BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

As the weeks go by, so do the opinion polls.

The Coalition had relatively good numbers this week from Essential Research, but unchanged ones from Newspoll. The first of these is cancelled out by the fading impact of the Coalition’s improved result from the post-budget poll from Ipsos, so BludgerTrack once again goes nowhere this week. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have the net approval trends improving for Malcolm Turnbull but deteriorating for Bill Shorten, but the opposite is true on preferred prime minister, so take your pick really.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. player one @ #149 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 4:18 pm

    rex douglas @ #135 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 3:15 pm

    player one @ #133 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 3:04 pm

    rex douglas @ #122 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 2:26 pm

    Not sure why anyone would prefer Pence to Trump…?

    No, I can see you simply wouldn’t understand this at all.

    Explain it to me, P1

    If you can’t listen to Trump for even just a few minutes and immediately see the problem, then no, I probably cannot explain it to you.

    P1, it’s always best to have an understanding of the consequences of your actions.
    Not sure people know enough about Pence.

  2. One point about the Finkel report worth repeating is that he reports to COAG, not to the Federal government, so the premiers will receive a copy the same time as Turnbull and Frydenberg.

    A salient point missing from Tingle’s latest article on this (written before the Trump decision), is that Turnbull’s fate on energy policy is in the hands of others – Finkel and how is report is received and Trump.
    As Finkel’s report is to COAG, I wonder how much he is constrained by the Government’s fiat no EIS or carbon price.

    Regarding Trump’s widthdrawl from the Paris agreement, pity the UNFCCC didn’t have the foresight to hold the conference in Russia, no way would Trump withdraw from something called the ‘Moscow Agreement ‘.

  3. P1, going through the rubbish you post and refuting it by telling you why you are wrong is not condescending, it’s telling you how it is. You just don’t like it.

    IIRC, you run an off-grid B&B, and your posts have demonstrated no engineering or accounting ability beyond posting material that others have published.

  4. Hacker, Banker, Soldier, Spy: A Guide to the Key Players in the Trump-Russia Scandal

    Get up to speed on the growing controversy engulfing the presidency.

    Keeping track of the relentless news on the widening Trump-Russia investigation—from revelations about the president’s inner circle to the role of Russian oligarchs and other assorted players—isn’t easy. As part of our project to cover this scandal, we’ve assembled dossiers on the sprawling cast of characters who populate this stranger-than-fiction controversy threatening to engulf the presidency

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/06/russia-trump-putin-scandal-key-players-dossiers

  5. zoomster @ #131 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 2:57 pm

    I read a book several years ago called ‘The Untied States of America’, which contended that the ties which bind the USA together are fairly flimsy, and there’s not much to stop States becoming independent (I can’t remember how it dealt with the Southern secession in this context, but I’m sure it did…)
    Regardless of whether Trump hangs on for one term or two, if he’s not stopped soon, America will lose its dominance in world affairs. (Which may not be a bad thing…)
    The irony of this however — if China replaces America as the dominant world power (and please note the ‘if’), then will that mean Communism has won out after all?

    Only if you regard China as being truly communist.
    It is actually doing a pretty good job of running capitalism, albeit with a single party government calling itself ‘Communist’.

  7. rex douglas @ #151 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 4:23 pm

    P1, it’s always best to have an understanding of the consequences of your actions.
    Not sure people know enough about Pence.

    You are faced with an imbecile with his finger on the nuclear button, and a fairly sensible looking man who can argue rationally and appears amenable to reason, but whose beliefs and ideology you disagree with, with his finger on another such button.

    Both appear to be preparing to push their buttons.

    You have a briefcase full of rational arguments as to why neither one should push the button, but all the documents are longer than one page and you know the imbecile has the attention span of a gnat and is also functionally illiterate.

    You also have a gun with one bullet.

    What do you do? : )

  10. Yet Mr. Trump clings to the same false narrative that congressional Republicans have been peddling for years and that Mr. Trump’s minions, like Mr. Pruitt at the E.P.A. and Ryan Zinke at the Interior Department, are peddling now (Mr. Pruitt to the coal miners, Mr. Zinke to Alaskans) — that environmental regulations are job killers, that efforts to curb carbon dioxide emissions will hurt the economy, that the way forward lies in fossil fuels, in digging still more coal and punching still more holes in the ground in the search for more oil.

    As alternative realities and fake facts go, that argument is something to behold. For one thing, it fails to account for the significant economic benefits of reducing greenhouse gases, avoiding damage to human health and the environment. And it ignores extensive research showing that reducing carbon emissions can in fact drive economic growth. Partly because of investments in cleaner fuels, partly because of revolutionary improvements in efficiency standards for appliances and buildings, carbon dioxide emissions in this country actually fell nearly 12 percent in the last decade, even as the overall economy kept growing. Under Mr. Obama’s supposedly job-killing regulations, more than 11.3 million jobs were created, compared with two million-plus under Mr. Bush’s antiregulatory regime.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/opinion/trump-paris-climate-change-agreement.html?em_pos=large&emc=edit_ty_20170602&nl=opinion-today&nlid=80183539&ref=headline&te=1&_r=0

    Who else can see the US going backwards under Team Trump and with the Republicans controlling the federal parliament? Esp if things continue as they have been.

  11. “Pence is preferable to Trump because he appears to be sane, rational and not a complete imbecile.”

    Only when compared to a 10 year old with ADD.

    There’s an argument to be had that Pence is actually more of a danger than Trump.

  12. Pence is neither sane nor rational except by comparison to Trump (or sadly far swathes of the Republican party these days). He’s a loopy US Republican Evangelical Fundamentalist.

    In terms of Nuclear Holocaust having Pence decide is definitely better than Trump because more sane is better.

    In terms of effectively implementing policy that will have long term devestating effects Pence is far more dangerous than Trump because he’s not going to sink stuff through his own incompetence.

    Its a sucky choice either way unless you’re in a weird thought experiment designed to make one choice clearly superior.

  15. You can add the Liberal and National parties of Australia to the Republicans for not taking climate change seriously, and they’ve paid no political price for this either.

    Indeed. In fact it’s arguable that in both cases they have actually been rewarded politically for their bastardry. But their comeuppance will come soon and they will be seen by future generations as the irresponsible pariahs they really are.

  16. grimace @ #153 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 4:35 pm

    IIRC, you run an off-grid B&B, and your posts have demonstrated no engineering or accounting ability beyond posting material that others have published.

    You, my friend, are a patronizing git. You would be stunned if I told you in which industries I have run multi-million dollar projects, and in which countries. My partner and I run an eco-resort because we are retired.

  17. I’ve said before that I would prefer Pence to Trump because Pence is just your bog-standard Republican asshole hypocrite, who wants to screw over your average person in favour of the wealthy elites and vested interests.

    Trump is all the above except he comes with a dysfunctional chaos that means it isn’t just Americans that have to worry about what he’ll do and say next – the rest of the world has this concern.

    We’ve seen from his tenure in government previously that Pence is more like a GWB in office. And frankly, after the last 4 months I’d happily take another GWB in the WH!

  18. If you had both Trump and Pence with their fingers over the bomb button rational argument and one bullet you tell Trump to see if he can see the gold coin Pence has hidden in his left ear,

    then shoot Mike in the right ear.

  19. Darn:

    I wonder how Greg Hunt fronts a mirror every day after hollowing himself out to a shell by doing the political bidding of the vested interests and the delusionists in his partyroom on climate change.

  21. Good afternoon all,

    The Finkle report is due to be handed to COAG next Friday. Fir a report that is yet to be released a large portion of the MSM appears to have a strong insight into its contents and recommendations.

    Either the government already has a copy and is dripping it out to its lap dogs or the MSM is simply making mass assumptions.

    Phil Coorey, Simon Benson and others seem to think that Finkle will cover Turnbulls arse by recommending a low emissions target as a alternative to a EIS.

    It will be interesting to see what is actually recommended next week.

    Cheers.

  23. The Guardian
    9 mins ·
    The son of an Indian immigrant who came out as gay in 2015 will be the next Irish prime minister, after he was voted leader of the country’s main governing party.

    Guess Ireland will now be off the Court household holiday destinations now.

  24. Catching up
    Thanks Phoenix for Samantha Bee YouTube!
    Thanks fess for Bill Maher!
    Al Pal

    Re James Comey
    I am looking forward to Comey having his say.
    Question is. Will he still be restrained or go full throttle?

  30. zoomster @ #177 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 5:56 pm

    Boer
    Yeah, but it’s all Tony Blair’s fault.

    Blair did much to validate Thatcherism and austerity type policies.
    Added to which he is allegedly a war criminal.
    Blair led Labour down a dead end.
    It is a pity the excellent movie “The Trial of Tony Blair” is not a documentary.

  31. Boerwar:

    Yes there is something about Corbyn that has never resonated with me and I’ve been disappointed that he was elected leader since he was elected leader. But surely a Labour govt will always be better than a conservative govt even with a dud leader?

  32. C
    I would vote for Corbyn and then shift to a country were the leader shows great leadership, a firm commitment to democracy, a consistent commitment to refugees, a consistent stand against dictators, along with a positive vision for collective action…
    Germany.

  35. grimace @ #150 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    don @ #140 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 3:40 pm

    grimace @ #134 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 3:13 pm

    Large scale coal/gas/hydro projects take a long time to get off the ground because there is no “off the shelf” coal/gas/hydro plants sitting around, they are customised to each location.
    For each new plant, there is an engineering pre-feasibility study (looking at different design options), then a feasibility study (detailed proposal around your chosen option) followed by the engineering, procurement, construction and management of the actual plant itself. The major components of a plant are custom made, so are made to order once you are doing the EPCM, and there are a huge number of permits and approvals you need to apply for in order to operate a plant.

    Thanks grimace, much appreciated.

  36. I think we’ve become so brainwashed to expect our politicians to be some kind of ‘magnetic personality’ that most people have lost the ability to appreciate the pragmatic, mundane but effective pretenders to government.

    Trump is an extreme example of larger than life naked emperors.

    We have such unrealistic expectations that many ‘don’t like’ the Corbyns and Shortens of the world for no rational reason when really, they’re likely to be the most effective leaders.

    The fact that people think a religious fundamentalist nutcase like Pence might be acceptable is a case in point.

    Many in Aust voted for Malcolm on the ‘potential’ of a man whose reputation for ‘suave’ gave him more gravitas than any sane analysis of his capabilities would grant.

    In a time-poor world, many increasingly rely on the opinion of others and media to make up their minds. And in a world warped by vested interests, failing to look beneath the surface, or to accept, at face value, the propaganda shit sandwich we are delivered on a daily basis, is it really any wonder those who take the time to actually analyse these people are outnumbered by the bored, ignorant and just plain dumb, hold sway?

  40. The SNP have said they will support Labour on an issue-by-issue basis. Very fortunately for Labour, they appear to have pulled back from proposing an alliance. Labour have said they would attempt to rule alone as a minority Government.

  45. ‘Issue by issue basis’ is basically just a way of saying ‘it’s a coalition, but please don’t refer to it as a coalition’ isn’t it?

  48. The fact that people think a religious fundamentalist nutcase like Pence might be acceptable is a case in point.

    Pence is ‘acceptable’ to the extent that he would be less dangerous and cause less damage while holding the most powerful office in the world than the incumbent. In the same sense, Tony Abbott would be more “acceptable” as PM than Pauline Hanson, Danny Nalliah or Peter Dutton.

  49. Blanket Criticism
    Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 8:15 pm
    ‘Issue by issue basis’ is basically just a way of saying ‘it’s a coalition, but please don’t refer to it as a coalition’ isn’t it?

    Nah. Labour will have none of it. The prospect of a Labour/SNP coalition in 2105 was one of the factors that contributed to the slump in the Labour vote and to the misleading polls, which essentially didn’t ask the right questions of voters. The polls should have asked “Do you prefer a Labour/SNP coalition or a Tory/LD coalition?”

  50. The fact that people think a religious fundamentalist nutcase like Pence might be acceptable is a case in point.

    He’s not acceptable in any way shape or form except when compared to the incumbent POTUS the US currently has.

    Frankly, after what we’ve seen the last 4 months I can’t believe you’d disagree with people who think Trump is unfit for duty and needs to go. Even if this means VP Pence gets the nod.

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