Labor’s lead remains steady at 52-48 in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (steady), 35% for Labor 35% (down one), 9% for Greens 9% (down one) and 9% for One Nation (up one), whose curious resurgence was the subject of an article I had in Crikey on Monday. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull down one on approval to 36% and down three on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten steady at 34% and down two to 43%; and Turnbull leading 39-26 on preferred prime minister, up from 39-31 last month. In other findings, the poll also records only 17% saying the recent budget improved their perception of the government, compared with 30% saying it made it worse; a 41-32 majority in favour of a clean energy target if it resulted in price rises of 5%, turning into a 50-21 deficit if they rose 10%; and 64% favouring investment in renewables in a no-strings-attached question compared with 18% for coal.
Also out yesterday was the Lowy Institute’s annual survey on Australian attitudes to international affairs and the direction of the country. Among many other things, the results find Australians continuing to rate the alliance with the United States highly (53% very important and 29% fairly important, recovering to near 2015 levels after a dip to 42% and 29% last year), with Donald Trump’s influence on perceptions of the US rating slightly less badly than George W. Bush in 2007 (60% said Trump contributed to an unfavourable opinion of the United States against 37% for no, compared with 69% and 27% for Bush). However, the proportion of respondents rating the US as Australia’s best friend has slumped from 35% to 17% since 2014, with the beneficiary being New Zealand, up from 32% to 53%. Only 20% now say they have a “great deal” of trust in the US to act responsibly in the world, compared with 40% in 2011.
alias @ #1274 Friday, June 23, 2017 at 9:32 pm
If you think that getting up and speaking publically without coming across as wooden, tedious, scripted, inauthentic, monotonal, rehearsed, plastic and/or boring why don’t you go join a public speaking club like Toastmasters and give it a go.
Once you’ve disovered that even giving a 5 – 7 minute speech without being any of the things you’ve just accused Bill Shorten of being, including the other thing’s he’s commonly accused of being isn’t that easy, you can go away, work hard on finding a way not to be any of those things when you speak, and then making the generous assumption that you find a way to do it, dispense some unsolicited advice to Bill and others about how to do it. You’ll make a fortune.
Grimace,
Here is a story on two stage gasification of garbage where the second stage uses plasma.
https://www.wired.com/2012/01/ff_trashblaster/
It can be energy intensive depending on the composition of the garbage.. BUT.. if you want a use for excess energy from wind/solar, this is one of the best uses.
He isn’t the only one here with a messiah penchant. I tend to ignore their obsessions and would suggest others do similarly.
P1, how about reading what I fucking wrote, you idiot. I said a capacity factor AT 2PM!
Grimace .. Your point is that because a random person, in this case me, might struggle to succeed as a public speaker (undoubtedly true) is the final binding argument as to why we should put up with Shorten?
I suppose someone has already pointed out that Corbyn is now the more popular option for PM in the UK. Not surprisingly really, giving the handling of the Grenfell disaster by both.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-theresa-may-poll-best-prime-minister-pm-latest-labour-conservatives-a7803911.html
cud chewer @ #1304 Friday, June 23, 2017 at 10:00 pm
Hmmm. Last time I checked, 2am was at night, not during the day. But of course I could see it was a typo – lighten up, for goodness sake. You’ll burst something!
Confessions .. I’m not looking for a Messiah by any stretch of the imagination. I’m looking for a somewhat inspirational political leader with good oratory skills and a level of authenticity.
I’m on record on many occasions as saying I think Tanya Plibersek would fit the bill very well indeed.
C@Tmomma – indeed! I’m tired of the attacks on Shorten’s supposed woodenness. It’s a desire for showmanship over substance.
Shorten has assembled and led team that has put together one of the most comprehensive opposition party platforms in recent memory, and has the ALP more ready for government than it has ever been – all in the face of a hostile media onslaught.
A monumental and unrivaled achievement.
Alias falling into Pauline Hanson White Australian Elitist territory now, and her criticism of autistic children for the sake of his argument, by criticising Bill Shorten for his speech impediment!
WRONG. This is where you show your lack of any expertise and unwillingness to inform yourself.. 100GWhr is more than enough to fill the gap between actual production and actual demand. Its not like the entire fucking system switches off at 4pm and then you need batteries for the rest of the evening. In an ideal system, solar will be somewhat over-provisioned (why not, its cheap) and there is also wind and other sources. On a hot summer day with the production peak at 2pm and the demand peak around 6pm, the actual need for stored energy is around 50GWhr. I was being conservative saying 100GWhr.
Corbyn and Sanders do have an air of authenticity to themselves. While they’ve be in politics a lot longer than many other leadership contenders, they’ve appeared to remain true to their beliefs. It seems that many of these beliefs are now in vogue, hence their popularity. Not having changed their beliefs that much may also be a contributing factor to that popularity . I must admit that I’d never heard of Jeremy Corbyn before he took the leadership (and all those problems) and Sanders only around 2009/10 when he started saying Wall St needed to be charged for the GFC.
I’ve also said that I think Shorten is boring. However I think a boring leader may be what is required right now (and I say that as not really being a Shorten fan). Howard was boring but ultimately successful for years. If Shorten is boring, I think that may be a positive given our revolving leadershit issues on both sides of the fence. Boring may translate to stability. That stability has also been gained because at least Labor made it harder to start leadership revolts.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-eu-citizens-rights-theresa-may-residency-offer-stay-jam-brussels-summit-a7804051.html
The Insular May fumbles again.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-eu-membership-dutch-pm-mark-rutte-hates-every-angle-a7803296.html
Dutch PM says he ‘hates Brexit from every angle’ and calls for form of continued EU membership for UK
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-gina-miller-david-davis-no-deal-confusion-european-union-a7804406.html
One year on from the EU referendum, it’s become clear that the EU will decide the Brexit deal
I give up. Fucking idiot. Why do I bother.
Ides .. I don’t dismiss the boring argument out of hand though I think what many people don’t understand is that it is potentially very dangerous in this social media driven environment. The “zingers” that Shaun Micallef had such fun with could easily go viral in the heat of an election campaign – and prove politically fatal. I really think people don’t quite grasp the significance of this weakness on Shorten’s part.
Night all. Campaign training tomorrow calls, and so an early night tonight. Maybe they might give me lessons in how to speak like a successful but wooden ALP leader then?
😉
Oh, and Alias, you better tell your Greens mates to replace their ‘wooden’ leader also. To be consistent.
And in shocking………….. NOT news Rupes feels the lurve
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rupert-murdoch-abused-heckled-hackney-cinema-picturehouse-jerry-hall-the-forgotten-man-a7804301.html
What makes anyone think I’m a member of the Greens? Baffling.
I lament the fact that the ALP and the Australian political landscape generally doesn’t have anyone with the guts or courage in their convictions of Sanders or Corbyn.
Bill’s zingers didn’t get in the way at the last election. Why should they at the next one?
The record of Messiahs in this country is patchy. A few have worked out well for their supporters – Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke and possibly Keating, for a while. The last named was loved by his supporters but widely loathed – too partisan to be a real Messiah. Then you have Hewson and Latham, who never got the prize. Maybe Evatt too – before my time. Some gained success for a while then crashed and burned – Rudd and Abbott. Malcolm will probably join them in due course, unless he can transition to boring but effective (some would say he’s completed the first part).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/23/jeremy-corbyn-now-viewed-capable-prime-minister-theresa-may/
Theresa May’s disastrous general election has had a major impact on her credibility as Prime Minister with Jeremy Corbyn now viewed as a better option to be premier.
A new YouGov poll for The Times suggests the Labour leader has overtaken Mrs May for the first time on the key question of who voters believe would make the best prime minister.
Mr Corbyn was on 35 per cent with Mrs May on 34 per cent and nearly a third (30 per cent) said they were unsure.
Corbyn is profiting from the comparison with May, whose duties include performing ritual acts of national self-destruction and bearing the shame of ritual humiliation on behalf of the misbegotten subjects of the UK.
cud chewer @ #1287 Friday, June 23, 2017 at 9:46 pm
You can’t, which is why I made it clear doing it on the basis of somewhat educated guesses. The system’s big advantage is near 100% uptime and that is something which massively drops the cost per kWh.
C@tmomma .. Several reasons: first, Shorten – if he survives that long – will be the first Opposition leader in a long time to contest successive elections. Second, the next election will be the first federal election at which social media will be utterly dominant. Third, much of the result of the last election was down to the early election and Turnbull’s mis-steps so Shorten went under the radar. He may do so again – but it’s a big gamble.
Alias:
The ‘zingers’ need to go. Shorten does not have the rhetorical wit of Keating and should stop trying to emulate them. It comes across as flat and try hardish. Shorten may benefit personally from being boring, but there is also others in Labor that can perform the social media cut throughs. I do agree thought that Shorten comes across as wooden at times, though others here claim he is very good at town halls away from the media.
cud chewer @ #1295 Friday, June 23, 2017 at 9:50 pm
There are a lot of ideas out there. The company I worked for straight out of uni (I worked for shared services) had a business unit which turned plastic back into diesel.
The major impediment to all of these technologies, which are technically feasible, is making them economically feasible.
I would argue that’s because a leader in the Corbyn/Sanders mould is not necessary in Australia. Australian social democracy is far stronger than in the US and the UK – we have it for a start. For all our faults (and we have plenty of them), in neither the US nor the UK is school funding front and centre in public debate – nor are they likely to be for the forseeable future. In neither country is there such a strong public consensus around the basic provision of public goods. That’s why the Liberals have to lie their way into office.
The Australian Labor Party is firmly part of that consensus. Yes, it’s made plenty of mistakes (here’s looking at you Paul and Julia), but Labor’s commitment to social democracy is not a matter of internal division as it in UK Labour, nor is it a minority position as in the Democratic Party.
Bill Shorten might be daggy and low-key, but he is a rock-solid social democrat – and that’s all any progressive should care about – not whether he can deliver a zinger.
Labor will win the next election whenever it’s held and Bill Shorten will become PM. He will do a very good job. Nearly everyone has underestimated Shorten. They did the same thing with Howard.
Really, under-expectancy is a great resource to have. For contrast, consider that the MSM and voters in general have expected way too much of Turnbull, who has been able to deliver next to nothing of substance.
‘If the DNC had recognised this at the right moment and got behind him, we’d be talking about President Bernie Sanders today.’
If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
Alias
Do you always assume people with speech defects are thick?
You’re sounding more like a PHON supporter than a leftie.
alias @ #1305 Friday, June 23, 2017 at 10:01 pm
My point is that getting up to speak in the way that you are expecting Shorten to, on any topic, at any time and without any sort of notice about what he’ll be talking about is very, very difficult.
There are times I’ve seen Shorten speak when his delivery has been ordinary, there have been times he’s been brilliant. None of us can be 100% all the time. Earlier in the thread, someone brought up the speaking ability of Hawke and Keating, 25 to 35 years on we only remember and see the footage of their best speeches, nobody ever remembers the ordinary ones.
Grimace, I’d love to see wave power being a large chunk of the overall mix. WA is fortunate to have good waves. Where I am (Newcastle) its less consistent.
Its even been suggested to me to use a Carnegie system to heft water up to a pumped hydro storage. I’m still looking for actual costs. And you’re right, they are a bit secretive.
Briefly – I’ve noticed that the people who underestimate Shorten are nearly always the same people who overestimated Turnbull.
Funny that.
Shorten needs to take a leaf from Corbyns book and start giving boring thoughtful answers to questions rather than trying to speak in slogans and sound-bytes as the marketing people keep encouraging him to do.
Yeah, I can remember Keating having a fairly ordinary day in Parliament. But generally I used to tune into QT because it was nearly always fun 🙂
I don’t think it’s a speech defect – it’s just lazy. And it doesn’t sound prime ministerial. It may sound elitist but we expect clear enunciation of those aspiring to leader the country. Before electronic media you could get away with poor diction or a painful accent but not any more. It’s just a fact of modern political life.
Blanket Criticism – I think that’s sound advice to Shorten. Being accused of being boring is far less damaging than being a fake.
I’d love to believe your Briefly. I just don’t know yet if there is enough anger towards Turnbull or whether there’s a lot of “wait and see” going on. A lot of people still buy into the narrative that Turnbull is a good guy and just needs to deliver. How people react to Gonski 2.0.13-a will be telling.
They don’t exist. Rudd was the last leader with those qualities but didn’t have the substance or the authenticity to follow through. He was a dud.
‘The “zingers” that Shaun Micallef had such fun with could easily go viral in the heat of an election campaign – and prove politically fatal…’
Well, we’ve had an election campaign and Shorten increased the Labor vote, zingers or not.
If we really want to talk about failed progressive leaders, what about the Black Wiggle?
‘I lament the fact that the ALP and the Australian political landscape generally doesn’t have anyone with the guts or courage in their convictions of Sanders or Corbyn.’
If Sanders actually had guts and courage, he would have joined the Democrats decades ago, instead of not being one until it suited him.
Grimace .. I was able to see Keating up close on several occasions speaking impromptu. He had the intellect, vocabulary and the passion to speak with conviction and impressive oratory on every occasion. He was a natural. It was inspiring. Even when he wasn’t speaking, his facial expressions alone could be devastating.
Yeah nah.
I have two words for you that’ll make the babes burst out crying:
Tony Abbott.
JimmyDoyle
Friday, June 23, 2017 at 10:26 pm
Briefly – I’ve noticed that the people who underestimate Shorten are nearly always the same people who overestimated Turnbull.
Funny that.
We’ve had a run of very poor leaders….people who have lacked the ability to focus, make astute decisions, wisely exercise discretion and draw people together. Shorten is good at these things. Power will fit naturally in his hands. There’s no doubt about that.
Confessions . . I see all these qualities in Tanya Plibersek. I honestly do.
JimmyDoyle.. You know very well that R-G-R delivered the gift of government to Abbott. He would never have come within a bull’s roar in ordinary circumstances.
I’d argue that Sanders joined the democrats when they needed him (a decent left-wing candidate) and not when he needed the democrats.
Don’t see the problem with “zingers”.
Sanders had a hard time winning the Democratic nomination. The DNC is tied to the hip of the Clintons, the higher ups didnt like Sanders + he was a ring in to them (even though he caucused with the Demo in the senate – just like Sen. King in Maine). Further Clinton has wide appeal among African-American voters – why I dont understand – where as Sanders appealed to white, young, and educated in the Northern/Mid West states which normally dont swing and are locked in the blue firewall.
I wish that Sanders had received the nomination, at least to have a real different election campaign. I think Sanders would have easily carried the states that Clinton lost in the Mid-west (Michigan, Pennslyvannia etc) but struggled in Virginia, North Carolina etc. Colorado would be an easy win for Sanders where as he would have won California by a smaller margin. If he had won however, Congress would have potentially been difficult to manage.
Alias – you’re absolutely right, and Abbott-Turnbull-??? will help gift government to Shorten and the ALP – along with sound policies and teamplaying.