The Guardian reports the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has come in at 52-48 to Labor for a third week in a row, with the Coalition (39%), Labor (36%) and the Greens (10%) each managing to gain a point on the primary vote, as One Nation’s recent run of good polling form comes to an end with a two point drop to 7%. The poll also finds 78% of respondents on board for the no-brainer of real-time disclosure of political donations, 79% for politicians having to disclose meetings with companies, donors or unions, 64% for a ban on foreign donations and 61% for a $5000 cap on donations, but only 30% for a ban on donations and more public funding in its stead. Also featured are Essential’s occasional suite of questions on the personal attributes of the two leaders, on which I’ll wait on their full release later today before reaching any conclusions.
The other news in polldom this week is Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, age, gender and metro/non-metro, which are helpfully laid out in very great detail here. Statewise, the picture is overwhelmingly one of uniformity, with Labor leading 53-47 through the April-June quarter everywhere except South Australia, where it was 56-44. In swing terms, this suggests less change in New South Wales and Victoria compared with the 2016 result than the smaller states. When these numbers are plugged into the next BludgerTrack update, they will tend to boost Labor in New South Wales, where the swing presently recorded is an anomalously modest 0.7%, without making much difference elsewhere. Also of note is a two-point drop for One Nation in Western Australia in the wake of the state election, compared with stable results elsewhere.
Gawd it would be a noice sight to see Bishop Jnr snarling from the Back Bench
Something we probably won’t see. She turns 62 in the likely election year 2019. If the Coalition loses she’ll be off to a nice pre-arranged sinecure.
Abraham Lincoln said it best;
“Has it not got down as thin as the homeopathic soup that was made by boiling the shadow of a pigeon that had starved to death?”
Thanks C@t
@ C@tmomma
I heard the reports that Porter was seeking another seat, then saw later reports that his efforts had been rebuffed.
There are 5 L/NP seats in WA that are winnable for Labor based upon current polling, and six more which are out of reach barring a catastrophe. The other 5 seats are Labor held, 4 of them are safe.
Of the 6 super safe WA seats, 3 are regional and one is Mesma’s seat and she has indicated she’s not going anywhere, leaving Porter with 2 choices.
Moore is held by Ian Goodenough, and Tangney is held by Ben Morton, neither of whom I’ve heard of. By virtue of holding super safe seats I assume they are well connected in the Liberal party and won’t be inclined to willingly step aside for Porter.
Dio – Was the casting vote cast to preserve the status quo or a deliberate vote on the merits of the bill?
@ Greensborough Growler
Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 5:03 pm
Papalia’s booting made the front page of the West today. Nobody will be losing any sleep over that, nor will they be overly concerned that back office public servants (as opposed to frontline staff) are being made redundant.
I live in Pearce and am a regular correspondent with Porter over the NBN, and the level of attention to my correspondence has noticeably increased since the WA election. Parts of his electorate have also been shifted from HFC to FTTP.
C@ /Grimace
Effectively he already has a history of doing that.
He bailed from WA state politics because he could see the Libs crashing and burning under Uncle Collin so he went for the federal seat.
Diogenes and Simon Katich
While Atkinson is a social conservative and, were he voting on the floor with the others, he’d probably still vote against, in this case he is a parliamentary traditionalist and based his negative casting vote on Denison’s Rule.
Sharri Markson on The Drum just said that Alan Jones and Ray Hadley are “the mainstream”.
Well, she would, wouldn’t she!
‘But, none of that will stop people from voting for him.’
Well fortunately they’re not voting for him – they’ll be voting for this shambles of the government, and as the polls consistently show, people are not inclined to do that.
“the mainstream”
Did Sharri mean to say ‘midstream’?
SK
Menzies guiding principle was always when in government do as little as possible to interfere with the economy and administration generally of the country. He was there to do things that were politically advantageous to him/the Libs.
The Libs love of having witch hunts via RC’s follows his example of having the RC into Espionage ( http://www.naa.gov.au/collection/fact-sheets/fs130.aspx ) as a weapon against Labor and in particular Doc Evatt.
Sewer main, main stream.
Close enough.
It would seem the CPG has faced reality and moved. The seem to have all moved together; within 24 hours; strength of the herd mentality is astounding.
[It would seem the CPG has faced reality and moved. The seem to have all moved together; within 24 hours; strength of the herd mentality is astounding.]
I’m confused.
You mean he is no longer the messiah, or he is back to being the messiah?
I’m getting the spooky feeling that I am the only person on the planet left reading ‘thefairgo’. You can almost see the tumbleweeds…
Bernie Sanders destroys Trumpcare in an emotional speech in the Senate. Well worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOkx2AFmuQA
Trump and the Republicans will be the ruination of America.
adrian @ #610 Wednesday, June 28th, 2017 – 5:47 pm
Maybe. Things change in two years. I expect the next election will be run on tax cuts for the middle class. The Australian Electorate has always been susceptible to bribery.
grimace @ #606 Wednesday, June 28th, 2017 – 5:36 pm
I read there are 40,000 jobs under pressure. Seems like something voters might get ansty about.
I was watching the movie Crimson Tide yesterday with Gene Hackman and Denzel Washington in which a submarine commander is prevented by his second in charge from making a catastrophic mistake which would have plunged the world into nuclear war. At the end of the movie the following statement appeared:
” As of January 1996 primary authority and ability to fire nuclear missiles will no longer rest with the US Submarine Commanders. Principal control will reside with the President of the United States.”
Considering the ‘quality’ of the current occupant of that position I don’t think that makes me feel any safer.
Tom Elliott, a died in the wool Liberal supporter, was very critical of it yesterday.
Sharri Markson on The Drum just said that Alan Jones and Ray Hadley are “the mainstream”.
She means the mainstream of 2GB listners and Fox News viewers.
Darn @ #621 Wednesday, June 28th, 2017 – 6:11 pm
It certainly reeks of a Year 10 Science experiment.
Frednk
Yes, it seems to be going that way.
The Press also seem somewhat approving of Rhiannon in the ‘Rhiannon -v- rest of the Greens’.
Steve777
Sharri likes to think she is with the strength, and knows stuff.
Zoom, when go have had enough of fairgo.com.au you could surf over to this
http://tonyabbott.com.au/
‘Lets make Australia Work Again’
(Interesting that the site and http://thefairgo.com/ do not support https).
Sharri likes to think she thinks. But as with everything else she is wrong about that.
“The new census figures indicate that there are just 46,800 gay couples in Australia — a whopping 0.38 per cent of the population. So same-sex marriage is hardly a mainstream matter.
Human lifestyle choices are remarkably creative, and we can be confident that, once the definition of marriage has been amended, over time it will have to be altered to include other variant unions, such as polygamous relationships. We are in denial if we believe that the social push will simply stop at gay marriage. Changing an institution to cater for 0.38 per cent of the population should not be on the agenda’.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/letters/small-number-of-gay-couples-show-that-ssm-is-not-a-mainstream-issue/news-story/0133ec7894c96e3e8114a0db9691fb69
zoomster @ #616 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 5:59 pm
Any new articles or good comments?
lizzie @ #630 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 6:32 pm
THAT’S how it’s done Malcolm!
I don’t think the press are pro-Rhiannon so much as they have no idea who they are supposed to be tacitly supporting in this case. Since the Greens are one of the few things News Corp hates more than the ALP, and that they usually go in guns blazing on Rhiannon because of her links to the Socialist Party , result ends up seeming more friendly to her than usual.
Don’t worry though, the Courier Mail still hates her though and ran a story in the last couple of days about her being terrible for supporting the Australian Unemployed Union because the market is the best solution. Despite this having almost nothing to do with a Queensland Newspaper.
ctar1 @ #487 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 1:04 pm
….
But the LNP boycotted the official opening. Also claiming the cost the petrol used to take guests etc to the opening “could not be justified”.
https://twitter.com/Shorten_Suite/status/842147692784439296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Soo….some ‘support’.
Things never change with the tories.
Elaugaufein @ #633 Wednesday, June 28th, 2017 – 6:42 pm
It’s all about the money.
NSW Greens are separate entity to the other Greens. They pay the Feds a levy. I believe the Feds want $40k from NSW to assist the Greens to upgrade their IT. Wouldn’t like their chances if they expel the NSW Senator.
I do wish these people would explain why Polyamorous marriage would be a bad thing rather that just toss it out there like it’s obvious.
I can certainly see done bureaucratic and legal problems but that doesn’t seem to be the angle they are approaching it from.
(Which isn’t to say there aren’t certain Polyamorous relationship structures that are morally problematic but this is hardly untrue of standard marriage either).
Dave
“Things never change with the tories.”
.
Indeed. The CSIRO build the 3rd or 4th electronic computer in the world but wool research got the priority 🙁 Ah the Menzies era.
A little gift for the Liberals’ supporters:
Broadcasters soar as fees waived
STEPHEN BROOK
Shares in the free-to-air TV networks have soared following Canberra’s move to bypass the Senate and cut licence fees.
Dave – Yep. I recall they declined to visit Adaminaby even after the Govt offered to bus them and back for the opening.
IIRC all State Greens are independent entities and Federal Greens money is passed upwards (structurally everything originates from the branches).
It was part of the concessions to get NSW on board with the Federalising of the Greens. NSW has unusal sway because it brings in about 30% of the funds despite its poor Federal Senate results.
It doesn’t help that NSW Greens are currently having a pretty public civil war between Rhiannon’s faction and another group and the battle lines are close to 50/50 internally.
Lizzie
And she gets very agro when it’s demonstrated that she’s wRONg on something.
Shari Markson never realised that when you make the transition from the shitty magazines like Women’s Day to a newspaper you actually cant make up shit and publish it.
Polyamorous marriages seem to be about a man having many wives. If it means a woman can have a husband for every trade needed in the house, it would never be legalised.
Lee Rhiahannon suspended from Greens Party Room pending negotiations with NSW Branch.
bemused
They’ve basically deleted the comments on most articles and no, there are no good articles, although some are unintentionally hilarious – there’s one on ‘how to do good policy’ which keeps quoting Menzies in laughable ways (I half expected something along the lines of “As Menzies once said, the sun rises in the east…”).
Puff
I’m pretty sure the people who spend their time freaking out of over SSM being a path to Polyamorous marriage would probably freak out less if they though it would be man and wives.
zoomster @ #616 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 5:59 pm
If you’ve registered under “alternative” details, you’ll see I’ve scattered a few comments hither and thither. Well, they were still there as of this morning anyway.
Seems rather extreme to me. Where are you hearing that CTar?
ctar1 @ #645 Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 7:14 pm
So there’s only one stable major party at the moment.