Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Another stable two-party reading from Essential Research, as Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns confirm the impression of big swings to Labor in Queensland and Western Australia.

The Guardian reports the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has come in at 52-48 to Labor for a third week in a row, with the Coalition (39%), Labor (36%) and the Greens (10%) each managing to gain a point on the primary vote, as One Nation’s recent run of good polling form comes to an end with a two point drop to 7%. The poll also finds 78% of respondents on board for the no-brainer of real-time disclosure of political donations, 79% for politicians having to disclose meetings with companies, donors or unions, 64% for a ban on foreign donations and 61% for a $5000 cap on donations, but only 30% for a ban on donations and more public funding in its stead. Also featured are Essential’s occasional suite of questions on the personal attributes of the two leaders, on which I’ll wait on their full release later today before reaching any conclusions.

The other news in polldom this week is Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, age, gender and metro/non-metro, which are helpfully laid out in very great detail here. Statewise, the picture is overwhelmingly one of uniformity, with Labor leading 53-47 through the April-June quarter everywhere except South Australia, where it was 56-44. In swing terms, this suggests less change in New South Wales and Victoria compared with the 2016 result than the smaller states. When these numbers are plugged into the next BludgerTrack update, they will tend to boost Labor in New South Wales, where the swing presently recorded is an anomalously modest 0.7%, without making much difference elsewhere. Also of note is a two-point drop for One Nation in Western Australia in the wake of the state election, compared with stable results elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

755 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. [Truffles carrying on about “pumped hydro” as if it will solve all the problems of Oz energy. Might have been more effective if he didn’t keeping pinching his nose all the time.]

    Pumped hydro for the Snowy is designed to keep coal power stations in NSW and QLD operating for longer.

  3. An international team including Sybren Drijfhout, Professor in Physical Oceanography and Climate Physics, looked at what might happen if carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated.

    Using new projections of Antarctic mass loss and a revised statistical method, they concluded that a worst-case scenario of a 2.5 to three-metre sea level rise was possible by 2100.

    Professor Drijfhout said: “It might be an unlikely scenario, but we can’t exclude the possibility of global sea levels rising by more than three metres by the year 2100.

    “Unabated global warming will lead to sea-level rise of many metres – possibly more than ten metres – within a few centuries, seriously threatening many cities all over the world that are built in low-lying river deltas. This will also seriously affect the coastline of the UK.”

    “We should not forget that the Paris Agreement is only a declaration of intention, and that no adequate measures have yet been agreed to turn these intentions into policy.”

    The team’s projection explicitly accounted for three scientific uncertainties – the speed at which the Antarctic ice sheet is going to melt, the speed at which the ocean is warming up, and the amount of emitted greenhouse gases over the 21st century.

    https://phys.org/news/2017-04-sea-metres.html

  4. Indeed Question. Even Trumble couldn’t pull off a masterstroke of having all of the media love he was getting over Conski turned into shit overnight. Brian would have loved to be telling the whole wide world how great he is and how Conski proved how he was getting on with the job and wasn’t the loons sock puppet.

    Not going so good that plan. If this is the moderates (sic) in the ascendancy then being under the thumb is impossible to visualize.

  5. Derryn Hinch’s last big story about Ashby and One Nation fizzled. But, he has double downed.

    Senior Canberra journos know exactly whom I’m talking about over Lib leaks to Shorten. That shoe will drop.

  7. Greensborough Growler
    Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 2:43 pm
    Anyone else remember Tony abbott’s solemn promise when he was deposed?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/there-will-be-no-wrecking-no-undermining-and-no-sniping-tony-abbotts-final-statement-as-prime-minister-20150915-gjmxzv.html
    ********************************************
    But given that he also said ‘no cuts to the ABC, no cuts to…..’ why would anyone have thought the above promise to be true? It is a pathological liar.

  8. [That’s quite possible. 5/6th of weight loss is CO2]
    Abbott calls this carbon dockside.
    He says it’s colourless and weightless.

  10. Someone inside the Libs leaking directly to the ALP would be one of the less surprising pieces of news.

    Shorten has gazumped Trumble on policy so many times it’s been like he got the minutes of Liberals policy meetings.

  11. Ratsak,
    The CPG is one thing. I don’t understand the apparent GG love of Turnbull. : )
    He is part of the problem GG. The ‘wets’ vrs ‘dries’ is just a ‘poor Malcolm’ excuse. They should sort out that crap in opposition. Turnbull is cutting taxes for the rich and corporations and increasing them for everyone else.

  13. Ratsak

    This is him and his supporters being reminded what the limits of their domain are and getting a smack on the nose for trying to go outside the fence.

    Yep. Just like in December if you remember this –

    After telling the ABC on Monday an emissions intensity scheme was being looked at as part of the inquiry, the minister on Tuesday denied ever mentioning it and on Wednesday said one wouldn’t be introduced.

    Turnbull sends them out, the RW’s descend like a ton of bricks and then Turnbull says they were ‘freelancing’.

  14. Question @ #562 Wednesday, June 28th, 2017 – 3:27 pm

    Ratsak,
    The CPG is one thing. I don’t understand the apparent GG love of Turnbull. : )
    He is part of the problem GG. The ‘wets’ vrs ‘dries’ is just a ‘poor Malcolm’ excuse. They should sort out that crap in opposition. Turnbull is cutting taxes for the rich and corporations and increasing them for everyone else.

    Turnbull is the centre right dream candidate. This is the social space many journos live in. Turnbull is urbane, charming, dreamer of a better society and self made man. He hits all the buttons for the aspirationals. That he can’t execute is not necessarily a game breaker. It’s the image that is important here.

  16. GG,
    Senior Canberra journos know exactly whom I’m talking about over Lib leaks to Shorten. That shoe will drop.

    Do you think the shoe is a Christian Louboutin?

  17. C@tmomma @ #566 Wednesday, June 28th, 2017 – 3:43 pm

    GG,
    Senior Canberra journos know exactly whom I’m talking about over Lib leaks to Shorten. That shoe will drop.

    Do you think the shoe is a Christian Louboutin?

    Don’t know. But, if the Turnbull camp was made aware of who was leaking, it could have been the catalyst for the “Black hand” speech by Pyne.

  18. Turnbull is the centre right dream candidate. This is the social space many journos live in. Turnbull is urbane, charming, dreamer of a better society and self made man. He hits all the buttons for the aspirationals. That he can’t execute is not necessarily a game breaker. It’s the image that is important here.

    Agreed,

    If Abbott get’s back to PM then he’ll also get promoted back to king-dick in my book. The elevated status comes with the job. 🙂

  19. Just saw.
    “Pyne has called Libs in marginal seats to express disappointment that his comments were taped & regret that he made them in the first place”

  21. David Lipson‏Verified account @davidlipson
    ” Pyne has called Libs in marginal seats to express disappointment that his comments were taped & regret that he made them in the first place”.

  22. Pyne going the grovel is a demonstration of his ascendancy.

    In much the same way as Rhyming Slang and his mates going the grovel was a demonstration of their ascendancy over the Victorian Supreme Court.

  23. ratsak @ #572 Wednesday, June 28th, 2017 – 4:00 pm

    Pyne going the grovel is a demonstration of his ascendancy.

    In much the same way as Rhyming Slang and his mates going the grovel was a demonstration of their ascendancy over the Victorian Supreme Court.

    As Tony abbott might say, “It’s better to ask for forgiveness than approval”.

  25. The big problem for the libs is that it is a party based on the principle that everybody should look after themselves. I mean, the founding principle of the liberal party is not exactly a great cement. So unless they can create a leadership cult (Howard) they’re stuffed.

  27. ‘It’s the image that is important here.’

    And the image outside the confines of the CPG and LNP, is of an incomparable waffler/bullshit artist who believes in nothing beyond his own ambition.

  29. This was a good burn from yesterday’s Crikey:

    Penalising employees does not help employment. You’d be aware of the terrible burden that Australia’s hospitality sector is labouring under with penalty rates, that massive burden on the sector that prevents them from employing more people? Some relief is on the way, of course — the Fair Work Commission in its wisdom decided to cut Sunday and public holiday penalty rates for workers in the hospitality and retail sectors. And not a moment too soon — the hospitality sector is critically endangered. In detailed employment data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics last week for the May quarter, employment in the food and beverage sub-sector plunged to 777,000 workers. Well, by “plunged” we actually mean “surged” — that figure was a 3.7% increase on the February quarter and a 4.6% rise on the corresponding quarter in 2016. And that’s an 18% increase from the corresponding quarter five years ago. At nearly 6.4% of the entire workforce, food and beverage service employs a greater proportion of Australians than at any point in history. But penalty rates, etc, etc.

  30. If the Pyne leak was from the PMO, then why was it released just when the basking in gonski was cranking up.
    The timing reeks of monkey pod.

  32. Vogon
    And I’m told the tape went to Bolt, who is more connected to the monkey pod… or maybe they’re being so clever that… nah.

  33. “I am not into political slogans. I am into engineering and economics,” the Prime Minister said.
    Translated: “engineering” as in Fraudband and “economics” as in record levels of deficit and debt.

    In response to Mr Abbott’s manifesto, which implicitly questioned the government’s direction, Mr Turnbull said Australians were bored with internal party politics and wanted action on policy.

    “My message to politicians and journalists alike, in the happy family in the big house in Canberra, is don’t focus on yourselves – focus on the people who elected us.”

    “I am not into political slogans. I am into engineering and economics,” the Prime Minister said at an event marking the imminent start of works of the “Snowy Hydro 2.0” project.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-blasts-personality-politics-amid-latest-tony-abbott-policy-intervention-20170628-gx02vq.html

  38. C@tmomma
    I wouldn’t worry about Christian Porter in Pearce, he’s going to be made redundant at the next election. Part of the reason for the mortal fear that the WA Liberals are feeling at the moment is that if you overlay the booth results from the WA state election onto Pearce, he’s staring down the barrel of a -18% swing, which is well more than enough to get the future Labor candidate elected on primary vote.

  41. Moksha,
    Maybe Mr Bowe will let me post the whole piece tomorrow, when it is old news?

    Here’s the first few pars but you really need to read all of it:

    Poll Bludger: Census results deliver electoral omen of doom for Turnbull

    As if Malcolm Turnbull’s beleaguered government didn’t have enough to contend with, yet more cause for pessimism about its electoral prospects has arrived in the form of yesterday’s release of data from the 2016 census.

    Most explicitly, the latest population numbers bring the Coalition one seat closer to defeat by all but confirming that the Australian Capital Territory will gain a third House of Representatives seat when the determination is officially made at the end of August.

    Needless to say, any seat in the national capital is all but certain to be won by Labor, except in the event of a Coalition landslide that certainly doesn’t look to be in prospect at the moment.

    The census figures also highlight a number of worrying demographic trends for the Coalition.

  42. @ Diogenes
    We have the same issue with prostitution here too. In one small town I lived in, the police station, courthouse, corrective services office and local brothel were all on the same street and within a few hundred meters of each other. And it’s not like you could have mistaken the brothel for a church.

    For years the police operated a “containment” policy outside the law, where prostitutes and brothel owners registered with the police and in return were left alone. The policy was formally ended a while ago, though in practice prostitution continues openly without any practical risk of sanction.

    It’s another example here of where the difference between the law and actual practice allows corruption and abuse to flourish, without any meaningful risk of legal sanction.

    These are all examples of where the religious get in the way of sensible regulation which would benefit all concerned.

  44. One wonders that, if an Assisted Dying Bill passes the Victorian parliament, whether a federal Coalition government would, or could overturn it, again? I know they overturned the NT law, but was that because they were a Territory?

  45. Has Mesma raised her snake filled hair yet? Has she started to shift her wagon over to any other Mule.
    Just another Deputies position serving under …………..(fill in name)
    Gawd it would be a noice sight to see Bishop Jnr snarling from the Back Bench

  47. grimace @ #588 Wednesday, June 28th, 2017 – 4:34 pm

    C@tmomma
    I wouldn’t worry about Christian Porter in Pearce, he’s going to be made redundant at the next election. Part of the reason for the mortal fear that the WA Liberals are feeling at the moment is that if you overlay the booth results from the WA state election onto Pearce, he’s staring down the barrel of a -18% swing, which is well more than enough to get the future Labor candidate elected on primary vote.

    It’s never a good idea to extrapolate the Government’s (whatever ideological bent) popularity continuing forever. Things change. Not the least of which is we are talking a Federal election and not a State election.

    The other factor is that the new Government will make some hard decisions that will affect the livelihoods of voters. For example.
    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-public-sector-tension-as-kim-papalia-quits-20170627-gwzty7.html

  48. AR
    Very true.
    CT
    Owler is the only AMA president I can recall thinking was a quality individual.
    Grimace
    It’s another of those unenforced laws. DVDs of an explicit nature (phrased to avoid the auto sin bin) are sold everywhere in Australia but they are actually illegal whereas magazines are legal (for some bizarre reason). Very, very occasionally a video store gets raided but it’s mainly a blind eye.

  49. **the founding principle of the liberal party is not exactly a great cement**
    Power is the glue. You cant have power if the other team has it. It explains a lot.

    They are a silhouette of an imaginary object.

  50. In SA, the Assisted Dying bill almost passed; it was tied with Atkinson as Speaker having to break the deadlock and voting against.

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