BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

As the weeks go by, so do the opinion polls.

The Coalition had relatively good numbers this week from Essential Research, but unchanged ones from Newspoll. The first of these is cancelled out by the fading impact of the Coalition’s improved result from the post-budget poll from Ipsos, so BludgerTrack once again goes nowhere this week. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have the net approval trends improving for Malcolm Turnbull but deteriorating for Bill Shorten, but the opposite is true on preferred prime minister, so take your pick really.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. Watched “King Arthur” which I quite enjoyed (hubby mightn’t have appreciated ‘Wonder Woman’…)

    On the way up, heard an interesting analysis of Adani from someone on the ABC. Basically Adani only has agreements with other contractors, not contracts; at least one of the power plants they run in India using imported coal is running at a loss and has been for sometime, and has appealed to the government to bail them out, because imported coal is far too expensive to be competitive; information provided to various authorities (such as stockmarkets) doesn’t seem nearly as optimistic as the company’s press releases; it is less and less likely that any bank will touch the project with a bargepole.

  2. As a regular lurker on PB I would like to see Boerwar be able to post again in Australia as I enjoy his thoughts. Good luck with it BW!

  3. Greensborough Growler

    I never said there was a decline. I said that you can’t project an increase from those statistics, and that website that Player One posted before also hows a flat line in the United States. A 4.5% increase from the absolute lowest point on the disaster does not mean there will be growth in the future – if there is more capacity coming online then it will grow. I’m not exactly saying anything controversial here, am I??

  4. goudengans @ #1561 Tuesday, June 6th, 2017 – 11:09 pm

    Greensborough Growler

    I never said there was a decline. I said that you can’t project an increase from those statistics, and that website that Player One posted before also hows a flat line in the United States. A 4.5% increase from the absolute lowest point on the disaster does not mean there will be growth in the future – if there is more capacity coming online then it will grow. I’m not exactly saying anything controversial here, am I??

    Agree, you’re not saying much of any consequence.

  5. Bemused – “Dashtyari’s actions are insignificant compared to others I could name on the other side of politics. Dashtyari was open about things.”

    Thankfully ASIO do not see his actions as insignificant.

  6. How true. The NY Times dawn patrol email:

    In two days, when James Comey is scheduled to testify to Congress, the country’s attention will again turn to President Trump’s attempts to interfere with the legal system.

    Those attempts have become a major theme of his presidency. And they’re not only about Russia. Together, they represent a fairly comprehensive rejection of the rule of law — the notion that consistent principles, rather than raw power, hold sway in a society.

    I think it’s important to step back from the day-to-day noise that Trump generates and consider the many ways he has rejected the rule of law. I’ve devoted my column this week to that subject and focus on five Trump administration themes:

    1. Politicizing law enforcement
    2. Undermining judges
    3. Setting separate standards for Trump officials
    4. Denying the full benefits of citizenship to some Americans
    5. Redefining truth

  7. I Googled “World Energy Sources” which showed oil as the largest source, followed by coal and the gas. Those three currently dominate other sources by a very large margin. Nuclear and renewables are both minor contributors.
    Forward projections show that gas will pass coal in around 2025 and renewables will approach coal around 2040. However oil and gas continue to be the largest contributors out to 2040.
    Nuclear remains small throughout the period although showing growth.

    Source http://www.worldenergy.org

  8. greensborough growler @ #1562 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 11:10 pm

    goudengans @ #1561 Tuesday, June 6th, 2017 – 11:09 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    I never said there was a decline. I said that you can’t project an increase from those statistics, and that website that Player One posted before also hows a flat line in the United States. A 4.5% increase from the absolute lowest point on the disaster does not mean there will be growth in the future – if there is more capacity coming online then it will grow. I’m not exactly saying anything controversial here, am I??

    Agree, you’re not saying much of any consequence.

    I’d say that there was plenty of consequence goudengans post.

    P1 was making an assertion nuclear power was growing and facts presented do not prove or disprove that assertion.

    The facts presented show a return to pre disaster levels, there was no information on new and retired nuclear capacity to indicate that this increase will be ongoing.

  9. cud chewer

    I think the best estimate I’ve seen is for a Talgo class vehicle (200Km/hr diesel tilt train)

    I noticed you were referring to diesel trains in your posts. All the fast trains I’ve travelled on (e.g. TGV, Shinkansen, ICE) are electric. Are you specifying diesel just because the tracks aren’t electrified, or for some other reason? If the former, is it worth electrifying them in the long term. Obviously there are some tracks it will never be worth doing (e.g. the Adelaide–Darwin railway, the Trans-Australia railway).

  10. World Energy Issues Monitor 2017 – Exposing the New Energy Realities

    As the Grand Energy Transition fast becomes a reality, the minds of global energy leaders are becoming increasingly focussed on long term trends that threaten existing economic and business models rather than concerns about short term risks.

    Issues that will dictate the speed and the breadth of the energy transition rise to the top of the global energy agenda as government and corporate take stock of the impacts and opportunities that arise as the world goes down a path of increased decarbonisation. This includes regional integration, climate framework, electric storage, renewables, energy efficiency, electricity prices and economic growth.
    https://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2017/world-energy-issues-monitor-2017/

  11. BC,

    I noticed you were referring to diesel trains in your posts. All the fast trains I’ve travelled on (e.g. TGV, Shinkansen, ICE) are electric. Are you specifying diesel just because the tracks aren’t electrified, or for some other reason? If the former, is it worth electrifying them in the long term. Obviously there are some tracks it will never be worth doing (e.g. the Adelaide–Darwin railway, the Trans-Australia railway).

    Just to explain a little further. The end game would be full HSR from Olympic Park to Broadmeadow/Gosford/Tarro. This would be an electric train.

    The interim fast train requires a bypass track from Cockle Creek to Morisset and its a lot cheaper to just build two non-electrified standard gauge tracks for this purpose.

    There are options for the interim fast train service to be an electric traction train with a generator car (Talgos have this option). There is also the possibility of an electric traction train with battery. The climb to Mt. Kuring-gai requires in the order of 200KWhr of energy. A 500KWhr battery pack is equivalent to half a dozen Teslas. Its easily hidden.

    Electrification of the tunnel from Hawkesbury River to Mt. Kuring-gai ultimately depends on the requirements of future freight trains and the economics of ventilation/safety of life features. If future freight end being hybrids with a retractable pantograph then there is a good argument to electrify the tunnel. However, the configuration of the overhead wiring may change to accommodate double stacked container freight, once the interim passenger service has been replaced by HSR.

    To give you a better feel for the end game. High speed trains will service Olympic Park, Hornsby, Woy Woy, Gosford, Morisset, Glendale, Broadmeadow and Tarro. In other words all the major trip generators. A conventional electric train (very likely one of the currently on order intercity replacement trains) will operate all stops between Newcastle interchange and Hawkesbury River. There being no passenger service between Hawkesbury River and Cowan. The purpose of the conventional train service will be to serve minor stations and to feed the HSR network.

    Also in the end game, north of Morisset, the HSR corridor will have four tracks. Two of those for HSR. The other two will see use only for freight so that’s why there’s not an incentive to electrify these tracks. North of Wakefield, there is the option to extend the two freight tracks as far as Hexham. Again, shared corridor but quite separate tracks.

  12. Briefly

    The poll for The Times put Labour on 41 per cent ahead of the SNP’s 40 per cent among 18-24-year-olds.

    Swamprat will declare this an English Press conspiracy.

  13. Damn, my posts are being truncated.
    What was cut off was:
    If true it says that the English leader ofLabour is more popular among young scots than the right wing idiots that run SLab.

  14. Among the predictions…

    Chart P2 shows the expected map for 2017 which can be compared with 2015 & 2010. The Lib Dems would be wiped out in England with both Tim Farron and Nick Clegg losing their seats to the Conservatives & Labour respectively. The Conservatives would also unseat the leader of the SNP in the Commons by taking the seat of Moray.

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