BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Very slight movement to Labor after a quiet week on the opinion poll front.

The only new poll this week was the usual weekly result from Essential Research, which causes the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to move slightly in favour of Labor. This includes a single gain on the seat aggregate, in this case from Victoria. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 36
1 2 3 4 … 36

  2. Doyley
    When I was young a regular item in the news coverage of Ireland was some guy shouting at the camera with a funny accent followed by a young woman speaking normally. Devlin and Paisley of course.Paisley was terribly funny to me. I did not understand what was going on in Ireland but his raving loon performances I found lol.

  3. Carl Bernstein shreds Trump hypocrisy: Trump’s ‘been a leaker for all of his professional life’

    President Donald Trump would like to call former FBI Director James Comey a “leaker.” However, veteran journalist Carl Bernstein thinks that if he’s going by that definition, Trump is the biggest leaker of them all.

    “He’s trying to discredit Comey, he’s trying to rouse his base as he did at the Faith Initiative Conference yesterday,” Bernstein said. “He’s somebody that’s worried about what’s down the road later rather than now.”

    “So he’s gone to the question, ‘Comey is a leaker,’ thinking that is going to discredit him, particularly with his own base, when in fact Donald Trump is a leaker,” Bernstein said. “He’s been a leaker for all of his professional life, he’s even leaked by falsely impersonating himself under another name. So this is a big game in which the president and the people around him know that he has been damaged, that these investigations are closing in on him and right now he wants to the weight of his followers behind him and he wants to keep them in place so Republicans on the Hill don’t abandon him.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/carl-bernstein-shreds-trump-hypocrisy-trumps-been-a-leaker-for-all-of-his-professional-life/

  4. I normally have issues with Poroti’s assessment of anything Russia-related, but I’m with him on the Russia-Trump links assessment.

    I’m quite happy to accept that Russia interfered in the 2016 election on the side of getting Trump elected – and as others have conceded it wouldn’t be the first time that foreign power election interference has been done (the US being a major player in doing this in various places at various times), nor will it be the last – the only real defence against this kind of thing is restoring confidence in independent democratic institutions, and improving the quality of debate/media coverage in our democracies.

    But Russia’s motivations in doing so would have been – as Clapper described during his visit – a desire primarily to sow chaos and weaken “The West”. Getting Trump over the line – to the extent that the Russians may have done by their activities, as opposed to the massive dysfunction at the heart of US politics – has certainly achieved that.

    Russia wouldn’t care in the slightest about any “ties” to Trump. Their purposes have been served. They’ll happily play along with any divisive Trump nonsense because it simply enhances the impact of his election on destabilizing American democracy and American influence on the World, but … actively planning/coordinating/conspiring with Trump proxies … meh, nothing has really been shown beyond some suspect financial relationships of some of the Trump crowd, and despite all the sound and fury I can’t see that going anywhere. The “pee tapes”/”kompromat” stuff just seems to be classic character assassination by making titillating “pervy sexy stuff” unsubstantiated/unsubstantiatable claims designed to play on his conservative base’s religious/morality judgement laundered through some secret squirrel spook stuff.

    Of course any Trump downfall always was going to be a political resolution (for practical and constitutional reasons), and perhaps part of the politics is just to throw so much “Russia” mud that some will stick. Personally that doesn’t work for me compared to all the other myriad reasons why Trump deserves to be removed for being … well, Trump … but I guess whatever works. Just don’t pretend that there’s anything going on other than an establishment inventing a political campaign to try to tear down a political problem. Dirty tricks – perhaps in a good cause this time – but still a bit of a travesty in the context of any democratic principles.

    And any sense that the real issue with Trump is that the system got him elected in the first place and what that says about how politics works – or rather doesn’t work in the slightest – is basically being ignored. No one is seriously talking about any of the practical aspects that make the American presidential election system so broken – where the money comes from, how the media works, vested interest lobbying, SuperPACs, how the parties are working, how the primaries are working, how the voting system is impacting on the process and what change might be desirable and how to get to the point of fixing these things or at least being open enough to talking about and trying different things. When presidents need to have access – either personally or via big donors or, most unusually, via grassroots – to literally hundreds of millions of dollars to successfully get elected. It’s broken from go to woah and the current debate seems totally shiny thing distracted by Trump.

    Trump will be gone soon enough – next year, or the year after, maybe (heaven forbid) 7 and a half years – but the totally screwed up system that put him there will still be in place and ready to elect the next dysfunctional destructive wealthy clown.

  5. I’ve only ever heard square as an old-fashioned synonym for lame, buttoned-down or close-minded. These days the kids would say ‘basic’ or ‘normie’.

  6. CTar1,

    Thanks for that.

    Yes, they were terrible times. Fault on all sides. Still, I was a strong supporter of the ” cause”. But then, I still think Ned Kelly was a freedom fighter ! ( smiley face).

    Last I heard of Bernadette was just after the assassination attempt on her at her home. Glad she is still going. She really had fire in the belly which I must admit did result in some not very productive outbursts. Despite that, I did and still do respect her passion and commitment greatly.

    Cheers.

  9. Poroti,

    I remember very well the nightly news reports on the ” troubles”. Paisley was a total outrage in my opinion but I was a bit biased. Bernadette , I must admit, could also go overboard at times but she just appealed to me. It was a time of great divide and sadly violence. Perhaps a divide that is still quietly bubbling along under the surface.

    Cheers.

  12. “Speaking of old enough to remember, am I the only one old enough to remember that gays were queer and straights were square.”

    No. I went through school in the “here lads, he’s walked in bums to the wall” era. Saddness looking back at the casual nastiness myself and others were capable of.

  13. “Victoria
    Saturday, June 10, 2017 at 9:47 am
    Imacca
    Put it this way, Comey so far has been playing Chess. Trump and his merry followers checkers.”

    As far I can tell the only thing Comey has been playing, is with his dick.

  14. Sohar
    Loved it 😆

    And the elders rose up and said to the young people, If ye choose Jeremy, he will bring distress in your toils and wailing upon your streets. Do ye not remember the nineteen-seventies?

    And the young people said, The what?

    And the young people said, Jeremy will bringeth………………And he showeth respect for all peoples, even unto the transgender community.

    And the elders said, The what?

  15. No. I went through school in the “here lads, he’s walked in bums to the wall” era

    Hence the nikname ‘Backster’ (Backs ta the walls). It got a mention in the Russell Crowe John Polson movie – The Sum of Us

  19. Australia’s ‘Captain Sensible’

    Am I the only one with mental images of Turnbull wearing one of his expensive suits but with his underpants on the outside?

  22. Business profits rising, household incomes falling —

    ‘Bureau of Statistics data show labour’s share of gross domestic product has fallen to 51.5%, down from 54.2% in the third quarter of last year. At the same time, the profit share of GDP has risen from 24.5% to a five-year high of 27.5%.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/10/households-share-of-national-economic-pie-nears-50-year-low?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=229945&subid=7542564&CMP=ema_632

  23. Jackol,
    I’d like to respond to your thoughtful, and I believe misguided, contribution, if I may. 🙂

    I normally have issues with Poroti’s assessment of anything Russia-related, but I’m with him on the Russia-Trump links assessment.

    Fine, but I think you’re falling into the trap of setting a very low bar for the Trump Gang. Almost as if you are saying, ‘Sure there have been demonstrated contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives, but what does that really prove without a smoking gun? Which we don’t have yet.
    Hmm.

    Can I just put it out there that people have been convicted of crimes on less circumstantial evidence than what we have already wrt the Trump campaign-Russia links.

    I’m quite happy to accept that Russia interfered in the 2016 election on the side of getting Trump elected – and as others have conceded it wouldn’t be the first time that foreign power election interference has been done (the US being a major player in doing this in various places at various times), nor will it be the last – the only real defence against this kind of thing is restoring confidence in independent democratic institutions, and improving the quality of debate/media coverage in our democracies.

    Um, that’s kind of the serious point that we’re debating here about Trump-Russia. That is, that if it will be demonstrably proven, as Comey suggests that it will be, that Russian State operatives hacked into the DNC database, John Podesta’s emails and the Voter Databases of multiple US States, don’t you think that is a prima facie case of attacking, and thus reducing confidence in going forward, our democratic institutions? If we can’t have confidence in those basic functions of a digitised facet of democracy, then what CAN we have confidence in?

    Also, I don’t buy the false equivalence argument you have put up of, well, America has done it to other countries…so that makes it okay by me that the Russians did it during the last Presidential election in America. I’m of the opinion that, and this may sound self-serving but I assure you it isn’t, that it’s two different things entirely for America to do it TO another country, usually a tin pot dictatorship client state, and the other political polar entity to America, Russia, doing it to the Nation State that titularly leads the Western World.

    Also the fact that for the Russians this is an ongoing strategic global destabilisation plan that they are trying to effect in order to increase their power. Therefore, we, as citizens of the democratic West, should be pushing back against it as hard as we can, and prosecuting the case against them using the tools we have at our disposal, even harder.

    Not just going, “Meh! Same, same’.

    But which thing you again put under the rubric of, ‘Meh!’ in the next paragraph! And I can’t understand why.

    I also find it particularly difficult to understand this attitude:

    meh, nothing has really been shown beyond some suspect financial relationships of some of the Trump crowd, and despite all the sound and fury I can’t see that going anywhere.

    You are not fussed about global kleptocracy occurring right underneath our noses!?!

    Of course we should be up in arms about it! And those who are busily perpetrating these crimes against the vast majority of humanity.

    And any sense that the real issue with Trump is that the system got him elected in the first place and what that says about how politics works – or rather doesn’t work in the slightest – is basically being ignored.

    No it’s not.

    e American presidential election system so broken – where the money comes from, how the media works, vested interest lobbying, SuperPACs, how the parties are working, how the primaries are working, how the voting system is impacting on the process and what change might be desirable and how to get to the point of fixing these things or at least being open enough to talking about and trying different things.

    You may have missed it, but the other week I highlighted a case that had been brought against gerrymandering of districts in the US, in North Carolina I think it was, and I said that this is exactly what was needed to begin the process of righting the wrongs of the American electoral system and that now that that case had finally been won it would open the gates for many more cases to come which might eventually see this most odious of practices eliminated. No, it’s not happening overnight to the satisfaction of all concerned, but it is happening.

    Plus, I would simply add that a perusal of any day’s Dawn Patrol would see articles aplenty that highlight the things that you are saying aren’t being highlighted by the media.

    When presidents need to have access – either personally or via big donors or, most unusually, via grassroots – to literally hundreds of millions of dollars to successfully get elected. It’s broken from go to woah and the current debate seems totally shiny thing distracted by Trump.

    Which leads me to point out to you that the best way to do something about all of this is to get rid of the Repugs from control of Congress…which starts with reform of the gerrymander and Redistricting rules.

    Trump will be gone soon enough – next year, or the year after, maybe (heaven forbid) 7 and a half years – but the totally screwed up system that put him there will still be in place and ready to elect the next dysfunctional destructive wealthy clown.

    You seem to have missed the last 8 years of President Obama. Who is the antithesis of a ‘dysfunctional, destructive wealthy clown’.

    Sorry, but I’m not trying to take the piss out of your comment, but I am simply trying to point out that, by taking the position that you have, you are actually supporting the Trump Train and all who ride aboard it.

    Far better to keep the faith, I think, and work slowly but surely towards their political destruction. To do otherwise simply aids and abets their cause, because if you give up fighting them with a, ‘Meh!’ and a shrug of the shoulders, they win.

  25. I am awaiting analysis of voting in Scotland to see how many seats were won by the Tories with SLab support.
    The demented souls running SLab may have cost Jeremy Corbyn government.

  29. Judith Ireland has a piece in The Age today, praising the whacky theatrics of U.K. politics singling out the guy who wore an Elmo suit and ran in There Mays electorate. I think she wouldn’t be so charmed by him if she knew he was an incredibly creepy men’s rights activist. Clearly Lord Buckethead was the superior stunt candidate in that particular election race.

  31. So, is the Lib backbench going to kill Finkel’s report (or require ridiculous fudges)? And if Malcolm can’t even get his team to rally around his own Chief Scientist on something as important as our energy future, surely it’s the end for him (and the libs).

  32. Catmomma –

    Can I just put it out there that people have been convicted of crimes on less circumstantial evidence than what we have already wrt the Trump campaign-Russia links.

    Who are we talking about with “people” here? Be specific if you’re going to make this claim. And “convicted” is meaningless in the Trump context as I’ve pointed out above and before because he’s not being assessed by any judicial system, he’s being assessed by the political system in a political way. I repeat he is not going to be undone by any court, he will be undone by politics.

    Um, that’s kind of the serious point that we’re debating here about Trump-Russia. That is, that if it will be demonstrably proven, as Comey suggests that it will be, that Russian State operatives hacked

    No, it’s not the serious point at all. The discussion that gets put up on PB, sourced from various places, is all about how bad Trump is, and (largely) about how his supposed links to Russia can/should be used to remove Trump. That (as I’ve explained) is the wrong end of the stick IMO. Get rid of Trump for all the good reasons to get rid of Trump. Shore up democratic institutions to mitigate interference from Russia or other actors because that’s a good thing to do. Conflating the two is … distraction IMO and does nothing about the systemic problems.

    I’m not sanguine about that interference. The USA, and Australia, and everywhere else needs to be inoculated as much as possible against this kind of stuff, but wagging a finger at Russia (or anyone else) is not going to achieve anything. The only sensible prevention is to shore up the institutions and processes involved such that when Russia, or China, or anyone else tries to insert propaganda into elections that the public can assess the various claims in as informed a way as possible. I acknowledge it’s kind of a weak response but nothing else makes any sense to me. Democracy such as we know it depends on relying on the voting public to be responsible for their decisions. We can’t enforce any sense that certain voters are properly informed and have done appropriate due diligence and other voters are not. We can’t assess whether voters are voting for the ‘right’ reasons or not – they vote and we accept the result. The only thing we can do systemically, without calling the whole democracy thing into question, is try to ensure that the environment that the voters operate in is as fair and free and robust as we can make it.

    You are not fussed about global kleptocracy occurring right underneath our noses!?!

    Because nothing has been proven, and many many people have been working very hard to try to make out that something has been proven. I’m not talking presumption of innocence, criminal trial beyond-reasonable-doubt, I’m simply talking about any real evidence. Everything about Trump and his cronies offends my sensibilities. But nothing that has been presented here or anywhere else has made the case as far as I’m concerned that there is some conspiracy between the Trump crowd and Russia.

    You may have missed it, but the other week I highlighted a case that had been brought against gerrymandering of districts in the US, in North Carolina I think it was, and I said that this is exactly what was needed to begin the process of righting the wrongs of the American electoral system and that now that that case had finally been won it would open the gates for many more cases to come

    This is cosmetic. The courts can’t solve the problems because the problems stem from fundamental structural issues that need to be solved by Americans using constitutional reform, and there is no serious debate about that at all.

    They need an AEC equivalent to set electoral boundaries and oversee elections with a charter and a mandate for enfranchisement. That will require constitutional change to facilitate – relying on the States to hobble their own powers to meddle in this is just not going to work. And that’s just the beginning. Single member districts. FPTP. Corporate right to free speech. These things will also probably need constitutional change to correct in any meaningful way. No one is seriously debating this, it’s all just outrage at Trump, outrage at Congress. Striking blows against Trump or Congress don’t fix the system.

    Plus, I would simply add that a perusal of any day’s Dawn Patrol would see articles aplenty that highlight the things that you are saying aren’t being highlighted by the media.

    Ok, link some from today’s dawn patrol, or any in the last week to prove your point. It’s not true.

    You seem to have missed the last 8 years of President Obama. Who is the antithesis of a ‘dysfunctional, destructive wealthy clown’.

    And before Obama was George W Bush.

    Obama was no George W or Trump, but he was no great statesman either. If Obama is the very best that the American system can produce then that is a damning assessment as well. Obama is an infinitely better individual than Trump is, but he was, at best, a mediocre president with limited achievements. And to the extent that Congress can be blamed for his lack of achievement – remembering that he had a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress to begin with – that only punctuates how broken the system is from top to bottom.

    you are actually supporting the Trump Train

    The biggest point I was making, which you have completely discounted/missed, is that focusing on Trump is a distraction. Focus on the system not the symptom. Despite your assertions – without backing evidence – almost no one is. It’s Trump Trump Trump. That may make you feel good to rail at constantly, but that lightning rod focus on Trump is doing nothing to solve the systemic problems.

    because if you give up fighting them with a, ‘Meh!’ and a shrug of the shoulders, they win.

    Fighting Trump serves no long term purpose. I’m arguing that people of conviction should be fighting to change the systems to prevent a future Trump.

  33. This looks a good series on the ABC. First up Alexei Sayle and John Clarke together at a pub discuss careers..

    ABC’s Meet the Mavericks

    Gonzales stages encounters between cultural dissidents of one kind or another, often in bizarre but usually picturesque locations.

    They quiz, test and sometimes interrogate each other about their careers, giving some insight into the minds of the people who challenge and shape the way we think about ourselves.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/arts/review/abcs-meet-the-mavericks-alexei-sayle-and-john-clarke/news-story/24c829e610dc1a4027b178abdc6f6858

  34. Mark Butler today:

    ‘MARK BUTLER MP, SHADOW CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY MINISTER, MEMBER FOR PORT ADELAIDE: Thanks for coming out this morning. Federal Labor is very heartened by the initial responses to the Finkel Review. Particularly, from the state governments yesterday, both Liberal and Labor alike, but also from the business community, the electricity industry and a range of other stakeholders. We have a very serious energy crisis confronting this country, wholesale power prices have doubled under this government and it is starting to feed into consumer bills. We are seeing increases of 30 per cent across most of the states, hitting households, small business and also big business.

    We are very concerned at the uprising within the Coalition around the definition of clean energy. We’ve seen it from the former Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, the existing Deputy Prime Minister, Barnaby Joyce, and now also the Chair of the Coalition’s climate change and energy policy committee, Craig Kelly. They are trying to rig the definition of clean energy to accommodate new coal-fired power. You simply can’t rig the definition of clean energy to bring in coal-fired power, it is a nonsense and if that is the basis on which Malcolm Turnbull wants to start negotiations with other parties, including Federal Labor, then negotiations are not going to go very far.’

  35. Jackol

    And why are you ruling out walking and chewing gum? Surely it isn’t impossible to rail against Trump AND tackle the systemic problems? Not tackling Trump will, indeed, see the systemic problems strengthened.

  36. Zoomster – because politics.

    There is a certain amount of attention, a certain very narrow bandwidth, that public debates here and in America have. If you want to effect change, particularly constitutional change, then you need to grab the public attention and focus it in a concentrated way to achieve a very limited set of goals. This is not about a government tackling multiple issues at once, this is about the ability to get the public onboard for change. Focus on the wrong thing, diffuse the message, and nothing happens. You can’t build momentum for one thing while you are focused on something else.

    Because politics.

  37. However, she dismissed the idea, popularised by Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk, that mankind should be preparing to colonise other planets to avoid self-annihilation. “I don’t see a mass transfer of humanity to Mars, ever,” she said, adding that she had been concerned recently when a teacher told her that her pupils thought the climate “doesn’t matter as we’ll all go and live on Mars”.

    “Job one is to keep this planet habitable. I’d hate us to lose focus on that,” she said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jun/08/americans-under-siege-from-climate-disinformation-former-nasa-chief-scientist?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=229945&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632

  39. Lizzie –

    However, she dismissed the idea, popularised by Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk, that mankind should be preparing to colonise other planets to avoid self-annihilation. “I don’t see a mass transfer of humanity to Mars, ever,” she said

    Heh. I’m sure Stofan is well aware of the straw man she is describing, because it could well describe a publicly held misunderstanding of what Hawking or Musk are really saying.

    I’m sure Hawking and Musk are well aware that ‘mass transfer’ is simply not on the cards – they weren’t talking about saving lots of individuals, they were talking about saving the species from extinction by putting backup genetic reserves off-planet.

  40. Barney IGD – Sorry, it was Backdown Barney I was making mention of – our erstwhile DP while Trumble is rumbling overseas.

  41. zoomster @ #134 Saturday, June 10, 2017 at 1:46 pm

    They are trying to rig the definition of clean energy to accommodate new coal-fired power. You simply can’t rig the definition of clean energy to bring in coal-fired power, it is a nonsense and if that is the basis on which Malcolm Turnbull wants to start negotiations with other parties, including Federal Labor, then negotiations are not going to go very far.’

    Labor sees through Finkel’s nonsense. Good.

  45. Special Counsel Robert Mueller brings in attorney who’s an expert on obstruction of justice
    By Bill Palmer

    Thursday, former FBI Director James Comey testified under oath about a number of instances in which Donald Trump committed obstruction of justice by trying to meddle in the FBI’s investigation into his campaign. Today, Special Counsel Robert Mueller announced that he’s hiring one of the world’s foremost legal experts on obstruction of justice.

    Mueller has hired Michael Dreeben, who will be leaving his role as deputy solicitor general at the Department of Justice to join the Special Counsel team, according to National Law Journal . The timing and nature of this move can’t be seen as a coincidence. This makes fairly clear that, as Comey twice suggested during his testimony, Mueller is in fact targeting Trump for obstruction of justice as we speak. And yesterday appears to have motivated Mueller to push further in that regard. It’s also far from the first high profile hire which Mueller has made in the past week.

    Last weekend it was revealed that Robert Mueller had hired James Quarles, who had been part of the Watergate Special Prosecution Force that played a role in taking down Richard Nixon (link). This all points to Mueller using his free reign and unlimited war chest to build an all star team aimed at going after Donald Trump in the fiercest way possible. And the Special Counsel is not the only one pursuing obstruction of justice against Trump at this point.

    Earlier today, Senate Judiciary Committee chair Chuck Grassley stated that he was willing to pursue an investigation into Donald Trump’s obstruction of justice if his Democratic counterpart on the committee, Dianne Feinstein, was also willing. That prompted Feinstein to immediately and formally take him up on the matter . So at this point both the Special Counsel and the Senate are pursuing Trump for obstruction of justice.

  47. Reuters on a subject they know about:

    Global economy weekahead: French reform, British uproar and a Fed hike

    French elections, May crashing and burning and Mad Trump in the US, and …

    As for the Fed, its rate rise is pretty much expected, although recent weaker inflation data has added a bit of a question mark to what may come next.

    There are also some expectations that the Fed may announce how it will reduce its balance sheet — all those things it has bought during periods of stimulus — as it seeks to normalize policy nearly a decade after the global financial crisis began.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-weekahead-idUSKBN1901ZK

    Things are rosy.

  49. PhRD

    Earlier today, Senate Judiciary Committee chair Chuck Grassley stated that he was willing to pursue an investigation into Donald Trump’s obstruction of justice …

    Grassley is a Republican …

    Save your ar#e time?

Comments Page 3 of 36
1 2 3 4 … 36

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *