Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Another stable two-party reading from Essential Research, as Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns confirm the impression of big swings to Labor in Queensland and Western Australia.

The Guardian reports the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has come in at 52-48 to Labor for a third week in a row, with the Coalition (39%), Labor (36%) and the Greens (10%) each managing to gain a point on the primary vote, as One Nation’s recent run of good polling form comes to an end with a two point drop to 7%. The poll also finds 78% of respondents on board for the no-brainer of real-time disclosure of political donations, 79% for politicians having to disclose meetings with companies, donors or unions, 64% for a ban on foreign donations and 61% for a $5000 cap on donations, but only 30% for a ban on donations and more public funding in its stead. Also featured are Essential’s occasional suite of questions on the personal attributes of the two leaders, on which I’ll wait on their full release later today before reaching any conclusions.

The other news in polldom this week is Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, age, gender and metro/non-metro, which are helpfully laid out in very great detail here. Statewise, the picture is overwhelmingly one of uniformity, with Labor leading 53-47 through the April-June quarter everywhere except South Australia, where it was 56-44. In swing terms, this suggests less change in New South Wales and Victoria compared with the 2016 result than the smaller states. When these numbers are plugged into the next BludgerTrack update, they will tend to boost Labor in New South Wales, where the swing presently recorded is an anomalously modest 0.7%, without making much difference elsewhere. Also of note is a two-point drop for One Nation in Western Australia in the wake of the state election, compared with stable results elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

755 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden · 13h13 hours ago

    To paint the plebiscite as some sort of holy law within Liberals is a joke. It’s just $200 million plan to stop something that’s inevitable

  2. Not really a big follower of Greens politics but the article by John Passant was illuminating. If Rhiannon thought Gonski 2.0 was retrograde step, then she was right not to vote for it.
    Also agree with his thoughts on the drift to the centre. Wishy washy poltics.
    The voters will have more respect for a politician with values, than one who only has a strategy.
    Many reckon that “the centre” is the place to be strategically in politics. But “the centre” of the political class is not the same as “the centre” of the voting public. It is skewed to the right by big donors and other vested interests.

  3. phoenixred @ #4 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 6:30 am

    Kellyanne Conway Tells People Who Trump Is Kicking Off Health Insurance To Get A Job
    During an appearance on Fox and Friends, Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway told all of the people who are going to lose their healthcare because of Trump to get a job.
    It isn’t that the people on Medicaid don’t work. The problem is that they work at jobs that don’t offer health insurance.
    The Trump mentality is to blame the person, not their policies. It is a person’s own fault that they are going to lose their insurance under Trumpcare because they should get a better job. The reality is that if these people can’t find jobs that offer healthcare, they are going to lose their insurance.

    The Trump mentality of “blame the person, not the policy” is a commonly held view of a substantial number of Americans. The American culture has an element of extreme individualism.

  4. Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 1m1 minute ago

    If you’d like to do a mood check on the prime minister this morning, tune in to Neil Mitchell now #auspol

  5. Hmmm… they seem to have deleted most of the comments from some of their threads. So much for free speech and fair goes.

  6. zoomster @ #43 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 8:20 am

    Thanks for the tip, Dan.
    I don’t know who designed the site, but they obviously knew very little (I was going to expand but a full stop will do). For example, there’s that cunning little message in faint text saying that by signing up you’ve agreed to let them contact you, but no checking of the validity of the email address.

    Anyone who knows anything about e-commerce knows to use a third party email management system such as Aweber. One of the T&C for them is that all email addresses have to be what’s known as “Opt-in”.

    I’m sure you’re familiar with the concept. You sign up at a site. The site sends an email to the address you used to register. In that email is a conformation link. Prospective members have to clink that link to conform that it’s a valid email address. If the link isn’t clicked, no account is created.

    The email managers can see how many emails get sent out seeking confirmation, and how many actually click the links. By their T&C emails cannot be sent to addresses that have not confirmed their status.

    As Don points out though, there are a number of services that allow you to create temporary address that evaporate after a set amount of time. Plus you can always set up a yahoo or gmail address that you can delete after confirming. Alternatively, you can just never log into that account again.

    All of this proves once again that the LNP just don’t understand this interwebby thing.

  7. MarkDiStef: Turnbull sneers at those writing about “Labor lite”: “These are headlines written by clickbait journalists”

  8. srpeatling: PM: “Tony Abbott is not a minister, he’s not in the cabinet, he’s one member in the party room.”

    Sounds like its going swimmingly for Turnbull 😆

  9. michaelkoziol: Turnbull has finally done it. He has used “fake news” (to describe the polls, which are actually expensive, scientific instruments) #auspol

  10. Guytaur

    Yep Abbott was PM until Turnbull and his merry supporters turfed him from that position. No biggie. Was only a biggie when Gillard did it. Lol!

  11. I keep one main email account for business / family which is pretty spam-free, another for subscriptions, bookings and so forth which gets a bit of spam but not too bad. I have a few others like Gmail, iCloud and Yahoo that I was given without asking for them. I might give one of these to groups / companies I don’t want to hear from (e.g. when I comment on an overseas puplication).

  12. Meanwhile Trump has gone from Russia did not hack election to why didn’t Obama stop it. All his fault, and North Korea needs to be dealt with asap.
    We know where this is all headed…………

  13. Ctar1
    Some problems for Clover Moore
    Where ever Phelps goes, this sort of stuff also seems to go.

    Phelps has/had one goal – the Chain of Office. I don’t think she expected that the deputy mayorship wold be ‘rotated’, that her assumed ascent would be in question, and imho, Moore is well rid of her.

  14. Catching up on last night’s posts, I was tickled pink to find Harry Nilsson appear. The Point is pure gold for me; I stay play the vinyl.

    Here’s one for C@tmomma and Ctar1, and whoevs. I love the graphics, but can’t find the whole film, which is a joy, esp the three fat sisters 😉

  15. kemal_atlay: – 1 in 6 aged 65+, from 1 in 7 in 2011
    – ‘No religion’ jumps to 30%, up from 22%
    – 47k same-sex couples, up from 33k…

  16. When even Katharine mocks Malcolm, you sense he is in trouble.
    Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo 32m32 minutes ago
    The PM is asked about how you cut through. “You tell the truth and you deliver.” (“The government is united”) #auspol

  17. No religion should give Politicians pause for thought. It won’t for the LNP but those that think religion means they can get away with bigotry will have to adjust.

  18. Census population includes a big revision upwards to Victoria and it will go from 37 seats up to 38 seats. Also confirms that SA will drop from 11 seats to 10 seats.

  19. guytaur @ #73 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 9:23 am

    No religion should give Politicians pause for thought. It won’t for the LNP but those that think religion means they can get away with bigotry will have to adjust.

    The gentle folk of our great nation who believe in fairies and such like are not confined to religious believers.
    Witness many of the members of our current federal government.
    Emoticon of me bowing to my betters protecting our way of life – 🙇

    And for you Lizzie – my wrinkle cream is working a treat.

  20. Australians have not been particularly religious in the past 50 years or so, as far as I can tell. Most have been nominally attached to one or other denomination, normally determined by birth, sometimes by marriage, but religious beliefs hasn’t seemed to particularly inform their lives. Now more are admitting to ‘no religion’. In fact, the most religious people these days seem to be recent migrants.

  21. With 2/3rds of Australians living in capital cities as banner on News 24 says that means 2/3rds of govt expenditure should be in capital cities.

    Spend where the people are

  22. Perhaps Potatohead will send around the language police to homes of more than a quarter of Australia’s population who do not speak English at home. Doubtless he will target the Arabic speakers first.

    Languages spoken at home (top 4) % (first figure 2016, second figure 2011)
    English – 17,020,417 (72.7%)
    English – 16,509,291 (76.8%)
    Mandarin – 596,711 (2.5%)
    Mandarin – 336,410 (1.6%)
    Arabic – 321,728 (1.4%)
    Italian – 299,833 (1.4%)
    Cantonese – 280,943 (1.2%)
    Arabic – 287,174 (1.3%)

  23. Shoppers have been evacuated from a Woolworths supermarket in Ashwood.

    A police spokeswoman said police were conducting safety checks at the corner of Warrigal Road and High Street Road in Ashwood.

    “Emergency services were called at about 8.30am, a supermarket has been evacuated as a precaution with the arson and bomb squad attending,” she said.

  24. Paul Murray’s rant on Christopher Pyne was absolutely magnificent (and utterly hilarious). Think Shaun Micallef will bring back the leadership spill clock?

  25. dan gulberry @ #30 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 7:47 am

    Read the self serving drivel that Aveo posted in response to the Fairfax/Four Corners investigation.
    Note that this drivel was lodged with the ASX on Monday morning, hours before the 4 Corners show was aired. Despite this desperate attempt to cover their arses, the share price still fell by 11%. It will be interesting to see what happens to their shares today now that the whole story is out there.

    Ta for that Dan.
    It appears the company is on a war footing as it has announced a buy back of shares to 10% of issued stock. This must be to keep the spivs value up so that they do not terminate any high end managers / affect the total wealth
    IT appears Perpetual Investments dumped its holdings up to month before the article. Did they know something the ordinary punter did not

  26. Gt

    re’ The Australian article –

    Liberal defector Cory Bernardi launched a scathing attack on his former colleague, labelling Mr Pyne the “most untrustworthy person” he’d ever met in politics. The leader of the newly formed Australian Conservatives party told Bolt’s Sky News program: “Character is everything in politics and I’ve known Pyne longer than anyone in that parliament and he is not a person of good character. He is the most ­untrustworthy person I’ve ever met in this business.”

    No love lost between SA ‘conservatives’!

  27. CT

    Yeah. However I agree with Bernadi as Pyne was involved with the murky business regarding Slipper in the Gillard era.

  28. lizzie @ #79 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 9:45 am

    And how are you this foine marnin?

    My, modom, you speak veddy vell.
    I am pleased that your computer is working again.
    As you noted – we are quite dependent on our computers.
    I had a birthday a couple of days ago and was very pleased to have Arthur Percy (aged 20 months – great grandson) visit me together with other family members.
    I have some little toy devices. These are the very popular spinning devices which rotate on ball bearing hubs.
    AP (Arthur Percy) was quite delighted with these devices and gave each to me to set them going again as they slowed and stopped.
    Then AP discovered that he could work them himself.
    At the age of 78, once again, I was made redundant.
    Never mind, AP’s grandfather was then able to tell me of unconfirmed reports of people living in communities on the far side of the moon.
    How this last squares with other reports of some citizens – that nobody has ever been to the moon, I wot not.
    I like that “wot not what” kind of talk. I have recently finished a biography of William Shakespeare.
    Au revoir fair lady.

  29. “Character is everything in politics and I’ve known Pyne longer than anyone in that parliament and he is not a person of good character. He is the most ­untrustworthy person I’ve ever met in this business.”

    And of course Bernardi spoke up when Pyne and Ashby got together while the Libs were conspiring to attack Slipper???

  30. Bongiorno on M.E. debate

    PaulBongiorno: @JoshButler So sad. Capitulation to a party room “branch stack” The moderates are ‘t winning. Thumped again.

  31. Things are going swimmingly in LiberalLand:

    Turnbull holds firm on plebiscite
    PM won’t let a private member’s bill to legalise gay marriage be debated in parliament if a plebiscite isn’t held first.

  32. citizen @ #92 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 10:22 am

    Things are going swimmingly in LiberalLand:
    Turnbull holds firm on plebiscite
    PM won’t let a private member’s bill to legalise gay marriage be debated in parliament if a plebiscite isn’t held first.

    Can he do that if a member of the opposition proposes a bill?

  33. So Plan A is:
    1. Stage a non-binding plebiscite for about $200 million.
    2. Have a vote in Parliament on same sex marriage.
    Plan B is:
    1. Use the $200 million for something else, or save to it reduce the deficit
    2. Have a vote in Parliament on same sex marriage.
    So who is it says the Coalition are the better financial managers? Spend $200 million to address internal Liberal party divisions?

  34. I thought the Libs were hopelessly divided ..chaotic even!!

    ..seems I am wRONg!!

    Charles Croucher
    “”The partyroom is very harmonious it’s very united”
    – Malcolm Turnbull”

  35. Census shock: Melbourne set to overtake Sydney as Australia’s biggest city

    But we already knew that. Why treat it as a shock?

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