Labor’s lead remains steady at 52-48 in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (steady), 35% for Labor 35% (down one), 9% for Greens 9% (down one) and 9% for One Nation (up one), whose curious resurgence was the subject of an article I had in Crikey on Monday. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull down one on approval to 36% and down three on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten steady at 34% and down two to 43%; and Turnbull leading 39-26 on preferred prime minister, up from 39-31 last month. In other findings, the poll also records only 17% saying the recent budget improved their perception of the government, compared with 30% saying it made it worse; a 41-32 majority in favour of a clean energy target if it resulted in price rises of 5%, turning into a 50-21 deficit if they rose 10%; and 64% favouring investment in renewables in a no-strings-attached question compared with 18% for coal.
Also out yesterday was the Lowy Institute’s annual survey on Australian attitudes to international affairs and the direction of the country. Among many other things, the results find Australians continuing to rate the alliance with the United States highly (53% very important and 29% fairly important, recovering to near 2015 levels after a dip to 42% and 29% last year), with Donald Trump’s influence on perceptions of the US rating slightly less badly than George W. Bush in 2007 (60% said Trump contributed to an unfavourable opinion of the United States against 37% for no, compared with 69% and 27% for Bush). However, the proportion of respondents rating the US as Australia’s best friend has slumped from 35% to 17% since 2014, with the beneficiary being New Zealand, up from 32% to 53%. Only 20% now say they have a “great deal” of trust in the US to act responsibly in the world, compared with 40% in 2011.
1,400 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”
‘I don’t think it’s a speech defect – it’s just lazy..’
Ah, so you’re a clinician. Sorry, didn’t realise you were speaking from authority.
‘And it doesn’t sound prime ministerial. It may sound elitist but we expect clear enunciation of those aspiring to leader the country. Before electronic media you could get away with poor diction or a painful accent but not any more. It’s just a fact of modern political life.’
Oh, bollocks. Really. John Howard? Tony Abbott? And many people found Gillard’s voice grating. ..
Friday, June 23, 2017 at 10:28 pm
I think the 2PP run says it all. Voters have largely made up their minds about the LNP, who are inconsistent, ineffectual, out of touch and incompetent. Their record on the economy will bring them down if nothing else does.
I looked this up after listening to the AM report linked earlier.
That is like a media release, but it contains a link to the full report.
I doubt P1 will want to read it as it will make (s)he/it cry.
“This overinvestment in natural gas infrastructure is likely to lead to either emissions overshooting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C and 2°C goals—or a large number of stranded assets as the shift to cheaper renewables takes place, “ said Andrzej Ancygier of Climate Analytics.
I partially agree with you. I think he saw an opportunity to spread his beliefs and message
Anyone who thinks linguistic style is the mark of leadership capacity should listen to recordings of John Curtin. He was without and doubt the greatest leader we have seen so far, and he could be a great live public speaker, but his voice was also very dry, hoarse and tight-pitched at times, nasally and broadly-accented.
What matters in the end is neither what you say nor how you say it, but rather it is what you do and what you stand for. On these measures, Curtin literally made modern Australia possible. We basically owe him and his team nearly everything. Australians knew it and could hardly have cared less how he sounded.
And that was always so.
Two questions for you.
1) Preferred pronoun?
2) I think your argument is that we need to move to gas now/immediately, then transfer to renewables when they are cheaper/battery storage more developed? Is this the gist of it?
cud chewer @ #1311 Friday, June 23, 2017 at 10:05 pm
Actually, solar pretty much does switch off at about 4pm in winter, so where is your overnight electricity coming from on winter nights when there is little or no wind? Currently, it comes from coal and gas. But you won’t have that, so your only option is storage.
According to NEM Watch we are currently at pretty much winter peak consumption, using about 30GW of electricity. Peak demand lasts for about 5 hours (5pm to 10pm), then tails off to about half that over the rest of the evening. You do the maths.
So on a cold winter’s night with low wind, your 100GWh will not even get you through the peak period, let alone the whole night. And of course, bad weather the next day means you will not be able to recharge your storage.
Your network is kaput, perhaps for days.
Sure you do.
P1, if you can’t be bothered to actually figure out why you’re wrong, then I can’t help you. As I said, the capacity for self doubt is one of those things one expects from intelligence.
Friday, June 23, 2017 at 10:46 pm
One year on from the EU referendum, it’s become clear that the EU will decide the Brexit deal
And that was always so.
Indeed. The scales are falling from the eyes…
Another interesting and local link regarding plasma gasification of landfill waste.
Confessions .. What is that supposed to mean?
briefly @ #1355 Friday, June 23, 2017 at 10:45 pm
Ditto for Chifley.
But in those days radio was crap and no-one really sounded good.
And the Australian accent has changed as any old recordings or film clips will demonstrate. In their day they were probably more ‘normal’ in their speech than we might find them.
Briefly – and anyone who thinks the ability to make a speech is a sign of leadership should remember that Obama is widely considered to have been one of the most rhetorically gifted Presidents in history – but achieved very little, and what he did achieve is currently being undone.
For those interested in Alex Malley of CPA Australia, his tenure at CPA Australia has finished today with a $4.9m golden handshake. CPA members were emailed this about half an hour ago:
I am sorry for the lateness of this communication but the Board met today and proceedings have only just concluded.
CPA Australia advises that Mr Alex Malley is finishing in his role as chief executive, effective 23 June.
At its meeting today, the Board decided to terminate Alex’s contract in order to allow CPA Australia, CPA Australia staff and Alex to move forward. In the interests of full disclosure, CPA Australia has made a payment of $4.9 million in accordance with our obligations.
On behalf of the Board, I wish to thank Alex for the significant contribution he has made over the past seven and a half years. He has guided CPA Australia through a period of sustained growth. He brought an ambitious vision for our profession and was dedicated to supporting students and young leaders.
Alex’s legacy is an organisation with a global footprint and an ambitious outlook. We know that he will be very much missed by his colleagues and friends at CPA Australia.
The Board intends to commence a thorough executive search process for a new chief executive.
Chief operating officer Mr Adam Awty, has been appointed as interim CEO. The Board and Adam have agreed that his remuneration for this period will remain as per his current role as COO.
In addition to the call for expressions of interest for directors that closed on 29 May, the Board will shortly be seeking further expressions of interest for casual vacancies that have arisen from resignations mid-term. The Board will be replenished by 1 October, with a minimum of eight new directors.
We will continue to provide you with updates both through our website and with further direct email communication.
If you wish to make comment or have any questions please contact XXXXXXXXX@cpaaustralia.com.au
Jim Dickson FCPA
President and Chairman
Shorten doesn’t need to be Sanders or Corbyn. (All Sanders achieved was to help Trump anyways). Our preferential voting system means he doesn’t need to lurch to the left. The reason preferred PM scores are low is because Greens think he is not left wing enough, cool enough, or charismatic enough or whatever. At the end of the day this is irrelevant as long as he gets %80 of preferences flowing his way.
I don’t understand this obsession of professional Greens with Shorten. No one gives a fuck about opposition leader mid-term and Shorten has shown he is a solid campaigner when it matters.
I have listened to him give a speech and ran into him on the streets of Melbourne and had a quick chat. Came across like a decent bloke.
Bemused – thanks for the climateactiontracker link – great find!
alias @ #1315 Friday, June 23, 2017 at 10:08 pm
On the other hand the right zinger could prove fatal for his opponent.
It only takes one, and that will do the trick.
Remember Monty Python? One f the most well loved sketch comedy shows of all time. Go back and watch those shows. Most of their sketches were pretty dire. It’s just that when they had a “hit” (Silly Walks, Dead Parrot, Nudge Nudge, Spanish Inquisition, etc) it was a home run. They are fondly remembered solely for their few hits, not their many misses.
So it is with Shorten’s zingers. It only takes one solid hit that goes viral and Turnbull (or his successor) is instantly confined to the rubbish bin of history.
Exactly what Ive asked.
He’s probably the only CE of the CPA that anyone outside the profession has ever heard of!
Confessions .. You didn’t ask anything. You just wrote the words “sure you do”, which would suggest you don’t believe I see those qualities in Tanya Plibersek – which is mystifying.
The UK Pound and Brexit:
A reversal of the long standing position of the Pound and the EURO –
Yes, I agree with that. But I find it ironic that it’s coming from you Alias, the one who wants to sack yet another leader mid stream, with all the disruption and ridicule that would bring for the party. Tanya Plibersek, for all her good qualities, wouldn’t stand a chance at the next election under those circumstances. I’m really surprised you can’t see that.
Darn .. Ditching an Opposition leader is not the same as ditching a sitting PM, not by a very long shot. Tanya Plibersek is a natural TV performer – authentic, persuasive, very smart, very articulate – not forgettingher withering dismissive facial expression she deploys so effectively. She is authentic and real, and it comes across powerfully.
I don’t believe you see those qualities in TB given you haven’t seen any qualities in Labor since forever. So yes, I’m calling bullshit on your sudden Plibersek love.
“Further Clinton has wide appeal among African-American voters”
Citation needed please. I’d argue the election proved quite the opposite.
jimmydoyle @ #1368 Friday, June 23, 2017 at 11:02 pm
All credit to whoever posted the link to the segment on AM. I just listened to that and followed up on the sources.
Should bring tears to P1’s eyes though.
I’m on record over a very long period supporting Plibersek as leader.
Alias – You’re not nearly as persuasive as Rex on Shorten.
alias @ #1375 Friday, June 23, 2017 at 11:18 pm
Terri Butler has also mastered the ‘withering dismissive facial expression’.
One to watch!
Yes Bemused .. Terri Butler is excellent too. Why is it that some women – and no male politicians that I can bring to mind _ seem to master that particular facial expression so effectively?
I agree with most of that, as far as it goes. But having to pick up the pieces of a deeply divided party and then get it ready to contest an election (no doubt an early one, called to take advantage of Labor’s turmoil) would be too much of an ask, for even the most skilful of leaders. I think Tanya would be much too smart to want to take something like that on.
alias Friday, June 23, 2017 at 9:21 pm
After a little bit of editing I’m sure Trump and Hanson supports would say the same thing about their favourite politicians.
Progressives have one thing the LNP doesn’t have ..and never will have ..GetUp!!
..at the last election they saw off three sitting Libs in Tassie & the useless pr*ck Jamie Briggs in my electorate of Mayo..
..next election they have a war chest to see off Dutton ..and no doubt have a list of other LNP marginals they will target!!
Luvly, innit!! 🙂
alias Friday, June 23, 2017 at 10:15 pm
Actually, the Opposition Leader prior to Shorten also contested successive elections.
I GOT THE NBN
Last night Ian Lamont (sp?) from the Clean Energy Finance Corporation was interviewed on ‘The Business’.
The first question he was asked was what he thought about the proposal that the government would change the law to make it something the CEFC could invest in.
His answer was that it would make little difference to the CEFC as Carbon Capture & Storage was not an attractive idea from an investment point of view anyway.
The program is available on IView. The segment starts at the 6 minute 45 second mark.
ShowsOn @ #1387 Friday, June 23rd, 2017 – 11:59 pm
Speedtest or it didn’t happen. Working NBN looks like this:
Who contested Federal elections ad Opposition Leader?
1993 Hewson lost
1996 Howard won
1998 Beasley lost
2001 Beasly lost
2004 Latham lost
2007 Rudd won
2010 Abbott lost
2013 Abbott won
2016 Shorten lost
So two Opposition leaders have contested successive elections in recent years, with a success rate on their second attempt of 50%.
Showson – When I scrolled past quickly it it looked like you said “I GOT THE BIN”.
showson @ #1387 Friday, June 23, 2017 at 11:59 pm
So can we expect to see more of you?
My ADSL is really going for it tonight …
Like usual our much vaunted trade agreements will prove to be worth ‘zip’ –
Pretty sure the voting public welcome good policy and a party that isn’t going to implode with internal rivalries. They’ve observed the measure of the shit show from both sides now and have basically had enough of it. Anything else (including diction) is pretty much immaterial because although authenticity in political rhetoric is an absolute imperative it is no longer possible to manufacture it, as the public are going to see straight through that.
Whitlam won his second election as Opposition Leader (but lost his third and fourth as Opposition leader). Evatt and Calwell lost 4 and 3 consecutive elections respectively as Opposition Leader (Evatt came closest on his second attempt in 1954, while Calwell very nearly won on his first attempt in 1961). Menzies won on his second attempt as Opposition Leader in 1949 (After previously being PM and scraping through as an incumbent in 1940 and then loosing his party`s support, who them lost crossbench support). Howard won on his second attempt as Opposition Leader, although they were not at consecutive elections. Peacock lost twice as Opposition Leader, again non-consecutively. Scullin won on his second attempt as Opposition Leader but lost on his third as Opposition Leader (after having lost as incumbent PM). Mathew Charlton and Frank Tudor (both ALP) lost on both their attempts. Fisher won as Opposition Leader twice, but lost as incumbent in-between (and had also previously had a minority government before there were majority governments). Cook won his second election, his only as Opposition Leader, but lost as an incumbent PM twice.
Could be ‘interesting’ –
Trump at it –
An entire station closed at Hurstville, well done LNP!