BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Very slight movement to Labor after a quiet week on the opinion poll front.

The only new poll this week was the usual weekly result from Essential Research, which causes the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to move slightly in favour of Labor. This includes a single gain on the seat aggregate, in this case from Victoria. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 36
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  1. “Imacca
    nah. I reckon the deeds in this instance are pretty awful.”
    I suspect you are largely correct Vic.
    Russia very much seems to have tried to influence the election. Just that SHOULD have pushed all kinds of buttons for the Americans and have them feral i’d think?? McCarthy must be spinning in his grave at how some of this has been de-emphasised.
    The links to the actual Trump campaign and its people are at best a bit less clear. They may well be (as Comey seems to have said) not what has been reported….to date….
    But Comey has been very careful with language. I don’t think his testimony to date rules out the Trump / Russia links. this has a long way to run as the special prosecutor process plays out and there will be surprises along the way.
    If Trump doesn’t do some kind of deal and step down, or simply self destruct.
    Absolute worst outcome is if the bastard pops his clogs (i reckon he has health issues) while this is going on and becomes a martyr to the RWNJ set.

  2. I wonder if the Europeans will now cause Theresa a lot of trouble in the Brexit negotiations and force regime change? They’ve got form in that area. After all, look what happened to Greece!

  3. How can a dystopian future ruled by a fundamentalist regime that treats women as property get more terrifying? Hulu’s latest series “The Handmaid’s Tale” meets the only thing that could make it even scarier, President Donald Trump.:

    https://youtu.be/zTBfPpVblwI

  4. Imacca

    Put it this way, Comey so far has been playing Chess. Trump and his merry followers checkers.
    Interfering in elections in of itself is something that has been happening for ages and many players engage in this.
    What happened this time around was a very different beast.
    The foreign players were allowed to infiltrate the halls of power, and as far as I can see, they are continuing to be allowed to do so. This is serious shit, despite the dismissive attitude of some

  5. I think the promised $60 saving in electricity is great. I intend to add this to the $550 Tony Abbott promised to send, not to mention the amount I have saved now that lamb roasts are not $100 that Barney thought we would have to pay with a CT.

  6. In regards to Comey’s testimony, I think many are forgetting that it wasn’t what we saw.

    His full testimony would have been at 1.00pm, when he came back behind closed doors.

    The Public hearing was just getting the ducks in line.

  7. Good morning all,

    I posted soon after PM May announced the election that she would romp in and labour would be decimated under Corbyn because voters would not embrace his vision and policy manifesto.

    Well, I am here today to admit how very wrong I was. Congratulations to Corbyn and labour and if/ when the May coalition collapses labour may well be the new party of government in the UK. Well done.

    Cheers and a great day to all.

  8. Absolute worst outcome is if the bastard pops his clogs (i reckon he has health issues) while this is going on and becomes a martyr to the RWNJ set.

    Just like that other demented President, Reagan.

  9. tricot @ #55 Saturday, June 10, 2017 at 9:47 am

    I think the promised $60 saving in electricity is great. I intend to add this to the $550 Tony Abbott promised to send, not to mention the amount I have saved now that lamb roasts are not $100 that Barney thought we would have to pay with a CT.

    I said no such thing! 🙂

  10. “Just like that other demented President, Reagan.”
    You mean Ronald? Shining light of rationality, good governance and sound strategic thinking…..compared to Trump?

  11. Doyley – even better, it looks like the Tory press is broken. Supposedly, after the exit poll came out, Murdoch left a post election party at the Times in a huge huff

  12. By concentrating on the savings in power prices as being the main game with the Finkle review the MSM are not doing Turnbull much of a favour at all. The same bullshit coming from the government is only making things worse.

    It is the lived experience that counts and politicians mouthing off about electricity prices going down is only making Australians more angry and more convinced pollies gave no idea or grip on the real world.

    Cheers.

  13. Imacca

    I should add that in order to prepare the public that are on board the Trump train to perhaps question their loyalty to him, this whole process has to take place in a calm and orderly way. Otherwise it will be perceived as a coup against the President.
    The institutions are there to serve as checks and balances, and whilst it seems to be wasting a lot of time and energy, there really is no other proper way to do it.

  14. May’s new allies in the UK parliament:

    The DUP are pro-union (not Europe but UK), pro-Brexit and socially conservative.
    The party, which returned 10 MPs to Westminster, has garnered a reputation for its strong, sometimes controversial views.

    It opposes same-sex marriage and is anti-abortion – abortion remains illegal in Northern Ireland, except in specific medical cases.

    One MP is a devout climate change denier, while a former MP once called for creationism – the belief that human life did not evolve over millions of years but was created by God – to be taught alongside evolution in science classes.

    During the election campaign, the DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly was endorsed by the three biggest loyalist paramilitary organisations.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40219030

  16. citizen @ #64 Saturday, June 10, 2017 at 9:58 am

    May’s new allies in the UK parliament:

    The DUP are pro-union (not Europe but UK), pro-Brexit and socially conservative.
    The party, which returned 10 MPs to Westminster, has garnered a reputation for its strong, sometimes controversial views.
    It opposes same-sex marriage and is anti-abortion – abortion remains illegal in Northern Ireland, except in specific medical cases.
    One MP is a devout climate change denier, while a former MP once called for creationism – the belief that human life did not evolve over millions of years but was created by God – to be taught alongside evolution in science classes.
    During the election campaign, the DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly was endorsed by the three biggest loyalist paramilitary organisations.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40219030

    I blame the Catholic Church and its moral decline in Ireland.

    If they had held sway these idiots would have been bred into minority in the north.

    But then we’d be faced with another group of religious nutters.

    No win! 🙁

  17. Donald Trump says Comey’s testimony yesterday showed ‘no collusion or corruption’.

    IIRC Comey declined to offer an opinion on this as he did not now know what had been found by the investigation since he was sacked.

  18. CTar1

    Trump actually admitted in a televised interview after the sacking of Comey, that he did so because of the Russian investigation.
    Trump is beyond ridiculous. For goodness sake, I recall Obama being maligned for wearing a tan suit!!!!

  20. Fess

    Yes and no.

    There are RICO state cases currently under way. So the state may get Trump on racketeering stuff. Think of how they ultimately got Capone.

  21. For goodness sake, I recall Obama being maligned for wearing a tan suit!!!!

    And taking his suit jacket off inside the oval office AND rolling up his shirt sleeves. The Repugs went into melt down over that, yet have nothing to say about reps of the Russian govt and media being allowed inside the president’s office.

  25. It is the lived experience that counts and politicians mouthing off about electricity prices going down is only making Australians more angry and more convinced pollies gave no idea or grip on the real world.

    Yeah. Nah. Last week I may have believed this, however, since the latest Essential came out with the results of a question asking about just that thing and a large majority of respondents said that power prices going down was very important to them, I’m no longer so sure.

  31. I give Mays unstable Tory / DUP coalition 12 months before a new election is called.

    Notice on some news coverage that the British media are referring to it as ‘gay marriage’ again now not ‘marriage equality’. How quickly we seem to lose what we’ve gained.

  32. I just had a look at who the Democratic Unionist Party are on Wikipedia. A bunch of RWNJ’s that PHON, the right of the L/NP and the right of the US Republicans are perfectly at home with.

    The UK conservatives are planning minority government with them. What could possibly go wrong?

  33. lizzie @ #8 Saturday, June 10, 2017 at 7:07 am

    Australian households would save about $90 a year, or up to $1000 on their electricity bills over a decade

    Save $90 a year on electricity? Big hairy deal.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/finkel-review-households-could-save-up-to-1000-over-a-decade-under-clean-energy-target-20170609-gwnz0g.html

    Indeed. I’ve not read any analysis of Finkel yet this morning, but I’ve been thinking about the report overnight, and I have come to the conclusion that this report is a total piece of tripe.

    There is no doubt when you look at figures 3.5 – 3.8, that the modelling done for this report is designed to minimize the price difference between the various scenarios, and maximize the lifetime of coal. To come up with modelling that shows an EIS results in the more coal being burned in 2070 than the “do nothing” scenario requires a truly astonishing feat of intellectual gymnastics.

    The quantitative modelling in the report shows Finkel has assigned an emissions threshold – but he just doesn’t feel inclined to tell you what it is. I think this is because the selected threshold has been set so high as to perpetuate – even encourage – the use of coal compared to the “do nothing” scenario.

    The ALP needs to call this rubbish out for what it is.

  34. Have a good day guys, I’m off to get some Gay Breakfast from the Gay 7/11 down the road, but if I recall correctly there’s a Gay Thai place right next door, so maybe I’ll get a Gay Pork Roll instead, then I have to go town to try and by some new Gay shoes as my current pair are starting to fall to bits.

    Why am I qualifying everything with the word ‘gay’? I must be ill or something. I suppose it is a pretty strange thing to do when all of the things which I just mentioned are available to both gay and straight people.

  35. Cat,

    Re the Essential questions.

    I think we need to be careful with seeking to extract too much out of that particular polling and question result. Remember, it was a very good result in PV for the government, a result that appears to have been on the up up side for them. That may well have played into the responses given the possibility of a more than usual pro conservative polling cohort for that week.

    We need wait to see if that particular week was a fair result or if it washes through as a pro conservative ” oncer”. It has happened before.

    Anyway, we shall see.

    Cheers.

  36. Can’t believe that May will team up with the extreme R/Wingnuts of the DUP ..a party supported by THREE proscribed terrorist groups!! ..but then, I remember she’s a Tory!!

    ..this won’t end well, for May ..or the country!!

  37. Victoria / ‘fess

    the state may get Trump on racketeering stuff.

    IIRC any thing on this put forward to a court will be ‘sealed’ and not able to be advanced while he is president.

  39. Grimace

    A bunch of RWNJ’s

    On the DUP, you are to young to recall the founder of the party – a raving lunatic responsible for much of the violence in Northern Ireland.

  40. Imacca
    Russia very much seems to have tried to influence the election

    Comey said repeatedly he had no doubt, no doubt, and once more with feeling, no doubt, Russia tried to influence the election.

    “There should be no fuzz on this whatsoever. The Russians interfered in our election during the 2016 cycle.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfvzxuCrJWQ

    (Jump to 6:00 if Colbert averse)

  41. Do you think May will hang around like a lame-duck because no-one will want the job of trying to make this coalition work? Will May wait for the first sign of disunity and call another election, or is it going to take a couple of months of infighting before a new leader challenges her then sends the UK back to the polls in search of their own mandate? Some other scenario? Personally I think the latter example is the most likely scenario.

    In other words, I imagine her enemies are going to slowly sow the seeds of disunity, launch a whisper campaign for support when a leadership challenge comes, wait for Tory / DUP conflict, blame May for being unable to command sufficient authority to hold the coalition together, challenge, win the challenge and send the UK back to the polls in search of new mandate. They’ll focus on ‘new leadership’ in the next election campaign, a clever way of putting the blame for 2017 soley on the shoulders of May and her bad campaigning and ignoring all the other factors at play. That would be textbook conservative politics.

  42. On the ACL website Lyle Shelton is trying to resuscitate the marriage referendum, while accusing all and sundry of viciously attacking Margaret Court. He is presumably still hankering for his $15 million to pursue the ‘no’ case.

  44. CTar1,

    Do you know what happened to Bernadette Devlin ? I must admit at the time and as a supporter of the Catholic ” cause” I was a big supporter.

    Cheers

  46. BC
    … both gay and straight people.

    Speaking of old enough to remember, am I the only one old enough to remember that gays were queer and straights were square.

    Thought so.

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