Labor’s lead remains steady at 52-48 in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (steady), 35% for Labor 35% (down one), 9% for Greens 9% (down one) and 9% for One Nation (up one), whose curious resurgence was the subject of an article I had in Crikey on Monday. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull down one on approval to 36% and down three on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten steady at 34% and down two to 43%; and Turnbull leading 39-26 on preferred prime minister, up from 39-31 last month. In other findings, the poll also records only 17% saying the recent budget improved their perception of the government, compared with 30% saying it made it worse; a 41-32 majority in favour of a clean energy target if it resulted in price rises of 5%, turning into a 50-21 deficit if they rose 10%; and 64% favouring investment in renewables in a no-strings-attached question compared with 18% for coal.
Also out yesterday was the Lowy Institute’s annual survey on Australian attitudes to international affairs and the direction of the country. Among many other things, the results find Australians continuing to rate the alliance with the United States highly (53% very important and 29% fairly important, recovering to near 2015 levels after a dip to 42% and 29% last year), with Donald Trump’s influence on perceptions of the US rating slightly less badly than George W. Bush in 2007 (60% said Trump contributed to an unfavourable opinion of the United States against 37% for no, compared with 69% and 27% for Bush). However, the proportion of respondents rating the US as Australia’s best friend has slumped from 35% to 17% since 2014, with the beneficiary being New Zealand, up from 32% to 53%. Only 20% now say they have a “great deal” of trust in the US to act responsibly in the world, compared with 40% in 2011.
So what does today’s episode of Crumble with Trumble have in store for us?
The DUP are prepared to sit at the negotiating table for decades to get the deal they want. Theresa doesn’t have a hope.
P.S. Who the hell as a name like “Slade Brockman.” Sounds like a Hollywood hitman.
CTar1
#50 Wednesday, June 21, 2017 at 9:30 am
Thanks for your advice.
Yes indeedy, I will read the instructions carefully.
I don’t get it. How can both the Labor pv and the Greens pv drop by one without affecting the 2pp – unchanged from last week at 52-48.
This in the Guardian live blog suggests the Greens under Di Natale are about to fold on Gonski:
Cathy McGowan @Indigocathy 6m6 minutes ago
Paired with Andrew @WilkieMP yesterday due to his unavoidable absence from House. Made no difference to the outcome. http://bit.ly/2snRssm
Di Natale doesn’t have things all his way (Guardian live blog):
…to think I thought my vote counted….
This could be an interesting day for the occupant of Toad Hall.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/jun/21/australia-politics-live-turnbull-shorten
Morning all
The Andrews govt have been quite busy with infrastructure projects including level crossing removals, new trains, new stations, road widening etc. Metro tunnel starting etc. Whilst all good. Disruptive and people always whinge.
Also many residents not at all happy with the big boom of townhouse and apartment constructions in the suburbs which was going to happen under either govt.
With respect to law and order, there is much angst re the home invasions and carjackings. Also the drug ice causing many assaults and disturbances around the place.
Heaps more funding has gone to policing etc, but ice is a scourge and a diffcult one to deal with
Victoria
And they’re all city issues. As the poll says, there’s a city/country divide.
Zoomster
Unfortunately, The drug problem is much more pronounced in several regional areas.
I am not sure what govt resources have been allocated to the regions to deal with this, but it is putting pressure on many communities
As I’ve said before Fess, it doesn’t make any difference. They are all Liberals and they all sing from the same song sheet. We would be better off without any of them, male or female.
Zoomster
The Vic govt have also allocated funding for regional rail
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-30/regional-rail-funding-boost-in-victorian-budget/8483682
So many Americans are addicted to the Repugs. It is like their opium. They may show signs they want to give up but when the shooting up starts the junkies come out.
Early results show Georgia will go to the Republican. Democrats need to win these (and harder ones) if they want to control the House in 2018.
“Georgia” = “Georgia 6”.
Victoria
Yes, I’m aware of the problems with ICE in regional centres, and I’m also aware of regional rail funding. I’m also aware, as someone who lives in regional Victoria, that there IS a perception that the Andrews government isn’t very interested in the country. This poll seems to support that perception.
Another twist for Gonski!
https://twitter.com/
Zoomster
What can Andrews do to change the perception?
Victoria
Getting out and about a bit more would help. Both Bracks and Brumby spent a lot of time visiting the regions. We don’t see Ministers, let alone the Premier.
Trouble in Corbyn’s paradise?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/20/unite-official-gerard-coyne-who-lost-to-len-mccluskey-in-leadership-race-sacked
Good summary Vic. I must confess that I’ve almost reached the stage where I’d like to see that little weasel Guy (he looks like one too) trying to handle all the difficult problems he keeps criticising the Andrews government for. I reckon he’s all piss and wind. The only thing he would be any good at is looking after his rich mates in the big end of town, which is the basic requirement of all Liberal leaders.
Mama Weer All Right-Wing Crazees Now
Zoomster
That surprises me about Daniel Andrews considering he was born and raised in regional Victoria. Wangaratta?
Labour 35, Greens 9, Liberals 38, One Nation 9, ‘someone else’ 9.
So if we add 80% of the Greens and half of all others (except the Libs) to Labor’s 2PP I get 51-49. It is hard to see how Labor and Green could have dropped 1% each without affecting the 2PP.
Darn
Agree re Matthew Guy. Everytime his head pops up on tv, everyone in my household lets out a collective sigh. Mind you he is from our part of the world. What an embarrassment!!
Looks like Malcolm has had DiNatalie into his office, popped him onto his knee, stroked his back and told him that he’s a real “player”.
Vic & Z0om
One thing that bothers me about the Vic Govt is that they seem to be completely ignoring the destruction of our forests and the effect on native animals through logging. I appreciate what they are doing in the city, but my area relies on tourism, and forestry is being given precedence. The destruction of native habitat is criminal.
Victoria
Yes, he’s a local and makes a big deal of it.
Compare and contrast: Bracks and Brumby, who weren’t locals, visited all the time and met with locals. Andrews only comes here to visit his mum (laudatory). As local branch members, we’ve never been given an opportunity to meet with him, whereas we saw Bracks and Brumby all the time.
I really don’t want to go on about this. I hate sounding negative about a Labor government, and I recognise Andrews has done lots of Good Things. But his government is city-centered and it’s not surprising polls reflect that.
@ Steve777. Try looking at rounding, and use a realistic number for greens preference flows. From those preferences, the TPP result could even come out to 53 to Labour
I bet Labor is hoping that the Green support Conski 2.0. The Greens (and the Govt) alienate lots of voters and Labor can still campaign on Gonski at the next election.
Very close results so far in the US special congressional elections….
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-congressional-runoff-ossoff-handel?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/south-carolina-house-special-election?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
Rounding, rounding, rounding people. The 1% changes could be less than 0.1% before rounding, or more than 1.9%.
That Essential has Labor’s PV down in consecutive weeks could be saying something, but seeing as Newspoll has Labor going ahead on PV it probably is noise.
Both polls showing One Nation up is more likely to mean something, but we’ll need more evidence to confirm.
If The Greens fold on Conski they should just change their name to The Blue Green Political Pond Scum Party. No backbone!
The latest figures on the Georgia Special Election:
Ossoff: 50.4%
Handel: 49.6%
I suppose if in the last two Essential surveys Labor and Greens changed from 35.51 to 35.49 and 9.51 to 9.49, the rounded numbers could be the same between this poll and the last poll.
As for preferences, Labor has received about 80% of Green preferences in recent elections. It was 82% at the last Federal election. I don’t know why it isn’t 100 (or a bit less, allowing for donkeys). Voting Green and preferencing L/NP makes as much sense to me as voting Animal Justice and preferencing Shooters and Fishers, but people do it. That some One Nation voters preference Labor is more understandable but I’m a bit surprised it’s nearly 50%. As for the rest, I just assume it’s 50-50, which is also close to the general population split.
Anton,
Correct.
If the Greens cave they’ll have an internecine war. The government will still have it’s internal battles, especially with the Catholics, and they’ll have the Catholic sector at least after them and probably other sectors if there is a a whiff of special dealing.
And that’s all before the argument starts up again next year due to the delay and review being offered to the Catholics.
It’s a typical Trumble clusterfuck. No preparation, just desperation to get anything through the Senate.
Shorten will sit back and enjoy the Libs and Greens tear themselves apart, bank the good bits and have more to offer come the election.
I’m actually hoping that the Greens get the deal done on Gonski 2.0. It’s not what we want but it is closer to it. Labor can remain pure in opposing it now, and fix it when they get in.
Rex mode on!!
Which just proves what a complete and utter bastard he is and how unfit to lead the ALP!!!
Rex mode off!!
C@Tmomma
Wednesday, June 21, 2017 at 10:46 am
The Gs are playing their usual game – handing the LNP a win, hoping this will lift the LNP’s polling and increasing possible G leverage at an election. The Gs reckon they can profit most when the electorate is most finely balanced. They affiliate themselves with the LNP for tactical reasons while never ceasing to campaign against Labor.
This is a dead-end for the Gs, though they are loathe to admit it. Their failure to improve in either the polls or in elections is attributable to what is a stale and depleted strategy. Rather than aiding their own project, their strategy tends to help the pop-Right and the LNP. Needless to say, it also alienates Labor-positive voters, who see the Gs as Lib-shadows. It also confuses G-leaning voters about the actual purpose and values represented by the Gs.
If the Gs sell out on education, the LNP may benefit, but the Gs certainly will not. They will be seen as weak on a totemic issue of social and economic policy. When Labor campaigns on education in the future, they will implicitly be campaigning against both the LNP and the Gs. That’s good for Labor.
Suddenly, there is more money on the table.
“Crossbench thinks it can get deal to roll out schools cash over 6-7 years with more up front. Extra $4b being talked about. States to match”.
Doubt Ossoff’s lead will hold. Handel’s strongest area is the slowest to report, while Ossoff’s has been the fastest.
Same thing happened with Florida in the general election. Early results showed a good lead for Hillary, then the more conservative districts started coming in a bit later and it all went to shit. Story of the night, really.
If Lee Rhiannon votes against Conski 2.0, does that mean that the Govt will need every single cross-bencher? Lambie has been awfully quiet.
@ Briefly – shush please.
They are creating a compromise proposal to increase the amount of funding specifically in the early years, knowing that Labor will get into power soon and completely overwrite any agreements made for the later years.
Their goal is to increase school funding, and they look to be achieving it.
People on PB criticise the Greens when they are too idealistic and ‘go for all of nothing instead of half of something’. Then they turn around and criticise them again for getting half of something instead of all of nothing. You must pick, right now, are you going to criticise the Greens for being too idealistic and refusing to compromise, or for being willing to compromise and not being idealistic enough? Once you have picked, you may no longer make the other criticism.
AR
It depends on how big the lead is. It will be reduced for the reasons you say. Is it enough for Orsoff to win? We will actually have to have patience to find out
Re Georgia 5, and AR’s speculation. This Politico result tracker is the most useful, since it only reports precinct results when they are finalised.
http://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/georgia-special-election-results-2017-ossoff-handel-race/
At present it says:
“Republican candidates won 51.0 percent of the district vote in the April 18 all-party primary and Democrats won 48.9 percent.
In fully reporting precincts on June 20, Republican Karen Handel has 52.3 precent of the vote, and Democrat Jon Ossoff has 47.7 percent of the vote. Handel is running 2.8 points behind where Republicans ran in those precincts in April. Ossoff is running 2.7 points ahead of where Democrats ran in those precincts in the primary.”
If the 2.7 ahead of primary position by Ossoff holds, then he will win by over 1%.
JeremyCorbyn4PM: Jeremy: For those who want to divide us, the only response is to bring communities together in solidarity pic.twitter.com/qGxLpD5MEA
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn4pm/status/877296203796557828
Looks like AR is right. Figures from 538. Not looking so good for Dems
Georgia 6
Karen Handel 97,202 52.7%
Jon Ossoff 87,155 47.3%
50% of precincts reporting
What kind of arrogant bullshit is that? Issues, votes, situations should be assessed on a case by case basis and with a view to trends. Greens have done some good from time to time, but they have to own their fwark ups on policy/tactics as well same as any political party.
Briefly
The Greens are playing the LNP for a blinder. If you listen to the Greens and ignore what the LNP are saying that is.
Senator Di Natale was crystal clear in his comments today.
The Senator was talking getting architecture in place so when Labor is elected the position can be improved. Don’t fall for the LNP and media spin the comments coming out from the Greens is far from positive for the government