BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Two new polls fail to make much difference to the aggregated two-party reading, although One Nation has bounced back after a recent fallow patch.

New results from Newspoll and Essential Research have failed to have any impact on BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred reading, but there’s one point worth noting on the primary vote, with the recent lift in One Nation’s poll ratings finally kicking into action on the trend measurement (more on that here if you’re a Crikey subscriber). Last week I noted signs that Labor’s surge in Western Australia was abating, with two seats flipping back to the Coalition on the seat projection, but this week they’ve flipped back again. However, this is counterbalanced by one gain apiece for the Coalition in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll and Essential both provide new numbers on personal ratings, which result in both leaders taking a uptick on net approval, and Malcolm Turnbull slightly improving on preferred prime minister.

Also of note:

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published its third interim report from its inquiry into last year’s federal election, this time into modernisation of the Australian Electoral Commission. The report gives a sympathetic hearing to the AEC’s complaints that it has lacked the resources to keep pace with technological change, and is unduly straitjacketed by an overly prescriptive Electoral Act. Most significantly, it recommends trials be conducted of electronic counting of House of Representatives ballot papers, building upon the scheme introduced for the new Senate system last year, whereby manual data entry is supplemented by scanning and optical character recognition. The significance of apparent Russian efforts to hack into American electoral systems has been duly noted elsewhere.

• Antony Green has published his usual statistical review of the Western Australian election for the state parliament. This one is particularly interesting in that it features comprehensive data on preference flows for each minor party, which I don’t believe I’ve ever seen from a state election before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,098 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. Don

    However I had to buy (a leaf blower) because the ride on mower bloke refused to service my machine if I continued to bring it in covered with grass clippings.

    Please expline!

  3. One point about cloud backups, the first one will take a long time, subsequent ones should just do changes.
    Also while it is uploading the net will appear very slow, possibility unusable. Most internet services have low bandwidth for uploads – which the backup service will consume. Of course if you have proper NBN then this probably doesn’t apply.

  6. bemused @ #952 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 6:35 pm

    c@tmomma @ #932 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 6:13 pm

    You can also use a vacuum cleaner to clean out the dust from your computer. Use the narrow nozzle. However, if you are a real nerd, buy a computer vacuum cleaner.

    Sigh… damned emoji got me again.
    I said something about using the vacuum cleaner to blow as it is more effective at shifting dust.
    Computer vacuum cleaners of the battery powered type are useless.
    There are accessory sets that will fit on the hose of a standard vacuum cleaner that are much more effective.

  7. Everyone tells me Pyne is genuinely hilarious in company, and everyone who has seen him on TV knows that boastfulness is part of his schtick. The tape is, mostly, exactly what you’d expect. Big deal.

    There are three reasons it’s still a problem for Turnbull.

    The first is that someone was motivated enough to leak it. Of course gossip like this always flows from party events. But in this case somebody at a gathering of supposedly like-minded Liberals made a deliberate decision to tape what was said and then pass it on to Andrew Bolt, who everyone knows hates Turnbull. Taping your colleagues at a social function is an incredibly low political act. If these are the depths to which Turnbull’s enemies will sink, then the pressure on him will never go away.

    The second is the reaction it will provoke. Again, there is nothing revelatory in Pyne’s comments – all of Australia knows Turnbull is a moderate – or surprising about the fact that Pyne made them. But now they have been made public. They will be printed in newspapers and broadcast on television.

    Complaining that much of politics is about pride will not stop it from being so. The conservatives will be furious that Pyne’s triumphalism is being disseminated to the nation. That is a serious blow to Turnbull’s strategy of the past few months.
    …
    Third and final problem: the one comment that Pyne made that in itself was interesting was the suggestion that marriage equality might happen “sooner than everyone thinks. And your friends in Canberra are working on that outcome.”

    This is a trigger issue for the right of the Coalition. Once Turnbull moves on this, anything might happen. Pyne’s vague suggestion that such a move might not be so far away is legitimately interesting.

    But that is only because we are talking about the odd reality that is Canberra. Shifting, for a moment, to actual reality, the one most Australians inhabit, the idea that Pyne’s comments should create trouble is absurd, and highlights the stubborn insanity that makes Turnbull’s job so hard.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/sean-kelly/2017/26/2017/1498457865/turnbull-s-careful-strategy-was-undercut-today

  8. Federal Health Minister missing in action?

    The Andrews Labor Government has stepped in to ensure thousands of Victorian teenagers are protected from Meningococcal W, with the roll out of life saving vaccinations. Minister for Health Jill Hennessy today visited Werribee Secondary College and met with high school students – among the latest to receive their vaccinations under the Labor Government’s free school-based regime. The Victorian Labor Government has been forced to go it alone to deliver vaccinations for 15 to 19 year olds because Malcolm Turnbull has failed to get his act together and fund a national response through the National Immunisations Program. So far, 51,000 doses have been distributed to local council immunisation services to deliver in Victorian schools, under the $7.1 million program. There has been a concerning spike in the number of Meningococcal W cases recently, with 48 reported in 2016 – up from just one in 2013. The W strain is now the most dominant strain Meningococcal disease, which can be deadly.

    http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/turnbull-maintains-deadly-silence-on-menin-w-funding/

  9. Guytaur
    Monday, June 26, 2017 at 6:37 pm
    Question.

    First line of defence. Encrypt everything yourself.

    Does require remembering another password

    I do that with my ‘office’ type stuff. I put the drive that syncs to the cloud inside an freebie encryption wrapper, which scrambles the files as I use them before they are synced. Problem is, the crooks can still scramble the files again with their own encryption.

  10. Website for ‘Right to Repair’. http://ifixit.org/right

    We have the right
    &gt to open everything we own
    &gt to modify and repair our things
    &gt to unlock and jailbreak the software in our electronics

    We must have access
    &gt to repair information
    &gt to products that can be repaired
    &gt to reasonably-priced, independent repair shops

  11. bemused @ #960 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 6:48 pm

    Website for ‘Right to Repair’. http://ifixit.org/right
    We have the right
    &gt to open everything we own
    &gt to modify and repair our things
    &gt to unlock and jailbreak the software in our electronics
    We must have access
    &gt to repair information
    &gt to products that can be repaired
    &gt to reasonably-priced, independent repair shops

    Damn… what did I do wrong there?

  14. Blasted emoji gets me every time.

    Tony Abbott’s most recent trip to Israel – where he received an honorary doctorate – was paid for by Jewish lobby group.

  15. zoidlord @ #962 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 6:52 pm

    You can also use small air compressor to clean your computer insides, including hard to reach places…

    A good blast with a big one will do it. Gets in everywhere. Amazing the amount of dust that accumulates, so don’t do it in the house or even in a shed or garage. Too messy.

  16. Question

    Thats what onsite backkup is for.

    Just go back. Change the password before creating a new cloud backup. Wipe the old one. Bloody annoying procedure. Does not reward crptolock ransomware though.

  18. lizzie @ #957 Monday, June 26th, 2017 – 6:43 pm

    Everyone tells me Pyne is genuinely hilarious in company, and everyone who has seen him on TV knows that boastfulness is part of his schtick. The tape is, mostly, exactly what you’d expect. Big deal.

    There are three reasons it’s still a problem for Turnbull.

    The first is that someone was motivated enough to leak it. Of course gossip like this always flows from party events. But in this case somebody at a gathering of supposedly like-minded Liberals made a deliberate decision to tape what was said and then pass it on to Andrew Bolt, who everyone knows hates Turnbull. Taping your colleagues at a social function is an incredibly low political act. If these are the depths to which Turnbull’s enemies will sink, then the pressure on him will never go away.

    The second is the reaction it will provoke. Again, there is nothing revelatory in Pyne’s comments – all of Australia knows Turnbull is a moderate – or surprising about the fact that Pyne made them. But now they have been made public. They will be printed in newspapers and broadcast on television.

    Complaining that much of politics is about pride will not stop it from being so. The conservatives will be furious that Pyne’s triumphalism is being disseminated to the nation. That is a serious blow to Turnbull’s strategy of the past few months.
    …
    Third and final problem: the one comment that Pyne made that in itself was interesting was the suggestion that marriage equality might happen “sooner than everyone thinks. And your friends in Canberra are working on that outcome.”

    This is a trigger issue for the right of the Coalition. Once Turnbull moves on this, anything might happen. Pyne’s vague suggestion that such a move might not be so far away is legitimately interesting.

    But that is only because we are talking about the odd reality that is Canberra. Shifting, for a moment, to actual reality, the one most Australians inhabit, the idea that Pyne’s comments should create trouble is absurd, and highlights the stubborn insanity that makes Turnbull’s job so hard.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/sean-kelly/2017/26/2017/1498457865/turnbull-s-careful-strategy-was-undercut-today

    It could also be hyperbolic over reach by the usual suspects. The RWNJ are not numerate . But, they are noisy and noxious. Turnbull and crew run the Party. They’ll pick off the dissenters at their own leisure.
    Turnbull blames the RWNJs for the Government’s poor polling. I doubt that it’s in his DNA to concede anything further.

  19. Guytaur,
    Well that’s right. Cant have too many backups : )
    I also do a lot of stuff that is way too big to put on the cloud with current… ahem… Australian internet speeds…

  20. Lizzie
    I agree that leafblowers are an abomination. There are many better things to do in one’s limited lifespan than moving dead leaves around in that fashion.

  21. GG

    Turnbull is correct to think that. The RWNJ’s exposed the spine pretending to be a jellyfish to the voters.

  22. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/26/nt-intervention-seen-as-act-of-war-on-aboriginal-people-nova-peris-says

    Former Labor senator Nova Peris says the Northern Territory intervention was seen as an “act of war” declared by the government on Aboriginal people.

    This month marks the 10th anniversary of the Howard government’s emergency response into remote NT Indigenous communities, which was implemented after reports of widespread child sexual abuse.

    Peris, Australia’s first female Aboriginal federal parliamentarian, said the intervention was “partly about a land grab under the guise of other things that demonised us all as a race of First Nations people”.

    The controversial package of welfare, justice and health measures was rolled out in more than 70 communities, and Labor’s 2012 Stronger Futures legislation has continued its work.

  25. Not that the timing for any leak like Pyne’s is every going to be good, but it can’t help after the Labor lite budget, Gonski2.1 and the Finkel inquiry.
    The CPG were writing wtte that Turnbull had his mojo back.

  27. Saw this in the comments section of the Oz from Patricia.
    Patricia 2 DAYS AGO
    Once again a right wing commentator misses the bleeding obvious while fixating on the beltway bubble babble.

    The real denominators of the Coalitions’ doom are falling real wages, increasing household debt, increasing precarious employment, falling hours worked, increasing underemployment, employment growth not even matching population growth, reduced savings, increased costs for the basics and a succession of sneaky attempts by the Liberals and the Nationals to pinch a bit here and pinch a bit here from the workers, the working poor, and the flat-out poor. All this while giving the wealthy a nice little lift in their take home pay by way of chopping out the deficit levy. (Is the deficit fixed, then?). And all the while proposing a freebie of $65 billion to the foreign elites who own all the big multi national corporations.

    Nothing illustrates better how out of touch the Liberals and the Nationals are than that they will be picking up fatter pay checks on the very same day that Australia’s poorest and most precarious workers – temps and part timers in the hospitality, retail and agriculture sectors – will be taking home far less pay because of the penalty rate cuts.

    And what will this bit of uninspired ideological lunacy achieve, apart from growing the size of Turnbull’s Underclass? The Government of the Reserve Bank is worried that falling consumer buying power is bad for the economy. One calculation is that workers in the rural and regional areas alone will have around $600 million less a year to spend.

    Now THAT is a lot of denomination!

  29. Bemused

    Damn… what did I do wrong there?

    If you were wanting to use the “greater than” symbol as bullets – then you need to add a semicolon directly after the &gt bit of code.

  30. ShowsOn has sent the following update:
    MOFOS,
    NBN STILL FARQUED (FARQUING MALCOLM TURNBULL)
    SUCH AN INAPPROPRIATE TIME CONSIDERING BOB SEGER’S BACK CATALOGUE IS NOW ON SPOTIFY
    OVER AND OUT.

  34. It might pay you to look up a tenplay.com repeat of tonight’s episode of The Project because Steve Price, firstly did an interview with Conservative Craig Kelly where he called bs on Kelly’s denial that there was a civil war going on in the Liberal Party, right, now. Also, Steve Price added commentary of his own after an advertising break.

  39. Apologies if I missed it earlier today, but have others seen this InDaily post about the Federal Liberal vote decline in SA? Now down to 44/56 2pp. That is nearly four points down on the July 2016 election result. Chris Pyne must be nervous.
    http://indaily.com.au/news/2017/06/26/sa-voters-turn-federal-liberals/

    I think SA residents realise now that all the subsidies saved by Canbera from the car industry closure have been pocketed and spent elsewhere, while the sub money will not begin to flow for years. Unemployment is up, as are power prices, and the state does not have the cash to quickly fix either (though the bank tax is a great start).

  40. Sadly, I missec the wise computer scientist discussion this afternoon, my 2 bits worth.

    One reason why turning your machine on/off is that computer programs use memory to store instructions or maintain state. At a lower level, binary switches are retained in registers on the silicon chip – the building block on which the layered applications can function. The Cloud is no different to the TimeShare Mainframe on which the concept is modelled, with our PCs, tablets and smartphones being (largely) consumers.

    De powering your machine (or rebooting the loud server) has the effect of flushing the registers and memory of stray code, which can leak out of programs and cause abberant behaviour (like freezing, slow performance, crashes, inability to interface correctly). This is a good thing, as you start with a clean slate.

  41. BTW I renewed my Crikey subscription again today. Thanks to all concerned for keeping up the fight to have independent journalism alive in Australia.

  42. GG

    Yep. And Turnbull and Co are not concerned or interested in offering any semblance of reform in this space. Their focus is purely to ensure their Luvvies get the biggest part of the pie

  43. Ever since the po-faced Steve Price appeared on The Project, I stopped watching. So Big Gina’s ‘win’, she insisted on balance, caused me and hundreds of thousands of other progressives to vote with our remotes. Now the franchise is down the gurgler, descended to internal Liberal RWNJ wars which nobody cares about.

  44. Good evening all,

    I think the one big issue for Turnbull resulting from ” Pynegate” ( if the MSM can add gate at every opportunity so can I ! ) is he has been forced to reaffirm his support for the plebiscite. Once again his moderate and progressive persona is dealt a blow as is his credibility. Plays into the labor theme of Turnbull standing for nothing and being a puppet of the right wing.

    Cheers.

  46. Nothing illustrates better how out of touch the Liberals and the Nationals are than that they will be picking up fatter pay checks on the very same day that Australia’s poorest and most precarious workers – temps and part timers in the hospitality, retail and agriculture sectors – will be taking home far less pay because of the penalty rate cuts.

    What a great comment! And it reminds me of a facebook post I saw from (I think) Buzzfeed which had a photo of Turnbull and Shorten with words that said something like politicians getting a payrise on same day penalty rates cut. As if the two sides are even equal on this issue. They are not. Labor has been campaigning strongly against the penalty rate cut whereas the coalition not so much – chalk and cheese!

  47. I see Graeme ‘the Pig’ Morris is on qanda tonight.

    I hope he is ‘kicked to death’ – as was his wish upon FPMJG. Alternatively, the ABC ‘cows’ (looking at tou, Leigh) might empty their udders upon him, hopefully after he is tarred and feathered and locked up in stocks.

  48. vogon poet @ #933 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    Don, sounds like you made a bong with a supercharger

    Not a bad description!

    We are native plant nuts, my wife runs an online nursery for frost hardy native plants, http://coolnatives.com.au/catalogue.html , grows difficult to propagate native plants such as Actinotus (flannel flowers) and it has been discovered that water which has had smoke from (typically) Eucalypt bark and twigs and scraps of wood helps greatly in germination of seedlings of Australian native plants, as well as encouraging flowering in grass trees (Xanthorrhoea sp.).

    What you do is get a twenty litre drum and attach appropriate pipes, set a fire going on sand in the bottom of it, add more fuel, put the lid on, and collect the smokey air which comes out by bubbling it through water. The water turns brown and foul, and no doubt contains more cancer inducing compounds than you could find anywhere, but helps greatly in breaking germination inhibition in many Australian plants which need a bushfire to germinate.

    But it is not an easy procedure. Gaffer tape is an essential ingredient, hoses and plastic connectors get too hot, start to melt and need to be hosed down, the fire is either too hot or too cold, but it is a lot of fun.

    And at the end of it, you have twenty or fifty litres of smoked water. It keeps forever (cancer producing chemicals are like that) and works a treat.

  49. bemused @ #918 Monday, June 26th, 2017 – 5:19 pm

    Say you have backed up onto your seagate gizmo.
    Then you want to do another backup and proceed to delete the old backup and create the new, but your computer crashes half way through?
    So you really need space for more than one backup to avoid overwriting or having to delete a good backup before you have a more up-to-date backup.

    Most purpose-built ‘backup gizmos’ these days will ship with software that implements an incremental backup strategy. As in, you create the initial backup of everything, and then for subsequent backups only the things that have actually changed are stored again.

    So you don’t necessarily need space for multiple complete backups. As long as you’re using a program to manage your backups (as opposed to manually dragging files around), you should be able to get away with space for 1.5 backups or less.

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