ReachTEL: 51-49 to LNP in Queensland

A new state poll from Queensland suggests the Labor government is continuing to struggle in the face of ongoing strong support for One Nation.

The Sunday Mail today carries a big sample ReachTEL automated phone poll of state voting intention in Queensland, tailored to produce samples of a bit over 1000 for each of South East Queensland, North Queensland and the remainder of the state (3636 respondents overall), notwithstanding that the first of these accounts for by 63% of the state’s 2015 election voting population, assuming we’re using the same definitions. The result is a good deal worse for Labor than the last published state poll, which was conducted by Galaxy in late April, with primary votes after exclusion of the 6.7% undecided at 31.9% for Labor, 35.3% for the Liberal National Party, 17.0% for One Nation and 9.4% for the Greens.

The report cites primary vote swings against Labor of 13% in north Queensland, 9% in the regional remainder and 5.5% in the south-east, compared with respective results of 4.3%, 7% and 6.6% for the LNP – although I’m having a particularly hard time accounting for a definition of north Queensland consistent with such a big swing against Labor compared with the 2015 result. The headline two-party figure, based on respondent-allocated preferences, is 51-49 in favour of the LNP, compared with 52-48 to Labor in the Galaxy poll. A graphic in the report identifies a 51.5-48.5 in favour of Labor on the question “which of the following two parties would you preference higher” – this would be the respondent-allocated preference prompt for those who chose a minor party. Given the shaky record of respondent allocated preferences, it would be very difficult to predict how an election would play out in practice with non-major party support at the levels indicated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

22 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. Is this the real reason for Gina Paluszczuk’s seeming cave in on the Adani loan? I hope not. The cave in will only cost more votes in the south east, while not saving more conservative electorates. And it will damage federal Labor. And the planet.

  2. Queensland Labor really needs a plan to replace Paluszczuk.
    Probably too late to do it before the next election, but this Adani situation has show she has poor political skills, she didnt read the situation right, she did everything wrong…
    Its a harsh reality, but she became the leader when there where only 7 ALP MP’s, she went from the leader of 6 to the leader of 41.
    It might be Labor has to take her to the next election, and hope not to get wiped out, but there is a lesson there for the party in planning how to deal with success.

  3. “Queensland Labor really needs a plan to replace Paluszczuk.
    Probably too late to do it before the next election, but this Adani situation has show she has poor political skills, she didnt read the situation right, she did everything wrong…
    Its a harsh reality, but she became the leader when there where only 7 ALP MP’s, she went from the leader of 6 to the leader of 41.
    It might be Labor has to take her to the next election, and hope not to get wiped out, but there is a lesson there for the party in planning how to deal with success.”

    Bug 1 firstly Anastasia is Queensland Labor’s biggest asset because of her individual popularity. You’re suggestion Labor will be ‘wiped out’ is an exaggeration considering the best the LNP can hope for is a minority government formed with One Nation. The more rumblings have been from Tim Nicholls leadership in the media then Anastasia.

    Also Queensland Labor has strong success since Wayne Goss took over as leader since the late 80’s in terms of leadership stability by only having four leaders for the last thirty years. You’re suggestion Labor should look to replace Anastasia comes from the text of Mark Arbib of federal Labor where they change leaders like they change underwear. Sorry Labor’s been down that path before, and the leadership is not a play thing where you change leaders whenever a unfavorable poll gets published.

  4. CPV is back in play. What are inner city voters going to do, preference another Adan-supporting party with another?
    Annastacia is a good leader and a asset to the party. She led the ALP to victory after being reduced to seven seats. Any talk of replacement is madness.
    My guess is that this is attributed to the recent cabinet division on Adani.
    What’s clear is that NQ NEEDS jobs. Telling miners to go and retrain does not cut it. Job creation must be a priority, or ON & LNP will do a clean sweep of regional and northern seats.

  5. Knifing someone who took you from 7 to 41 is generally a bad idea in Australia. Its a super bad idea in Queensland. We have a single house that functions like the federal lower house. That means that the leader is super important and effectively defines the party since there’s little compromise done with other parties.

    Queensland Labor would need her to voluntarily retire to safely replace her. And few of the traditional excuses would seem plausible. Also I can’t think of anyone they’d have to put up to replace her. The other commonly heard names are fairly controversial (read hated by the Courier Mail and FM Radio).

  6. I can think of one reason why NQ may be swinging so strongly against Labor – Adani.
    The fact that Palaszczuk’s so strongly pro-Adani doesn’t much matter to a lot of these voters, at least partly because Federal Labor is trying to have two bob each way. Basically, the NQers who support Adani back the Coalition; those who oppose it aren’t much impressed by Palaszczuk’s groveling toward Adani.

  7. Having said that, if anyone’s entertaining thoughts of organizing a coup against Palaszczuk…forget about it.
    1) Disunity is death, especially in politics;
    2) She’s still personally popular;
    3) It wouldn’t solve the core dilemma Qld Labor is facing: Are they pro-Adani or pro-environment?

  8. Qld Labor is reaping the bitter harvest of being Tory Lite. Instead of standing boldly and articulately for a compelling progressive vision of public affairs, these wishy-washy centrists remain frightened of their own shadow. They second-guess themselves, they accept conservative framing of major issues, and they are abdicating the responsibilities of leadership.

  9. You’d want your head read as a Laborite plotting a politically motivated coup over Adani at state level in QLD for the political good of Labor. There’s about 3 seats (Noosa, North Brisbane around New Farm, South Brisbane around the Gabba) within theoretical striking distance for the Greens and one of them (Noosa) is LNP vs Green already and thus not your problem. Avoiding losing suburban/regional seats to the LNP / PHON is the better political play on just about every conceivable level.

  10. People reading too much into this poll . Plus galaxy > reachtel . Since rise of one nation Reachtel has been skewing against Labor. Remember 50 – 50 2pp poll in WA 2 weeks out of elextion that turned out to be 55 -45 ?

  11. Greens are not a chance this election of getting a seat. The soft Green vote are more likely to vote Labor with the threat of a One Nation/LNP coalition worrying progressive voters.

    Also Nicholas suggesting Labor is ‘Tory lite’ is so simplistic. QLD Labor faces two pressures 1) Unemployment in the regions where voters are turning off both major parties where there a Labor seats at risk in (North Queensland, Central Queensland, and Wide Bay) 2) Unions who have workers who work in particular mines who need mines to stay open for employment.

    Nicholas suggesting Labor is all about just crawling to the mining companies hasn’t taken into account the other pressures QLD Labor faces in the debate with Adani and also the third stage expansion of Acland.


    Modelling The Queensland Election Off The Senate Election And Polling
    With big thanks to Alex Jago for help with data, this is my attempt to determine what the Senate election told us about the possible distribution of PHON and Green support and about possible target seats for both. I find that at PHON’s current level of support they would probably not win many seats.

    Regarding Adani: the votes supposedly lost by Labor in comparing the Galaxy with the ReachTEL are going mostly to the Greens and Others rather than to the LNP. So if cutting Adani adrift to save inner city seats from the Greens was the game and there is a backlash against this potentially job-destroying behaviour in the regions then why are the primaries not going to the LNP?

    The other thing here is that, as I pointed out in my previous Queensland article ( respondent preferences are suggesting an extremely miserly preference share for Labor, even worse than in 2012.

  13. Labor only has one pressure, to create jobs, and you cannot find Jobs in mining!

    So being LNP lite goes back to betraying what Labor stand for.

    Meanwhile in QLD I hear prices go up for basic things, and unlimited water license is a bad idea given what we know about Climate Change.

    So Labor is not focusing on what they do best, but trying to out do far right politics!

  14. As annoyed as I am about Paluszczuk’s weakness on Adani, it is the right wingers in her cabinet pushing her in that direction who deserve most of the blame. Treasurer Curtis Pitt recently contradicted his leader in public, and Hinchcliffe. Was a disaster as transport minister. The AWU still seeths over not having control.

  15. No way ALP can win the next state election, they will lose a lot of support from volunteers and donations from this Adani decision. They will inspire a protest vote that will go to ‘anyone else’.

    Even if the Libs would have supported it they will still get support because of this decision because they represent a fresh start (and not Newman)

    Giving Adani a tax holiday, whilst Gupta gets his cut off the top through a tax haven demonstrates Labor has no morals and no respect for the state, the country or the planet.


  16. Adani saying they are proceeding doesn’t really move the construction of the mine along very much. I’ll get interested if they come up with the billions they need to invest before the intention becomes a reality.

  17. ^That’s what they said when the ALP went into the election with 9 seats, look how that turned out.

    Timing is absolutely critical and possibly the best advantage the ALP has before four year terms kick in. Do people really want to risk a ON/LNP minority government? I wouldn’t put my money on it.

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