New results from Newspoll and Essential Research have failed to have any impact on BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred reading, but there’s one point worth noting on the primary vote, with the recent lift in One Nation’s poll ratings finally kicking into action on the trend measurement (more on that here if you’re a Crikey subscriber). Last week I noted signs that Labor’s surge in Western Australia was abating, with two seats flipping back to the Coalition on the seat projection, but this week they’ve flipped back again. However, this is counterbalanced by one gain apiece for the Coalition in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll and Essential both provide new numbers on personal ratings, which result in both leaders taking a uptick on net approval, and Malcolm Turnbull slightly improving on preferred prime minister.
Also of note:
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published its third interim report from its inquiry into last year’s federal election, this time into modernisation of the Australian Electoral Commission. The report gives a sympathetic hearing to the AEC’s complaints that it has lacked the resources to keep pace with technological change, and is unduly straitjacketed by an overly prescriptive Electoral Act. Most significantly, it recommends trials be conducted of electronic counting of House of Representatives ballot papers, building upon the scheme introduced for the new Senate system last year, whereby manual data entry is supplemented by scanning and optical character recognition. The significance of apparent Russian efforts to hack into American electoral systems has been duly noted elsewhere.
• Antony Green has published his usual statistical review of the Western Australian election for the state parliament. This one is particularly interesting in that it features comprehensive data on preference flows for each minor party, which I don’t believe I’ve ever seen from a state election before.
ClubeGaffer: .@RDNS_TAI tells #NexGen17 about the right wing ratchet. Cut your mates taxes in booms. Create a deficit. Cut spending on services we need
Trog
CloverMoore: While I think it’s priceless, putting this dollar figure on the Reef shows it’s too important to let slip away. smh.com.au/environment/gr…
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/great-barrier-reef-valued-at-56-billion-by-deloitte-economists-20170625-gwy2yj.html
Dutton is unlikely to practically save Queensland seats, he might save a couple from PHON but that makes little practical difference at the Federal level because PHON votes with the Government extremely reliably on major legislation. And Dutton is likely to cost inner city seats.
Dutton is only appealing to people who want Abbott but know that he’s done.
At least the UK is finally getting with the program:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leader-jeremy-corbyn-more-popular-opinion-polls-theresa-may-brexit-sunday-times-philip-a7807421.html
Is there any chance that the libs will win one single Muslim vote at the next election? Surely, that is a hell of a lot of voters in marginal electorates.
A11
It takes a lot of doing to lose Jewish, Muslim Women Racially diverse and Gay voters but the LNP is doing it.
Funny how saying politically correct is over done and then you do things against equality and thus the Fair Go all gels together to bring you undone in the polls.
Antonbruckner11
The very conservative demographic a might. The stance on various social issues would find some accord between them and the ‘Kevin Andrews’.
The Coalitions greatest weakness at the moment is the inability to commit to anything but crazy and border protection. They do something that tries to win over new voters , which potentially costs some old voters, then the backbench revolts and they piss off both sets. It’d be impressively choreographed if it wasn’t so obviously completely accidental. Its like someone dancing Swan Lake by trying to avoid a bee.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leader-jeremy-corbyn-more-popular-opinion-polls-theresa-may-brexit-sunday-times-philip-a7807421.html
It’s times like this that I really miss Boerwar.
Darn:
I would like to hear from Boerwar as well. I asked him before the UK election his thoughts and would like to see what he thinks now
Boerwar will be so excited to see how well Jeremy is doing!
What i dont get on the SSM thing is why the Libs dont just move to out it to a vote. It would deal with it and put it behind everybody. By the time of the next election their crazies will have moved on to some other issue and SSM will be history.
I cant think that it would actually make Turnbulls position any worse now. At least it would smoke out the nutbaggers in terms of do they have the numbers to roll him or not. If they don’t he comes out with enhanced authority, and if they do, well, he’s put out of his misery.
As it stands they are just going to bleed over this in terms of uncertainty right up to the next election.
Its not hard to predict. Its the standard argument they’d have one with a different leader.
Which sort of ignored that no Election would have been called in that circumstance unless we imagine a reality where Corbyn died of natural causes after the election was officially called, an appropriately centrist replacement was appointment and managed to either campaign on a manifesto they hated or rolled it back without losing a significant part of Corbyn’s support. Also they have an Alicorn made of diamonds because that’s about as probable as the rest of this.
Turnbull can’t put SSM to the vote. He’d be rolled straight after, he doesn’t have the numbers to be able to defy the party room on such a major issue to conservatives. And they’d get over it about as well as they got over abortion, ie they’ll still be complaining about it 40 years from now.
“Turnbull can’t put SSM to the vote. He’d be rolled straight after, he doesn’t have the numbers to be able to defy the party room on such a major issue to conservatives” (Elau)
But at least he’d go out knowing that he’d stood for something, and be remembered as having stood for something. I’m sure that thought flits thru his head from time to time, only to be followed by “Bugger it, I do like being called the Prime Minister”.
Good afternoon all,
Di Natalie and his mates have just had a meeting re senator Lee R. The very same group that referred her to the national council for action. The national council then hand balled it back to the federal MP’s for any action.
Anyway, Di Natalie and his mob could not make a decision at their meeting today. The very same group demanding action against the senator have now been unable to agree what to do. How weak is that.
Di Natale is being shown up as a very weak leader by his own actions.
He needs to either piss or get off the pot or,as they say, never draw a knife in a fight unless you are prepared to use it.
Very weak leader indeed.
Cheers.
Doyley @ #929 Monday, June 26th, 2017 – 2:18 pm
As a Green, he drew a wet lettuce!
We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal; that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
Thomas Jefferson
Well, Jefferson would never get pre-selection for the Liberals these days. What about the tax cuts, Thomas??
Surely tax cuts would be covered under ‘liberty’?
Elaugaufein @ #926 Monday, June 26th, 2017 – 1:51 pm
Turnbull could caryy the Party Room now on changing SSM Policy. However, the Conservatives would probably resign en masse to join Bernardi’s party. This might cause a ‘Confidence ” Motion in the House before the legislation could be presented.
Could be an election coming up.
A rather disturbing report about a whistleblower who complained about Ipswich Mayor Pisasale being assaulted. 30 years after Moonlight State, the need for honest cops in Qld (and Canberra) is greater than ever.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/i-was-getting-hit-with-bars-anticorruption-campaigner-jim-dodrill-assaulted-20170625-gwybm3.html
a r @ #933 Monday, June 26th, 2017 – 2:30 pm
It’s spelt “liability” these days
A.R.
It seems to me you could enjoy all those freedoms in high taxing Sweden every bit as much as in low taxing USA, or more so. Enjoying that liberty requires a civil society where it is safe to enjoy it.
The real death-knell in Jefferson’s hopes of Liberal pre-selection would be this bit:
“that all men are created equal; that they are endowed …”
The statement “all men” does not exclude refugees and illegal immigrants. We rob them of liberty all the time. So Jefferson is clearly in breach of border protection policies.
It will be interesting to see if the Coalition can make the Census great again.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-26/census-results-are-coming-out-can-we-trust-them/8594132
The results will be so great. Who needs reliability in data collection anyway?
Honest question to all.
There is nothing to prevent Labor voting in support of a confidence measure of Turnbull as PM right? By which I mean no legislative impediment.
Idea
I think it would probably come up as a motion of “no confidence” moved by a RWNJ. Labor could probably vote against such a motion without directly expressing confidence.
However I think they would vote for it which would virtually force the calling of an election by Turnbull as there would be no one with the numbers to form a government.
As Bernard Keane says, what a pack of smarmy hypocrites.
Correct, in the Westminster system and derivatives, there’s no formal requirement for any party (excepting the Speaker, who by convention votes in favour of the status quo) , even the formal opposition, to vote in any particular way.
Its pretty much unheard of for an opposition not to support formal no confidence motions* against the government though except maybe in times of war, where formal arrangements are often made to share power in order to avoid legislative gridlock.
* As opposed to technical ones, like control of the House or Budget / Spending bills where it’s not unusual for the Opposition to support them. Indeed in Australia it’s been convention since the Dismissal to separate out day to day functional spending from other budget measures, the former of which are passed in the Senate with support of Government and Opposition to avoid another Constitutional Crisis.
Thanks AJM and Elau.
ajm @ #877 Monday, June 26th, 2017 – 2:53 pm
On the one hand that seems very unlikely. On the other, a savvy Turnbull would do everything in his power to make that happen. Then if an election results, he’d be free to abandon the far-right backstabbers and run on a more moderate platform that voters would actually support (with things like marriage equality, climate change, and so on).
Considering Shorten’s personal ratings, he’d be in with a solid chance. Probably a much more solid chance than if he just continues to toe the current line into the next regular election.
The stupid thing with LNP and Turnbull is that Turnbull paid 1.8M to LNP to ‘put your money where your mouth is’…
The other fun fact is that LNP screwed Trumbull and took his money..
A new stupid law for NBN that we wouldn’t need to have if LNP didn’t gutter original NBN:
http://www.technologydecisions.com.au/content/networking/news/new-law-would-guarantee-25-mbps-broadband-1148429960#axzz4l5F6gnIP
**As a Green, he drew a wet lettuce!**
“Let’s get tough. The time for talking is over. Call it
extreme if you like, but I propose we hit it hard and hit it fast with
a major — and I mean _major_ — leaflet campaign, and while it’s
reeling from that, we’d follow up with some street theatre and
possibly even some benefit concerts. Now, if that’s not enough,
I’m sorry, it’s time for the T-shirts”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WgUktfdDy4
Jack A Randa
I think that would easily be drowned out by him condoning the continuing stalling on the environment and the throwing of as many red herrings as possible to confuse voters on it.
And also his wasting of tens of billions of dollars on the NBN.
I expect his ‘Gonski’ education ‘victory’ will turn out to be a load of merde also.
Things that will have deleterious effects for the long term future of this country he is prepared to trash in his attempts to have very short term political success.
That NBN mininum on satellite is going to require subsidizing out the wazoo.
NBN Satellite has been hopelessly oversold for about as long as it’s existed, guaranteed 25 Mbps even at peak is likely to require at least another satellite and likely more than that or transferring a significant number of current satellite footprint customers to wireless (where contention is more local and subject to targeted solutions) or to wired (which is going to cost a Mozza).
And it’s worth nothing 25 Mbps isn’t even particularly impressive it’s the top end of ADSL2+ speed which is a technology that’s literally being replaced by fibre in many countries right now.
The Oz website is currently a joy to behold:
Although it is naturally all Labor’s fault:
Citizen
Monday, June 26, 2017 at 3:46 pm
The Oz website is currently a joy to behold:
‘No change to plebiscite policy’
2:42PMROSIE LEWIS
Malcolm Turnbull is attempting to repair a damaging split within the Lib Party after Christopher Pyne recording furore.
Jig is up, the backlash begins
CHRIS KENNY
The Coalition is divided and the unfolding crisis is not so much about losing government but preserving the Liberal party.
It’s about to get really nasty …
2:07PMJOHN LYONS
The long-simmering Liberal party tensions have burst into a new round of civil war, increasing the chances of delivering government to Labor.
Although it is naturally all Labor’s fault:
Glory ahead of human rights
CAROLINE OVERINGTON
The ALP knows how important same-sex marriage is to Australians but it cares more for power and glory.
Citizen
If you were ever looking for an example of shit house thinking combined with journalism in a major national newspaper this would be high on the list.
ShowsOn has asked me to pass on the following message:
HEY MOFOS!
FARQUING MALCOLM TURNBULL!
I GOT THE NBN (HFC) CONNECTED LAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THE BLOODY THING STOPPED WORKING TODAY AT 12:30!
THE CABLE MODEM WON’T CONNECT TO THE NETWORK!
FARQUING HELL!
Called it.
Elaugaufein
But but Truffles in Oppo described the satellite Labor ordered as “an unnecessary “Rolls-Royce’ communications system” .He reckoned a “Holden” would do. Surely after that “wasteful” spending by Labor there is oodles of capacity in the ‘Rolls Royce’.
Gt,
tell Showsy that if he presses the Caps Lock button on his keyboard once (and only once) it will fix his NBN.
I promise.
Simon Katich……lol …..The Red Dwarf…..!
Greentard
Monday, June 26, 2017 at 3:54 pm
ShowsOn has asked me to pass on the following message:
HEY MOFOS!
FARQUING MALCOLM TURNBULL!
I GOT THE NBN (HFC) CONNECTED LAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THE BLOODY THING STOPPED WORKING TODAY AT 12:30!
THE CABLE MODEM WON’T CONNECT TO THE NETWORK!
FARQUING HELL!
Ask him if he has tried turning everything (pc, modem, router) off at the wall, unplug them, leave for half an hour.
Then fire everything up again.
Sometimes works.
I am on fixed wireless, but every few days I have to do a soft version of this, turning wifi off on the task bar at the top of the screen, and turning it on again.
Otherwise it works exceedingly well, with sometimes downloads twice (50 Mbps not 25) what I pay for.
Other times it is slow as a wet week, but not often, usually cured by the soft version of turning wifi off and on again.
Poroti, I am sure if it were up to the Coalition we would still be travelling between cities by coal fired steam locomotive.
In fact, Puffing Billy would be a good name for Turnbull if he wasnt the little train that couldnt.
**Ask him if he has tried turning everything (pc, modem, router) off at the wall, unplug them, leave for half an hour.**
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nn2FB1P_Mn8
From Red Dwarf to IT Crowd.
I want to sign up for the organisation Committee for the Liberationa and Intergration of Terrorfying Organisms and their Rehabilitation and Into Society….
Simon Katich Monday, June 26, 2017 at 4:07 pm
In fact, Puffing Billy would be a good name for Turnbull if he wasnt the little train that couldnt.
*******************************************
He fell in love with himself at first sight and it is a passion to which he has always remained faithful.
“If only I had a little humility, I would be perfect”.
Greg, you have to find it first.