BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

As the weeks go by, so do the opinion polls.

The Coalition had relatively good numbers this week from Essential Research, but unchanged ones from Newspoll. The first of these is cancelled out by the fading impact of the Coalition’s improved result from the post-budget poll from Ipsos, so BludgerTrack once again goes nowhere this week. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have the net approval trends improving for Malcolm Turnbull but deteriorating for Bill Shorten, but the opposite is true on preferred prime minister, so take your pick really.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  2. There is no one for Turnbull to hand over to. Even the right wing nut jobs know that.

    And there’s no real reason to get rid of him, because he’s behaving the way the RWNJs want him to, and the more moderate members of the party are too wimpy to challenge them.

    Of course, if he goes all bolshie on climate change, it might be game over – but that assumes a stiffness of backbone young Malcolm does not appear to possess.

    The Budget hasn’t helped him, though. The lack of a Budget bounce will be seen by the RWNJs as evidence that moving to the left isn’t worth it, and merely tighten their grip on Malcolm’s sensitive parts. (They won’t recognise the problem was that Malcolm didn’t defy them ENOUGH).

    Malcolm set his course when he accepted the PMship – and he can’t change it now.

    ** All of this kind of prediction stuff does not take into account what is going through the minds of backbenchers, particularly those in vulnerable seats. Leadership changes are driven by them, and they are driven by personal interest (stuff the party or national good). However, it is hard to see anyone who might be their saviour, but it’s easier to change leaders than it is to do the work required to build a personal vote.

  3. zoomster

    Do you think that if Turnbull is defeated in the next election, Abbott might be returned as Opposition Leader? That seems to be his peak performance potential.

  4. Ab

    BishJnr could come up with some really original words to decline. Maybe –

    “I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party …”

  5. CTar:

    You know you’ve got no alternative leadership material when JBishop is pegged for PM, Dutton as deputy leader and Abbott as foreign minister!

  6. CSIRO report doctored to pretend gas cheaper than wind and solar
    Like a dog returning to it’s vomit, this government, and its lackeys, keep circling back to fossil fuels as the ‘solution’. They have based the cost comparisons on scenarios which effectively compare apples with oranges, and where the base data is simply wrong.
    e.g.

    It estimates, for instance, that the cost of wind energy will fall to $80/MWh by 2020. That is nearly 50 per cent more than the $55/MWh contract signed last month by Origin Energy for the Stockyard Hill wind farm.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/csiro-report-doctored-to-pretend-gas-cheaper-than-wind-and-solar-92725/
    In addition – this from the Abbott era appointed CSIRO chief whose aim is life is to gut climate science at the organisation:

    CSIRO chief Larry Marshall said it was important to consider “security, affordability and sustainability”, but then suggested the coal could be used as a feedstock for hydrogen.

    “We think of coal as the past, but what if we could reinvent it into the feedstock for hydrogen,” Marshall said. Most people think hydrogen is only a good idea, or at least a clean idea, if the feedstock is wind or solar.

  8. “I find the notion that Turnbull would hand over to anyone highly amusing.”
    Whats he got to hand over? A party with deep, barely papered over divisions where the leader has to hand over their balls to RWNJ’s on taking to the post.

  10. ctar1 @ #12 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 7:16 am

    immacca

    Downer has just nothing to say that isnt simple fluff and bullshit. Been given her lines and no mental flexibility to even modify them depending on what she’s asked.

    It was fun to watch. She just reeled out lines that she’s learnt. The ‘Get-Up’ guy blitzed her.
    She probably got to be on the Drum because no one else at the IPA could be faarked doing it late on a Friday afternoon.
    I’d think some one at the IPA will be thinking they should have made sure John Barron was on before sending her.

    I don’t regularly watch The Drum, so what is the perceived problem with John Bannon?
    Downer has a regular gig with Jon Faine in which she makes an idiot of herself. The Labor person on that segment is Jane Garrett who performs reasonably well.

  11. The only skerrick of positive news from sceptics’ greatest victory yet – the US president’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord – is that it seems to have galvanised politicians, scientists, business leaders and economists who have grown weary from all these years talking to the hand.

    Because now it is clearer than ever that the economic interests Trump claims to defend can only be served by acting on global warming. It is way past time to speak some more loud, blunt truth to arguments this stupid.

    …The truth is, we really cannot walk both sides of this street. We’re either on the side of Trump and his sceptics, or on the side of the facts.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/03/its-way-past-time-to-speak-truth-to-climate-arguments-this-stupid

  12. lizzie @ #53 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 10:15 am

    zoomster
    Do you think that if Turnbull is defeated in the next election, Abbott might be returned as Opposition Leader? That seems to be his peak performance potential.

    The latest budget was the defeat of the hard right austerity ideology in Australia. Team Abbott has been consigned to the political dustbin as a ruling force and returned to the fringes.

    The 2017 budget was a political shift back to the centre right.
    Will that allow for the ALP to move back to the genuine left and away from centrist be everything to everyone nonsense ? Time will tell…

  13. Instead of dragging her from behind a curtain (like Claudius) to make her leader, the LNP would have to drag Julie out of the change-room of a clothes shop. And then she would still say no. I will got into utter hysterics if they try to offer her the job.
    But I do think that, early next year, if Malcolm is still stuck in a polling rut, and desperation sets in, there is a chance for change. Madness, I know. But when has that ever stopped them.

  15. lizzie @ #61 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 10:25 am

    The only skerrick of positive news from sceptics’ greatest victory yet – the US president’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord – is that it seems to have galvanised politicians, scientists, business leaders and economists who have grown weary from all these years talking to the hand.
    Because now it is clearer than ever that the economic interests Trump claims to defend can only be served by acting on global warming. It is way past time to speak some more loud, blunt truth to arguments this stupid.
    …The truth is, we really cannot walk both sides of this street. We’re either on the side of Trump and his sceptics, or on the side of the facts.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/03/its-way-past-time-to-speak-truth-to-climate-arguments-this-stupid

    Clown Trumps decision is in no way a win for sceptics.
    Most US states and business will forge ahead with green reform regardless.

  16. lizzie

    If the Coalition loses the next election —

    1. They will soon cease to be a Coalition, at least for a few years.

    2. The leadership of the Liberal party will be a revolving door. Anyone – including Abbott – will get to have a stab at it.

    The Liberals obviously needed to ‘re do’ themselves back in 2007. They didn’t take the opportunity then, so the job will be much harder now.

    They might – like the Victorian Liberals, who flunked the same challenge – still get back into government (as the VicLibs did eventually) but if the changes to their party are only cosmetic, they will (like the VicLibs) be unable to keep it.

  17. Rex

    ‘Will that allow for the ALP to move back to the genuine left and away from centrist be everything to everyone nonsense ? Time will tell…’

    Sorry, what? You were condemning Shorten only last week because he didn’t sign on to Malcolm’s Magneficent Centrist Budget. Now you’re saying it’s because he needs to go further left??

  18. Lizzie

    The only skerrick of positive news from sceptics’ greatest victory yet – the US president’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord – is that it seems to have galvanised politicians, scientists, business leaders and economists who have grown weary from all these years talking to the hand.

    It’s exactly the same thing as happened with the health care debate. Before Trump tried to dismantle so called Obamacare, half of Trump’s constituents didn’t know that Obamacare and the ACA on which they were dependent were one and the same.
    That’s why I have maintained that Trump is a much better alternative than someone like Pence. Better a politically impotent clown than a politically adroit one.
    Trump is on track to completely destroy the Republican brand, which will be more significant in the long term.
    The practical effects of Trump’s withdrawal will not be all that significant – the east and west coast states will continue with their emission control agendas, but the political effect will be to galvanise climate activism.

  19. zoomster @ #67 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 10:34 am

    Rex
    ‘Will that allow for the ALP to move back to the genuine left and away from centrist be everything to everyone nonsense ? Time will tell…’
    Sorry, what? You were condemning Shorten only last week because he didn’t sign on to Malcolm’s Magneficent Centrist Budget. Now you’re saying it’s because he needs to go further left??

    I was condemning Shorten for abandoning ALP legacy re the structure of needs based funding and the medicare levy.
    Plenty of other Turnbull Govt policy to chew on which hasn’t been touched.

  20. Zoomster – Totally right. Without power and the funding it brings the glue that holds this rotten mob together will dissolved.

  21. zoomster @ #66 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 10:33 am

    lizzie
    If the Coalition loses the next election —
    1. They will soon cease to be a Coalition, at least for a few years.
    2. The leadership of the Liberal party will be a revolving door. Anyone – including Abbott – will get to have a stab at it.
    The Liberals obviously needed to ‘re do’ themselves back in 2007. They didn’t take the opportunity then, so the job will be much harder now.
    They might – like the Victorian Liberals, who flunked the same challenge – still get back into government (as the VicLibs did eventually) but if the changes to their party are only cosmetic, they will (like the VicLibs) be unable to keep it.

    A centre-right neo-liberal Govt isn’t my cup of tea, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see voters slowly warm to this Govt if they see it as a genuine neo-liberal Govt.

  22. Trog – I agree. Clinton would have got nowhere (except to devalue the Democrat brand). Better to let Trump go nowhere while devaluing the republican brand (and energising the Democrats).

  23. Trog @#68.
    Trump is poisoning the whole Right Wing Arsehole project worldwide. He’s a Septic Berlusconi, and they all know it. Bunga Bunga!

  24. The Trump administration is a worldwide joke. EVERYONE knows it. The rest of the world will move forward without them until a credible administration is elected.

  26. On the other hand … Trump might win a second term.
    The US economy is strengthening, apparently. And the Dems don’t seem to have an all-conquering leader.

  27. So what happens in the UK if we get a hung parliament. My big guess:
    1. The Queen asks the Tories (biggest party? present govt?) to try to form a govt.
    2. The Tories either decline or are defeated in a no-confidence motion
    3. The Queen offers Corbyn the seals of office.
    4. Corbyn takes power as a minority govt (no deals with anyone), but doesn’t have to worry about losing no-confidence because the SNP won’t vote him out.
    5. ASAP, Corbyn goes back to the polls as PM and asks for the “tools to finish the job”.

  28. Trump himself is out of his depth and he’s finding that out at the moment.

    He’s been used to operating in a circle of like minded business people all his life but is now exposed to leaders of all colours and creeds. I would bet he’s now regretting diving into a bigger pond where he’s not the biggest fish.

    You never know, he might be warming to the idea of early impeachment with legal immunity.

  29. Senior party figures: “Julie, you’re our last hope. We desperately need you to step in as PM.”
    Julie Bishop: “I’m sorry, I can’t.”
    Senior Party figures: “Why not?”
    Julie Bishop: “I’ve got absolutely nothing to wear.”

  30. Socrates
    Morning all. In a sad week for the planet I thought we should commemorate the 25th anniversary of the Mabo decision. Mabo never lived to see the decision handed down, but will be remembered for the good he did for his people. He fought for the case for a decade. Have a good day all

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-03/eddie-mabo-landmark-case-25th-anniversary/8586076?WT.ac=statenews_qld

    And more on Mabo from Paul Daley:

    James Cook was instructed to take possession of country ‘with the Consent of the Natives

    But implicit in those secret instructions is the implication that the land, if inhabited, was someone else’s for the asking

    It underscores, in part, the vast, almost comic, absurdist fiction of the convenient notion of some Australian terra nullius – “nobody’s land” – that endured for so long after invasion and occupation

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/postcolonial-blog/2017/jun/03/mabo-25-years-on-lets-look-at-the-vast-absurdist-fiction-this-ruling-toppled

  31. Zoomster

    The Liberals obviously needed to ‘re do’ themselves back in 2007. They didn’t take the opportunity then

    Spot on.

  32. CNN Politics
    13 mins ·
    The political firestorm around President Donald J. Trump’s top adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner is picking up momentum due to mounting confusion over why Kushner secretly met with the head of a Russian state-owned bank during the presidential transition in December.

  33. trog sorrenson @ #56 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 10:19 am

    CSIRO report doctored to pretend gas cheaper than wind and solar

    I like how RenewEconomy throws in “and solar” when the article clearly only shows that wind is cheaper, not solar. They do this all the time, as I have pointed out before. Also, the CSIRO report is clearly using “average” costs, whereas the RenewEconomy article is using specific cherry-picked instances.

    But these are in fact minor quibbles. More importantly, the RenewEconomy article is not really comparing apples with apples. What’s the use of a wind turbine when there is no wind? Or a solar panel when there is no sun? This means you need (a) massive and widely distributed overcapacity, or (b) additional storage to back up your renewables, all of which adds to cost – and these issues and additional costs are mentioned in the CSIRO report, but not factored into the figures quoted in the RenewEconomy article.

    But hey – is storage really necessary? How likely is it that there would simultaneously be no wind and no sun across the whole network? Well, lets look at the NEM statistics for 7pm yesterday:

    total generation: 27,034MW
    wind generation: 282 MW
    solar generation: 17 MW

    So at that time wind and solar were generating only around 1% of our electricity needs. This kind of thing occurs quite frequently (yes, I monitor it regularly – how sad is that?) and demonstrates why renewables withbout storage are not a viable replacement for baseline power generation. That’s why comparing costs of generation only – as the RenewEconomsy article does – is just blatant misrepresentation. The CSIRO article may indeed be overly pessimistic, and overly political, but the RenewEconomy article is just plain ridiculous.

    It is probably a good idea in future that if you are going to promulgate claims that a report is ‘doctored’, that you understand enough about the issue to know when you yourself are being fed ‘doctored’ information.

  34. antonbruckner11 @ #77 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 10:56 am

    So what happens in the UK if we get a hung parliament. My big guess:
    1. The Queen asks the Tories (biggest party? present govt?) to try to form a govt.
    2. The Tories either decline or are defeated in a no-confidence motion
    3. The Queen offers Corbyn the seals of office.
    4. Corbyn takes power as a minority govt (no deals with anyone), but doesn’t have to worry about losing no-confidence because the SNP won’t vote him out.
    5. ASAP, Corbyn goes back to the polls as PM and asks for the “tools to finish the job”.

    It’s a challenge for me not to look at the possibilities ahead given the history of UK election polling.

  37. P1

    It is probably a good idea in future that if you are going to promulgate claims that a report is ‘doctored’, that you understand enough about the issue to know when you yourself are being fed ‘doctored’ information.

    You can also apply a little common sense. Follow the money. If this CSIRO report is correct, then industry will be investing in gas generation rather than renewables.
    But it isn’t.

  39. trog sorrenson @ #87 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 11:30 am

    Follow the money. If this CSIRO report is correct, then industry will be investing in gas generation rather than renewables.

    But it isn’t.

    I’d hold off until after Finkel before claiming that, if I were you. Finkel is likely to recommend an EIS, but also suggest a “Low Emission Target” as a politically acceptable alternative so that Turnbull and Frydenburg can save face …. and gas qualifies as a “low emission” fuel.

    We can argue whether this is a cop-out (I think it is) and whether Finkel should resign if he is not allowed to recommend a full-blown EIS (I think he should), but there is no real doubt that whichever way it goes, we will most likely be using more gas in future. Under an EIS we would not do so for very long, but under an LET we could do so indefinitely … or at least until the ALP gets elected.

  44. Right-wingers panicked over Russia — and Dems are ready to play hardball

    Conservative leaders are getting a little anxious about President Donald Trump’s scandal-ridden White House and his inability to pass promised legislation.

    In a series of interviews with Politico on Trump and the ongoing Russia investigation, the leaders admitted they need some legislative wins.

    “When you talk to a member or their staff these days, you hear about Russia,” one activist with ties to the White House said. “The Russia stuff is really starting to distract people. I didn’t think that two or three months ago.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/we-could-lose-the-majority-in-2018-right-wingers-panicked-over-russia-and-dems-are-ready-to-play-hardball/

  45. the leaks In the Trump imbroglio seem to gather momentum every Friday evening. This week has not disappointed. The hits keep coming. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch!!
    And Looking forward to Bill Maher!

  46. I don’t think Corbyn can take power without some kind of agreement (even as a minority). In Westminster systems you generally need a motion to formally demonstrate you have support of the House in order to form government (the sitting government first, then the formal opposition if there is one, then the largest party not yet tried ). This is why even in no deal scenarios you get agreements on supply / confidence.

  47. Sometimes it really does feel like a cheap comedy script!

    Tea Pain @TeaPainUSA
    ·
    1h

    No wonder Nunes was convinced “unmasking” took place. He was the feller that requested it!
    Nunes-led House Intelligence Committee asked for ‘unmaskings’ of Americans
    washingtonpost.com

  50. After reading from BK’s most excellent collation today seem relatively quiet.

    I think I might actually write a book instead of scrolling non-stop!

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