BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Two new polls fail to make much difference to the aggregated two-party reading, although One Nation has bounced back after a recent fallow patch.

New results from Newspoll and Essential Research have failed to have any impact on BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred reading, but there’s one point worth noting on the primary vote, with the recent lift in One Nation’s poll ratings finally kicking into action on the trend measurement (more on that here if you’re a Crikey subscriber). Last week I noted signs that Labor’s surge in Western Australia was abating, with two seats flipping back to the Coalition on the seat projection, but this week they’ve flipped back again. However, this is counterbalanced by one gain apiece for the Coalition in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll and Essential both provide new numbers on personal ratings, which result in both leaders taking a uptick on net approval, and Malcolm Turnbull slightly improving on preferred prime minister.

Also of note:

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published its third interim report from its inquiry into last year’s federal election, this time into modernisation of the Australian Electoral Commission. The report gives a sympathetic hearing to the AEC’s complaints that it has lacked the resources to keep pace with technological change, and is unduly straitjacketed by an overly prescriptive Electoral Act. Most significantly, it recommends trials be conducted of electronic counting of House of Representatives ballot papers, building upon the scheme introduced for the new Senate system last year, whereby manual data entry is supplemented by scanning and optical character recognition. The significance of apparent Russian efforts to hack into American electoral systems has been duly noted elsewhere.

• Antony Green has published his usual statistical review of the Western Australian election for the state parliament. This one is particularly interesting in that it features comprehensive data on preference flows for each minor party, which I don’t believe I’ve ever seen from a state election before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,098 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 19 of 22
1 … 18 19 20 … 22

  4. Dan Gulberry,

    As the keeper of the lists, I feel you may need to furnish us with the list again soon…..

    Side point: given The Australian’s articles – is this it? The defenstration?

  6. Bemused

    Am reporting back. Rang a local computer specialist and he came and fixed it after lunch.
    He couldn’t find what went wrong so he cleaned it out and all working now. And I’ve backed up all docs!!!

    Wunderbar!

  7. Turning equipment off then on again (or ‘cycling the equipment’ as they say in NASA) is the first thing to try for something that isn’t working properly. The problem often goes away, even if you never know why.

  8. Yes, works great except in the 1% of cases where the equipment completely fails to power back on. Then you’ve just made your problem ten times worse.

  9. Greg Sheridan’s article in the Australian today on the liberal party can be summarised in one phrase: “Fire in the hole.” According to Greg, it’s all about to blow.

  10. Lizzie, glad to hear your good news and i am sure Question will be too.
    From your description i was pretty sure the outcome would be good.
    How do you backup? To what device?

  13. Bemused

    This was just a simple USB for all the docs & pics, but my son has given me a seagate portable storage gizmo that will take the whole disk, I think.

  14. steve777 @ #907 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 4:46 pm

    Turning equipment off then on again (or ‘cycling the equipment’ as they say in NASA) is the first thing to try for something that isn’t working properly. The problem often goes away, even if you never know why.

    A word of caution on that.
    Things may have improved, but PC Power supplies used to have a device to limit the initial current surge when a computer was turned on. It had a relatively high resistance when cold but it quickly dropped away when it warmed up.
    If you turned the computer off and then back on before that device cooled sufficiently, then your power supply got a big surge which could and often did kill the power supply.
    So the recommendation used to be to wait 30 seconds before turning back on.
    A good idea even if modern developments have made if less necessary.

  16. antonbruckner11 @ #909 Monday, June 26th, 2017 – 4:52 pm

    Greg Sheridan’s article in the Australian today on the liberal party can be summarised in one phrase: “Fire in the hole.” According to Greg, it’s all about to blow.

    There’s certainly a lot of sound and fury. But, in the end there is always more said than done. A move by the Abbott forces against Turnbull will sour the well for them in the future. A move by Turnbull to discipline or expel them will create relentless undermining.

    Will the lure of the “precious” white cars of power be the only means to save the LNP.

  17. lizzie @ #913 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 5:05 pm

    Bemused
    This was just a simple USB for all the docs & pics, but my son has given me a seagate portable storage gizmo that will take the whole disk, I think.

    A word of caution on backing up.
    Say you have backed up onto your seagate gizmo.
    Then you want to do another backup and proceed to delete the old backup and create the new, but your computer crashes half way through?
    So you really need space for more than one backup to avoid overwriting or having to delete a good backup before you have a more up-to-date backup.
    There are various schemes for doing this and good backup software will advise you on what to do.

  22. So the recommendation used to be to wait 30 seconds before turning back on.

    Yes – I forgot to add that. Turn off, wait 30 seconds, cross fingers, turn back on.

  23. Bemused…great idea. I use a 2TB ( terrabyte ) usb powered drive for back up .I paid $100 for mine ….I think you get them even cheaper now. Allows multiple backups.

  24. Best thing for a computer is to blow it out periodically with a leaf blower. Don’t let the little fans spin though or you’ll bugger the bearings.

  25. I am looking forward to Chris Pine trying to stop the LNP division on QandA tonight. Especially as its not Tony Jones hosting but Virginia Trioli instead.

  26. Internships are a clear example of exploitation and often illegal. If Labor wants to do a Corbyn at the next Australian election, or the union movement wants to arrest declining membership, it is high time they tackle this issue. There are now more university graduates than apprentices each year, and neither unions nor professional associations protect the individuals. It is a huge opportunity for new members and relevance, if the Labour movement got serious about it.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-26/unpaid-internships-millennials-share-their-stories/8651020

  28. Macs have a ‘feature’ which I have encountered a few times. It gets harder and harder to get the computer to turn on. I asked the computer fixer to just put a light switch on the back, he told me he’d be glad to, but they don’t work like that.

    It first shows itself typically after four years in use. Expensive to get fixed unless it is still in warranty.

    I don’t switch off the computer any more, hoping that the problem will never manifest itself if the on/off switch is rarely used.

  29. lizzie @ #927 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 6:03 pm

    Trog
    Leaf blowers are an abomination.

    Indeed.

    However I had to buy one because the ride on mower bloke refused to service my machine if I continued to bring it in covered with grass clippings.

    And it came in handy when the hair dryer failed when I was making smoked water. A bit of gaffer tape et voila!

  30. Thanks Bemused. Yes Lizzie, good to hear about your computer.

    Google drive and OneDrive are great, but won’t save you from crypto lock (because the encrypted files will sync to the cloud). There are cloud backup services keep older versions, which is more secure (maybe Google and MS have paid versions that will do that?).

    If you ever have a crypto lock, don’t let your backups anywhere near the machine until after you factory reset and are happy it is clean. Can’t have too many backups. I learned early in my computing when a hard disk died on me.

  32. You can also use a vacuum cleaner to clean out the dust from your computer. Use the narrow nozzle. However, if you are a real nerd, buy a computer vacuum cleaner. 🙂

  34. I also saw an 8TB External Hard Drive on Special today for $339. (I’ve been looking at parts to build a new computer with my son today).

  37. Unpaid internships should be made illegal, other than as part of a short ‘work experience’ stint for students on a properly accredited University / Tafe course. There should be jail sentences for employers who engage them.

  38. greg mcauliffe @ #923 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 5:31 pm

    Bemused…great idea. I use a 2TB ( terrabyte ) usb powered drive for back up .I paid $100 for mine ….I think you get them even cheaper now. Allows multiple backups.

    I can tell quite a few tales about backup mishaps.
    Were my Internet connection and my finances better, I would be taking up a Microsoft offer which gives, from memory, 100GB cloud storage plus Office 365 subscription for $100 per year.

  40. trog sorrenson @ #924 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 5:43 pm

    Best thing for a computer is to blow it out periodically with a leaf blower. Don’t let the little fans spin though or you’ll bugger the bearings.

    What a woos… leaf blower indeed! I have used compressed air to really shift the dust.
    Gives a spotless result, never had a problem.

  43. C@t

    You can also use a vacuum cleaner to clean out the dust from your computer

    Compressed air is better than vacuum. I use an electric leaf blower because the air stream is free of condensation and oil particles – unlike a standard workshop compressor. Put a bit of tape – or a finger – on the cooling fan blades wherever there are cooling fans. Stops them spinning at greater than design speed.

  44. don @ #928 Monday, June 26, 2017 at 6:05 pm

    Macs have a ‘feature’ which I have encountered a few times. It gets harder and harder to get the computer to turn on. I asked the computer fixer to just put a light switch on the back, he told me he’d be glad to, but they don’t work like that.
    It first shows itself typically after four years in use. Expensive to get fixed unless it is still in warranty.
    I don’t switch off the computer any more, hoping that the problem will never manifest itself if the on/off switch is rarely used.

    Sounds like you should get in touch with the ‘right to fix’ people to see what they know about it.
    Also, it wouldn’t hurt to get ACCC involved.

  46. Just got Reachtelled.
    A bit of fluff about social media but only question that mattered was 1st Pref if a Fed Election held now. Plus age group and gender.

  49. CTar1
    Monday, June 26, 2017 at 6:13 pm
    Q.
    crypto lock
    As in the virus?

    Ransom-ware. Yes I guess you could call it a virus, but they usually deploy by tricking you into running them rather than through the back door. It’s generally easier for criminals to con people rather than hack them. But once deployed it behaves like a virus, doing all sorts of things you don’t want, like encrypting your files.

Comments Page 19 of 22
1 … 18 19 20 … 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *