Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Another stable two-party reading from Essential Research, as Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns confirm the impression of big swings to Labor in Queensland and Western Australia.

The Guardian reports the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has come in at 52-48 to Labor for a third week in a row, with the Coalition (39%), Labor (36%) and the Greens (10%) each managing to gain a point on the primary vote, as One Nation’s recent run of good polling form comes to an end with a two point drop to 7%. The poll also finds 78% of respondents on board for the no-brainer of real-time disclosure of political donations, 79% for politicians having to disclose meetings with companies, donors or unions, 64% for a ban on foreign donations and 61% for a $5000 cap on donations, but only 30% for a ban on donations and more public funding in its stead. Also featured are Essential’s occasional suite of questions on the personal attributes of the two leaders, on which I’ll wait on their full release later today before reaching any conclusions.

The other news in polldom this week is Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, age, gender and metro/non-metro, which are helpfully laid out in very great detail here. Statewise, the picture is overwhelmingly one of uniformity, with Labor leading 53-47 through the April-June quarter everywhere except South Australia, where it was 56-44. In swing terms, this suggests less change in New South Wales and Victoria compared with the 2016 result than the smaller states. When these numbers are plugged into the next BludgerTrack update, they will tend to boost Labor in New South Wales, where the swing presently recorded is an anomalously modest 0.7%, without making much difference elsewhere. Also of note is a two-point drop for One Nation in Western Australia in the wake of the state election, compared with stable results elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

755 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. News Corp is a “rogue organisation” which is seeking to get media laws changed in Australia so it can acquire Channel Ten, a former head of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, John Menadue, said in an extraordinary interview on ABC radio.

    “The Australian government should resist any attempt to expand the media power of the news organisation which already controls 60 or 70% of the metropolitan media in Australia,” Menadue told ABC Melbourne Radio’s Jon Faine in an interview that focused on the power of Rupert Murdoch. “It is a disgraceful organisation.”

  2. cc – I replied to your ‘jb’ query (Jervis Bay) and a little comment that descent rail that far was worth investigating.

  3. I don’t think we can call the Greens a major party. Otherwise we have to call PHON one too given their voters are about at same level.

    That said the media is beating up the Green division as much as they can to try and make out the LNP is not as bad as it is.

    This might just be the end of the Greens. Time will tell. Its certainly not a good look for them.

  4. zoomster @ #646 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 7:19 pm

    They’ve basically deleted the comments on most articles and no, there are no good articles, although some are unintentionally hilarious – there’s one on ‘how to do good policy’ which keeps quoting Menzies in laughable ways (I half expected something along the lines of “As Menzies once said, the sun rises in the east…”).

    Dan Gulberry quoted a comment yesterday and it was a cracker. I should have bookmarked it.

  5. russellmahoney: “You’re to behave or well send you a mildly worded letter and then excuse you from tedious meetings.”

  6. Thanks guys. Sorry, just got in from work.

    I repeat: this seems a somewhat extreme measure for a member who simply voiced an alternative opinion. Then again, Tricky Dicky has been trying to get rid of Rhiannon since he took over the leadership and will obviously use whatever method available to do so.

  7. Good evening all,

    It would be interesting if the NSW greens decided to go it alone in response to the suspension of senator Lee R.

    The NSW branch is the financial back bone of the party. At the very least the decision to suspend their senator will not calm over the internal tensions within the party. At the most extreme it could cause a split nationally and the loss of the biggest revenue base for the party.

    Whatever results Di Natalie will on shaky leadership foundations. He does not strike me as having the kahunas to stand up and keep the lid on this whole debacle. Appears even Sarah HY realises the implications as she peddles backwards at a great rate of knots.

    I love watching this shit explode within the greens. Just another political party.


  8. I would not be surprised to see Nick McKim make a move for the leadership. He has experience at the state level. Could be a steadying influence. Senator Di Natale has not exactly set the world on fire with his leadership so far.

  9. CTar, what I was asking is would those from the Wollongong area consent to having a 45 minute train service if it meant they ended up looking more like the Gold Coast?

  10. S777

    Brandis stacks the Administrative Affairs Tribunal:

    I notice the article goes on about the removals and appointments by George …. and then winds up by saying both parties do it when in power.

  11. TonyHWindsor: Knew @leerhiannon NSW & Fed Parl -didn’t always agree with her but she at least she consistently believed in something …correct on Gonski

  12. Last night I went to a public lecture by Barry Marshall. I’ve heard him speak before, but this was way more interesting. One thing he said that made my blood boil was how big pharma refused to countenance his and Robin Warren’s proven theory that antibiotics cured stomach ulcers because they would’ve lost money as a result of the then common practice of GPs dispensing ongoing prescriptions for ‘ulcer medication’ which may have relieved symptoms, but not cured patients with the bacterial infection.

    Obviously once someone no longer has the bacterial infection they no longer need to keep going back for more ‘ulcer medication’. He also put up copies of rejection letters from journals and conferences which didn’t think their discovery worthy of reporting. Talk about a closed shop!

  13. Latika M Bourke
    8 mins ·
    Christopher Pyne: “My remarks were ill chosen and unwise, and I can see how unhelpful and damaging they have been.”

    Pyne obviously put back in his box. Seriously, what is the point of this govt?

    Labor truly is the only united party in the game at the moment.

  14. Latika M Bourke
    25 mins ·
    The Australian Greens party won’t even let the elected Senator Lee Rhiannon have a say on matters relating to her own portfolio area.

    It’s even worse if she has the education portfolio! I’m no fan of Rhiannon, but this is simply extreme. I wonder if this is yet another Di Natale ‘manoeuvre’ that is going to blow up in his face.

  15. Watch how fast the CPG moves onto the Greens and pretends nothing is happening in the LNP.

    Watch how fast Abbott moves onto getting the CPG’s attention back on the Libs if they do.

  16. Rhiannon has been censured twice before and Di Natale has largely gone out of his way to avoid public conflict with Rhiannon. There’s not much else that can be done. Its not like they could demote her to the backbench.

    Also this being a Di Natale initiated political play doesn’t fit with the facts as known unless you think someone with control over every member of the Parliamentary Greens except Rhiannon (because they all signed the complaint) needs a political play against someone on shaky ground in their own state for some bizzare reason.

  17. I imagine Rhiannon won’t have a portfolio following her expulsion from the party room and that they’ll be reassigned. Portfolios are assigned by party room votes, it makes no sense to leave her with them since she can neither guide party room debate nor speak on the party rooms behalf while expelled.

  18. Wollongong has been described as one of the world’s most beautiful industrial cities, at least in terms of its natural setting, on a narrow coastal plain hemmed in between beaches, a Lake and a 400-500 metre escarpment. It also protects Wollongong from being swallowed up by Sydney, especially with the Royal National Park to the North as an additional barrier.

  19. Tonight’s ABC Ahn Brush With Fame is a must watch, imo, Dr Fiona Wood.

    [Anh paints burns specialist & 2005 Australian of the Year Fiona Wood. The daughter of a Yorkshire miner became one of our greatest medical minds & inspires Anh with her enthusiasm & optimism. #AnhsBrushWithFame ]

  20. Ahh this is a temporary suspension while the matter is resolved that makes more sense with retaining portfolios.

    Interesting that Bandt didn’t vote in favour of the suspension, he’s probably got the least stake in this.
    The article I read doesn’t make clear if he voted against or abstained or if this was a voice vote / show of hands where you can’t tell the difference.

  21. Puffy:

    Fiona Wood is another medical researcher I’ve heard speak. She is another with a fascinating story to tell. Mother of 6, an unusual achievement for a woman her age with an accomplished medical and research career. I’m in awe.

  22. Hmmmm. I’m not sure it’s possible to make it impossible for a Senator to be bound, by their branch, to vote in a certain way while being consistent with the Greens Constitution. It would allow the Party Room to effectively overrule branches which is not okay unless some kind of arbitration procedure was decided on for disagreements.

  23. VP – The convention of representing your state must have seemed like a good idea but I wonder if it ever really ‘flew’ in the face of party politics.

  24. elaugaufein @ #697 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 9:02 pm

    Hmmmm. I’m not sure it’s possible to make it impossible for a Senator to be bound, by their branch, to vote in a certain way while being consistent with the Greens Constitution. It would allow the Party Room to effectively overrule branches which is not okay unless some kind of arbitration procedure was decided on for disagreements.

    Oh dear the poor little Greens struggling to find out how to behave like a grown up party.

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