggregated two-party reading, although One Nation has bounced back after a recent fallow patch.

New results from Newspoll and Essential Research have failed to have any impact on BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred reading, but there’s one point worth noting on the primary vote, with the recent lift in One Nation’s poll ratings finally kicking into action on the trend measurement (more on that here if you’re a Crikey subscriber). Last week I noted signs that Labor’s surge in Western Australia was abating, with two seats flipping back to the Coalition on the seat projection, but this week they’ve flipped back again. However, this is counterbalanced by one gain apiece for the Coalition in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll and Essential both provide new numbers on personal ratings, which result in both leaders taking a uptick on net approval, and Malcolm Turnbull slightly improving on preferred prime minister.

Also of note:

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published its third interim report from its inquiry into last year’s federal election, this time into modernisation of the Australian Electoral Commission. The report gives a sympathetic hearing to the AEC’s complaints that it has lacked the resources to keep pace with technological change, and is unduly straitjacketed by an overly prescriptive Electoral Act. Most significantly, it recommends trials be conducted of electronic counting of House of Representatives ballot papers, building upon the scheme introduced for the new Senate system last year, whereby manual data entry is supplemented by scanning and optical character recognition. The significance of apparent Russian efforts to hack into American electoral systems has been duly noted elsewhere.

• Antony Green has published his usual statistical review of the Western Australian election for the state parliament. This one is particularly interesting in that it features comprehensive data on preference flows for each minor party, which I don’t believe I’ve ever seen from a state election before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,098 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 21 of 22
1 20 21 22
  1. First Dog has got some of the new citizenship test questions.

    Try your luck

    I actually think that kind of piss take cartoon is unhelpful when you can simply reference the Real McCoy as evidence of how ridiculous these tests are.

    Here’s a sample of eg questions the test uses. How many of these do you think your average born and bred Aussie could right – remembering you need to score 75% or better to pass. That’s where the value in exposing the limitations of such tests as some kind of measure of the worth of a potential citizen lie.

  2. a r @ #999 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 7:55 pm

    So you don’t necessarily need space for multiple complete backups. As long as you’re using a program to manage your backups (as opposed to manually dragging files around), you should be able to get away with space for 1.5 backups or less.

    Indeed. On the mac the relevant program is called Time Machine. It keeps hourly backups for twenty four hours, then daily, then weekly then monthly backups. No doubt windows has the same facility. One would hope so.

    You can thus access what you had done yesterday when you realise you totally fucked up today, (what were you thinking?) and need to get back what you had yesterday. Or a couple of hours ago today, doesn’t matter.

    The whole thing is as intuitive as buggery, easy as.

    Then there is dropbox, which works extremely well. Set just a few folders to be backed up, and any time a change is made, dropbox loads it into the cloud. Free for the first two gigs, you’d be mad not to use it.

    I use the paid version, because I have humungous files that must never disappear, ever, and are being updated on a daily basis.

  3. Right on, Patricia!

    A point I’d like to add to her comment, is that what Turnbull & Co. have done by allowing the ideologues on the FWA to decide to make people’s pay less for the first time via the Penalty Rate cut (and remember it has been stacked by the Coalition as long as they have had access to it, and even before when it was the IR Commission and Tony Abbott was IR Minister), is Turnbull has agreed to do something to the Workers of this nation that John Howard, even in his fevered WorkChoices days, would never have done. That is, openly agreed with and supported a PAY CUT for Australians.

    Sure, he found fiddles that effectively equalled that but he was never so overt and public about advocating for it.

    It just proves, yet again, that Turnbull has a tin ear for the politics. The electorate are not forgiving of this. It’s their lives he is messing with.

  4. It’s on in the Greens!

    Senator Rhiannon is accused of breaking the Greens party rules and acting in bad faith by failing to tell her colleagues that she had decided to campaign and vote against the bill, while other senators were still in official negotiations with the Government.

    A Greens partyroom meeting via teleconference today did not reach a decision on what, if any, punishment should be imposed, and another meeting is likely to be held this week.

    But the ABC understands that the extraordinary step of expulsion from the party room is being considered, because previous censures have not changed Senator Rhiannon’s behaviour.

    Even if Senator Rhiannon was expelled from the party room she would remain a Greens member.

  5. lizzie @ #951 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 6:34 pm


    However I had to buy (a leaf blower) because the ride on mower bloke refused to service my machine if I continued to bring it in covered with grass clippings.

    Please expline!

    A ride on mower is my weapon of choice. Could not do anything much without it. It is essential on my place, a little over three hectares about seven km outside of Armidale. I used to run sheep, did my own shearing and dressing of lambs for the freezer, but gave that away as more trouble than it is worth.

    So now I have two hectares or so that I regularly mow. Looks great. I had a towbar put on it (Greenfields brand, would not have anything else) and it pulls an ordinary six by four trailer around the place, on which I throw fencing materials, prunings, firewood, whatever, and take them where they are needed.

    But the major use is for mowing the grass. Inevitably cut grass clippings build up on the aluminium casting above the mower blades, and eventually interferes with the operation of things like the raising and lowering of the deck, high for the paddock, low for the lawn around the house, the ability to turn off the rotation of the blades and so on.

    So before I take it to the mower place (we are very fortunate to have highly reliable and completely competent mower/chainsaw/whippersnipper/pump and irrigation equipment trades people in Armidale, northern NSW) as a bribe to Gavin who looks after my mower, I blow off all the accumulated crud of grass clippings or whatever before loading it on the trailer.

    Gavin likes to have a clean machine to work with.

    Gotta keep Gavin happy.

  6. Sprocket,
    Steve Price DOES know what’s going on in the Liberal Party though, no matter how much we may dislike him.

  7. Sprocket / Anyone else

    As well as a regular restart I’ve also been told to turn off your computer once a week and let it go cold (turn off going to bed) and then starting some hours later is good because it allows stuff to discharge completely.

    True or false?

  8. CTar:

    I’m a huge Seger fan too, even though I was born in the decade he and his band struck it big. But I’m not sure what the NBN has to do with Spotify. I get great streaming of Spotify on my phone.

  9. I was born the decade AFTER Seger amd the Silver Bullet Band started out and I still think he’s amazing. Absence from Spotify has irked me for ages

  10. CTar:

    Never had a Seger cassette, but have Night Moves downloaded on my phone. Can listen anywhere, even the car if I sync my phone with the car system. Love new technology.

  11. CTar1
    Oh the envy when one of our group bought ( or his parents) an SLR 5000. It was Phwaor!!!! to the max. Lovely burnt orange and black 🙂

    He cried about the cost of keeping fuel in the tank though 🙂

  12. Peter Brent‏Verified account @mumbletwits 29m29 minutes ago
    Q&a guests particularly uninviting tonight! Can you bear it?

    No which is why I won’t be watching.

  13. Ides (and others)

    As per your request for an update on the Libspill III sweeps.

    The only ones left standing are:

    Steve777 – June 2017
    Edward Boyce – June 2017
    Albo – 12 months time (September 2017)
    Moksha – 5/9/17 – 11/9/17
    Nicole – September 2017
    Rex Douglas – Xmas 2017
    Booleanbach – after 30 consecutive bad polls
    C@t – after 30 Newspolls
    cupidstunt – 3 months before election
    Frednk – April 13 2019
    Chinda63 – after the next election/Turnbull resignation

  14. Poroti

    He cried about the cost of keeping fuel in the tank though

    And a problem was the tank only took about 12 gallons (55 litres, I think).

  15. Wow amazing hypocrisy from Campbell Newman! Says Turnbull has lied to the Libs and needs to resign. Pot, kettle anyone? And where is this Get Turnbull media theme emerging from? Who do those propagating it believe will take over the PMship and guide the party out of the doldrums?

    Sky News Australia
    7 mins ·
    Former Qld Liberal premier Campbell Newman says Malcolm Turnbull has ‘led the Liberal Party into the valley of death’. #beattieandreith MORE

  16. Fess

    Campbell Newman says Malcolm Turnbull has ‘led the Liberal Party into the valley of death’.

    He says that like it is a bad thing 😆

  17. elaugaufein @ #865 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 1:54 pm

    Turnbull can’t put SSM to the vote. He’d be rolled straight after, he doesn’t have the numbers to be able to defy the party room on such a major issue to conservatives. And they’d get over it about as well as they got over abortion, ie they’ll still be complaining about it 40 years from now.

    During 2016 federal election I was having a chat with an Amercian friend who is a lefty political tragic like me and I was explaining the double dissolution election. He asked me about it being used, and about how effective it was, and the best example I had was the 1974 DD. He wasn’t surprised that the Right continued to whinge about Whitlam and his achievments to this day, despite his death a couple of years ago.

  18. Poroti

    Phone, naw … Wouldn’t have been able to hear it over the sucking whoosh noise of the Holley and the snarling and bark of the Hooker extractors.

    I still had the handbook and service book for it, along with a Holley sticker, one from Edelbrock Manifolds and a Hooker Headers one. I didn’t stick them on the car so they were tucked in the red plastic ‘GMH’ folder that held the handbook and service book. One of my nephew’s friends bought a very run down LX Hatchbook about 15 yrs ago and spent oodles of money on it. I gave him the folder, made his year because they’re hard to find.)

  19. Tested myself with the questions:

    3, 15 and 19 I think would be tough for most of the people in Australia.
    I think some people need to look at 6a being incorrect in some of the debates.

  20. Poroti
    Monday, June 26, 2017 at 8:38 pm
    “A ride on mower is my weapon of choice.”
    And you have a very impressive weapon.

  21. Once more with feeling:

    Monday, June 26, 2017 at 8:38 pm
    “A ride on mower is my weapon of choice.”
    And you have a very impressive weapon.

    I’ve often wished for more speed on my machine.

    And the motor (four stroke Briggs and Stratton?) is pathetic compared to the lack of maintenance required on my 1998 Toyota Camry.

    You are supposed to take it in for service every fifty hours. Imagine having to do that with an ordinary car!

    fifty hours x 80 km/h equals a service every 4000 km. Ridiculous.

    Mower engines have not come close to the long life and reliability of car engines. I’d love to be able to put a Toyota engine into my mower.

    When I was a kid, you often saw broken down cars by the side of the road with the bonnet up, people standing around. Not any more. Cars don’t boil going up long hills now, either.

Comments Page 21 of 22
1 20 21 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *