BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Very slight movement to Labor after a quiet week on the opinion poll front.

The only new poll this week was the usual weekly result from Essential Research, which causes the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to move slightly in favour of Labor. This includes a single gain on the seat aggregate, in this case from Victoria. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  1. Here’s How Trump Made His Problems Worse By Taking Legal Action Against Comey

    Moments after it was reported that President Trump’s personal lawyer Marc Kasowitz is going to file a complaint against former FBI Director James Comey, Norm Eisen of CREW announced “This is an abuse of process and we will be filing a defense of Comey.”

    But what has Trump done with this lawsuit? He’s officially declared war on the FBI. Like an idiot who still thinks he’s in control and still thinks the real problem is he’s not leaning on people hard enough.

  2. Trump Cracks And Accidentally Admits That He Asked Comey For Loyalty

    During a joint press conference with the president of Romania, Donald Trump accidentally admitted that he asked for Comey’s loyalty as denied making the request of the former FBI Director.

    A person who really didn’t say that doesn’t have to add, and if I did say that, there would be nothing wrong. Trump felt the need to try to cover himself with an admission wrapped in a denial.

    Trump said it, and unintentionally confirmed a key part of Comey’s testimony as true.

  3. House Intel Committee Demands Turn Over Of All Comey Recordings As Trump Bluff Backfires

    The House Intelligence Committee is demanding that the White House turn over all recordings, memos, and communications with former FBI Director James Comey, as Donald Trump has officially had his tapes bluff called by the Russia investigation.

    Logic suggests that there are no White House recordings because if Trump had tapes that contradicted Comey’s notes, he would have released them as proof of his innocence. The fact that Trump has released nothing, but keeps making increasingly vague and crazy bluffs about tapes is a good indication that he’s got nothing.

    Trump has two weeks to either release the tapes or tell the truth. Either way, this won’t end well for Donald Trump.

  4. NY attorney general eyes investigation of Eric Trump Foundation after damning ‘self-dealing’ report reported that after months of investigating the Donald Trump Foundation, AG Eric Schneidermann’s office will now focus on President Trump’s son Eric after report’s surfaced this week that the cancer fund had diverted donations to Trump family businesses.

  5. ‘Corrupt intent up the wazoo’: Ex-Watergate prosecutor says Comey has planted seeds of Trump’s downfall

    Appearing on MSNBC this week, former U.S. Attorney Nick Akerman — who served as an assistant special prosecutor in the Watergate case — said that Comey’s testimony had effectively established a case for obstruction of justice that special counsel Robert Mueller could pursue if he so chose.

    Specifically, Akerman pointed to the Trump administration’s constantly shifting rationales for firing Comey as a reason to think Mueller could make a case that Trump fired Comey to kill the Russia investigation.

  6. Lizzie

    Save $90 a year on electricity? Big hairy deal.

    ACTAGL electricity bills are going up by an average of $650 this coming year.

  7. Comey has some words the Russiagate followers should keep in mind.

    There have been many, many stories based on — well, lots of stuff, but about Russia that are dead wrong,” Comey said.


    ……the people talking about it often don’t really know what’s going on, and those of us who actually know what’s going on are not talking about it,” Comey said.


    Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) asked the former FBI director about a bombshell New York Times report from Feb. 14 titled “Trump Campaign Aides Had Repeated Contacts With Russian Intelligence.” …….Cotton asked Comey if that story was “almost entirely wrong,” and Comey said that it was


    Former FBI Director James Comey repeatedly warned Thursday that news reports based on leaks of classified information pertaining to the Russia investigation have been consistently wrong.

    CNN this week had to issue a correction after it reported that Comey would testify that he never told Trump that he wasn’t the target of an investigation.

    In his opening remarks, Comey confirmed that he told Trump three times he was not personally the target of an FBI investigation.

    Not to worry if the Russiagate stuff is largely rubbish there are still clouds hanging over Trump remaining in office.

    It wasn’t Watergate, but Comey hearing could be Trump’s Waterloo

    This was James Comey’s day.

    In no way did it lift the cloud for Donald Trump.

    Comey was calm, candid and deliberate. He clearly made the case that this President tampered and leaned on him to not do his job. Comey did not hold back.

  8. CTar1

    ACTAGL electricity bills are going up by an average of $650 this coming year.

    Somebody’s making huge profits. Come back state electricity commissions.

  9. Michael Pascoe‏ @MichaelPascoe01 · 16h16 hours ago

    So it looks like the main finding of “much-awaited” Finkel report is that we need another report – one whose terms of ref aren’t nobbled

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. We’ve got a bumper “Saturday Special” today!

    Now, according to Trump, Comey is a “leaker”. Via Twitter of course.
    Paul McGeough looks at the fallout from the Comey testimony.
    Trump’s legal team is setting to file a complaint against “leaker Comey”.
    Trump says he’s willing to testify under oath. Do you really reckon he will?
    Crispin Hull describes Trump as a selfish barbarian.
    Peter Hartcher says that Turnbull has entered a new phase but wonders if anyone will notice it.
    The NSW government plans to co-opt the private sector in its fight against terrorism, saying businesses need to be their eyes and ears looking out for lone wolves not on security radars.
    Michael Koziol explains the outcomes from COAG on the subject of terrorism and parole.
    Michael Gordon,, however says that thoughtful and well informed public debate took a back seat to political point-scoring, blame-shifting, opportunism and knee-jerk responses after the Brighton siege. Pettiness is running the show he says.

  11. Section 2 . . .

    The number of home loans being given to Australians has fallen to a two year low, fuelling speculation of a property downturn following a crackdown on investor loans by the federal government.
    The shock UK election result opens up more possibilities over how Brexit will proceed.
    Mark Kenny draws parallels between May’s and Turnbull’s last elections.
    The SMH editorial says that May has weakened herself and the country with her gamble.
    Key ministers remain silent after a damaged Theresa May vows to soldier on.
    Yes, the sharks are circling May.
    Nick Miller writes that Tories are not known for tolerating failure. And Theresa May lost by unnecessarily rolling the dice.
    Troy Bramston writes that May’s snap election ¬designed to crush Labour and strengthen her hand in Brexit ¬negotiations has been an unmitigated disaster. A fitting result he says. Google.
    Just who or what is the DUP, the small group supporting May’s new government?

  12. Section 3 . . .

    Anne Summers says that Trump’s tweets have gone from being quirky to be worrying and potentially dangerous.–theyre-worrying-and-potentially-dangerous-20170608-gwn3og.html
    Surely the amount of savings Finkel says households could make on electricity costs will be imperceptible given what has been happening since Abbott wrecked the joint!.
    Here’s why.
    Peter Hannam correctly calls out Finkel as Australia’s Chief Political Scientist.
    Adam Morton agrees that it was a political fix.
    Phil Coorey writes about the disastrous effect Abbott has had on the country’s climate change policies and looks to the next steps in the “war”. Google.
    Paula Matthewson says Bill Shorten’s call for a bipartisan approach on energy and climate is a Trojan horse aimed at undermining the PM.
    Mike Seccombe writes that Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord, and his visceral unpopularity, may actually lift efforts to halt climate change. He’s kicked an own goal he says.
    Gary Linnell says that the crackdown on the cash economy is merely a smokescreen for the government’s greatest failure, namely the loss of tax revenue from big multinationals operating here.

  13. Section 4 . . .

    Meanwhile Australia’s highest-risk taxpayer has lost an appeal in the Federal Court on a $15 million tax bill relating to interest income. Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation has been in long-running legal battles with the ATO and in 2015 was outed as the nation’s highest risk taxpayer. There will be no tears shed on this one by most Australians!
    The daughter-in-law of Australian Taxation Office deputy commissioner Michael Cranston, and dozens of companies and individuals allegedly linked to a major tax fraud scheme, are among 60 parties whose assets have been frozen by the Australian Federal Police.
    Saudi Arabia is unarguably one of the world’s leading abusers of basic human rights. So you’d think that would mean arms sales from decent, democratic nations would be the subject of close scrutiny. Then there’s Australia, writes Michael Brull.
    Recent events relating to Qatar are just the latest in a long list the media have only partially reported upon. James O’Neill fills in the gaps.,10382
    Kathryn Murphy fires up and writes if we believe in democracy, all players in the electoral system, whether political actors or cashed-up interest groups, should be required to disclose, in real time, the source of their funding. It’s difficult to disagree.
    The NSW Liberal Party is a fine outfit!
    Airing secret recordings of Pauline Hanson and James Ashby during a Four Corners investigation into One Nation were not a breach of rules because it was newsworthy and in the public interest, the media regulator has found. Cop that Pauline!
    Laurie Oakes is a bit concerned about the influence Jim Moylan is having. Google.

  14. Section 5 . . .

    Hanson’s call for internment is a nod to our dark past.
    And Paul Bongiorno in a long article about the blame game on terrorism concludes it with “Dumb politics, playing on people’s fear and prejudices, does work, as we have seen in recent times, but it leaves a destroyed village and too much collateral damage”.
    Jacqui Maley serves it up to those protesting at reproductive health clinics. She goes into the political forces at play in NSW and in particular “The Taliban” – the deeply conservative right wing of the NSW Liberal Party. A good article.
    Wendy Squires has penned an excellent tribute to Anthony Foster who had a Victorian state funeral this week. She also tributes the South Australian nurse who rushed into the London Bridge fray to help victims but got killed herself.
    In the meantime Philip Wilson, archbishop of Adelaide, is preparing to step aside from his duties after the New South Wales court of appeal unanimously dismissed his latest attempt to have a charge of failing to report child abuse quashed.
    Michael West goes public with the spat he’s having with Murdoch and The Australian. We should wish him well.
    While the world is enjoying the current economic recovery, Australians are losing jobs, wages, wealth and income. Alan Austin updates the gross mismanagement leading to our wealth being shipped straight offshore.,10381
    Tony Windsor says that growing country towns will not become a reality this century without appropriate digital technology, notably the national broadband network. The NBN should be the infrastructure priority. A second-class internet and communication system will do more damage to the future in the regions than any benefits flowing from upgraded north–south rail.

  15. Section 6 . . . with Cartoon Corner Part 1

    The competition watchdog is pushing to have its case against the nation’s biggest milk processor Murray Goulburn tried before a class action threatens to drag the matter out.
    The “political self-interest” of Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is driving the move of the pesticides authority from Canberra to his own northern NSW electorate, a Senate committee has found.
    Where would thinking parents stand with this in a public primary school?
    Tony Wright has some fun at Trump’s expense.

    John Shakespeare with Turnbull at sea.

    Cathy Wilcox puts the boot into protesters around women’s reproductive health practices.

    Alan Moir with the support various leaders are getting from the parties behind them.

    Trump’s Middle East politics.

  16. Section 7 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    Look closely at this one from Broelman.

    Cathy Wilcox and what drives CEOs.

    Alan Moir with Turnbull’s view of Struggle Street.

    David Rowe with the new “stability” in the UK parliament.

    Mark Knight and the minute’s silence at the Australia v Saudi Arabia soccer game.
    David Pope with a somewhat diminished Theresa May.
    Jon Kudelka and Theresa May’s election machine.

  17. Morning all. I can but agree with Lizzie and others on Finkel and electricity prices. AGL has just announced an 18% increase in prices for SA next year that will completely swamp the potential $90 power saving. So Finkel will not save our Paris commitments or household budgets. What will it save? Coal mines! Hurray for crony capitalism, the rentier society goes on.

  18. From Crispin Hull’s article:

    For example, the mining industry gave Queensland Labor just $3.5 million in the past 10 years. Behold, the Adani coal mine gets not only approval but looks like getting public money – against the wishes of most Australians, in particular, the businesses dependant on the Great Barrier Reef.

  19. Poroti,
    Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) asked the former FBI director about a bombshell New York Times report from Feb. 14 titled “Trump Campaign Aides Had Repeated Contacts With Russian Intelligence.” …….Cotton asked Comey if that story was “almost entirely wrong,” and Comey said that it was

    You’d be a rotten lawyer, poroti.

    Of course, Trump Campaign Aides didn’t walk up to the FSB HQ, knock on the door and ask, “May we come in for a meeting?”

    Now, go look for the proof of the existence of your ‘Nothingburger’ where Comey explicitly states under oath that no members of the Trump Campaign Team, or associates, met with Russians that have links to Putin.

  20. Thanks for the roundup BK. At first I was surprised that the UK CONs allowed May to continue in office. But in hindsight, I doubt any of her potential successors want the job now until Brexit is completed. They want May to wear the flak for the costs.

  21. FFS. Start, restart, reset, whatever some of the press still believe ‘good government will start today …

    Malcolm Turnbull enters a new phase, but will anyone notice?

    … the Turnbull government is now engaged seriously in trying to solve some big problems that touch the lives of most of the people.

    In particular Malcolm Bligh Turnbull.

  22. CTar
    You are probably correct re May’s time in office. But I can’t think of any other reason for the delay. The rivals must want her to at least start the process.

    Reportedly David Davis wanted the early election, and Boris may want to avoid Brexit given his past association with the campaign. Perhaps May’s rivals are too weak to challenge.

  23. Thanks BK. A bumper edition indeed! And typical of bigly small man Trump to keep on anger tweeting at Comey’s testimony. So mature.

  24. Soc – Two big things potential UK PM’s would want to avoid are being PM when a) the union goes tits up, and b) the Brexit negotiations get ‘sticky’.

  25. ‘Careful consultation, political skill, a fairer formula, a Gonski endorsement and an extra $18.6 billion did the trick. Labor will continue to carp. But, with two exceptions, the schools systems across the country have accepted this package.

    The exceptions are the ACT, and a single Catholic archdiocese, NSW’s Broken Bay, an area to Sydney’s immediate north.’

    Sorry, did I hallucinate a presser fronted by the NSW Education Minister and his Shadow?

    It was a great dream: I also had major protests from Catholic schools across the nation in there.

    ‘The unassuming Greg Hunt had already proved himself to be an especially capable minister. As environment minister, he’d managed to salvage some key elements of Labor’s climate change policy and preserve them under Tony Abbott’s prime ministership. ‘

    Exactly what did Hunt salvage? References to ‘climate change’?

    ‘And he persuaded Abbott to commit Australia to a cut in carbon emissions of 26 to 28 per cent for the Paris Accord..’

    Bollocks he did. The Accord was reached in December 2015. Abbott departed in September.

    ‘Australia’s climate change policy has been a dog’s breakfast, but without Hunt there would have been no meal at all. ‘

    Again, bollocks. The Coalition had a policy on climate change because it needed to have a policy on climate change. They would have had a policy on climate change regardless of which genius happened to be the Minister.

    ‘The question is whether anyone has noticed Turnbull’s policy successes? And, if so, will they give the government any credit?’

    It seems that the media have still not given up on the idea of Malcolm the Magneficent. They hailed him as a genius prior to last year’s federal election. Nothing daunted by the result, they’re still taking every single turd he lays, polishing it furiously and then holding it out to the public expecting them to overlook the smell and embrace it.

    It’s all Shorten’s fault, for not being bipartisan and telling everyone that the turd is really a very nice one, all things considered. Or Abbott’s fault (even though the media are the only people who listen to him).

    And now we’re moving on to the next phase: it’s the fault of voters, who don’t appreciate that Malcolm is deigning to look down upon them from the mansion windows and trying to work out what objection they have to eating cake.

  26. Thanks BK
    Mike Seccombe’s detailed article shows exactly how Trump has helped elevate climate change to the top of the agenda.
    For similar reasons, he is also elevating the subjects of single payer health care, and the incompetence and nastiness of the Republicans to the front of mind in the US.
    The US and the world does not need Mike Pence or another “moderate” Republican leader in charge. They might thyen be actually able to pass their odious legislation.
    Trump is doing just fine.

  27. I’m a little confused. The Essential 2pp for Labor went down a point but Bludgertrack went up and they gained another seat. How does that work? Not that I’m complaining.

  28. If Labor gains one more seat on Bludgertrack to 90-55 the position of the parties will be exactly reversed from where they were after the 2013 election, just four years ago. Rex is right. That no hoper Shorten is taking them nowhere.

  29. This is a good article by Stan Grant that looks at some of the issues behind Islam and terrorism, and what ordinary muslims (and others) can do about it. Now as it was ten years ago, there is a crying need for greater effort to “win the hearts and minds” if we ever hope to end the “war on terror”.

  30. Morning all

    Another fine effort BK. Appreciated!

    And thank you for latest on the man child Trump. What can one say about the latest instalment of this shit show.

  31. “Not to worry if the Russiagate stuff is largely rubbish there are still clouds hanging over Trump remaining in office.”
    Not really wanting to insert myself into that argument…but….i think this may turn out to be the classic case of the cover up being more important than whats being covered up.

  32. Just sayin

    Poor Donald. He had no other takers to be his legal representatives. This guy obviously is a hack like him!

  33. Imacca

    nah. I reckon the deeds in this instance are pretty awful.
    This does not compare to Nixon. He was at least a Patriot

  34. victoria Saturday, June 10, 2017 at 9:10 am
    Morning all
    Another fine effort BK. Appreciated!

    And thank you for latest on the man child Trump. What can one say about the latest instalment of this shit show.

    In the back of my mind I have always felt that IF Trump is to go down it will be for issues BEFORE his presidency. I thing that NY Attorney General Eric Schneidermann’s office is hell bent on taking the whole Trump family down for money/mobster issues ….

    This week was a bit of an anti-climax – I would like to see Trump under oath …. still a long ways to go though

  35. Turnbull probably thought that Finkel’s report would give him some political benefit. However the climate wars within the LNP factions look set to continue unabated.

    Pro-coal backbenchers within the Liberal Party have already begun undermining a report from the chief scientist Alan Finkel, as Labor foreshadows pulling support for the proposal if new coal-fired power stations are built.

  36. victoria
    Saturday, June 10, 2017 at 9:10 am
    And thank you for latest on the man child Trump. What can one say about the latest instalment of this shit show.


    Here is another shit show then Victoria :

    Appalled NATO Allies Call Dinner With Trump “A Total Sh*tshow”

    NATO allies were so appalled after Trump winged his remarks at a behind closed doors dinner that sources described the event as a “total sh*tshow.”

    During the dinner, Trump went off-script to criticize allies again for not spending enough on defense. (The United States is one of only five members that meets NATO members’ pledge to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense.)

    Several sources briefed extensively on the dinner say he said 2 percent wasn’t enough and allies should spend 3 percent of GDP on defense, and he even threatened to cut back U.S. defense spending and have Europeans dole out “back pay” to make up for their low defense spending if they didn’t pony up quickly enough. Two sources say Trump didn’t mention Russia once during the dinner.

    “Oh, it was like a total shitshow,” said one source, who spoke on condition of anonymity as they weren’t authorized to discuss the closed-door dinner.

    “The dinner was far worse than the speech,” said a former senior U.S. government official briefed on dinner. “It was a train wreck. It was awful.”

  37. PhoenixRed

    It is all so serious, but the shit show remarks made me chuckle. It is good to see that I am not the only one who thinks it is a shit show. Lol!

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