Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Another stable two-party reading from Essential Research, as Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns confirm the impression of big swings to Labor in Queensland and Western Australia.

The Guardian reports the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has come in at 52-48 to Labor for a third week in a row, with the Coalition (39%), Labor (36%) and the Greens (10%) each managing to gain a point on the primary vote, as One Nation’s recent run of good polling form comes to an end with a two point drop to 7%. The poll also finds 78% of respondents on board for the no-brainer of real-time disclosure of political donations, 79% for politicians having to disclose meetings with companies, donors or unions, 64% for a ban on foreign donations and 61% for a $5000 cap on donations, but only 30% for a ban on donations and more public funding in its stead. Also featured are Essential’s occasional suite of questions on the personal attributes of the two leaders, on which I’ll wait on their full release later today before reaching any conclusions.

The other news in polldom this week is Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, age, gender and metro/non-metro, which are helpfully laid out in very great detail here. Statewise, the picture is overwhelmingly one of uniformity, with Labor leading 53-47 through the April-June quarter everywhere except South Australia, where it was 56-44. In swing terms, this suggests less change in New South Wales and Victoria compared with the 2016 result than the smaller states. When these numbers are plugged into the next BludgerTrack update, they will tend to boost Labor in New South Wales, where the swing presently recorded is an anomalously modest 0.7%, without making much difference elsewhere. Also of note is a two-point drop for One Nation in Western Australia in the wake of the state election, compared with stable results elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

755 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. “”The partyroom is very harmonious it’s very united”
    – Malcolm Turnbull”

    So when is someone going to do the Python “Black Knight” scene with Malcolm?
    “I’m Invincible!!”
    “Your a looney”

  2. Guytaur – according to the AFR, Marn Ferguson has not been invited to the dinner to mark the 90th anniversary of the ACTU , despite being a former president!

  3. On the other hand, the plebiscite has already saved its purpose, kick same sex marriage into the long grass. Either:
    – Labor wins the next election and SSM is legalised in 2019,
    – Coalition wins, a Plebiscite is held in 2020, passes and SSM is legalised in 2020/21 on the Conservatives’ terms unless they ignore the result
    – The Conservative’s dream result, the Coalition wins, a Plebiscite is held, a confusing or unacceptable question plus a massive scare / hate / disinformation campaign by the Churches results on its defeat and the question is put off for a decade or more.
    Whatever way, SSM will have been postoned by at least 4 years.

  4. Rob_Stott: If Australia’s 47,000 same-sex couples got married at an average cost of $36,200 per wedding, it would inject $1.7billion into the economy

  5. Anton,

    Sally McManus is the future for the labour movement in this country. She and Ged Kearney will be a tremendous team as the ACTU and the general union movement reinvent themselves and drop Martin Ferguson and his ilk into the rubbish bin.

    Cheers.

  6. If Melbourne is about to become Australia’s largest city, why does Melbourne get a third the infrastructure funding of Sydney?

    Probably need to look at the populations of Melbourne region versus Newcastle, Sydney and Wollongong urban areas

  7. Good question. Anyone heard from them today?

    Mike Carlton‏ @MikeCarlton01 · 14h14 hours ago

    And where are the federal and state Ministers for Aged Care, I hear you cry. Answer: AWOL, cowering in the bunker. #4Corners

  8. Re SSM the problem for the ‘moderates’ in the Liberal party is that they will be campaigning at the next election with another plebiscite to be held in the next term.
    They see that as untenable, hence the move for a vote.

    Of course I am describing them as moderates advisedly, they would still be happy to remove penalty rates and add a Medicare co-payment.

  9. If Melbourne is about to become Australia’s largest city, why does Melbourne get a third the infrastructure funding of Sydney?

    Probably need to look at the populations of Melbourne region versus Newcastle, Sydney and Wollongong urban areas

    My thoughts too. All of this depends on definitions and where the ABS draws the boundaries.

  10. I think that ‘moderate’ in the context of the Liberal party mostly relates to the social dimension. Socially, “Liberals” range from small ‘l’ liberal to deeply conservative, with the conservatives having the whip hand. Economically, they are all well to the right, many a long way so. The only objection that any would have to the 2014 Budget, Robo debt or anything that the IPA might say is loss of votes.

  11. Lenore Taylor‏Verified account @lenoretaylor · 1m1 minute ago

    It’s the Coalition’s break-a-glass emergency plan: if all else fails, kill Bill | Peter Lewis

  12. Turnbull’s real-life appeal is transactional, a successful person who we would ask for advice, or dine or travel with – after all he knows where the good spots are.

    Bill’s appeal is more relational – going for a beer, helping you if your car broke down or if you needed a spare pair of hands with the renovations. Despite the wealth disparity, he’s also more likely to lend you $100 if you need it. You’d even trust him with your pet.

    Yes, it’s a little trite, but there is a deeper truth here that goes to the Coalition’s struggles to define their opponent.

    Despite his sometimes awkward presentation, the opposition leader has managed to build a perception of someone who does more than just talk, someone who is prepared to pitch in and get his hands dirty when it’s needed.

    Or maybe it’s just that when forced to contrast him with a prime minister who promised so much but has delivered so little, a more grounded leader doesn’t seem so bad at all.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/27/its-the-coalitions-break-a-glass-emergency-plan-if-all-else-fails-kill-bill?CMP=share_btn_tw

  13. Billie

    If Melbourne is about to become Australia’s largest city, why does Melbourne get a third the infrastructure funding of Sydney?

    Because the federal Coalition hate Daniel Andrews /full stop/

  14. Federal Infrastructure funding

    Victoria is not a great state for the Federal Libs. Less seats for them to win compared to NSW. Especially in relation to Sydney v Melbourne. Plus NSW has a state Lib govt compared to Vic’s Labor.

  15. Alice Workman‏Verified account @workmanalice · 8m8 minutes ago

    PM’s office cut off the Facebook Live feed of his press conference just as questions start to heat up.

  16. I wonder what the Q was.

    ‘Crazy’ Labor Person‏ @SophiaMcGrane · 13m13 minutes ago

    wow! Malcolm just chucked a cranky shouty tanty at a journo at a presser in Melbourne then tried to laugh and fake smile his way out of it

  17. billie @ #106 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 11:11 am

    If Melbourne is about to become Australia’s largest city, why does Melbourne get a third the infrastructure funding of Sydney?
    Probably need to look at the populations of Melbourne region versus Newcastle, Sydney and Wollongong urban areas

    Melbourne has such an infrastructure deficit that I keep discovering things that amaze me. The latest yesterday, the Altona line is single track and can only run 3 trains per hour! Ludicrous. Indefensible. Archaic.

  18. Lizzie

    I wonder what the Q was.

    It was on 24 but I couldn’t hear the question. He went on about ‘fake news’.

    Earlier he was on with a Melb shock jock and when asked about Lib disunity he went on with a low voltage rant saying to the shock jock that he was a ‘deliverer’ not a commentator …

    It’s a ‘not happy’ Turnbull out in Melb today.

  19. ctar1 @ #132 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 12:40 pm

    Lizzie

    I wonder what the Q was.

    It was on 24 but I couldn’t hear the question. He went on about ‘fake news’.
    Earlier he was on with a Melb shock jock and when asked about Lib disunity he went on with a low voltage rant saying to the shock jock that he was a ‘deliverer’ not a commentator …
    It’s a ‘not happy’ Turnbull out in Melb today.

    Next he’ll be a fixer!

  20. ‘Federal Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt has said he was “disappointed” to see the “exploitation” of some residents of retirement villages on last night’s Four Corners.
    “And it irritated me actually, to be quite truthful.”‘

    Sigh…disappointed and irritated doesn’t even come close.

    What a piss-weak response.

  21. ctar1 @ #133 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 12:42 pm

    Bemused

    Well it shocks me.

    They’ve been predicting it for years ???

    I know, but I just don’t see it. What are the boundaries they use?
    The sprawl of both is a serious and as yet largely unrecognised problem as all the good farming land close to the city is consumed by housing.

  22. If Bronwyn was still Aged Care Minister, she’d be rounding up these whingers and dunking them in kerosene baths.

    The only comment I’ve seen from the current Aged Care Minister, Ken Wyatt, is ‘I watched the show, and was outraged that they could charge $10 for opening a door after key left inside’.

  23. CTar1

    Turnbull shouldn’t need to keep telling us what he is and does. It should be obvious.
    I mean, I could shout over and over that I am a tall, handsome young man, but …

  24. adrian @ #135 Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 12:43 pm

    ‘Federal Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt has said he was “disappointed” to see the “exploitation” of some residents of retirement villages on last night’s Four Corners.
    “And it irritated me actually, to be quite truthful.”‘
    Sigh…disappointed and irritated doesn’t even come close.
    What a piss-weak response.

    It just beggars belief that government departments are unaware and have not informed their minister.
    Equally, I would have thought lots of local members would have received complaints and raised it with the minister.

  25. On a more serious note, it is clear that many who buy units in these retirement villages think it is freehold, and like any other real estate investment where they get free posession to enjoy, capital gains and ability to leave in estate at (near) full value.

    Instead, they buy into a ponzi-like scheme which is based on churning the mugs for less than they put in, then add a coat of paint and some glossy ads to lure the next mugs. Rinse and repeat.

  26. **It’s a ‘not happy’ Turnbull out in Melb today.**
    Must be what I said about him yesterday on PB. I am told I get under peoples skin like that.

    Unrelated – I see NZ are both the worlds best at rugby and have won the America’s Cup sailing. One shows that hard work, strong spirit and a thick grassroots involvement can lift a small country to be the best. The other? A sad symptom of high inequality in a place where 10% own 60% of the wealth?

  27. Melbourne from about the 1880s onwards was the bigger city. The Gold Rush helped to boost the city. However after WW1 and WW2 the growth in Sydney meant it had regained the lead as the biggest city. Immigration was higher towards Sydney than Melbourne.

    Currently Melbourne is growing faster than Sydney and predictions over the last couple of years have said it will become the larger city. The problem is that both cities are approaching the 5 mil plus barrier in which generally standards of living appear to fall. There is very few cities in the top lists for livability that are above 4 or 5 mil residents.

    Both cities also suffer from a lack of infrastructure from basics like water and sewer to telco, major transport and schools/hospitals

  28. Shitfer is at it again.
    Tony’s manifesto to get out and stay out of government.

    In a major speech that can be read as an alternative political manifesto, the former prime minister outlined three energy policy measures – freezing the renewable energy target at 15 per cent, a moratorium on new wind farms, and for the federal government to potentially go it alone and build a new coal-fired power station – to put downward pressure on power prices.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-lays-out-alternative-policy-program-to-help-the-coalition-hang-on-to-government-20170627-gwz83z.html

  29. President Donald Trump continued to criticize former President Barack Obama on Monday for his response to alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election — blasting his predecessor in a series of tweets, then demanding an “apology.”

    “The reason that President Obama did NOTHING about Russia after being notified by the CIA of meddling is that he expected Clinton would win … and did not want to ‘rock the boat.’ He didn’t ‘choke,’ he colluded or obstructed, and it did the Dems and Crooked Hillary no good,” Trump wrote.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/26/politics/trump-tweet-obama-russia-collusion-obstruction/index.html

    I certainly hope Mueller decides to adopt Trump’s definition of collusion and obstruction. Trump received the same CIA briefings as Obama and Hillary, knew just as much as they did. And instead of merely doing nothing, he denounced the entire thing as a hoax and publicly called on Putin/Russia to keep hacking. And then went on to intimidate and/or dismiss people trying to investigate the matter.

    Judged by his own standard that makes him guilty of collusion and obstruction some ten times over, at least.

  30. There was an announcement earlier on ABC local radio news of Dan Andrews at the construction of a large hydroponic farm at Stawell to be powered entirely by wind power and storage. Good news for sustainable jobs in regional Victoria.
    And, Bill Shorten just on slamming the retirement industry for ripping off vulnerable older people.
    No wonder Turnbull is grumpy.

  31. Trog:

    Not that I agree, but I can see how two of those policies may be argued can lower prices.

    I dont understand how no new wind farms (even without subsidies) can.

  32. “If Melbourne is about to become Australia’s largest city, why does Melbourne get a third the infrastructure funding of Sydney?”
    You ask the wrong question. Ask, does Melbourne have one third of the marginal seats in Federal parliament, then you will understand why Sydney gets the money.

    Here in Adelaide Jamie Brigg’s seat was hardly the most needy in Adelaide, but it sure got a lot of Federal largesse while Jamie looked like losing. Need has nothing to do with it.

  33. Over 2 decades ago I was talking to some friends of my parents about retirement villages because mum wanted to move into one. Even then retirement villages had a reputation for throwing residents out of their homes.
    A complaint I made about the cost of getting out of retirement villages was published in Eureka Report a decade ago
    Until last weekend I was unfamiliar with the resident ‘churn’ and residential village initiated medical assessments to move patients on, but I was aware that residential villages are marketed to investors as homes for the active elderly.

    As baby boomers start to use these facilities en-masse I hope that adequate regulations are implemented. We already have regulations about nurse-patient rations in acute hospital wards, staff-child ratios for pre-school care – its time to regulate aged care and inspect the system properly

  34. Ides of March
    Building a coal fired power station won’t lower prices – unless the costs of building it are quarantined from the retail price. Such a power station is expensive and would take years to build.

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