Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Six weeks on, Essential Research finds the budget has done the government more harm than good, as the Lowy Institute reports a mixed bag of attitudes about the United States.

Labor’s lead remains steady at 52-48 in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (steady), 35% for Labor 35% (down one), 9% for Greens 9% (down one) and 9% for One Nation (up one), whose curious resurgence was the subject of an article I had in Crikey on Monday. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull down one on approval to 36% and down three on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten steady at 34% and down two to 43%; and Turnbull leading 39-26 on preferred prime minister, up from 39-31 last month. In other findings, the poll also records only 17% saying the recent budget improved their perception of the government, compared with 30% saying it made it worse; a 41-32 majority in favour of a clean energy target if it resulted in price rises of 5%, turning into a 50-21 deficit if they rose 10%; and 64% favouring investment in renewables in a no-strings-attached question compared with 18% for coal.

Also out yesterday was the Lowy Institute’s annual survey on Australian attitudes to international affairs and the direction of the country. Among many other things, the results find Australians continuing to rate the alliance with the United States highly (53% very important and 29% fairly important, recovering to near 2015 levels after a dip to 42% and 29% last year), with Donald Trump’s influence on perceptions of the US rating slightly less badly than George W. Bush in 2007 (60% said Trump contributed to an unfavourable opinion of the United States against 37% for no, compared with 69% and 27% for Bush). However, the proportion of respondents rating the US as Australia’s best friend has slumped from 35% to 17% since 2014, with the beneficiary being New Zealand, up from 32% to 53%. Only 20% now say they have a “great deal” of trust in the US to act responsibly in the world, compared with 40% in 2011.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,400 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. ‘ Once you have picked, you may no longer make the other criticism. ‘

    But surely this also applies to the Greens? Or are they the only ones allowed to be inconsistent?

  2. guytaur

    The problem with voting for something on the basis that a Labor government will then fix it is that Labor might not get into government.

  4. zoomster

    Get the architecture in place and no matter how long it takes for Labor to be elected then it can be improved.

    Its crystal clear to me the media is talking up the LNP big time on the basis of listening to the LNP. They are ignoring what the Greens are saying. It sounds to me like the Greens are not falling for a little money up front.

    They want the true needs based architecture in place. So despite what you are hearing from the media and the LNP the Greens are a long way from supporting Gonski 2.0

    There is a lot of hot air but if you actually listen to the public comments from the Greens it looks like they are not supporting the government. This is good news to me. It means the government is doing its usual style of negotiation and that Gonski 2.0 will fail and the existing deals the Gillard government put in place will remain.

    This could change of course but thats what it looks like to me when you stop listening to to the media parroting LNP talking points

  5. So Fulton and Cobb have pretty much reported, and been favorable to the Republicans.

    Few votes counted in Dekalb, which is always the Democrat county.

    R have a 5.2% lead on votes counted so far, but D have an estimated 6.2 margin on the remaining.

    So if the USA is becoming more geographically polarised, then we could have an upset when Dekalb starts to report serious numbers.

    But unlikely at this point.

  6. Good morning all,

    I find it very interesting that the government is tossing in extra money and committing the states and territories to do the same. I wonder how much consultation Burmingham has had with those same states and territories over the past few days ? It is very easy to sign them up simply to get a deal done and not even talk to them.

    Any changes to state / federal allocation would need to go to COAG and given the states and territories have signed agreements I am sure they would find it a bit alarming that Birmingham is locking them in to funding more without even getting their agreement.

    Cheers.

  7. Voice Endeavour
    Wednesday, June 21, 2017 at 11:09 am
    @ Briefly – shush please.

    People on PB criticise the Greens when they are too idealistic and ‘go for all of nothing instead of half of something’. Then they turn around and criticise them again for getting half of something instead of all of nothing. You must pick, right now, are you going to criticise the Greens for being too idealistic and refusing to compromise, or for being willing to compromise and not being idealistic enough? Once you have picked, you may no longer make the other criticism.

    I’ve never called the Gs idealists. Their supporters may be. But the G-niks in the Senate are Libs in drag. They align themselves against Labor all the time. They are the friends of Labor’s enemies and therefore they are also Labor’s enemies. They are absolutely not to be trusted.

  8. Guytaur,

    The MSM are simply willing Turnbull to have a ” win”.

    Despite the concerns of teachers, parents, the Catholic sector, state and territory governments the MSM continues to parrot the same Ol line of ” real needs based funding “. They would not have a analytical bone in their bodies.

    The MSM are pushing for a Turnbull win. Nothing more nothing less and yet the have the gall to condemn labor for playing politics.

    Cheers.

  9. Doyley

    Yes another sign the Greens are a long way from supporting the government. No need to chuck money at them if they are on board.

  10. The Greens may vary well get a good result on Conski. That is hardly a basis to criticise Labor on.

    By refusing to give the Coalition an inch and also maximizing pressure on the Greens, Labor ensures the government has to cave, the Greens drive a hand bargain, and both still pay a political price internally and externally.

    You might be all kumbyah and cry about such cynicism. Welcome to the real world. Labor paid much higher political prices for trying to do the right thing.

  11. BTW,

    The only reason the greens are not committing atm is because Di Natalie cannot herd the chooks. It has nothing to do with considering the detail.

    Never underestimate the internals within the greens.

    Cheers.

  12. This schools funding thing sh%ts me.

    The Libs are trying to stampede the Parliament to vote for it (not the first time they’ve tried this.

    The fairness of the ‘formula’ should have been sorted by issuing an old fashioned ‘green paper’ months ago and letting everyone involved sort through it by now.

    The ‘how much’ to ‘feed to’ the formula for distribution is separate budget decision but it seems the Libs decided to put their proposals forward as one so the issues are conflated and confused.

    Ar$eholes.

  13. Regarding Victorian poll, I think the usual caution needs to be applied for commissioned polls, particularly if the group behind is anonymous. We also had a commissioned Reachtel showing 46-54 a few months back, with results not released, also appearing in Herald Sun.

  14. Doyley

    Unlike you I take the public comments and don’t try to do mind reading. The Greens took the government concessions to the party room and the party room said no deal. Same process Labor takes.

    Rumour about internals in the Greens will be very Chinese whispers by all those opposed to the Greens so such talk cannot be relied on. We have to go on public statements. Just like we do with Labor when the Chinese whispers are in full flight

  15. Politico now admitting they stuffed up their earlier figures and now report

    In fully reporting precincts on June 20, Republican Karen Handel has 53.8 percent of the vote, and Democrat Jon Ossoff has 46.2 percent of the vote. Handel is running 2.7 points ahead of where Republicans ran in those precincts in April. Ossoff is running 2.6 points behind where Democrats ran in those precincts in the primary.

    Not good for Ossoff I’m afraid.

  16. srpeatling: ON’s Malcolm Roberts says schools are full of “United Nations driven, ratbag propoganda such as Safe Schools”.

    One nation doing its best to have the Greens oppose the LNP

  17. Just watching special election in Georgia and Carolina. Democrats will be so frustrated they come so close to taking seats but fall just short, again and again. Though, signs for 2018 mid terms look good.

  18. Re Georgia 5 Ignore my previous re Politico results. They have just admitted that their calc was screwed up, and they had everything backwards, ie multiplied by -1. Handel winning easily.

  20. GK

    Yes a close result is a win despite the disappointment the Democrats will be feeling. There is a reason why it was viewed as an election to look at. This was the seat held by Newt Gingrich not exactly Democrat territory. So close to flipping is good news for the Democrats for the Mid Terms

  21. The Guardian:

    Greens senator Janet Rice is speaking on Gonski 2.0.

    She says the Labor claim that the Turnbull plan cuts $22bn in school is meaningless.

    It is a cut of what Labor promised at the 2016 election, not a cut on the status quo. That is, if this bill does not pass, schools will not get $22bn extra over the next decade. She says if Labor wanted to lock in that $22bn, they should have locked it in in 2013 before the election that brought Abbott to power.

    They chose not to do this because they wanted to use school funding in political game playing.

  22. From the Guardian:

    With NXT, PHON and Hinch (8 votes) pro, govt only needs 2/3 of Lambie, Gichuhi and Leyonhjelm to do #Gonski deal without Greens

    and

    @DavidLeyonhjelm says won’t vote for any Gonski deal that increases spending, esp the 6-year bring forward.

  24. Re that Galaxy Victorian poll: I suggest you treat a commissioned poll where the commissioner – according to the Herald-Sun – ‘does not want to be identified’ with the attention it deserves: none.

  25. Labor’s policy position on school funding have been consistent. Labor is well within her rights to stick by policy they took to the election.

  26. Pegasus @ #121 Wednesday, June 21st, 2017 – 11:49 am

    Greens senator Janet Rice is speaking on Gonski 2.0.

    She says the Labor claim that the Turnbull plan cuts $22bn in school is meaningless.

    It is a cut of what Labor promised at the 2016 election, not a cut on the status quo. That is, if this bill does not pass, schools will not get $22bn extra over the next decade. She says if Labor wanted to lock in that $22bn, they should have locked it in in 2013 before the election that brought Abbott to power.

    They chose not to do this because they wanted to use school funding in political game playing.

    Every one of those claims may be accurate. However none of them say where the Greens stand on the issue.

    Thus I’m not sure what her point is, beyond doing some “political game playing” of her own.

  27. GK

    The Greens and Labor are both doing spin. The Greens are right to point to the locking in part. Of course they conveniently ignore that Labor tried to do that but opposition at the time left it unfulfilled.

    So its just spin. Correct but spin nonetheless.

  28. Chris Bonnor and Bernie Shepherd are education policy experts who have both long campaigned for Gonski implementation for equity in school funding.

    1. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/21/weve-been-watching-an-unfolding-disaster-in-schools-for-years-gonski-20-could-turn-it-around

    But there is much more at stake this time around – and before they vote, legislators might like to consider what the Centre for Policy Development analysis of the latest My School data shows: the failure to implement Gonski 1.0 has made a bad school equity and achievement situation worse. The wrong decision on Gonski 2.0 might make it irreparable.

    The priority this week is to put in place arrangements which will deliver for the long term. In particular, fast-tracking the funding boost to disadvantaged schools and creating a National Schools Resourcing Body to make it all happen have to be priorities.

    These two things weren’t done after Gonski 1.0 and the parlous state of current school funding and achievement is a part consequence. Let’s start with the money and where it went after Gonski reported the first time around.

    2. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/06/catholic-schools-crying-foul-is-a-well-worn-ritual-but-funding-levels-cant-be-justified

    The proposed national needs-based funding model will do away with decades of special deals which, among other things, have even seen Catholic schools funded well ahead of independent schools.

    The responses have followed a well-worn ritual, with Catholic school authorities crying foul and the ALP adding to the chorus. Not much has changed in half a century. But in a real break with the past, a conservative government is leading the charge to build some sanity in a funding system that lost its way well over a decade ago. They actually didn’t have any alternative – no one can come up with any narrative to justify the inconsistent, opaque and risible way we fund schools.

    But in defiance of current realities, the response from Catholic school authorities and supporters comes straight from decades-old talking points.

  29. Pegasus
    Wednesday, June 21, 2017 at 11:49 am
    The Guardian:

    Greens senator Janet Rice is speaking on Gonski 2.0.

    The Gs construct their alibi for their sell-out. Never mind. When Labor campaign on education, they will be campaigning against the LNP and their shadows, the Gs.

    We can be very, very sure of one thing. The Gs will never support a Labor education plan. Never.

  30. Meanwhile the CFMEU has been slapped down first by Albanese followed by Shorten for making despicable threats at a rally yesterday:

    Ewin Hannan’s reports Victorian construction union boss John Setka has threatened to reveal the home addresses of ABCC inspectors and lobby their local shopping centres and football clubs to ensure their “kids will be ashamed of who their parents are”.

    :
    Albo welcomed Setka’s reporting to the police.

  31. I find it very difficult to know what is best on Education funding. It has not been made clear what the existing situation is. Any flaws seem to stem mainly from the L-NP at federal and state level playing silly buggers. Yet we are expected to trust them.

    Trust is important because it is also not clear what the new situation will be. That seems to depend on whether the Greens or the cross-bench get their amendments in. And the amendments aren’t very clear either. And I’m also not clear on how internal government squabbling will effect things. Meanwhile, the coverage of the issue seems to be a very general “don’t let this chance slip by – think of the children”. More of a plea from the Turnbull fan club than an explanation of the various positions. As far as I’m concerned it’s all a mess of the L-NP’s making.

  32. Question

    Yep. The ABC headline is clear. Government frantically trying to secure a deal. That does not sound like its going well to me.

  33. “Meanwhile, the coverage of the issue seems to be a very general “don’t let this chance slip by – think of the children”.”

    So true. Especially in fairfax papers. They are trying so hard to give Malcolm a “win”.

  35. This is the ABC report

    A deal could be close

    Education Minister Simon Birmingham has signalled a deal on the Government’s $18.6 billion schools funding plan could be reached within hours. The legislation hit the Senate this morning.

    The Coalition may rely on the Greens to pass the bill. They’ve already secured a number of concessions although its leadership hasn’t confirmed support. It appears they want more concessions.

    Take out the fact the ABC is quoting the Minister and the facts become crystal clear. The government has not got the Greens support. They want more concessions so the government is looking to the other cross benches for deals.

  37. gorkay king @ #113 Wednesday, June 21, 2017 at 11:40 am

    Regarding Victorian poll, I think the usual caution needs to be applied for commissioned polls, particularly if the group behind is anonymous. We also had a commissioned Reachtel showing 46-54 a few months back, with results not released, also appearing in Herald Sun.

    Yes, the old adage applies: “Is it true? Or did you read it in the Herald-Sun?”

  38. billshortenmp: Heartbreaking and upsetting for parents of children with autism to hear @PHON say their kids don’t deserve the same opportunity. twitter.com/srpeatling/sta…

    srpeatling: P. Hanson says kids w disabilities shdn’t be in mainstream classrooms. Says they are there because “we don’t want to make them feel hurt”.

  40. Briefly,

    As has been pointed out on many occasions, in the case of substantive legislation, Labor and the Coalition vote together many more times than the Greens vote with the Coalition.

    For example the NT Intervention (aka Northern Territory National Emergency Response Act 2007):
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/21/10-year-after-the-intervention-its-time-to-admit-it-has-destroyed-aboriginal-communities

    The Deal’s vision of a newly staked trajectory for Indigenous persons via individualised, capital-led transformation coincides with significant media attention to the 25th anniversary of the Mabo decision, 50th anniversary of the 1967 referendum and the Uluru statement culmination of Indigenous people’s caucusing on constitutional recognition.

    The passing of another anniversary has however been strikingly absent from celebrations – the 10th anniversary of the Northern Territory intervention.

    —————————

    … was a legislative response from the Federal Government to the Northern Territory Government’s Inquiry into the Protection of Aboriginal Children from Sexual Abuse, or ‘Little Children are Sacred’ report. The legislation received bipartisan support in the Commonwealth parliament.

  41. zoomster/ctar1

    I guess if the Andrews govt was neglecting the regions fair enough. But if it is only a perception because they dont travel to the regions enough. This is something that can be rectified asap.

    and I would agree with those commenting on the Poll in the Herald Sun. Their agenda has always been anti Andrews from the get go. It would be helpful if we knew who did in fact commission the Poll.

  42. michaelkoziol: Hinch: “I’m proud to announce I will support the bill” #auspol #gonski

    So thats Hinch and Xeonophon along with One Nation going with the government.

  43. I usually don’t have an issue with Greens voting Liberal legislation with amendments. If they also vote for Gonski 2.0, it will be 3rd time in a year Greens saved the government from a tight spot. We had senate reforms, backpacker tax and now this.

  44. The regional disillusionment is not a Victoria only thing. It is well known regional economy is doing poorly as well and growth is in cities. I think Vic government has looked after Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo regions well. (Rail+health investments). There is also fracking ban + Latrobe valley assistance package to help with coal power plant shutdowns.

    Anecdotally, I have seen people complain about regions being neglected however it would be more helpful if people had ideas how to improve on this.

  45. samanthamaiden: Government appears to be trying to force snap Gonski vote on before the Greens have been able to come to final position @SkyNewsAust

  46. victoria @ #141 Wednesday, June 21, 2017 at 12:15 pm

    zoomster/ctar1
    I guess if the Andrews govt was neglecting the regions fair enough. But if it is only a perception because they dont travel to the regions enough. This is something that can be rectified asap.
    and I would agree with those commenting on the Poll in the Herald Sun. Their agenda has always been anti Andrews from the get go. It would be helpful if we knew who did in fact commission the Poll.

    The Herald-Sun is just anti-Labor filth.
    I would not wrap my garbage in it, it would taint the garbage.

  47. If Maiden is right the Government does not have the numbers on the crossbench or with the Greens. Desperation doomed to fail I would expect.

  48. SkyNewsAust: #BREAKING Independent senator Lucy Gichuhi will support the government’s Gonski 2.0 school funding package.

    Or else the government has the numbers without the Greens.

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