BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Very slight movement to Labor after a quiet week on the opinion poll front.

The only new poll this week was the usual weekly result from Essential Research, which causes the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to move slightly in favour of Labor. This includes a single gain on the seat aggregate, in this case from Victoria. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  1. Barney that is a novel use of mainstream.
    So some members of the hierarchy covered up crimes.
    I would think mainstream, in the case of religion, means not being on the extremes say ultra conservative nor radical but in the main stream of adherents. Middle of the road.
    IS etc are certainly not mainstream in islam. So of course they do not get support from the main stream. So that is not saying much.

    But i enjoy liberals on this topic (islamic terrorism) so much. They get tied in knots with their silly analogies, lack of logic and inconsistencies.

  2. Mal the Still Magnificent will make a craven ‘compromise’ on Finkel that even the loonies in his party will accept, and the CPG will, as one, hail it as a masterstroke.

    The ALP will understandably reject this, and be accused of rejecting bipartisanship and threatening Australia’s energy security (code for coal and lots of it) and raising power prices.

    You know it makes sense.

    Oh absolutely. But this time industry will be pissed.

  3. If a certain technology can’t do the job

    But what is “the job” P1? Is it to have a “pure” energy market where in reality there is no such thing, or is it to cut CO2 emissions as rapidly as possible – an outcome you apparently support?

    What you’re actually doing is saying lets cut CO2 emissions, but not if it costs more to do so (this is within the context of your own broken assumptions I should add).

    So, if going directly to renewables costs more (your broken assumption, not actual reality) but (obviously) reduces CO2 faster, and gas costs less but doesn’t reduce CO2 as fast, what’s it gonna be, eh boy?

  4. B.C
    The video is interesting and makes some good points, but I don’t know where he gets some of his figures from.

    For instance, a high speed train consumes about 7MW when accelerating but in typical use might average 2MW. To cover 100Km, that train consumes 571KWhr.

    That train might carry 600 people (or in Japan more like 1200). Divide 571 by 600 and you get less than 1KWhr per person-100Km.

    The video quotes 3-6KWhr per person-100Km. So its off by a factor of 10. I don’t have the precise figures for typical metros but they’d have to run pretty empty to come near that figure.

    Also, he quotes 5W/sqm for solar. PV. That might be true in high latitudes, but its more 25W/sqm here (accounting for capacity factor, shading etc.)

  5. Oh and the other thing from that video that is glaring by its absence is this.
    He talks about energy consumption being divided into third.
    One third electricity
    One third transport
    One third food production

    But at the end of the talk when he talks about demand side, he totally ignores food production and of course he ignores the amount of land and energy that goes into meat production. If he wants an adult conversation he needs to bring that issue in.

  6. “The British election just keeps on giving!

    Sinn Fein have always made use of offices in Westminster where they act as a lobby group. They do not however take their seats. This article is quite deceptive.

    Corbyn has ruled out any kind of deal with Sinn Fein, which is wise as he has already been dogged by his mountain out of a molehill association with the IRA during the election campaign. Sinn Fein has deep ties to the IRA and is essentially inseparable from them in the eyes of the British public. I suppose that Sinn Fein could, out of spite, vote with Labor and the SNP on some piece of legislation or another and then a no confidence motion could be moved against the Tories by one group or another and that could lead to a new snap election, but it’s a long bow and I don’t think Sinn Fein would backflip on 100 years of tradition and all their anti-monarchist ideals in order to do so.


    No UK government has previously been dependent on the DUP. This is not like when the less extreme UUP were propping up Major in the later years of his term. That was before the Good Friday Peace was set up as well. The threat of the DUP tail wagging the Tory dog on Northern Ireland issues is a serious incentive to Sinn Fein to turn up and take their seats. If the Tories loose 4 or more seats in the House of Commons, then the Tory-DUP joint majority is propped up by Sinn Fien absentionism. The SDLP would then be able to blame them at the next election and take seats. Sinn Fien has also abandoned abstentionism in the Irish Parliament and the Northern Ireland Assembly in recent decades.

  8. Yeah, I’m not sure how practical it is. I’d hate to think about the wear on that o-ring. I’m don’t think it’s as simple as he makes out either, once you consider the geophysics. Of course, you could just go and build one above or in the ground, using concrete, steel and sand.
    That wasn’t the only TED talk I came across on alternate energy storage solutions. Here’s Danielle Fong on her compressed air storage solution:

  9. This is the sort of scare-mongering pro-Tory nonsense you can expect from The Sun. If Sinn Fein takes their seats and pledges allegiance to the Queen, which is every MP’s requirement to sit in the House of Commons, I’ll eat my hat. It won’t happen and can’t happen and it would be bad for everyone, Sinn Fein, the SNP and Labour included, if it did happen. This article is all about whipping up anxiety about the leftie menace lurking in the shadows. Nothing more.

    Let’s look at the scenario play out shall we:

    Labour: Seen to be in Support of Sinn Fein / The IRA, loses support at a time when they’ve just hard won the respect of a lot of voters

    SNP: As above, except they are even less likely to get in bed with Sinn Fein / The IRA given how they were punished at the election and how tenuous their grasp on their base is right now

    Sinn Fein: Betrays 100 years of party tradition and core values, essentially killing the party

    Tories and DUP: Seen to be involved with a much more stable coalition, both win support

    Liberal Democrats: Bystanders, could go either way

    I can see why the Sun would like to hope, wish and pray this into happening, but it isn’t happening and with good cause.

  10. Nevertheless Tom, the article is a nothing story. Sinn Fein have always made use of their offices in Westminster amongst other perks they get from being elected, without actually taking their seats.

  11. This is also dependent on the predication ‘if the Tories lose 4 seats’. I accept that’s a possibility and could happen over the next couple of years, but I don’t think it will happen before some other disaster spells the end of Mays government.

  12. On the other subject, Coal-ition Leadershit I am hoping someone publishes the betting board again tomorrow. I think Abbott will challenge within a month if derision continues to mount over Climate Change policy within the Coal-ition.

  13. The start of the headline was certainly nasty right-wing propaganda, disguised as comment on the effect on the potential effect on the longevity of the government.

    Sinn Fein, if they were to take their seats, could take the position of having no confidence in any British Government to rule over Northern Ireland and after voting no confidence in May (or her replacement), vote no confidence when Corbyn is given a shot. Then unless either the Tories or the DUP (and the SNP, Plaid Cymru, and the LibDems) support confidence in Corbyn, there has to be a new election.

    A marginal seat MP is facing charges that could cost him seat.

    It is entirely possible that there could be 3-by-election looses before the Government falls.

    The DUP position of influence over the Government, if used in a way that upsets Nationalist voters in Northern Ireland, could easily create political pressure from the nationalist voters of Northern Ireland who elected the Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats.

  14. Douglas & Milko,
    It sounds like Hilo hasn’t changed much since we visited five years ago – which is probably a good thing… The tourists generally stay in Kailua-Kona on the other side of the island. (We stayed in Volcano village.)

    If you get the chance, be sure to visit Hawai`i Volcanoes NP – it’s only an hour up the road from Hilo.

  15. Hello all,
    I am the resident lurker. I usually read most of this blog. Usually.
    For months this same arguement has been going on between P1 & those who engage with him.
    I’m fed up. It goes round & round in circles.

    Everybody go & buy 5kw of panels & 500ah of Lithium ion batteries like I did.
    No one argues with me about it any more.

  16. Latest YouGov info on voter turnout in the UK election (their estimates)

    Youth turnout nowhere near as high as had been suggested:-

    turnout estimates by age group:

    18-19: 57%
    20-24: 59%
    25-29: 64%
    30-39: 61%
    40-49: 66%
    50-59: 71%
    60-69: 77%
    70+ : 84%

  17. However you cut the cake; that little immigrant from England; Mr Abbott; has done enormous damage to Australia. I wonder if you could deport him?

  18. Son Of Sam I Am
    Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 11:37 pm
    Can the rest of you stop feeding the P1 troll – fuck off to an energy blog where some posters actually know what they are talking about and stick to the polls

    Mate like it or not it is going to be the central political issue for months to come.

  19. ABC Breakfast/AM has now had two days of discussions about major Climate Change/Energy policy which has national significance ..without a SINGLE interview with a Labor MP/Senator..

    ..ABC bias? ..what ABC bias?!!

  20. From last night …

    son of sam i am @ #1747 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 11:37 pm

    Can the rest of you stop feeding the P1 troll – fuck off to an energy blog where some posters actually know what they are talking about and stick to the polls

    The Finkel report was discussed in cabinet yesterday, is the biggest political news of the past week, and could lead to a split in the LNP. And not only do you not see the relevance of it, you also contribute nothing to the conversation except insults.

    Hmmm. Which of us is a troll, I wonder?

  21. cud chewer @ #1755 Wednesday, June 14, 2017 at 12:26 am

    What you’re actually doing is saying lets cut CO2 emissions, but not if it costs more to do so (this is within the context of your own broken assumptions I should add).

    Another misrepresentation, CC? You really do have a fertile imagination – shame you can’t seem to use it for something useful.

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