Very slight movement to Labor after a quiet week on the opinion poll front.
The only new poll this week was the usual weekly result from Essential Research, which causes the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to move slightly in favour of Labor. This includes a single gain on the seat aggregate, in this case from Victoria. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
player one @ #1681 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 8:36 pm
For someone who is now claiming to put less emphasis on economic cost, you sure do spend a lot of time concerning yourself with the percieved cost of renewables.
pegasus @ #1690 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 9:07 pm
We don’t need an enquiry. We just need to get the solicitor general and whoever is responsible for producing legislation to come up with a constitutionally valid and practical way of banning foreign donations to our political parties.
a r @ #1692 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 9:09 pm
If a certain technology can’t do the job, it won’t get used. There is no need to rule it out.
Perhaps, as Zoomster suggested, we should use another term. How about ‘technology neutral’?
Pegasus,
Thanks for that link.
On the 6 th June Bill Shorten wrote to Turnbull calling for his support for a urgent enquiry by the very same joint committee into donations. Anthony Byrne is just confirming the commitement already made by Shorten.
The donations were declared so the question now arises as to how closely the recipients of any donation must dig into those who donate.
It is time for this to happen and I hope Shorten gets on the front foot tomorrow to take the lead. If anything, it may make a few liberals and nationals jumpy as well.
Cheers.
The Trump agenda.
Confessions
Not Trump’s fault, That sort of shite has been SOP for years.
player one @ #1699 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 9:20 pm
I’ve declared my vested interest in the area on several occasions P1, would you like me to do it again?
My interest is in rapid decarbonisation of our electricity grid. And by rapid I mean as soon as is technically feasible. Which is now. No stopgap measures. No transition to gas plants with an economic life of 40 odd years. Just an orderly 10-year transition from what we have now, to a carbon-free grid.
A very good start would be an immediate plan to close any coal power plant which is currently past the end of its economic life and replacement with distributed wind, solar and battery.
Poroti:
It isn’t Trump’s fault but her father campaigned for returning manufacturing jobs to the US. It’s not a good look for his daughter’s company, and begs the question that perhaps his family needs to put their money where their father’s mouth is.
So how does —
‘In the United States, voters under 30 preferred Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump by a landslide margin..’
So the Democrats were already resonating with young people. And they may well have been resonating with young people because they weren’t being populist.
Too many of these election analyses sound like the writer worked out their contention years ago and is now trying to squish the facts around to make them fit.
grimace @ #1701 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 9:24 pm
It is not me who continually tries to reduce the arguments to one of cost, it is the solar warriors. They continually claim renewables plus storage are already cheaper, but when you point out that this means they would do really well if we removed the existing subsidies and instead introduced a ‘technology neutral’ EIS, they squeal like stuck pigs.
player one @ #1699 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 9:20 pm
And I really do wish you would stop with your tiresome assertion that I am happy to emit more CO2 based on your preconceived notions of my preferred path to decarbonisation.
poroti @ #1652 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 7:48 pm
My recollection is that the Keating quote was about John Hewson.
Alias
Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 8:46 pm
Meanwhile in London, Theresa May’s new Environment Minister Michael Gove is talking commonsense on this topic.
“I think that we need international cooperation in order to deal with climate change. The only way in which you can deal with this challenge, the only way in which we can enhance the environment to pass on to our children in a better state is by working across borders.”
Gove will turn this around. He will point out that since the US has withdrawn from Paris, the conditions for international cooperation do not exist and therefore the UK should revoke its policies.
Murdoch – Gove is his emissary – will wreck everything as usual.
Another thing with the political donations, we need to dispense with the nonsensical notion that political donations don’t garner influence. If you donate $5 to your local candidate, they basically don’t care who you are. If you donate $1m, you own them – because if you can afford to donate $1m, then you can sure as hell afford to continue to donate substantial amounts to your party of choice.
If we were mature we could have a proper conversation about campaign financing more generally. Unfortunately, we are not, and we won’t.
grimace @ #1707 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 9:34 pm
I have not seen any proposals that could even remotely accomplish this. If you know of one, please provide a link.
grimace @ #1711 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 9:37 pm
I have no idea what your ‘preferred path to decarbonization’ is. I’ve shown you mine – time to show me yours.
Guytaur@1680
In case its not been posted.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3786046/sinn-feins-mps-fly-to-london-to-take-up-their-westminster-offices-sparking-fears-they-will-wreck-plans-for-a-tory-dup-majority/
Thanks for posting this. I have refrained from commenting on the UK election result, because I do not want to mention the troubles here (see e.g. RGR and Energy). However, the DUP are a VERY nasty organisation – far worse then I realised until they came to prominence due to the recent (possible) power sharing arrangement in Westminster. Somehow I had thought that Peter Robinson had made them respectable…
As a citizen of Eire (although born in Australia), when the result of the UK election became clear, I was very bitter about Sinn Fein doing so well c.f. the SDLP – sectarianism gets Eire nowhere. Even more bitter about Sinn Fein not being willing to go to Westminster and fight for democracy, and for the EU, which has had a big part in ending the troubles.
However, from Guytaur’s link:
The party confirmed that its MPs will travel to Westminster for the House of Commons induction day for newcomers and will sign up for office space, register for staff allowances and expenses – despite their century-long policy of abstention in the UK Parliament.
Their presence at Westminster will spark fears in No10 that they are plotting to break their boycott to join other opposition parties in opposing Theresa May’s Queen’s Speech.
The Libs are imploding.
David LipsonVerified account @davidlipson 14m14 minutes ago
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Tony Abbott & Craig Laundy went at it in a “very heated” altercation lasting 10-15 minutes after the special Coalition party room #lateline
zoomster @ #1711 Tuesday, June 13th, 2017 – 9:36 pm
I don’t think that’s accurate. I think what resonated with young people was how awful Trump was. And also the Bernie Sanders platform. And Barack Obama.
Hillary wasn’t popular with young voters, but Trump was even less so. And deplorable enough that the overwhelming majority of young voters who bothered to turn out, turned out for Hillary. I’d need to see better corroborating evidence before accepting a conclusion that young people broke for Hillary because they liked her and her platform.
‘I’d need to see better corroborating evidence before accepting a conclusion that young people broke for Hillary because they liked her and her platform.’
Not exactly what I was saying – but I could say vice versa also applies here.
If something is unknown – if the evidence can be interpreted either way – then using it to push your own agenda is dubious.
My comment was more about that – that so much of the election analysis we’re seeing is “I want to believe that X is true, therefore I will take the results of this election and use it to prove X is true.”
Don
Paul Keating referred to John Hewson, who was intent on detailed fiscal modelling in his Milton Freedman inspired Fightback Manifesto as ‘the feral abacus’
Something like this P1 https://m.uts.edu.au/research-and-teaching/our-research/institute-sustainable-futures/our-research/energy-and-climate/100
What a revelation Foreign Correspondent was, with cameras inside Bali’s Kerobokan prison for 24 hours. What came across most strongly was the humane attitude of the guards and the prison authorities generally. The male prisoners get to walk around a vast outdoor that looks quite pleasant for most of the day. I know where I’d rather do time – there or here – if it ever came to that.
poroti @ #1637 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 7:34 pm
A real-time donation register certainly needs to be kept for AEC/ICAC type purposes to help police gaming of the system.
But full public disclosure of every penny could open up smaller donors in particular to retribution from employees, business associates, political opponents, etc.
If we only allow donations from registered voters, capped at a modest amount (maybe $3000/annum/voter), then the opportunity for the undue influence of donations, and foreign influence, is inherently limited, and hence the oversight value of obligatory public disclosure is reduced.
Of course, this is for legal donations. Illegal donations of cash, or other bribes in kind (e.g. lucrative post-politics careers in business sectors that an ex-MP/adviser/staffer/public servant was recently involved in regulating, or failing to), are another matter that needs attention.
Some weird developments in the U.K. Soft Brexit in the ascendency?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DCJl4f9XcAEh-KY?format=jpg&name=large
On other things, I am currently on the Big Island of Hawaii, in the town of Hilo, for work. I am still on Oz time, thinking of going to sleep at what feels like 10pm, while it is 2 am here. I will not enjoy the alarm!
Hilo is an interesting place. It is American in the fact that nothing is in walking distance from anywhere. I am lucky the hotel I am staying at has bikes I can use to get around.
However, Hilo is also very Polynesian, and I am hearing what I assume is the language of Hawaii spoken very commonly. It is not a tourist town. It feels more like regional Australian town, where most people are locals, such as Wagga Wagga or Albury.
Because the loose multinational conglomeration I work collaboratively with regards Hawaii as just a state of the USA, they are very insensitive to local objections to the building of yet more factories of the type I work in on the mountain of nearby Mauna Kea. I thought my work community was arrogant in its demands before I came to Hilo – claims such as “pretend natives with pretend sensibilities are standing in the way of progress” – but now I am here, I can only marvel at their blindness.
Hilo is a vibrant Polynesian culture, which is also part of a state of the US, but which still retains its own language, culture and traditions. It is fascinating to be here. However, nota bene, I am not talking about any “noble savage” rubbish, just saying that there is an ancient culture here that the world should be more aware of, and be very careful to preserve, alongside the convenience of cars, taxis, planes ans Walmart.
confessions @ #1705 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 9:29 pm
This sounds pretty standard for the industry in Cambodia from what I’ve heard.
Most of the workers are from rural areas and will leave their children back in the village to be looked after by family. They often live in company supplied accommodation and send money home to support their family.
Many of the prostitutes in Phnom Penh, Cambodia apparently came to the city as garment workers and were then enticed by the larger pay in the city bars.
D&M:
Thanks for that insight into your current work situation. Very interesting, esp how the integration of the local culture and traditional owners goes down. While the colonisation experience in western democracies may have universal experiences, there are still local elements that are unique.
Turncoat don’t have support of the party, he should try the Trump way to vote for loyalty, Sack em.
Also that 1.8m dollars he donated to LNP gone to waste right?
The Democrats missed their Corbyn moment when the Blairite equivalents on the DNC used both fair means an foul to stop Bernie Sanders being the nominee. Sanders was able, like Corbyn, to energise the young and those who rarely voted to come out and do just that. We will never know but just maybe Sanders may have , like Corbyn, been able to bring out the young and independents as well as the Democratic base in places like Michigan and Wisconsin. Clinton was establishment and we have now seen in the last 12 months that voters are prepared to reject establishment politics. The other similarity between Sanders and Corbyn is that they are are seen as honest and genuine and authentic. Not adjectives used in the same sentence as politician.
@Confesssions
Gina’s $2 dollar a day comes to mind.
..and Falcon does exactly what I’ve been talking about.
There should be no coal, no Clem coal, they pollute our air, end of story…
Renewable energy is the only saving grace, we have plenty of land and sun.
Clem = Clean
grimace @ #1722 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 10:04 pm
Well, at least this paper publicly proclaims its affiliation with domestic solar PV suppliers. So far I have only skimmed it, but I can’t yet see any practical mechanism by which this could actually be achieved. For example, is the shutdown of coal by 2030 simply imposed by regulation? Without compensation? If so, it is difficult to see that this is realistic. The solution also relies on technologies that are not yet mature (e.g. synfuels) and on social changes (e.g. a shift to public transport instead of private vehicles).
I will read more tomorrow and comment further.
Its all back to the 18th century. UK on course for lowest wage growth in 200 years.
https://mobile.twitter.com/resfoundation/status/874179012892950528/photo/1
That was when the cherry was still fresh. It has since been glazed and then consumed by the heap.
What we do know about the US elections is that while it is absolutely the case that those under 30s who did turn out did vote by a big majority for Clinton, the reality is that they did not turn out for Clinton in anything like the same numbers as they had done for Obama, and in a close election, that was extremely significant. I think it entirely possible that Sanders would have mobilised a higher turn out of younger voters, but of course we cannot assume just from that that he would have won; we know for example that he did not seem to resinate with African American and Latino voters.
Fiction writers must be beside themselves. You can’t make this stuff up.
Government paying out claims to prevent them going to court.
Ivanka using sweet shops.
Shin fan showing up in the English parliament.
Finkel review can’t even get Liberal support.
Kristina Keneally’s latest in the Guardian.
“Let’s call child sexual abuse in the church what it is: Catholic extremism”
Why has no one in the Churches been charged with being an accessory to these crimes?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/13/lets-call-child-sexual-abuse-in-the-church-what-it-is-catholic-extremism
The climate issue is poison for the Liberals. In tonight’s party room meeting:
“…one third of the speakers had been in favour of the Finkel review’s recommendations, one third opposed them outright and one third expressed concerns but were non-committal.”
So, one third are coal fetishists who are adamantly opposed to taking any meaningful action on climate change, one third think it’s an issue we need to address and one third will go with the flow (so will ultimately side with the ratbag right).
The Finkel Report is a dead parrot. Whatever compromise is reached, if any is possible, will be so weak that Labor will have no choice but to reject it (my conclusion).
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-to-hold-crunch-party-room-meeting-on-climate-and-energy-policy-20170613-gwpvj2.html
This could be more must-watch TV: Jeff Sessions testifying before Senate committee at 4.30am AEST.
It’s a nice try by Kristina Keneally: nobody committing these obscene acts against children has tried to use a distorted interpretation of the Bible as a defence. It’s straight-up criminality, though covered up of course by the church.
alias @ #1743 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 11:03 pm
Yeah, I didn’t think extremism was the right word.
The sexual abusers had direct contact with and protection from the mainstream Catholic Church, while many of the Islamic extremists have little contact with mainstream Islam.
Could climate change kill Turnbull’s leadership again? Unlikely, as he’ll probably end up taking his instructions from the deniers, but it seems pretty clear they have got themselves in to a real mess yet again. Meanwhile, climate inaction continues.
“Mainstream” what does that mean?
It can mean whatever you want it to mean.
The shiver and spine quote was Keating on Coward
Can the rest of you stop feeding the P1 troll – fuck off to an energy blog where some posters actually know what they are talking about and stick to the polls
swamprat @ #1746 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 11:33 pm
In the case of a Religion it would mean the official Hierarchy.
Wow! I go out for the night to work on a policy document for the upcoming Council elections, come home…and the Finkel Report has flucked Malcolm Turnbull courtesy of a right royal reaming by Tony Abbott and his crew of RWNJ Lame Gay Churchy Loser Droogs! A Clockwork Orange Redux! Were they playing Beethoven’s 5th in the Coalition Party Room? 😛
And it’s not over yet by the looks of things! Hooley dooley!
Mr Abbott told the meeting that Australia had a huge natural energy advantage and that it should make the most of it.
Yeah. More sun and wind than we know what to do with!