BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

As the weeks go by, so do the opinion polls.

The Coalition had relatively good numbers this week from Essential Research, but unchanged ones from Newspoll. The first of these is cancelled out by the fading impact of the Coalition’s improved result from the post-budget poll from Ipsos, so BludgerTrack once again goes nowhere this week. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have the net approval trends improving for Malcolm Turnbull but deteriorating for Bill Shorten, but the opposite is true on preferred prime minister, so take your pick really.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. Jenauthor

    How about Writing a book on the Trump imbroglio? It would read like fiction. That is how crazy and unbelievable it all is!!

  3. victoria Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 12:26 pm

    the leaks In the Trump imbroglio seem to gather momentum every Friday evening. This week has not disappointed. The hits keep coming. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch!!
    And Looking forward to Bill Maher!

    *********************************
    Bits of Bill
    Got himself in a bit of hot water :

    ‘And Ben Sasse laughed’: Internet furious at Bill Maher for calling himself a ‘house n***er’

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/and-ben-sasse-laughed-internet-furious-at-bill-maher-for-calling-himself-a-house-ner/

    THEN :

    Bill Maher mocks Trump’s absurd ‘covefefe’ gaffe: ‘That’s when we knew dad couldn’t live on his own’

    He noted that it was a lot like the commercials for the assisted living center. Ultimately the children say “that’s when we knew Dad could no longer live on his own.”

    “The last thing I want to hear from this White House is, ‘his fingers just hit the wrong button,’” Maher said.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/bill-maher-mocks-trumps-absurd-covefefe-gaffe-thats-when-we-knew-dad-couldnt-live-on-his-own/

    I am sure Confessions will post the youtube URL for the whole show later

  4. victoria Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 1:21 pm
    Jenauthor
    How about Writing a book on the Trump imbroglio? It would read like fiction. That is how crazy and unbelievable it all is!!

    *********************************************
    I see Kushner is reportedly in debit for up to 1.3 Billion …. and since his Chinese VISA racket has shut down – that may be a reason for “allegedly” chasing Russian Funds ( at what price ??? )

    The kids won’t need visiting rights to visit Daddy in jail …..they can talk to each other in adjoining cells ….

  7. victoria Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 1:33 pm
    phoenixRed

    Thanks. Hopefully the rest of show will be good too!

    ****************************************

    Did you remember to watch Samantha Bee this Thursday, Victoria ? – she was off her face with Trump ….

  9. victoria Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 1:37 pm

    phoenixRed

    I always seem to overlook her show for some reason. Will look for it now. Thanks

    ****************************************
    I just checked – it is repeated on Wednesday BUT LATE – 1205 ( just after midnight ) so you have to set the video/STB whatever you have ….. it was a good episode …

  13. Elaugaufein – I’m sure I’ll be corrected if wrong. But I don’t think that is right. There doesn’t have to be a formal motion to show support of the minority govt. I’m pretty sure Gillard didn’t have one. The Monarch gives each side a go (starting with the govt) and each side continues until they lose a no-confidence motion.

  14. It really is starting to look as if the biggest mistake May has made (among many) was to say “No Deal is better than a bad deal”. Insane. Voters in areas exposed to the EU Market (e.g. manufacturing) are flocking to Labor afraid that no-deal tariffs will lock them out.

  16. Vic,
    Everything that’s happened with Trumps links with Russian back channels will be on grand display on June 8 when Comey goes public about the President of the United States attempting to obstruct justice in a national serucity matter that goes to the heart of democracy.
    It will be the most consequential testimony in modern history – even more important that Watergate, which was a domestic criminal act and not a national security act.
    I predict a massive television audience, and an outcome that will move Congress to act on impeachment.
    Why impeachable moves? I think Comey will offer new information about Trumps own motivation and his actions – not just those of his campaign and his surrogates.
    Can’t wait for next week and watch Trump implode, slowly.

  17. al pal @ #116 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 2:08 pm

    Vic,
    Everything that’s happened with Trumps links with Russian back channels will be on grand display on June 8 when Comey goes public about the President of the United States attempting to obstruct justice in a national serucity matter that goes to the heart of democracy.
    It will be the most consequential testimony in modern history – even more important that Watergate, which was a domestic criminal act and not a national security act.
    I predict a massive television audience, and an outcome that will move Congress to act on impeachment.
    Why impeachable moves? I think Comey will offer new information about Trumps own motivation and his actions – not just those of his campaign and his surrogates.
    Can’t wait for next week and watch Trump implode, slowly.

    ‘Serucity’? Better send that one to Trump so he can covfefe it.

  19. Anyone know how Trump’s moves to ban James Comey from testifying next week are going?

    I heard it was an option Trump was considering taking. Because. He. Can.

  20. confessions Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 2:15 pm
    PhoenixRed:
    Eliot Spitzer is a panelist – haven’t seen him for a while.

    *********************************************
    Bills opening was a good laugh – Trump a great negotiator, HA – can’t even get his wife to hold his hand ….

    Have to watch rest later tonight ……. THANKS !!!

  21. C@tmomma Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 2:18 pm

    Anyone know how Trump’s moves to ban James Comey from testifying next week are going?

    I heard it was an option Trump was considering taking. Because. He. Can.

    *********************************************
    Saw this on Raw Story C@t ….

    Here’s why Donald Trump can’t use executive privilege to prevent former FBI Director Comey from testifying – LONG ARTICLE

    Legal experts say that Trump could invoke a doctrine called executive privilege to try to stop Comey from testifying. But such a maneuver would draw a backlash and could be challenged in court, they said.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/why-donald-trump-cant-use-executive-privilege-to-prevent-former-fbi-director-comey-from-testifying/

  23. Trump would surely face public criticism if he tries to stop Comey’s testimony, Rozell said. Critics could claim Trump is using privilege to thwart questions about potential ties between Russia and Flynn and Russia’s alleged influence on the election. “That’s the rub with executive privilege: It makes it look like you have something to hide,” Rozell said

  24. C@t:

    The panel discussed that on Real Time and concluded that even if Trump uses his executive power, Comey can still just tell his story anyway via news conference. They all agreed he is itching to tell his story.

  25. Noted Constitutional Lawyer – Lawrence Tribe

    Laurence Tribe‏Verified account

    If Trump claims exec priv to block Comey testimony next wk, remember he waived that priv when publicly giving his version of their exchanges

  26. Laurence Tribe‏Verified account

    Comey testimony re his communications w/ Trump can’t be blocked by T because they became non-confidential once T discussed them publicly.

  31. I read a book several years ago called ‘The Untied States of America’, which contended that the ties which bind the USA together are fairly flimsy, and there’s not much to stop States becoming independent (I can’t remember how it dealt with the Southern secession in this context, but I’m sure it did…)

    Regardless of whether Trump hangs on for one term or two, if he’s not stopped soon, America will lose its dominance in world affairs. (Which may not be a bad thing…)

    The irony of this however — if China replaces America as the dominant world power (and please note the ‘if’), then will that mean Communism has won out after all?

  34. @ P1

    I’m following these reports (Finkel etc) and note their history of getting predictions badly wrong.

    You strike me as someone who is not highly numerate, who has no experience of large scale construction projects and doesn’t have a background dealing in or with engineering or accounting.

    The reason that I and others disagree with you on gas is that it’s going to take 4 – 6 years before any new large-scale gas project generates it’s first kWh. For the sake of discussion, let’s use 5 years as an average.

    In that 5 years, based on historical averages, Australia is going to add about 4.2 GW of small-scale solar (70MW per month of systems 100kWh added between now and 2021.

    All before the hypothetical gas plant is built and generates its first kWh. A plant that is going to be built on the basis of a 30 or 40 year economic life.

    Then we need to talk about the drop in demand as a result of Australia’s aging industrial capacity being shut down. A lot of our extremely large users are aging plants which are being held together with sticky tape, good luck and government subsidies. That can’t continue for much longer.

    Aside from peaking capacity, of which we already have plenty, the business model for new large-scale baseload gas (or coal) will have been smashed long before the first new plant comes online. The new renewable generation is going to displace our aging coal generators.

  36. Thanks heaps, PRed and ‘Fess!

    Now that the Roast Chook and vegs are on I will sit back and watch Real Time. Thanks again. 🙂

  38. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-arms-race-for-queensland-how-sunshine-state-will-decide-next-government-20170601-gwi8a3.html

    Championed by the Coalition (despite what it could do to the industry in other states) and shown a turned cheek by Labor (which needs to support it for those critical mining economies in the central north while showing environmental responsibility in the south-east), Adani has presented a minefield the majors are still learning to navigate.
    …
    Mr Joyce is determined the Nationals will fight the battle for Queensland on jobs and the economy. He points to Matt Canavan, who is considered a rising star in the LNP, and the work he is doing to bring attention to central and north Queensland. Senator Canavan, who doubles as the Resources Minister and Minister for North Queensland, is very deliberately based in Rockhampton, helping fend off Labor’s appeal in a traditional working class region.

  39. We know the coalition are committed to their mining industry electoral donors but to see the ALP sell out their progressive clean energy credentials for a few votes in Queensland is hard to stomach.

  40. grimace @ #134 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 3:13 pm

    The reason that I and others disagree with you on gas is that it’s going to take 4 – 6 years before any new large-scale gas project generates it’s first kWh. For the sake of discussion, let’s use 5 years as an average.

    Grimace, is there any simple (a few sentences that a lay person like me can understand) reason why a large scale gas project takes so long to start generating?

    Are there off-the-shelf generators of sufficient size, or do they all have to be built from scratch?

    I realise all the extra stuff like reliable connections to the grid, the power poles and wires themselves, might take a few months (?) but why does it take so long when a large solar array can be up and running in, I think, twelve months or much less?

  46. From the NY Times dawn patrol email:

    Scientists and the leaders of virtually every country in the world take climate change seriously. There is only one major exception: the Republican Party in the United States. Republican leaders instead promote silly conspiracy theories, like the “cornucopia of dystopian, dishonest and discredited data” President Trump offered yesterday. When in office, the party acts on these falsities.

    Yet Republicans have paid virtually no political price for all of this.

    You can add the Liberal and National parties of Australia to the Republicans for not taking climate change seriously, and they’ve paid no political price for this either.

  48. grimace @ #134 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 3:13 pm

    I’m following these reports (Finkel etc) and note their history of getting predictions badly wrong.

    I think their predictions are likely to be more reliable than those of you solar warriors, some of whom don’t even seem to understand the difference between exponential and logistic growth curves. Finkel and the CSIRO generally seem to at least know what they are talking about, even if they sometimes have to slant their views to align with the political headwinds of the day.

    You strike me as someone who is not highly numerate, who has no experience of large scale construction projects and doesn’t have a background dealing in or with engineering or accounting.

    You are wrong there. Also more than a little patronizing. I have given some details of my technical background and experience previously. You were obviously not paying attention, but I have no interest in going over it again – because it is irrelevant to the argument, which does not rely on my experience, but the experience of those who know far more about the issues than either you or I do. Mostly, what I do here is just read and report what various experts say, and also point out how it contradicts what the various non-experts here claim.

    The reason that I and others disagree with you on gas is that it’s going to take 4 – 6 years before any new large-scale gas project generates it’s first kWh. For the sake of discussion, let’s use 5 years as an average.

    This has been discussed recently and is easily refuted. We can use currently unused gas generation capacity in this time frame, and can also fairly quickly convert other existing generation facilities to use gas.

    In that 5 years, based on historical averages, Australia is going to add about 4.2 GW of small-scale solar (70MW per month of systems 100kWh added between now and 2021.

    Well, happy to wait and see how that pans out for you. But I would just point out (again) that in that time we can also … I repeat also … reduce our C02 emissions by around 5% per year just by using unused gas generation capacity while we wait for your renewables to come on stream. Not that you seem to care about this – but others do.

    All before the hypothetical gas plant is built and generates its first kWh. A plant that is going to be built on the basis of a 30 or 40 year economic life.

    I know you solar warriors always prefer to talk economics rather than emissions reductions, but if you are talking 30 year lifetimes then it seems germane to point out that this is about the time frame that we will still be burning coal if we blindly pursue renewables. This was confirmed (again) in the CSIRO report published yesterday, as well as by the ENA/CSIRO report published a few weeks ago. Have you read either of these?

    Then we need to talk about the drop in demand as a result of Australia’s aging industrial capacity being shut down. A lot of our extremely large users are aging plants which are being held together with sticky tape, good luck and government subsidies. That can’t continue for much longer.

    Or, we could instead talk about the expected 40% increase in demand from electric vehicles. Renwables will struggle to keep up with that demand – let alone replacing existing baseload power generation. It always strikes me as odd how you solar warriors crow about the impending rise in electric vehicles when you need to use it to push the sales of domestic PV and batteries, and then a few minutes later forget all about it and assume that all new domestic PV and storage will be available to meet baseload power demands.

    Aside from peaking capacity, of which we already have plenty, the business model for new large-scale baseload gas (or coal) will have been smashed long before the first new plant comes online. The new renewable generation is going to displace our aging coal generators.

    Well, this partly (and only partly, according to Finkel) depends on the price of gas. But it is interesting that in the CSIRO report published a few days ago the most significant reductions in C02 emissions in the electricity generation sector arose from the two scenarios that used the most gas. In fact, the more gas used, the more C02 emissions declined.

    Do you think this is just a coincidence?

  50. don @ #140 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 3:40 pm

    grimace @ #134 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 3:13 pm

    The reason that I and others disagree with you on gas is that it’s going to take 4 – 6 years before any new large-scale gas project generates it’s first kWh. For the sake of discussion, let’s use 5 years as an average.

    Grimace, is there any simple (a few sentences that a lay person like me can understand) reason why a large scale gas project takes so long to start generating?
    Are there off-the-shelf generators of sufficient size, or do they all have to be built from scratch?
    I realise all the extra stuff like reliable connections to the grid, the power poles and wires themselves, might take a few months (?) but why does it take so long when a large solar array can be up and running in, I think, twelve months or much less?

    Large scale coal/gas/hydro projects take a long time to get off the ground because there is no “off the shelf” coal/gas/hydro plants sitting around, they are customised to each location.

    For each new plant, there is an engineering pre-feasibility study (looking at different design options), then a feasibility study (detailed proposal around your chosen option) followed by the engineering, procurement, construction and management of the actual plant itself. The major components of a plant are custom made, so are made to order once you are doing the EPCM, and there are a huge number of permits and approvals you need to apply for in order to operate a plant.

    Solar PV is modular, the components are literally sitting somewhere on a shelf or can be very quickly manufactured. The normal process with a manufacturer is the availability of your panels 60 days after payment of your deposit.

    The bureaucratic side of dealing with the grid operator is very, very painful. In WA, there is no standardised process for approval of a 150kW+ system. A 30kW – 150kW system can take up to 12 months.

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