Very slight movement to Labor after a quiet week on the opinion poll front.
The only new poll this week was the usual weekly result from Essential Research, which causes the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to move slightly in favour of Labor. This includes a single gain on the seat aggregate, in this case from Victoria. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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What exalted company Abbott keeps!
Ratsak
Keating had a description of Howie that could be applied to Truffles ““He’s just a shiver looking for a spine to run up.”
Napoleon had an insult that could apply ““He is a piece of dung in a silk stocking.”
They did exactly the same thing in the US with the Republicans. Funding candidates to pick off sitting Democrats or sitting Republicans who were supportive of greater national action to reduce GHGEs.
poroti @ #1652 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 7:48 pm
I thought Keating said that about Costello.
Its going to be interesting how the media covers this.
1st up should be a dead man walking on death row as forces gather for a leadership challenge. (Using George Osborne’s comment on May)
Who is going to be our next PM?
Bemused
I ‘tink’ you right .
All this Coalition in-fighting should go down well in Newspoll this weekend!
BK
A poster last night said this could become an Abbottreturn giving us RGR repeat of history Abbott Turnbull Abbott. ATA. Wars.
If so invest in popcorn futures
That was in relation to Hewson, not Howard.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/melbourne-life/gospel-of-insults-according-to-paul-20110724-1hvbb.html
Coorey:
“Malcolm Turnbull has been hit with a stronger-than-anticipated backlash over plans to introduce a Clean Energy Target in a battle which is fast becoming a test of his leadership, Liberal sources say.
Despite the CET having the support of senior conservatives and other ministers, it did not translate into backbench support late on Tuesday as Coalition MPs at a special meeting discussed the findings of Chief Scientist Alan Finkel and his main recommendation for a CET to be adopted post-2020.
By early evening, sources inside the meeting said only four MPs had so far spoken in favour of Dr Finkel’s key recommendation while about 22, including Tony Abbott, were against, and four more unclear.
“It’s a slaughter,” said an MP inside the meeting “and a lot of the usual suspects haven’t spoken yet”.”
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/coalition-mps-revolt-against-clean-energy-target-20170612-gwpsnr
I think the Keating comment on Turnbull was something about a cherry on top of a compost heap
P1, I think others have noticed how rarely you challenge your own basic assumptions about renewable technology and its cost.
Ie: never
confessions @ #1646 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 7:42 pm
Finkel will get the memorial his name implies. A man who – when it really counted – didn’t have the courage of his convictions.
Mr Potatohead telling porkies? Never!
Woohoo! Abbott may yet be a Labor hero 🙂
So Labor with its offer of bipartisanship has given Turnbull a blood rush to the head.
Now a weakened PM with no authority. A party exposed as the coal lovers they are to the point even the Canberra Press Gallery cannot ignore it.
Well played Mr Shorten
Yep 🙂
(What did you expect from extremists?)
cud chewer @ #1662 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 8:05 pm
It is up to you to challenge my opinions if they conflict with the facts, and also any assumptions I may make – just as I do yours.
And let me think … how often do you even attempt to do so …
Actually no-one can get through your thick skull P1, so that task is left to you.
More munchies…
Good evening all,
Re Climate/ energy policy
Turnbull and his ministers have deliberately focused their rhetoric around price and reliability. They framed the terms of reference so tightly that Finkle had little room to move. I was very critical of him when the detail was released but I have mellowed a bit after thinking how tough his job was with both hands tied behind his back. The whole process is a sham and was always a political strategy designed to frame labor as the party of higher electricity prices and the coalition fighting for the ” battler” to lower cost of living. In simple terms it was designed as a hammer to hit Shorten and labor over the head with. However, the one thing Turnbull forgot ( again ) was how tuned in Shorten is to the politics at play and once again he and his party have totally underestimated Shorten.
It now appears even this watered down report cannot get through the coalition party room let alone anything with more umph. Shorten will continue to call on Turnbull to stand up and actually do something, labor will continue to call the CET a ” price on carbon ” to poke Abbott and the status quo will likely remain.
Given that Turnbull was never really committed to doing anything of substance and labor is not in government this should not come as a surprise.
Just as it was with Gonski 2.0, NDIS, Medicare levy, ” removing ” the Medicare freeze the Finkle report is just another example of Turnbull and his government being more interested in clinging to government than actually achieving.
Cheers.
This all depends how you define the word “fix”. Perhaps “stuff” would be a better word.
Probyn was emphasising on 7.30 how terrified the Liberal backbenchers are of having a climate reduction target anywhere near Labour’s. What a bunch of morons. Labour just plays them for mugs all the time.
cud chewer @ #1669 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 8:10 pm
Yet another intelligent contribution to the debate. At least you are consistent.
Player One @ #1638 Tuesday, June 13th, 2017 – 7:32 pm
No, at least not without also looking at replacing that same existing plant with other options (renewables, gas, etc.) and comparing them all in terms of build time, cost, and emissions.
Though I’m confident that building a new coal plant isn’t going to have enough of a time/cost advantage to offset its emissions disadvantage against gas, so I’m happy to rule that out. I’d retire the coal plant, and look at replacing it with gas or renewables.
Sure, but that consideration has to weigh it against other options. You don’t stop at the first thing that’s incrementally better than the current thing. You look at all the things you might possibly do, and pick the best one.
What is the plausible scenario under which you would build a new coal-fired plant instead of gas or something else? Being incrementally better than an old coal-fired plant isn’t sufficient when you could just as easily build a new gas-fired plant instead.
I would rule out the construction of any new coal-fired plants until it’s demonstrably proven that “clean coal” is both viable and clean (and economically justifiable). Policy is never set in stone, and the policy we put forward today should reflect today’s realities; not leave bad roads open in the hope that they become less bad in the future. If those roads become less bad in the future, they can be reopened in the future. There’s no point in pretending that they’re viable, today.
Labor chooses to eschew the ACL fundraiser. Liberal MPs are however attending and speaking.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/lanesainty/acl-fundraiser-at-parliament-house?bffbozpol&utm_term=.jsP2m8aPEb#.yuE9RjMWdl
With the dinosaurs winning I think we may have just witnessed the night the LNP died as a political party. They have boxed themselves into being on Senator Roberts of Ine Nations bench
Confessions
After tonight the ACL will have more credibility.
Bernardi should be good for a few quid.
What are the chances that one day soon Turnbull will have simply had enough of it all and just resign his seat, leaving them trying to sell an ascendant hard-right rump in a majority-threatening snap by-election for an inner city small-L liberal slash posh tory seat?
In case its not been posted.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3786046/sinn-feins-mps-fly-to-london-to-take-up-their-westminster-offices-sparking-fears-they-will-wreck-plans-for-a-tory-dup-majority/
a r @ #1674 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 8:18 pm
These assumptions were of course implicit in my question (although I may place less emphasis on economic cost than you do) – so it seems we basically agree.
So what are we arguing about?
Mal the Still Magnificent will make a craven ‘compromise’ on Finkel that even the loonies in his party will accept, and the CPG will, as one, hail it as a masterstroke.
The ALP will understandably reject this, and be accused of rejecting bipartisanship and threatening Australia’s energy security (code for coal and lots of it) and raising power prices.
You know it makes sense.
At the end of the day, though, the LNP boofheads won’t go near a carbon price of any sort because that would be tantamount to denying their faith-based belief that global warming is a hoax. It would be like spitting on the True Cross. This isn’t even about coal industry donations. At the end of the day, Malcolm is fighting religious nutters.
Surely the political reality is that if things are as grim for Turnbull in his partyroom, on this climate subject, as they would appear from today’s meeting – then surely Turnbull will find a way to put this issue on the backburner (a disaster for the country obviously).
Meanwhile in London, Theresa May’s new Environment Minister Michael Gove is talking commonsense on this topic.
“I think that we need international cooperation in order to deal with climate change. The only way in which you can deal with this challenge, the only way in which we can enhance the environment to pass on to our children in a better state is by working across borders.”
shiftaling – You’re assuming that Turnbull is a decent, upright bloke who cares about the country. He’s none of those things. He’s a bag of shit in a sharp suit. He will swallow whatever crap is necessary to remain PM. Remember, he also wants to shoehorn his son-in-law in as his replacement in Wentworth. If he cuts and runs now, that won’t be easy.
However, having said all that, if it’s clear that he won’t win the next election, there is a good chance he will walk, but that’s a fair way off yet.
Alias:
My expectation is that Turnbull will cave on the CET. He’s done it before on SSM and several other issues, so no reason to assume that won’t be the outcome here.
bk @ #1657 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 7:54 pm
All the L/NP in-fighting combined with being 47=53 down in the polls and what do our CPG talk about? They extrapolate the UK election result onto Australia and speculate about Labor leadershit and then go on to wonder why few take them seriously when they endorse/disendorse a candidate/party during election campaigns.
“What are the chances that one day soon Turnbull will have simply had enough of it all and just resign his seat, leaving them trying to sell an ascendant hard-right rump in a majority-threatening snap by-election for an inner city small-L liberal slash posh tory seat?”
Approximately the same as his chances of Malcolm growing wings and flying under his own power to the Caymans. If it was ever a possibility, it would have happened by now.
Malcolm gives every impression of being perfectly happy as front man for a hard right party and Government. He acts as a sort of barrister for the dominant right, representing and boosting their cause, regardless of his personal beliefs. That is, assuming that he has any and that they are different from those of the hard right.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/alp-reels-after-resignation-and-calls-for-china-donations-inquiry-20170613-gwq0yo.html
Labor is reeling after an adviser resigned amid revelations that the party bankrolled its 2016 federal election campaign with the help of up to $140,000 in donations from gold dealers linked to a multimillion-dollar tax scam.
The resignation from NSW Labor of rising star, 2016 Senate candidate and gold trader Simon Zhou, comes as respected ALP MP Anthony Byrne called for a full parliamentary inquiry into foreign interference and donations, with public hearings by the joint parliamentary intelligence committee, of which he is deputy chair
player one @ #1608 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 6:40 pm
No P1, the “technology agnostic” line is not being taken out of context. The L/NP are already talking about funding CCS (when it has already received billions in public support & failed), various ministers continue to spruik coal technology and the L/NP would still dearly love to trash the RET.
I am not technology agnostic. I do not support coal. I do not support new gas. We face a genuine existential crisis with climate change. One that can only be addressed by rapid transition to renewables plus battery. Spending money on new gas is a delaying tactic and a waste of precious resources.
If we treated the rollout of renewable energy as seriously as we did terrorism, or replicated the industrial effort that was thrown at WW2, or even the money that has been thrown at the War on Terror, the electricity sector would be carbon free in less than 10 years.
Player One @ #1683 Tuesday, June 13th, 2017 – 8:36 pm
Whether or not it’s valid to claim agnosticism if a certain technology is ruled out, with or without the proviso that it may be reconsidered in the future should its viability unexpectedly change?
And perhaps more importantly, whether or not that’s what right-wing figures mean when they claim to be “technology agnostic”.
I’m sure it has been posted before, but when is the earliest eMpTy can go to the polls with the normal half Senate poll?
Steve777
He was a ‘Golden Sacks’ bankster . So morals, conscience,ethics etc etc ? Hahahahaahaaha.
From the NY Times email last Friday:
Well put Grimace.
Pegasus
NSWs politics is a cesspit of corruption.
Forget the relationship between Sam Dastyari and Chinese interests. The really big story has got to be the relationship between prominent Liberals, Nationals and Big Coal. The full story will come out in due course, although by then the miscreants will be too old or too dead to be brought to account.
grimace @ #1691 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 9:08 pm
Money is a ‘precious resource’?
It’s perfectly ok with me if you are not ‘technology agnostic’ – as long as you acknowledge the consequence – which is that we may end up emitting more C02 than we would do if we were willing to employ all available technologies.
Favoring a specific technology is also fine, as long as you acknowledge that you have an interest over and above simply reducing C02.
As I said earlier, the vested interests in the US targetted the GOP in ways that made it impossible for sitting members or budding candidates to win or win preselection because they funded the campaigns of their opponents.
Do I suspect something similar could happen here? You betcha.