Very slight movement to Labor after a quiet week on the opinion poll front.
The only new poll this week was the usual weekly result from Essential Research, which causes the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to move slightly in favour of Labor. This includes a single gain on the seat aggregate, in this case from Victoria. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Vic:
I thought Maher was nicely taken to task by Ice Cube and the other African American guests, and he was clearly remorseful and apologetic about what went down last week.
Jackol,
Do the actions of Robert Mueller, mentioned above, qualify as substantial or insubstantial by way of waking Americans up to the problems with their system?
Fess
Indeed. Was rather sobering
After berating Bill Maher for racism, did Ice Cube treat the audience to a performance of Black Korea?
This is an interesting comparison.
https://twitter.com/billybragg/status/873235226734063616/photo/1
C@t
Point well made!
Have to say, I am puzzled by some commentary on this blog relating to what is going on with Trump and co.
So many have expressed all sorts of views and permutations on the UK election and yet we should just ignore the US and its current state of play because same same meh whatever. Which of course, could be said of anything including the circle jerk re local politics. Passing strange
Victoria
Perhaps there are only so many claims that Trump is cactus/busted due to this or that event but coming to nought before people start going Meh ?
The last phase, the very nasty bit, of retaking Mosul is underway.
RIP 10’s of thousands.
Am I right to think NO Newspoll till after next weekend, due to Monday Holiday?
50 years ago I saw the writing on the wall for dear old England, left, and never looked back.
America too is very close to to falling into a lost State. As part of the process of ridding themselves of Trump they need to fix the election process as a top priority.
Catmomma – Mueller is looking at Obstruction of Justice by Trump. A couple of points on that related to my initial comments:
1) Obstruction of Justice is a separate issue to alleged Russian-Trump conspiracy. The former is entirely possible regardless of what may have taken place with respect to the latter.
2) Anything that Mueller investigates or concludes feeds into the political process around Trump. Trump can’t be “convicted” of Obstruction of Justice for what he is alleged to have done as president, except in the court of public opinion (or the subset of that that inhabits Congress).
3) It’s all a very narrow political process, and doesn’t really inform much of anything to do with the systems that went toward electing Trump in the first place, or that result in the dysfunction of the Presidency and Congress and their interactions, either in the form of Trump, Obama, or whoever comes after.
4) What can come of Mueller’s investigation beyond a negative assessment of Trump that may or may not feed impeachment proceeding? Potentially, way down the track, resulting in Trump being removed, but doing nothing to improve the system. A historical footnote on how Presidents should and should not interact with various Federal agencies that the next Trump will know of and study precisely as much as this Trump studied the precedents before him…
Poroti
It took 27 months for Watergate to get sorted and it all started with deep-throat sources l. Nothing more.
The Trump Imbroglio is a scandal on steroids by comparison. A special prosecutor has already been appointed and there are FBI.invrstigatons ongoing. I still don’t get your bloody angst.
Just ignore my posts if they announced you
Announced _ annoy
Vic – You should ignore Poroti’s comments if they annoy you.
Victoria –
If this comment was referencing what I was saying earlier then you are completely misrepresenting what I was saying.
I have never said that we should “ignore the US”, and I’m saying “meh” specifically to the Russian-Trump conspiracy stuff.
A short history of Trump & Family Money Affairs
A) Trump’s business network reached alleged Russian mobsters
President Trump and his properties have been linked to at least 10 wealthy former Soviet businessmen with alleged ties to criminal organizations and money laundering. USA TODAY
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/03/28/trump-business-past-ties-russian-mobsters-organized-crime/98321252/
B) Hacker, Banker, Soldier, Spy: A Guide to the Key Players in the Trump-Russia Scandal
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/06/russia-trump-putin-scandal-key-players-dossiers/
C ) Here’s what we know so far about Team Trump’s ties to Russian interests
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/trump-russia/?hpid=hp_no-name_graphic-story-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.54b0142a288e
D ) Is Donald Trump’s casino empire linked to money laundering? Past financial crimes may be the president’s biggest problem
http://www.salon.com/2017/05/23/is-donald-trumps-casino-empire-linked-to-money-laundering-past-financial-crimes-may-be-the-presidents-biggest-problem/
Ctar1
I guess when one directs a post specifically to me I have the right of reply. But good point. I will ignore from now on
poroti loves his Autocratic Authoritarian Rulers, Vic. He can go, ‘Meh!’ and they don’t mind a bit. 😉
He gets to keep up the gimcrack against people who care about what the Authoritarian nutjobs are doing to the world, and THEY get to keep carrying on regardless.
Jackpot
I would argue that if the president is compromised. It is not simply meh.
But you of course can think that. Your prerogative
C@t
Fair enough! Meh ain’t gonna cut it for me thougj. Lol!
Karl Rove is done with Trump: He ‘lacks the focus or self-discipline to do the basic work required of a president’
Republicans have been slow to come out against President Donald Trump but conservative strategist Karl Rove is done.
In a blistering op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, Rove said, “Trump lacks the focus or self-discipline to do the basic work required of a president.”
“Increasingly it appears Mr. Trump lacks the focus or self-discipline to do the basic work required of a president,” he closed. “His chronic impulsiveness is apparently unstoppable and clearly self-defeating. Mr. Trump may have mastered the modes of communication, but not the substance, thereby sabotaging his own agenda.”
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/karl-rove-is-done-with-trump-he-lacks-the-focus-or-self-discipline-to-do-the-basic-work-required-of-a-president/
French President Macron trolls Trump with new website: Make our planet great again
French President Emmanuel Macron isn’t done trolling President Donald Trump. Macron, who recently took office, launched a website on Thursday called: Make Our Planet Great Again.
Macron’s site blasts Trump administration’s climate change denial.
“Faced with the climatic skepticism of the new government of the United States, President Emmanuel Macron invited American scientists to come work in France,” the site reads.
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/french-president-macron-trolls-trump-with-new-website-make-our-planet-great-again/
Karl Rove is just figuring this out now?
We get lots of that here in Australia too – some people!!!
These statements from Arrington and Marshall are rooted in the same religious idea: that the poor and sick — or at least a subset thereof — supposedly deserve their plight, and healthy and more financially secure Americans shouldn’t be forced to care for them.
This theology has incensed many progressive Christians of late, but it didn’t appear overnight. It’s the result of a decades-long campaign by conservative lawmakers, intellectuals, and theologians to craft a theology that rejects longstanding Christian understandings of society’s needy.
https://thinkprogress.org/bad-theology-conservative-benefits-1d42ef90b387
‘This theology has incensed many progressive Christians of late, but it didn’t appear overnight.’
Well, no. The hymn “All things bright and beautiful” is based on this theology and it was written in the mid 1800s.
Jackol,
1) Obstruction of Justice is a separate issue to alleged Russian-Trump conspiracy.
No, actually one is intimately linked to the other. Why do you think Trump wants to obstruct justice?
The former is entirely possible regardless of what may have taken place with respect to the latter.
Which means that gathering evidence to prove one informs the prosecution of the other.
2) Anything that Mueller investigates or concludes feeds into the political process around Trump. Trump can’t be “convicted” of Obstruction of Justice for what he is alleged to have done as president, except in the court of public opinion (or the subset of that that inhabits Congress).
Therefore, if we continue to inform the public, and ourselves, of what is going on, that informs the court of public opinion.
Was it not the court of public opinion that convinced Richard Nixon to Stand Down as President? I have heard it said that there was a case put to him that he could have succeeded in not being Impeached.
Therefore, the more pressure applied, the better for the case against Trump. Even if there is no case for ‘Obstruction of Justice’, there is the court of public opinion reflected in the Mid Term Elections in America, and so if evidence of Trump Campaign-Russia co-operation is found it will colour judgements.
3) It’s all a very narrow political process, and doesn’t really inform much of anything to do with the systems that went toward electing Trump in the first place, or that result in the dysfunction of the Presidency and Congress and their interactions, either in the form of Trump, Obama, or whoever comes after.
That perspective tends to be fatalist, to say the least, and, as a result, dismissive of the more important question here. That is, if our democracy can be so fatally-weakened by the covert intrusion of another nation with malign intent, whither Democracy into the future?
So it is vitally important for Democracy to have the investigation into the Trump Campaign-Russia links and campaign within the campaign to destabilise and delegitimise the Democratic candidate. To have the evidence laid out for the world to see, and to then move forward on a way to deal with it for the future.
4) What can come of Mueller’s investigation beyond a negative assessment of Trump that may or may not feed impeachment proceeding? Potentially, way down the track, resulting in Trump being removed, but doing nothing to improve the system. A historical footnote on how Presidents should and should not interact with various Federal agencies that the next Trump will know of and study precisely as much as this Trump studied the precedents before him…
What a despondent perspective! Me, I’m on the side of someone with a fine mind and a good heart studying the same material and devising a way to not let it happen again!
The way you seem to be looking at it, someone should just go up and hand over the keys to Fort Knox to the Trump Gang!
I, on the other hand, am with Ghandi and Nelson Mandela. Individuals who suffered all the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune because it is nobler in the mind to bear the whips and scorns of time, the law’s delay and the oppressor’s wrong, so that they may be, ultimately, the change we all want.
I can do nothing more with MY life, than support anyone who does these hard yards for the greater good. And that’s what I think we are dealing with here. Not some mere bagatelle.
confessions Saturday, June 10, 2017 at 4:09 pm
“Karl Rove is done with Trump: He ‘lacks the focus or self-discipline to do the basic work required of a president’”
Karl Rove is just figuring this out now?
Chuck Grassley ( R ) ….. Karl Rove ( R ) ………………….Pence – up to his eyeballs with Flynn, Sessions – a moron and under a cloud, Ryan – allegedly on tape with McConnell stitching up Russian funds …..
…… and facing them Robert Mueller and NY Attorney General, Eric Schneiderman with RICO charges, fired attorney Preet Bharara going public next week, Congressman Ted Lieu attacking Trumps lawyer …
….. a slow, painful death march for Trump and his sleazebag family …..
Ted Lieu goes off on Donald Trump’s attorney and suggests he could end up in prison
By Bill Palmer
Congressman Ted Lieu has never been afraid to speak his mind when it comes to Donald Trump’s antics. Lieu is also a former JAG prosecutor with a legal degree, so he knows what he’s talking about when it comes to the law. Now he’s going all-in on Trump’s new attorney, whose actions on Trump’s behalf appear to be in violation of professional ethics and maybe even in violation of the law.
Ted Lieu wasted no time on Friday morning, asserting that “Trump’s lawyer is lying. No law prevents Comey from disclosing unclassified conversation. And Congress passed laws to protect whistleblowers.”
But then Lieu took things further by declaring that “Trump’s lawyer is being unethical. Comey can disclose unclassified conversations. That’s why Trump couldn’t stop Comey from testifying.”
Finally, Lieu asserted that both Trump and his attorney could face legal consequences for their actions toward James Comey: “Since NO LEGAL BASIS for this complaint, it would constitute more Obstruction of Justice. Fun fact: WH Counsel for Nixon went to prison.”
It’s all about the mid-term elections now…. Cons want him to go, Dems want him to stay
PhoenixRed:
Ah yes of course. Nothing like self-interest to give a person…..clarity about the company they keep.
Corbyn lost the election, but won the ideological battle between the warring factions within his own party. Imagine if the Centrists within UK Labour had gotten on board with Corbyn instead of undermining and distancing themselves from him throughout the election campaign. They may have been able to form a minority government! It’s a real shame the way the Centrists have behaved. They’ve had their share of candidates and time in the drivers seat and hopefully only just missing out on government motivates them to finally get on board with the status quo, stop acting like children and sabotaging their own party’s chances. But then, you should never underestimate a politicians capacity for petty childishness.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21723193-blair-era-truly-ended-june-8th-labour-party-now-belongs-jeremy-corbyn?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/thelabourpartynowbelongstojeremycorbyn
Wouldn’t it be great if our Premiers and Prime Minister returned essential services to Govt… ?
PhoenixRed
Yep. A slow painful death march.
Couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch!!
C@t
And remember that watergate basically started with a single source “deepthroat”. Bernstein and Woodward could have just gone meh. Cos you know it makes sense
I’m trying to find the right expression here, a house divided against itself cannot stand? Yeah, that’s the one. Smart bloke who said that whoever it was. It’s proving to be true in every Western democracy right now, but I’d probably rephrase it as ‘a party divided against itself cannot be elected to government, except in instances where the opposition appears even more divided’. Doesn’t have the same ring though does it?
The Democrats need to unite and heal factions. Right now they aren’t doing that and they will only gain seats whilst the Republicans continue to appear to be tearing themselves apart.
Labor have united and healed factions and will be elected easily barring any spanner in the works.
Hopefully this is the wake up call UK Labour need to do the same.
Anyway that’s enough ranting about the UK election for me. Sorry, been too caught up in it.
Catmomma – sheesh. There’s no point in this. You consistently miss what I am saying to focus on what you want to say. Say what you want, but don’t pretend you are responding to my points.
My basic point which you continue to miss is that focusing on Trump, rather than the system that delivered Trump, is a distraction.
All the fine words you wrote about people of courage and conviction is aimed – by you! – at only one outcome – tearing down Trump.
Ghandi and Mandela weren’t about getting rid of just the guy out the front at the time – they were looking to change the system for a better future, and that is in fact what I’m arguing for now. Get distracted by tearing down Trump (can you imagine Ghandi or Mandela just arguing that we need to get Trump out and all will be well?) and you lose sight of the things that really matter.
Of course Mueller should do his job and investigate and report. You cited his actions as some example of how really the system is being investigated and improved, and that there’s a real public mood for substantive reform of the system – but it’s not. It’s an example of the existing system thrashing around to maybe, half-arsedly, after-the-fact and years late, correct something that should never have happened in the first place.
Checks and balances are essential, and I’m more than happy for Mueller to do his job. Don’t pretend that checks and balances are all that is needed to prevent or overcome the dysfunction in the system.
Back to the first points:
Because he has no interest in or care about the proper processes that should be observed – he doesn’t like people doing things that aren’t under his control, and even if he genuinely believed there was nothing to find he would feel entitled to just make the annoying people get out of his face and problems go away, because that’s how the rest of his life has worked.
They really are quite independent. Trump may have obstructed justice through his interactions with the FBI even if there was no basis for the FBI’s investigation. Similarly there may be substance to the FBI investigation whether or not Trump is technically within convention and rules to do what he did.
The evidence/judgment on one part is largely independent of the other part.
Again, you’re missing the point I was originally making. There is a political process underway, which Mueller is now part of, and that may result in Trump being taken down. Fine. But the broader implications (and you specifically asked if Mueller was “substantial or insubstantial by way of waking Americans up to the problems with their system”) are minimal, and the focus by you, and many other posters on PB, and many American commentators, solely on taking Trump down are missing the point about the dysfunction of the system.
Theresa May has been very careless.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/10/general-election-2017-theresa-may-team-dup-live#comments
I do agree with this, hence my complaints about the faulty electoral system and the states that continue to legislate to disenfranchise voters. And from the US media I engage with I know I am not alone in this.
But that said, accepting the reality that the US electoral system needs updating, doesn’t mean one cannot also be opposed to the behaviour of President Trump and the allegedly corrupt and criminal company he keeps, thereby bringing the office of president into disrepute.
And then there’s his incompetence and unfitness for office….
Jackol
Hear hear. Well put.
PhoenixRed
I don’t recall if you followed the tweets of Tea Pain USA. He has some interesting updates with respect to the Alfa Bank server in Trump Tower and Spectrum health which is connected to Betty De Vos Education secretary in administration and sister of Eric Prince
Here is thread
https://mobile.twitter.com/TeaPainUSA/status/872649222876803074
OMG Bill Maher appears to be an anti-vaxxer! How can someone who is so accepting of the science on AGW be so dismissive of the science surrounding vaccine preventable diseases?
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a55479/bill-maher-profile/
I take it that people esp the media should not be talking about the President at all, but rather the “system” which elects a President. I mean, was Watergate also a “distraction” from some greater issue?
Someone needs to remind Trump about this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pHF5G4PqBw
Peter Love – if you can quote me saying people should not be talking about something go ahead.
My complaint is we’ve had months and months and months digging up every little detail (and non-detail) on the path to making the case – justified, and not – for deposing Trump.
How much time do people spend talking about how to make the system better, and building some public case for extensive constitutional reform?
I understand it’s a visceral, personal, emotional complaint when it comes to Trump. I feel the same (or at least I think I do; hard to say with this whole isolated mind thing going on) – his presence, behaviour, etc offend me, but I despair at the obsessiveness that characterizes what passes for ‘debate’ on the topic of Trump.
You reference Watergate. Interesting argument. Of course the system that brought us Nixon and Trump remained effectively the same. All the “lessons learnt” from Watergate – and Nixon, of course, was no Trump – and yet here we are…
The Mirror does a nice front page re Conservatives shacking up with the DUP MPs
Jackol,
My basic point which you continue to miss is that focusing on Trump, rather than the system that delivered Trump, is a distraction.
Jackol, I don’t know about you, but I am capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time. That is, focusing on Trump AND the system which produced him. In fact, it is not distracting to focus on Trump, because that focuses the mind on the system that produced him.
Also, it is for others in America to focus on changing their system of Democracy, and, quite frankly, I have heard plenty of people, Bill Maher being just one, saying that there needs to be a shake-up, because, when you have States like California and New York, unable to affect the outcome of a Presidential election the way their weight of numbers suggests they should, then eventually a change will be precipitated.
Of course that change won’t be happening any time soon, but maybe, by focusing on Trump, that change may be hastened.
Sorry, “I know he was a murderer, but there are greater problems with the penal system, so I let him go free..”
Fess
Bill Maher is a weird cat. lol!