BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

As the weeks go by, so do the opinion polls.

The Coalition had relatively good numbers this week from Essential Research, but unchanged ones from Newspoll. The first of these is cancelled out by the fading impact of the Coalition’s improved result from the post-budget poll from Ipsos, so BludgerTrack once again goes nowhere this week. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have the net approval trends improving for Malcolm Turnbull but deteriorating for Bill Shorten, but the opposite is true on preferred prime minister, so take your pick really.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  2. Boerwar:

    WTF? Please don’t go, I always value your comments.

    And any light you can shed on the Nobel Laureate thing would be appreciated.

  7. She was a civilian in this situation. But, she ran to the danger to save others. She is a hero to me.

    And me.

  11. Davidwh,
    You seem to be okay with the ABC 7.30 program asserting that the NSW Branch of the Labor Party is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Chinese Communist Party based upon very little by way of evidence at all! I thought you were a lawyer?

  13. It is interesting how Trumble and the Victorian Libs led by that insignificant little pest Guy, are ranting and raving about the Brighton ‘terrorist’ being out on parole and asking Premier Andrews “why?”
    The simple answer is that politicians don’t determine whether or not parole is granted, a Parole Board does.
    Prisoners are eligible to apply for parole at the end of the non-parole period of their sentence. The Parole Board then considers the prisoners eligibility for parole.
    Judges hand down sentences and specify the non-parole period.

    Trumble and Guy should be whacked long and hard by the lawyers over this.

    I posted a link to a great article on the parole system recently. I highly recommend reading it.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/a-policemans-widow-fights-for-justice–but-not-the-way-you-would-expect-20170601-gwhxxt.html

  16. c@tmomma @ #1511 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 8:54 pm

    Davidwh,
    You seem to be okay with the ABC 7.30 program asserting that the NSW Branch of the Labor Party is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Chinese Communist Party based upon very little by way of evidence at all! I thought you were a lawyer?

    Davidwh may be many things, but don’t accuse him of being a lawyer.

  24. player one @ #1381 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 2:04 pm

    don @ #1376 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 1:55 pm

    I have done nothing of the kind. I gave you data which showed that the US output of nuclear derived electricity is flat lining, which you chose to interpret as increasing.

    *sigh*
    2012 = 769,331,249 MWh
    2013 = 789,016,473 MWh
    2014 = 797,165,982 MWh
    2015 = 797,177,533 MWh
    2016 = 805,327,221 MWh
    Yes, I guess you could call that ‘flat lining’ … if you tilt your head to the left a bit.

    Bullshit, bloody bullshit.

    I gave you the figures and the URL and you cherry pick.

    806,968,301 MWh in 2010, and in 2016 it was 805,327,221 MWh.

    Flat lining.

  26. Not only not a lawyer but also don’t agree with Labor being a branch of the Chinese Communist Party. I never said I agreed with that comment. I simply said you have to blame Dastari for the focus on Labor due to his stupid actions in China.

  27. Our minimum wage adjustment process systematically shortchanges workers:

    The annual minimum wage adjustment cycle that exists in Australia means that minimum wage workers have to endure systematic cuts in their real wages more than they would if the adjustments were indexed through the year after an annual review decision.

    With inflation being a continuous process (more or less), the annual adjustments by the Fair Work Commission hand employers huge gains and deprive the workers of real income in between decisions.

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=36134

  28. davidwh @ #1526 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 9:16 pm

    Not only not a lawyer but also don’t agree with Labor being a branch of the Chinese Communist Party. I never said I agreed with that comment. I simply said you have to blame Dastari for the focus on Labor due to his stupid actions in China.

    Dashtyari’s actions are insignificant compared to others I could name on the other side of politics. Dashtyari was open about things.

  29. don @ #1524 Tuesday, June 6th, 2017 – 9:15 pm

    player one @ #1381 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 2:04 pm

    don @ #1376 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 1:55 pm

    I have done nothing of the kind. I gave you data which showed that the US output of nuclear derived electricity is flat lining, which you chose to interpret as increasing.

    *sigh*
    2012 = 769,331,249 MWh
    2013 = 789,016,473 MWh
    2014 = 797,165,982 MWh
    2015 = 797,177,533 MWh
    2016 = 805,327,221 MWh
    Yes, I guess you could call that ‘flat lining’ … if you tilt your head to the left a bit.

    Bullshit, bloody bullshit.

    I gave you the figures and the URL and you cherry pick.

    806,968,301 MWh in 2010, and in 2016 it was 805,327,221 MWh.

    Flat lining.

    And P1 has used figures post Fukushima which show a different trajectory.

  30. Bemused
    Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 8:57 pm
    It is interesting how Trumble and the Victorian Libs led by that insignificant little pest Guy, are ranting and raving about the Brighton ‘terrorist’ being out on parole and asking Premier Andrews “why?”
    The simple answer is that politicians don’t determine whether or not parole is granted, a Parole Board does.
    Prisoners are eligible to apply for parole at the end of the non-parole period of their sentence. The Parole Board then considers the prisoners eligibility for parole.
    Judges hand down sentences and specify the non-parole period.

    Trumble and Guy should be whacked long and hard by the lawyers over this.

    I posted a link to a great article on the parole system recently. I highly recommend reading it.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/a-policemans-widow-fights-for-justice–but-not-the-way-you-would-expect-20170601-gwhxxt.html

    Bemused

    I was surprised that a number of the commentariat were quite critical of Turnbull for sticking his nose in where it didn’t belong, just to take a cheap political shot. Derryn Hinch also thought he should have kept right out of it.

  33. Thanks CC.
    I remember a lot of upgrades being done while I was a commuter (Wyong-Central) many years ago. After they were finished some of the speeds experienced were frightening. Maybe they have had to slow them down.

    Tunnel Olympic Park to Gosford? Sheesh. Couldnt we just take over two lanes of the M1 and put rail along there? I have always liked the idea of people being stuck in traffic and seeing a train whizz past them with people in the train smiling, laughing, talking, reading, working, sleeping….

  34. Guytaur:

    By contrast we are having glorious weather here. Autumn is the best time to visit the South Coast of WA.

  36. Player One, you appear to have mistaken a simple reversion to the mean to pre-Fukushima levels of nuclear power generation for a significant growth trajectory that will continue into the future. Cherry picking the stats for just after the disaster and those for last year might get you results that you like, but you’ll need to wait a few more years for the actual growth rate for the future to be even remotely apparent.

  37. Confessions.

    I don’t know what to expect with weather nowadays. I had got used to later winters and summers.

    Rain etc not a surprise. The coldness today a little.

  39. Didn’t realise that Ulhmann’s doing a ‘China Power’ series on ABC news all week.

    Presumably next week it we’ll get a series on Saudi power.

  41. Does yougov provide a way to see the polling trend over the past days/weeks? I feel that at one point they had something closer than ‘Conservatives +4’.

  42. goudengans @ #1536 Tuesday, June 6th, 2017 – 9:31 pm

    Player One, you appear to have mistaken a simple reversion to the mean to pre-Fukushima levels of nuclear power generation for a significant growth trajectory that will continue into the future. Cherry picking the stats for just after the disaster and those for last year might get you results that you like, but you’ll need to wait a few more years for the actual growth rate for the future to be even remotely apparent.

    yeah, but using data prior to a seismic event as tour base is even more dishonest imho.

  43. Now a highly negative report on Labor’s prospects on Foreign Correspondent, based on some anti Corbyn ex Labor voters in Wales.

  44. Greensborough Growler

    Is it, though? I’d say that the idea that production is flat makes a lot more sense than it growing significantly into the future.

    Before Fukushima, nuclear power production had been flat for a couple of years running at around 90% capacity, which is the level it returned to last year. If new generation capacity doesn’t come online (and it doesn’t seem like it will), then with plants already running at over 90% capacity there isn’t much room for growth.

  45. Eddie really does want to be tried by the Legislative Council:
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/eddie-obeids-lawyer-tells-court-it-is-an-affront-for-courts-to-judge-mps-20170606-gwlery.html
    but be careful what you wish for. His lawyers concede that the House of Representatives can (and has) jail people but think the Legislative Council probably can’t.
    If he is tried by the LC and they can jail him I think you could throw away the Quay
    (I actually only posted this so I could make that pun)

  47. I’m a bit fed up with this nonsense.

    For those who haven’t been following this thread in detail, here was my original comment that apparently caused this latest and utterly nonsensical ‘nuclear war’ – it was in response to a post by Zoomster, but the origin was a claim by guytaur that nuclear is ‘declining world wide’ … note – not ‘flat-lining’ but ‘declining’ …

    Nuclear is on the increase in both China and India. In the US the picture is a bit mixed – new plants are being built while old plants are shutting down. Numerically, more plants are shutting down than are being built, but the overall amount of electricity generated by nuclear plants is rising. And interestingly, their main competition is gas, not renewables.

    It is just nonsense to say nuclear is in decline world wide.

    Hardly seems like a controversial comment, does it? And it is also very easy to verify. But it has evoked screams of outrage over two days from the usual suspects here, none of whom apparently thought to look at the facts before posting their diatribes, and then (when I held my ground, because I had checked the facts) followed those up with insults.

    And just what are the facts? Well, to see the whole thing in one simple graph, showing exactly the three countries I mentioned (who also just happen to be three of the four biggest C02 emitters in the world, emitting over 50% of all C02) look here …

    http://asian-power.com/ipp/news/china-predicted-eat-over-half-global-growth-in-nuke-power-through-2050

    Forget about the ‘forecast’ stuff – while interesting, it’s not relevant. Just look at the section of the graph that represents the ‘known’ stuff – i.e. the part of the graph up to 2017.

    Does this look like a ‘world wide decline’ to anyone? … anyone? … anyone? … Bueller?

  50. goudengans @ #1544 Tuesday, June 6th, 2017 – 9:58 pm

    Greensborough Growler

    Is it, though? I’d say that the idea that production is flat makes a lot more sense than it growing significantly into the future.

    Before Fukushima, nuclear power production had been flat for a couple of years running at around 90% capacity, which is the level it returned to last year. If new generation capacity doesn’t come online (and it doesn’t seem like it will), then with plants already running at over 90% capacity there isn’t much room for growth.

    The figures are there. 4.5% growth post 2012 and more plants being built. Doesn’t indicate a decline in Nuclear power, comrade

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