The Guardian reports the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has come in at 52-48 to Labor for a third week in a row, with the Coalition (39%), Labor (36%) and the Greens (10%) each managing to gain a point on the primary vote, as One Nation’s recent run of good polling form comes to an end with a two point drop to 7%. The poll also finds 78% of respondents on board for the no-brainer of real-time disclosure of political donations, 79% for politicians having to disclose meetings with companies, donors or unions, 64% for a ban on foreign donations and 61% for a $5000 cap on donations, but only 30% for a ban on donations and more public funding in its stead. Also featured are Essential’s occasional suite of questions on the personal attributes of the two leaders, on which I’ll wait on their full release later today before reaching any conclusions.
The other news in polldom this week is Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, age, gender and metro/non-metro, which are helpfully laid out in very great detail here. Statewise, the picture is overwhelmingly one of uniformity, with Labor leading 53-47 through the April-June quarter everywhere except South Australia, where it was 56-44. In swing terms, this suggests less change in New South Wales and Victoria compared with the 2016 result than the smaller states. When these numbers are plugged into the next BludgerTrack update, they will tend to boost Labor in New South Wales, where the swing presently recorded is an anomalously modest 0.7%, without making much difference elsewhere. Also of note is a two-point drop for One Nation in Western Australia in the wake of the state election, compared with stable results elsewhere.
Tory/DUP agreement
I can’t find anything in the papers as to whether the planned 2018 boundary review will go ahead or not
I said in the UK live count thread soon after the exit poll was released that I didn’t think the Tories would have the votes in the House to approve the new boundaries if the seat numbers came out like the exit poll
I subsequently saw an article (which I can’t now find again ..grrr) that the DUP were opposed to the review in one of their policy documents published before the election – this is not surprising as it cuts Northern Ireland’s delegation to parliament
The other pertinent fact is that according to Martin Baxter’s website the review is now nowhere near as favourable to the Tories as before, based on the 2017 vote patterns (a number of the new Tory MP’s from Scotland could be on the chopping block for example)
In fact according to his latest analysis the Tories would actually lose more seats (20) than Labour (17) in the new 600-seat parliament – also DUP would drop 3 seats while Sinn Fein would go up by 2 seats
So Divided Nation is the only Party making an impression at the moment.
Poor Pauline! 🙂
ray (uk) @ #1 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 6:02 am
ray,
Who decides on the review?
From the tone of your comment it sounds like it’s a decision of the Government.
Kellyanne Conway Tells People Who Trump Is Kicking Off Health Insurance To Get A Job
During an appearance on Fox and Friends, Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway told all of the people who are going to lose their healthcare because of Trump to get a job.
It isn’t that the people on Medicaid don’t work. The problem is that they work at jobs that don’t offer health insurance.
The Trump mentality is to blame the person, not their policies. It is a person’s own fault that they are going to lose their insurance under Trumpcare because they should get a better job. The reality is that if these people can’t find jobs that offer healthcare, they are going to lose their insurance.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/06/26/kellyanne-conway-tells-people-trump-kicking-health-insurance-job.html
@PhoenixRED
Reminds me of Joe Hockey’s pathetic comments.
Supreme Court Partially Allows Trump’s Ban Against Travel From Six Muslim-Majority Countries And Refugees
The justices agreed to hear the federal government’s appeal of the challenges to the executive order. A quick turnaround that will allow the travel and refugee ban to be enforced against those without a connection to people or groups in the US.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidner/supreme-court-allows-trump-to-enforce-his-travel-and?utm_term=.lt9oyo8z9#.gdog6glJw
Barney
The way it works is that the independent Boundary Commission does it’s thing and publishes the proposals – but they do not take effect until approved by a vote in both Houses.
The 2013 proposals were never put to the House because Clegg and the LDs stated that they would not vote for them (after they fell out with the Tories over House of Lords reform) – the Boundary Commission then publicly stated that they had dropped them and would do no further work on them.
When the Tories won a majority in 2015 the BC got to work again and published the draft proposals in 2016 but the final proposals are still in the works.
If the DUP aren’t in favour the Boundary Commission may as well stop work on them and save some money
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/robodebt-has-harmed-thousands-say-senators-20170621-gwvgzg.html
Ray
Can the govt decide to put ‘bits’ of the BC’s report to the vote or is it an all or nothing thing?
ray (uk) @ #7 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 6:38 am
So if the Government of the day don’t like the proposal it gets binned.
What an abortion, that’s almost as bad as the US system.
Most Australians don’t realise how lucky we are to have the AEC and the State equivalents.
Morning all. As I said yesterday, SA may not decide the next election, but at 44/56 Chris Pyne should be a little worried.
Meanwhile now we know the price of power in UK. It is a lot more than 30 pieces of silver!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/theresa-may-pledges-a-billion-pounds-to-northern-ireland-to-save-her-government-20170626-gwz2x9.html
I just registered as a user on the thefairgo site. I used a phony email, as everyone else seems to have done. Some have even registered multiple accounts to flood their comments pages.
The beauty of this is that if they send out enough emails that bounce back, they might get classed as a spamming site.
Anyway, the comments on the Agony Bob page are hilarious. Example:
ROFL
CTar1
I’ve wondered about that myself before ie just put the Scottish proposals through .. or just the Welsh ones
I’d like to think that the Lords (even the Tories there) wouldn’t wear that at all even if the Commons passed them – I also wonder whether it wouldn’t lead to a legal challenge of some kind
I’ve been doing a bit of reading up earlier – apparently there was some gossip late last year (when the Tories had a majority remember) that the Lords weren’t happy with this round of reviews due to the adverse effects on the Electoral Register of the recent changes to individual registration etc.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Yet another excoriating article from Adele Ferguson on the retirement industry using Aveo as a prime example.
http://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2017/retirement-racket/bleed-them-dry
Jenna Price says that the government must step in over this issue. She certainly has a point!
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/federal-government-must-step-in-to-protect-against-predatory-retirement-villages-20170625-gwycv0.html
Aveo Group shares have plunged more than 11 per cent in the wake of an investigation detailing claims the retirement village operator is ripping off its residents through high fees and other unfair practices. Great work from Fairfax and the ABC. Again!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/aveo-shares-sink-on-allegations-of-poor-treatment-20170626-gwyi7d.html
Nicholas Reece explains why Pauline Hanson has peaked in Australia. Google.
/news/opinion/why-pauline-hanson-has-peaked-in-australia/news-story/1ce81f94ef0957195b2f7ff40f140a38
Peter Hartcher writes that a “dangerously erratic” Trump doesn’t solve crises – he creates them!
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/a-dangerously-erratic-donald-trump-doesnt-solve-crises-he-creates-them-20170626-gwypw6.html
Some problems for Clover Moore.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/clover-moore-hits-out-at-deputy-kerryn-phelps-after-shock-resignation-20170626-gwz3dh.html
The SCOTUS (partially) allows Trump’s travel ban. But appeals will continue.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-supreme-court-revives-parts-of-trump-travel-ban-from-six-muslimmajority-countries-20170626-gwz304.html
James Massola has the lowdown that two Liberal MPs have been secretly working on a plan to legalise same-sex marriage in Australia as soon as August, with a draft copy of the laws well advanced and consultation with advocates underway. It seems to be bubbling away nicely.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mps-secretly-drafting-private-members-bill-to-legalise-samesex-marriage-20170626-gwyn63.html
Phil Coorey writes about the depth of the split within the Coalition ranks over the SSM and other issues. Google.
/news/politics/gay-marriage-row-exposes-deeper-split-in-libs-20170625-gwydnw
Good Morning
NateSilver538: Per CBO, Senate bill would cut health care spending by $1.073 *trillion* over ten years. By comparison, House bill cut it by $993 billion.
Section 3 . . .
Peering at the local accounts of Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp and Goldman Sachs … is the government’s claim to have sorted multinational tax avoidance correct? As they gaze down from their eyries, partners of the Big Four accounting firms are chuckling behind closed doors. Michael West says we are nowhere near realising the taxes that should be paid by multinationals.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/goldman-sachs-news-corp-tax-lowdown-as-government-claims-battle-is-won/
The SMH editorial warns that the London fire has lessons for Sydney. It’s a worry.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/london-tower-fire-has-lessons-for-sydney-20170626-gwypc1.html
Peter FitzSimons tells us about the not so sweet deal between Big Sugar and the peak body for dieticians. Yes, the politics of food!
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-notsosweet-link-between-big-sugar-and-the-body-that-accredits-dietitians-20170626-gwykpi.html
Medicare rebates for a jab dubbed the “Porsche procedure” have soared from about $20,000 a year to $8 million in SA since 2001, streaking ahead of other states in per capita claims. It’s time for the government to get fair dinkum on rorts like this. Google.
/news/south-australia/medicare-rebates-for-ultrasound-dubbed-the-porsche-procedure-soar-from-20000-a-year-to-8-million-in-sa/news-story/70324916456b98ccab5c44fcf0d81e3a
Pharmacists are trusted medical professionals, so they shouldn’t sell remedies that lack evidence. Too right they shouldn’t!
https://theconversation.com/pharmacists-are-trusted-medical-professionals-so-they-shouldnt-sell-remedies-that-lack-evidence-65148
Given the recent UK experience Turnbull should be warned. The young are coming!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/25/malcolm-turnbull-be-warned-the-young-are-coming
Yes, Bernadi is peeling the conservatives off one by one.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cory-bernardi-strikes-again-luring-another-mp-to-his-australian-conservatives-20170624-gwxwz4.html
As the United States grapples with the implications of Kremlin interference in American politics, European countries are deploying a variety of bold tactics and tools to expose Russian attempts to sway voters and weaken European unity. Where is all this heading?
http://www.smh.com.au/world/elves-v-trolls-how-europe-is-working-to-expose-russian-meddling-20170626-gwyfea.html
Section 4 . . .
Ipswich bashing victim Jim Dodrill was responsible for “most” of the material in the corruption dossier he tabled in Parliament earlier this month. This assault has a very, very nasty and questionable look about it.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/bashing-victim-was-a-source-behind-mps-allegations-of-council-corruption-20170626-gwyxpu.html
Adam Gartrell and the war footing the Greens are on.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/three-strikes-and-shes-out-greens-risk-allout-war-over-lee-rhiannon-20170626-gwyo15.html
John Passant analyses the recent turmoil and deep divisions afflicting the Australia Greens and their significance for Australia.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/lee-rhiannon-gonski-20-and-the-battle-for-the-soul-of-the-greens,10440
Proposed cuts to Medicare-funded after-hours home visits by doctors will force more than 2700 extra people into the nation’s hospital emergency departments every night, the sector’s peak body has warned.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cuts-to-gp-home-visits-could-push-an-extra-2700-people-into-emergency-every-night-peak-body-20170625-gwy25p.html
Turkey has removed the concept of evolution from its high school curriculum, in what critics fear is the latest attempt by Erdogan’s government to erode the country’s secular character. That the initial move was even considered is a disgrace.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/too-controversial-turkey-drops-evolution-from-secular-curriculum-20170626-gwynqk.html
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has been branded a hypocrite for selling party t-shirts made in Bangladesh while portraying herself as a defender of Australian workers. Clueless hypocrite!
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/06/26/one-nation-tshirts-bangladesh/
Meanwhile Consumers and investors have been warned they could be supporting the modern equivalent of slavery without knowing it because of a gap in the law. A Senate inquiry was established in February to review whether Australia should legislate a Modern Slavery Act, similar to the one enacted in the UK in 2015.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/work/2017/06/26/modern-slavery-act/
Amid the growing political fight over power prices and energy security policy, the last major offering from the soon to be defunct Climate Institute has revealed Australian’s frustration and disappointment with what they see is bickering and stalling over climate change action and renewable energy.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/06/26/climate-attitudes-stop-fumbling-and-fighting-over-climate-poli_a_22584120/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
Anaphylaxis is on the rise in Australia, but who is held accountable if you become ill or die due to an allergic reaction caused by negligence?
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/anaphylaxis-when-food-can-kill-you,10438
Scientists have found that doses of a drug designed to treat epilepsy, also has a benefit in restoring normal brain activity in those with mild Alzheimer’s disease. Anti-epilepsy drug ‘Levetiracetam’ is being tested by researchers as a way of tackling disrupted electrical activity in the brain, which has been seen in both epilepsy and dementia. Let’s hope his has legs!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/06/26/anti-epilepsy-drug-restores-normal-brain-activity-in-alzheimers_a_23002167/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner
Cathy Wilcox takes us to the studio with Abbott and Hadley.
Ron Tandberg and the Greens’ democratic ideals.
Matt Golding with some early problems for Bernardi’s growing party.
Mark David introduces Turnbull’s new energy policy.
Trumpcare!
Matt Golding – 20 years on for Harry Potter.
Pat Clement and the relationship between Abbott and Morrison.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/e6dc5af85a4a5c3b4352e710c5333c20
Alan Moir doesn’t think tax reform isn’t going too well for Morrison.
A classic from Mark Knight has Pyne in a tough place.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/d90f883c429a2d32f0002b3371133b34?width=1024
Barney – Boundaries
I think that the abandoning of the Review in 2013 was a first, it’s never happened before
Section 2a . . .
Jacqui Maley sums it up nicely by saying that Pyne’s “treachery” is just giving the people what they want.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/pynes-samesex-marriage-treachery-consists-of-giving-people-what-they-want-20170626-gwyhky.html
In The Australian David Crowe writes that a furious row over same-sex ¬marriage has rocked the Turnbull government amid fears of a voter backlash that could unseat 20 ¬Coalition MPs at the next election, sparking anger at the “oxygen” being wasted on another internal brawl. Google.
/national-affairs/samesex-marriage-brawl-fuels-liberal-party-turmoil/news-story/bf93412f97ddb9ee60308b26f2952a78
Paul Bongiorno says that if Barnaby Joyce is the answer Pyne is the problem.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/06/26/barnaby-answer-christopher-problem/
Michelle Grattan on what Pyne’s “self indulgence” is doing to Turnbull.
https://theconversation.com/pynes-self-indulgence-damages-turnbull-because-it-reinforces-what-liberal-right-wing-malcontents-believe-80106
Section 2b . . .
Theresa May has successfully cobbled up an expensive deal to sign up the DUP to assure supply. many are not happy.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/theresa-may-pledges-a-billion-pounds-to-northern-ireland-to-save-her-government-20170626-gwz2x9.html
Scotland and Wales are mightily pissed off.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/06/26/scotland-and-wales-are-furious-about-theresa-may-giving-northern_a_23002307/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
Standby for the biggest battle yet on assisted dying.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jun/27/church-and-states-braced-for-biggest-battle-on-euthanasia
Gina is in the ranks of the worthless at Channel Ten.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/cbd/no-room-for-17000-mug-punters-as-the-billionaires-takeover-at-network-ten-20170625-gwyb26.html
The latest Essential poll shows that a majority of Australians want to see real time exposure of donations and meetings between politicians and lobbyists, unions, etc.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/27/most-voters-support-real-time-political-donations-reporting-guardian-essential-poll
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/samesex-marriage-brawl-fuels-liberal-party-turmoil/news-story/bf93412f97ddb9ee60308b26f2952a78
No Paywall for this article. Murdoch not happy Jan.
Ray – Tks.
The idea that they couldn’t pick and choose from the results sounds right.
But your suggestion that they may be able to advance a whole component that represents a ‘chunk, say Scotland, sounds like a ‘who knows’ but not out there if your argument was coherent.
Interesting.
‘Yet another excoriating article from Adele Ferguson on the retirement industry using Aveo as a prime example.’
Adele Ferguson is a very impressive journalist and her report on 4 Corners was top notch.
Everywhere you look it’s the same story – lack of adequate regulation or oversight allows exploitative companies to profiteer at the expense of the vulnerable. In this case, very vulnerable.
No doubt it’s all Labor’s fault.
Maybe they should all be stocked in a separate section of the shop with large prominent signage;
🙂
dan gulberry @ #12 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 7:09 am
How does that work? Gmail can keep track of spammers by people who list them as spam, and (apparent) spam has reduced greatly over the years on my gmail account.
But does Google also keep track of bounced emails from other providers, such as those used by spammers? Does anybody know how that works, if it does?
Turnbull is going for the hard hitting interviews now
thepmo: The Prime Minister will be on air shortly on @TripleMMelb
Ken Wyatt just said on News 24 he would support a conscience vote
ray (uk) @ #19 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 7:16 am
But the potential is always there.
We are lucky in Australia, we seem to have most of the best bits of Westminster and have managed to improve its weaknesses.
Thanks for all the info ray. 🙂
Read the self serving drivel that Aveo posted in response to the Fairfax/Four Corners investigation.
Note that this drivel was lodged with the ASX on Monday morning, hours before the 4 Corners show was aired. Despite this desperate attempt to cover their arses, the share price still fell by 11%. It will be interesting to see what happens to their shares today now that the whole story is out there.
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/clients/aveo/headline.aspx?headlineid=21020460
rharris334: .@TurnbullMalcolm on Andrew Bolt’s criticism: “it’s knocking me around, let me tell you.”
Phoenix Red @6:30AM: “The Trump mentality is to blame the person, not their policies.”
That’s what the Liberals do. It’s standard Conservative operating procedure.
rharris334: Mick Molloy to the PM: am I in any danger of getting my NBN?
rharris334: PM says: “it’s hurdling along at an incredible pace. It’s a giant project. I inherited a mess.”
BK
That should include most of the cosmetic lines, then.
I heard the Aveo spokesman interviewed on Radio National this morning. His answer to every question seemed to be a variation on “Australia’s retirement villages provide homes and communities for over 184,000 Australians.”
AVEO
The most disgusting thing was the list of investments by the millionaire ‘directors’.
guytaur @ #22 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 7:20 am
DG
Really. Wow. My apologies to all. I don’t know why it displayed the full article for me when I clicked on it on website.
don @ #26 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 7:29 am
It works at the web hosting end of the equation. The hosting company can see massive amounts of emails getting sent, and the number of them that get bounced back. All the hosting companies that I’m aware of have strict anti-spamming rules. It is not unheard of for hosting companies to shut down sites that violate these rules.
Aveo directors should be forced to personally compensate their victims, in addition to payouts from the company itself.
Put them out of business and bankrupt the directors.
guytaur,
It’s cool. Everyone knows how to get around it anyway.
Thanks for the tip, Dan.
I don’t know who designed the site, but they obviously knew very little (I was going to expand but a full stop will do). For example, there’s that cunning little message in faint text saying that by signing up you’ve agreed to let them contact you, but no checking of the validity of the email address.
Finally, I agree with Cory:
“Christopher Pyne is the most untrustworthy person I have ever met in this business.”
The most important question, has AVEO blamed Labor yet?
dan gulberry @ #40 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 8:13 am
Thanks Dan.
I thought that maybe the spammers were in collusion with their hosting companies.
zoomster @ #43 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 8:20 am
I understand that you can get email addresses that check out as valid, but disappear after an hour or a day or whatever.
If the Libs want to know why they have tanked in South Australia maybe they should ponder the way Turnbull & Co has spent so much time bagging South Australia and its renewables sector.
Is there a standard contract in the nursing home industry? Is there an industry code of conduct? It sounds ripe for regulation.
Its not all going Trumps way in the Supreme Court as it declines 2 2nd Amendment cases
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/26/politics/supreme-court-guns-case/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Politics%29