Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Another stable two-party reading from Essential Research, as Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns confirm the impression of big swings to Labor in Queensland and Western Australia.

The Guardian reports the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has come in at 52-48 to Labor for a third week in a row, with the Coalition (39%), Labor (36%) and the Greens (10%) each managing to gain a point on the primary vote, as One Nation’s recent run of good polling form comes to an end with a two point drop to 7%. The poll also finds 78% of respondents on board for the no-brainer of real-time disclosure of political donations, 79% for politicians having to disclose meetings with companies, donors or unions, 64% for a ban on foreign donations and 61% for a $5000 cap on donations, but only 30% for a ban on donations and more public funding in its stead. Also featured are Essential’s occasional suite of questions on the personal attributes of the two leaders, on which I’ll wait on their full release later today before reaching any conclusions.

The other news in polldom this week is Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, age, gender and metro/non-metro, which are helpfully laid out in very great detail here. Statewise, the picture is overwhelmingly one of uniformity, with Labor leading 53-47 through the April-June quarter everywhere except South Australia, where it was 56-44. In swing terms, this suggests less change in New South Wales and Victoria compared with the 2016 result than the smaller states. When these numbers are plugged into the next BludgerTrack update, they will tend to boost Labor in New South Wales, where the swing presently recorded is an anomalously modest 0.7%, without making much difference elsewhere. Also of note is a two-point drop for One Nation in Western Australia in the wake of the state election, compared with stable results elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

755 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Sort of ? This seems to have to come to a head because Lee explicitly endorsed a letter drop campaign against Gonski 2.0 while negotiation was ongoing without informing the party room.

    The suspension seems technically unrelated and is about a structural conflict: what happens when a Senator is bound by their state to vote one way and by the Party Room another.

    There’s no argument being made that Lee can’t present her own / her state’s position in the party room or cross the floor in accordance with the Greens rules.

  2. VP:

    She is their reportedly their education spokesperson. Obviously Di Natale doesn’t empower his portfolio holders to represent their portfolios, or more likely has had Rhiannon in his crosshairs for yonks now without ousting her, and he finally gets an opportunity to pounce and has.

  3. @Bemused
    Yes, I’m sure the RGR years and the ongoing Abbott Turnbull war will serve an excellent example for how grown up parties behave.
    Can you at least not be a hypocritical moron when you’re being a smarmy git ?

  4. Will someone tell me what Lee has done wrong? What’s wrong with campaigning against something while you’re negotiating? One usually compliments and strengthens the other.

  5. elaugaufein @ #703 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 9:18 pm

    @Bemused
    Yes, I’m sure the RGR years and the ongoing Abbott Turnbull war will serve an excellent example for how grown up parties behave.
    Can you at least not be a hypocritical moron when you’re being a smarmy git ?

    This goes to the very heart of how a political party is organised and governs itself. Both the ALP and LNP seem to have established rules whereas our deal little Green friends seem to have rules that conflict and invite chaos.
    Enjoy the fun!

  6. @Anton
    Rhiannon endorsed a leaflet that was essentially taking a no compromise at all and a firm vote against Gonski 2.0 while negotiation was ongoing ie she was limiting the ability to negotiate. Sort of like if a union member circulated a demanded for immediate strike action while a pay deal was actually being actively discussed between parties.

  7. Confessions the issue of gastric ulcers is a little more complex than Marshall would have us believe although the role of helicobacter pylori can be central in many cases – I think you’d find a paper by J Bruce Overmier and Robert Murison quite interesting http://www.ncbi.nih.gov

  8. VP:

    Just going off what Latika reported. I actually have no idea which Greens MPs hold what portfolios because my care factor when it comes to the Greens is zero. But wouldn’t be surprised if Latika was wrong in her reporting.

  9. Hairy Nose:

    I’m likely not giving his presentation full justification because of my own lack of subject expertise. I was fascinated also with the follow up work he’s done with childhood allergies and the DNA mapping of the bacteria.

    Back in the day when I was a scientific researcher I had visions of being a ground breaker, but alas found instead I lacked the temperament for the long haul to achieve that, along with the ability to eat shit. 😀

  10. Hah, there’s a difference between moral wrongs and procedural wrongs.

    See what happens when you cross the floor on non free votes in grown up parties even if you’re morally correct. Labor will expel you, the Libs will just ensure you’re never anything more than a backbencher.

    Whether or not Rhiannon was right or wrong about Gonski, she definitely violated party policy in how she chose to oppose it.

  11. Elaugaufein
    Rhiannon endorsed a leaflet that was essentially taking a no compromise blah blah blah

    But, but, but the Greens are above petty party politics! They decry the inward-looking, navel-gazing, self absorbed behavior of the major parties. They are neither left nor right looking, but forward!

    There are a lot of formerly sanctimonious Greenie talking points that have become entirely redundant after this little episode. Just another political party indeed!

  12. I did think you had a medical background. I think you’d find the paper fascinating. The pendulum has swung from one extreme to the other – the answer is somewhere in the middle.

  13. So, what if Wollongong were to grow from 212,000 as it is now, to more like 500,000?
    That amounts to a couple of new residential areas south of the city, plus some high rise in the city itself, and maybe some medium rise to the north, near stations.

    What would you think of that?

  14. elaugaufein @ #716 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 9:32 pm

    Hah, there’s a difference between moral wrongs and procedural wrongs.
    See what happens when you cross the floor on non free votes in grown up parties even if you’re morally correct. Labor will expel you, the Libs will just ensure you’re never anything more than a backbencher.
    Whether or not Rhiannon was right or wrong about Gonski, she definitely violated party policy in how she chose to oppose it.

    So the ALP and LNP members all know where they stand, what the rules of the game are whereas the Greens haven’t a clue and confusion reigns.

  15. See what happens when you cross the floor on non free votes

    Was there a vote the Greens actually voted in, with Rhiannon crossing the floor? I don’t recall that happening at all.

  16. JD, I’m looking forward to the next time my GRN friends want to talk politics, although I wouldn’t be surprised if they back Lee.

  17. Elaugaufein –
    “Sort of like if a union member circulated a demanded for immediate strike action while a pay deal was actually being actively discussed between parties.”

    What on earth is wrong with that? All good negotiation is carrot and stick. Seems like Rhiannon was the only green not behaving like a wet noodle. The greens obviously need a bit of coaching on negotiating strategies.

  18. Obviously, Rhiannon should have put out a leaflet that said the Green’s position was only tentative and they planned to roll over as soon as the government made them an offer. Would that have made the Black Wiggle happy?

  19. Question – the members are who I feel sorriest for – I think it’s safe to bet that the vast majority of Greens members would support Labor’s position on Gonski over the LNP one.

  20. elaugaufein @ #726 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 9:45 pm

    Confessions
    https://www.google.com.au/search?q=Analogy&gws_rd=cr&ei=v5ZTWfnkD8S68QXnj4TQCw

    Right so we have Greens supporters being assholes trying to deflect from the issue at hand, that being that there is apparent utter chaos and meltdown within the party ranks. Thanks, but unless you intend on commenting from a genuine position, I’m going to ignore you on grounds you are another useless political hack.

  21. @Anton
    If you’re position is that no outcome of negotiation is worthwhile you shouldn’t be wasting your time negotiating. Its also unlikely you can negotiate in good faith while simultaneously agitating against the negotiation. Though I must say you’d make international diplomacy a lot more interesting by threatening to go to war over any treaty or agreement negotiation.

  22. elaugaufein @ #729 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 9:50 pm

    @Anton
    If you’re position is that no outcome of negotiation is worthwhile you shouldn’t be wasting your time negotiating. Its also unlikely you can negotiate in good faith while simultaneously agitating against the negotiation. Though I must say you’d make international diplomacy a lot more interesting by threatening to go to war over any treaty or agreement negotiation.

    So you give up any mention of your preferred position before going into negotiations?
    Brilliant strategy!

  23. Elaugaufein – so now you’re comparing opposing cutting education funding to warfare… are you sure you’re not a Blue-Green? Did you give the Liberals your second preference at the last election?

  24. I’ve been commenting on the internal issues concerning the NSW Greens for a while now and acknowledging there are problems there. But sure, why not. Its not like I expect better.

  25. Sky News Australia
    29 mins ·
    Sky News contributor Peta Credlin: The Liberal Party should be embracing some of the things Tony Abbott talks about. #PMLive MORE http://bit.ly/2sjUevd

    Utterly fascinating video footage. You gotta hand it to Abbott, he learned from Rudd in that he isn’t doing his whiteanting under cloak and dagger, but out there in the open. Rudd never had the balls to be so honest and genuine.

  26. I’ve been commenting on the internal issues concerning the NSW Greens for a while now and acknowledging there are problems there.

    As have I and have found myself shot down by the likes of Greens supporters like yourself.

    You clearly need to spend time with Pegasus who has been loudly championing the anti Rhiannon position for weeks now. Although I suspect with this latest media coverage Pegasus will be scarce on the site.

  27. @Bemused
    Hahahaha. Oh, man, that’s hilarious. The only parties I put below the Libs in the HoR last election where the ones even further to the right.

    And in the Senate the Libs were the last box I numbered because I didn’t care about the garbage fired after that, the ALP was significantly above that (though in hindsight I probably should have gone through to One Nation, I think I’d prefer a Lib Dem to Roberts).

  28. TONY FKIN ABBOTT

    What an absolute failure of a man. Has had everything handed to him on a plate, including Catholicism (although, that’s not a plus – bit a stupid declaration by his stupid father).

    FAILED. As a pretend Priest.

    FAILED. Fell at another hurdle when Glory in the shape of a Rhodes Scholarship trumped parenthood. Had sexual intercourse when declaring CELILBACY.

    NO INTEGRITY. Besides the fact that he didn’t father the kid he thought was his, he DID, in fact, think the child was his, and was willing to abandon said child. Says a lot about him, as a man.

    HIS WORK. He’s been run out of every job in town. NOT SUITABLE. Requires too much recreation. LOVES sexual innuendo. THINKS it makes him a run-a-mill larrikin. REALITY. Stupid is as Stupid does.

    EGOMANIAC. Thinks himself a cut above every other bloke, and of course, WOMEN.

    SHOULDABEEN. A dental paradise. There’s still hope.

    IS: A Dickhead.

    TONY ABBOTT – JUST GO AWAY; you’re a bore, a hypocrite, and STUPID.

    Has no intregity

  29. Other than politics –

    The BBC on the current ‘Ransomware’ attack:

    ‘A perfc solution’

    But for those concerned about the attack there appears to be fix, albeit one with limited effectiveness.

    By creating a read-only file – named perfc – and placing it within a computer’s “C:\Windows” folder, the attack will be stopped in its tracks.

    An explanation of how to do this has been posted by security news website Bleeping Computer and has been backed up by several other security experts.

    However, while this method is effective, it only protects the individual computer the perfc file is placed on. Researchers have so far been unable to locate a kill switch that would disable the ransomware attack entirely.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-40427907

  30. Kezza:

    On the jobs front there are definite parallels between Rudd and Abbott. Both have tried to seek employment beyond politics and failed. To be fair to Rudd at least he’s had contract work here and there even though the pickings for him are slim to nonexistent.

    Abbott doesn’t even have the balls to vocalise outside himself being a sitting MP.

  31. confessions @ #743 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 10:32 pm

    Kezza:
    On the jobs front there are definite parallels between Rudd and Abbott. Both have tried to seek employment beyond politics and failed. To be fair to Rudd at least he’s had contract work here and there even though the pickings for him are slim to nonexistent.
    Abbott doesn’t even have the balls to vocalise outside himself being a sitting MP.

    The obsession continues. Kezza said nothing about Rudd.
    Wikipedia lists details of Rudd’s post-politics career.

  32. Bemused
    Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 10:04 pm
    I see Confessions is seeing Rudd people again and letting her obsessions all hang out.
    Hilarious.

    You are such a trite, boring person, bemused
    Nobody, but nobody, can comment on Rudd, without YOU leaping to his defence.

    You’re just as boring and stupid as Abbott.

    Worse, you’re willing to trash long-standing Labor supporters, from zoomster in Victoria, to Briefly, in WA, whenever it suits. Both of whom do the hard yards for Labor.

    It’s not zoomster’s fault you couldn’t educate your own child.

    And it’s not Briefly’s fault that he’s had a success in getting a Labor candidate up, when you didn’t.

    Just grow up, you jerk.

  33. kezza2 @ #745 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 10:41 pm

    Bemused
    Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 10:04 pm
    I see Confessions is seeing Rudd people again and letting her obsessions all hang out.
    Hilarious.

    You are such a trite, boring person, bemused
    Nobody, but nobody, can comment on Rudd, without YOU leaping to his defence.
    You’re just as boring and stupid as Abbott.
    Worse, you’re willing to trash long-standing Labor supporters, from zoomster in Victoria, to Briefly, in WA, whenever it suits. Both of whom do the hard yards for Labor.
    It’s not zoomster’s fault you couldn’t educate your own child.
    And it’s not Briefly’s fault that he’s had a success in getting a Labor candidate up, when you didn’t.
    Just grow up, you jerk.

    What on earth are you on about?
    Mostly I agree with zoomster.
    My sons were educated satisfactorily.
    My local ALP candidate was elected in the Federal Election.
    etc.

  34. Bemused
    How about your re-read your own postings, regarding the education of your children. And who you blame, for their lack of education.

    You so often want to blame Joan Kirner.

    And how about you understand that education isn’t all about the 3Rs, but your own contribution at home.

    Teachers can’t fill every gap. It’s what goes at home that colours the life of kids; and how they do or don’t do handle situations.

    And, then, how many times have I read that your blame Joan Kirner, for the VCE, etc., in Victoria.? How may times have your posted this?

    What it all adds up to is you blame Joan Kirner for the failure of your kids.

  35. kezza2 @ #749 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 11:04 pm

    Bemused
    How about your re-read your own postings, regarding the education of your children. And who you blame, for their lack of education.
    You so often want to blame Joan Kirner.
    And how about you understand that education isn’t all about the 3Rs, but your own contribution at home.
    Teachers can’t fill every gap. It’s what goes at home that colours the life of kids; and how they do or don’t do handle situations.
    And, then, how many times have I read that your blame Joan Kirner, for the VCE, etc., in Victoria.? How may times have your posted this?
    What it all adds up to is you blame Joan Kirner for the failure of your kids.

    My criticisms of Ms Kirner are much broader than you seem to have appreciated and are based on personal observations of the kind of crap my kids were receiving and talks with a number of teachers I know and other parents.
    My kids survived the experience of Secondary Education.
    You just make shit up.

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