BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

As the weeks go by, so do the opinion polls.

The Coalition had relatively good numbers this week from Essential Research, but unchanged ones from Newspoll. The first of these is cancelled out by the fading impact of the Coalition’s improved result from the post-budget poll from Ipsos, so BludgerTrack once again goes nowhere this week. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have the net approval trends improving for Malcolm Turnbull but deteriorating for Bill Shorten, but the opposite is true on preferred prime minister, so take your pick really.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. Frednk.

    I’m not actually keeping track of predictions of which side will win the election.

    I’m keeping a score on who the traitors to the Labour/Labor cause are by constantly slagging off Mr Corbyn and thereby acting as Tory cheerleaders.

    I’ve put you down in the pro-Corbyn camp.

  2. EXCLUSIVE: U.S. special counsel expands probe to include Michael Flynn’s dealings with Turkey

    Robert Mueller, the special counsel investigating possible ties between the Trump election campaign and Russia, is expanding his probe to include a grand jury investigation into former national security adviser Michael Flynn, three sources told Reuters.

  3. Putin Tries To Save Trump But Ends Up Making Him Look Guilty Of Collusion

    At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Vladimir Putin tried to bail Trump out but made the president look guilty of colluding with the Russians.

    Putin used the same talking points that the Trump administration uses, and Republican defenders of Trump in Congress are using.

    Putin is only digging the hole deeper for Trump, as his denials perfectly match the denials that are coming out of the White House.

  4. James Comey Will Get His Revenge In Public Because Trump Couldn’t Keep His Mouth Shut

    Former White House Special Counsel Greg Craig explains that Trump lost the ability to claim executive privilege when he opened his mouth and talked about his conversations with Comey.

    A big reason why James Comey is going to be able to publicly testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee about his conversations with Trump is that the President had publicly smear the former FBI director instead of keeping his mouth shut.

    Donald Trump’s biggest problem continues to be Donald Trump.

  5. White House Admits Trump Made His Decision On Paris Deal Like A Child

    EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt told reporters at the daily press briefing that Trump made his decision on pulling the US out of the Paris climate accord based on whether it was “good or bad.”

    The man leading the United States is a child trapped in a 70-year-old’s body. No matter how they try to dress it up by claiming that Trump is the “ultimate decider,” they can’t hide the fact that he makes decisions like a child.

  6. Scarborough fingers Bannon as leaker: He’s been ‘bragging’ he would sideline Kushner on Russia

    Morning Joe co-host Joe Scarborough on Friday revealed that some of his sources within the White House have hinted that White House chief political strategist Steve Bannon is behind some of the damaging leaks against Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner.

    While discussing the latest problems facing Kushner, Scarborough said that people in the White House have told him that Bannon this past April boasted that he wouldn’t have to worry about Kushner much longer thanks to soon-to-be-revealed bombshells about his undisclosed meeting with a Russian bank official.

  7. Lawmakers ask whether looming debt left Jared Kushner vulnerable to Russian influence

    Real estate analysts told ABC News that Jared Kushner’s first major acquisition, a Fifth Avenue office tower signifying his family’s move from New Jersey into Manhattan real estate, is shouldering a $1.3 billion in loans coming due in two years, and it is not bringing in sufficient rental income. An attempt by Kushner to broker a deal with a Chinese company to refinance and redevelop the building fell through shortly after the election.

  8. immacca

    Downer has just nothing to say that isnt simple fluff and bullshit. Been given her lines and no mental flexibility to even modify them depending on what she’s asked.

    It was fun to watch. She just reeled out lines that she’s learnt. The ‘Get-Up’ guy blitzed her.

    She probably got to be on the Drum because no one else at the IPA could be faarked doing it late on a Friday afternoon.

    I’d think some one at the IPA will be thinking they should have made sure John Barron was on before sending her.

  9. PhRD

    have hinted that White House chief political strategist Steve Bannon is behind some of the damaging leaks against Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner.

    That ‘suggestion’ has legs, I think.

  10. In Russian, almost all first names have common shortened versions you can use if you are familiar with the person. The shortened Russian equivelant of Donald is
    Donaat, which is often Anglicised to Donut.

    Which is a roundabout way of saying that Donut shouldn’t tweet so much.

    “President Donald Trump’s Twitter feed – packed with more than 35,000 time-stamped missives dating to 2009 – offers a treasure trove of evidence for Special Counsel Robert Mueller and his growing team of investigators, according to lawyers and veterans of past White House scandals.

    Like emails, handwritten notes or transcribed Oval Office conversations, the @realdonaldtrump account gives investigators a detailed timeline of Trump’s thoughts and opinions – including where they might differ from official accounts – and can also be used to establish intent, which can be critical in a criminal investigation.

    Trump is not a target of the FBI or congressional probes, but his tweets could all be used by investigators as they seek to establish whether the president and his associates are being truthful in the explanations they give under oath about the nature of contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian officials. Trump’s tweets could ultimately cause problems for the people around Trump, including aides who sent messages under Trump’s account.

    “They’re a gold mine,” said Peter Zeidenberg, who served on the Justice Department’s special prosecution team during the George W. Bush-era Valerie Plame Wilson investigation and now works as a partner at Arent Fox. “They help paint a picture.”

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Some weekend reading for you!

    Peter Martin looks at talk of recession.
    Ross Gittins says we’ll have one sooner or later.
    Mark Kenny looks at each of the Treasurers that have presided over our record run.
    Michael Gordon says that we shouldn’t just bask in this success but move on to the fairness debate we have to have.
    Peter Hartcher on the downside of unbroken success.
    Paul McGeough writes that Trump’s climate change withdrawal could take right up to the next presidential election.
    Richard Denniss laments that Trump is more honest about climate change inaction than Turnbull. The article concludes with “Trump’s clear repudiation of the US’s commitment to tackle climate change and Turnbull’s cynical pretence of support for climate action both point to the same obvious conclusion. Until the world stops building new coal mines and stops building new coal-fired power stations, the world’s emissions will continue to grow. Everything else is just a cover story for our failure to act.
    Is “disappointing” the best Turnbull can come up with with respect to the Trump withdrawal?

  12. Section 2 . . .

    Phil Coorey says that Turnbull is entering the danger zone when it comes to climate change action.. Google.
    And Kathryn Murphy says that Turnbull has to prove his mettle by pushing through a climate and energy policy – despite party room sniping – that Labor will support.
    Paul Bongiorno pulls apart Frydenberg’s “carbon capture pipe dream”.
    Donald Trump sets the world on a collision course for disaster by pulling the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Accord writes Lauren McCauley in The Independent Australia.,10358
    Johnathan Freedland writes that the world took Trump as a comedy but it has turned into a horror show.
    Michael Koziol on the fight Dutton is facing in his own seat as progressives gear up.
    Has a cocky Theresa May shot herself in the foot?
    Gay Alcon on News Corp’s unending campaign against the ABC. She says the ABC cannot pander to these right wing attacks.
    Britain is caught in a trap of the prime minister’s making: between a Europe it rejects and an America it should reject. Which is the real ally?

  13. Section 3 . . .

    From pinot to porridge. Kate McClymont feasts on the sentencing remarks on Ian Macdonald.
    As does fellow investigative journalist Michaela Whitbourn.
    Centrelink’s CEO Kathryn Campbell got a bit desperate in trying to justify its appalling and worsening, record of unanswered and long waiting calls. It’s all the fault of smart phones apparently. To my simple mind it is a classic case of load greatly exceeding capacity by a considerable margin.
    Laurie Oakes says that thanks to sound bites politicians have lost the art of making great speeches. Google.
    And Paula Matthewson says that it’s no wonder people aren’t listening to our politicians any more.
    Peter FitzSimons on Margaret Court and other things.
    Julia Baird has penned a good piece on the while issue underneath Margaret Court’s utterings.
    A lesson in trickledown economics.,10357
    Once seen as a journal of intellectual weight, today’s Quadrant has gone off-leash to become a ranting voice of the reactionary right. Mike Seccombe has a good look at what it has become.

  14. Section 4 . . .

    Ross Gittins looks at the latest budget where for the first time, Treasury has been obliged to reveal clearly exactly how much the feds have been, are, and expect to be, spending on capital works for the 14 years from 2007-08 to 2020-21
    Sean Nicholls says that Gladys Berejiklian will really have her work cut out to tix up the fires services levy mess.
    Simon Benson writes “The electricity industry would have to meet a new low-emissions target that favoured only clean coal-fired power sourced through carbon capture and storage (CCS) and delivered greater subsidies for gas and renewables, under recommendations to be put to the Turnbull government next week.” Stand by for some fun! Google.
    The Guardian continues to dig up stuff on Nauru that exposes Border Force and Dutton.
    Merkel steps up in EU and Germany; Trump returns to family crisis; More Australian troops to be sent to Afghanistan. Hamish McDonald in The Saturday Paper.
    Elizabeth Farrelly does not think that moving planning power from councils to the state government has merit.
    The Weekend Australian has an article which puts the case for assisted dying. Google.
    Garry Linnell tells why he won’t be giving to the Salvos (and many other organisations) this year.
    Trump’s scrawny, screechy mouthpiece, Kellyanne Conway, refuses to say whether or not he believes in climate change. I don’t know why the networks keep having the useless woman on.

  15. Section 5 . . .

    World leaders have condemned President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate change accord. French President Emmanuel Macron led the charge, claiming Mr Trump’s decision would harm American interests and its citizens.
    China has committed to meet its Paris goals while Trump kicks an own goal.
    In a sign of investigation’s breadth, special counsel Robert Mueller to consider questions over Flynn’s work for a Turkish businessman. There’s action everywhere around Camp Trump.
    It might be slow in coming, but the market is starting to price in the possibility of lower official interest rates in the months ahead says Stephen Koukoulas.
    The financial cost of dying. Google.
    Ireland now has a gay prime minister – as well as its youngest ever.
    Perth Muslim students attending a career expo at the Perth Convention and Exhibition Centre were allegedly forced to leave after onlookers felt threatened by their “attire” because of Manchester’s suicide bombing. What a disgrace!
    Bunnings in Australia has no plans to go online for sales.
    Golf courses in Melbourne are poised for a shake-up with the Andrews government launching an inquiry into land use and development of the lucrative land holdings.

  16. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner

    LeFevre on the new style of budget.

    Alan Moir with Trump’s go it alone effort.

    Something similar from David Rowe.

    And from David Pope.
    Jon Kudelka has Trump celebrating his withdrawal but having some trouble with carbon dioxide.
    Mark Knight and the Ugly American.
    Funny work from Broelman here.

    More from Broelman. This time on the police response to the Malaysian Airlines incident.

  17. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
    I was just reading the WashPo account of the machinations and deliberations in the weeks leading up to Trump’s predictable decision to leave the Climate Change Accord:

    And a couple of things stood out to me.

    Firstly, as this argument was put to Trump:
    If the United States pulled out, what would be the message to countries in Africa that could suffer most from global warming and nations like Fiji that are drowning under rising sea levels?
    Why didn’t someone think about putting it in terms that would resonate with the old buzzard, such as, ‘Climate Change will see Guam, the Marshall Islands or the island of Diego Garcia disappear into the ocean, thus imperilling our military assets’.

    Also, when I read this:
    Hearing smack-talk from the Frenchman(Macron) 31 years his junior irritated and bewildered Trump, aides said.

    A few days later, Trump got his revenge. He proclaimed from the Rose Garden, “I was elected to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris.”

    All I could think about was those old men who think wisdom automatically comes with age, when all they are proving by their actions is that some of them simply go backwards at a million miles an hour to their petulant childhood of zero self-control and self-awareness and self-centredness. A million miles AWAY from maturity and wisdom.

    And, yes, I am aware some old women can be petulant as well, but generally don’t carry on as much about threats to their authority by younger bucks. 🙂

  18. Lots of ‘they’re all the same’ garbage in the MSM this weekend. The fallback position whenever the Liberal Party is really in trouble.

  19. Morning all, thanks BK for today’s reading.

    Things are not so rosy among the federal WA Libs these days:

    Cormann is soon to become Senate leader, but is expected to quit politics if the Liberals lose office.

    Porter, who many believe fancies himself a future prime minister, is in strife in his seat of Pearce.

    Ever since Porter got the fright of his life at last year’s poll, when his healthy margin was cut to 3.6 per cent, speculation has been rife that he is looking for another electorate.

    He has flat out denied scouting around for a safer seat, but that hasn’t stopped people paying extra attention to his movements around Perth.

    Doubts have also been raised over the electoral future of 64-year-old Ken Wyatt in his seat of Hasluck.

    And then there is the WA party’s most senior and high-profile member — Julie Bishop.

    Abbott has not been subtle in his complaints about his former deputy and has found support among the more conservative members of the national Liberal Party.
    Bishop’s fortunes are closely tied to Turnbull’s.

    If, as polls suggest, the Turnbull Government loses the next election there appears little chance of Bishop having a leadership role in the next Liberal opposition.

    So, a party that has just been pummelled at the State level is facing an emboldened Federal Opposition while being led by a Prime Minister who has yet to resonate with West Australian voters.

  20. From last night …

    libertarian unionist @ #858 Friday, June 2, 2017 at 11:29 pm

    “Many times when pushed, P1 has referred to renewables/storage as being more than 15 years off. I do have a long memory.”

    Well if that’s the case, I stand corrected.

    It is not the case, of course. I have never said any such thing, because I don’t believe that. It is merely another classic case of CC either deliberately misrepresenting – or possibly failing to understand – what I have actually said. But of course CC never provides any instances, so It’s hard to be sure which. I recall referring to “15 years” as the window in which we must act to avoid hitting 450 PPM C02 – and if we do nothing else other than listen to the ravings of the solar warriors we may hit it even sooner. I may have referred to “15 years” in other contexts, but not the one CC suggests I have repeated “many times”.

    I think I will go back to ignoring CC for a while. We agree on the necessity for an EIS. That’s enough.

  21. Will Trump block Comey testimony? White House does not know yet

    White House officials said on Friday they did not know yet whether President Donald Trump will seek to block former FBI Director James Comey from testifying to Congress next week, a move that could spark a political backlash.

    U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded the Russian government sought to influence the U.S. election in Trump’s favor, a charge Russia has denied. Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, said on Thursday some Russians may have acted on their own.

    Trump, who has raised doubts about the U.S. agencies’ findings and denounced the continuing Russia probes, has denied any collusion.

  22. Thanks as always BK. You do a sterling job.

    I read the Fitz link, and it occurred to me that I can’t work out what the big deal is about Tiger Woods driving under the influence is.

    My take is that in Oz, it would be very minor news indeed. But for Woods in the US, it is supposed to be the end of his career. I would have thought cheating on his wife and family was far more important than DUI.

  23. Swampy – But for a methodological tweak, IPSOS Mori would have been a 3 point gap! If you then add the SNP to the Labor column (they’re certainly not Tory) Labor could well be a bit ahead.

    And meanwhile the Tories bang on about the IRA and whether Corbyn will fire nuclear weapons. Sure, that’ll work.

    When a Tory grandee came out last week and braced everybody for the possibility of Labor going ahead in the polls, I though the Tory internals must be terrifying.

  24. Kushner and Ivanka Trump ‘care what beautiful people think’ and see Bannon as ‘a man with dirty fingernails’

    The warring factions of Donald Trump’s White House are going all out, The New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza reports.

    Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump reportedly tried (unsuccessfully) to wield their power and influence over the president by convincing him to stay in the Paris climate agreement. With Trump’s decision on Thursday to withdraw from that agreement, it’s clear chief White House strategist Steve Bannon—who urged the president to break the Obama-era pledge—is back in the president’s good graces.

    “They care about being well received in the Upper West Side cocktail parties,” the source continued. “They view Steve as a man with dirty fingernails, with some weird, crazy, extremist philosophy they don’t think is in the best interest of the President. With all respect to them, they don’t understand how Trump got elected. They don’t understand the forces behind it, they don’t understand the dynamics of the situation, and they certainly don’t understand his appeal and the people who voted for him—they can’t understand it.”

  25. Special Counsel expands Trump-Russia probe to include Manafort, may expand to include AG Sessions

    Special Counsel Robert Mueller has expanded the investigation into the Trump campaign to included Paul Manafort and may expand to include Attorney General Jeff Sessions

    Sessions has come under scrutiny for a series of undisclosed meetings with Russian officials, including Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak.

  26. Antonbruckner.
    The Ipsos-Mori poll was tweaked for likely voting. If the raw figures are used, Labour is ahead.

    Labour. 43% (+6%)
    Conserv. 40% (-6%)

    If UK had compulsory voting………

  27. Something special for Pegasus to ponder from Phil Coorie. She likes selectively quoting from MSM articles.

    The Greens refusal in 2009 to back Labor’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme because it was not perfect, spelled the end of Kevin Rudd, chewed up Julia Gillard and fuelled the rise of Tony Abbott and the destructive era of opposition at all costs.

    Almost a decade later, Australia still has no meaningful policy to tackle climate change and certainly nothing approaching bipartisan support.

  28. “The Ipsos-Mori poll was tweaked for likely voting”
    Young Britons seem to care more about getting the Tories out than they ever have – voter registrations have surged. The actual voting day vote for Labour might be understated.

  29. Swampy – Not quite. But that’s even more interesting. It shows how vital turn-out will be. I can’t help thinking that, now voters are really being offered a serious alternative (not just fake Tory) Labor turnout will be big. Further, it appears, according to Mori/IPSOS that Labor has more “definitely decided” than the Tories. That is a huge change.

    Definitely Decided / May Change Mind
    Overall 78 / 20
    Cons 75 / 23
    Lab 76 / 21
    Overall 63 / 36
    Cons 78 / 21
    Lab 56 / 43

  30. America, Get Ready for the Comey Show

    Former FBI director James Comey is scheduled to testify before a public Senate hearing next week, where he will reportedly speak about President Trump’s attempts to end the Russia investigation. How damning do you expect his testimony to be?

    As I wrote at the time, Comey’s firing may possibly have marked the beginning of the end of the Trump administration. That prospect has only increased since. Trump’s dwindling and bickering White House coterie hoped his trip abroad would change the subject from Russian collusion — a false high that was sustained for nine days by the president’s ostensible new “discipline” in reading from TelePrompters and abstaining from Twitter. Once he was back home, that bubble burst faster than you can say “covfefe.”

    “It’s clear that neither Trump nor anyone around him has a clue about how to stanch the bleeding.”

  31. Today’s PvO:

    If Turnbull remains unpopular, but within striking distance were a more popular leader ready to be installed into the prime ministership, it would be incumbent on him to step aside. There would be no ignominy in doing so in the second half of next year.

    Three years as Prime Minister, having won an election (just) most thought was lost, and thereafter legislating the policy that constituted the double-dissolution trigger is a legacy Turnbull could hang his hat on. Modern politics is tougher and faster-paced than in years gone by.

    Turnbull is in his 60s and could even use his authority right before his departure to give Liberals a free vote on same-sex marriage, adding to his legacy with a policy change he is passionate about. Small sections of the Liberal right would complain, but most (including factional leader Peter Dutton) would be quietly relieved the issue is off the agenda.

    So who should Turnbull hand over to? Surely Julie Bishop is the only viable option. She has been a long-term deputy, remains popular on the backbench and has the potential to help with fundraising ahead of a difficult election.

    Goes on to say Dutton would be deputy leader, and could request a new super ministry around border protection, and that Abbott would return to the front bench as foreign minister.

  32. I like PvO’s thinking here –

    So who should Turnbull hand over to? Surely Julie Bishop is the only viable option.

    And she’d get slaughtered!

  33. PVO in lalaland, though it has been my dream for a long time to see Julie take on PM and lose the election and her seat when the spotlight shows how incompetent she is.

  34. RM – If they wanted to offer it to Julie, they’d have to send out a search party. There is no way she would want the job. She knows she’s not up to it and prefers shopping anyway.

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