BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

Another week of stasis in the polls results in another stable reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

This week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research have resulted in very slight movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, although Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection as gains in Western Australia and South Australia balance out a loss in Queensland. The new leadership numbers from Newspoll see the preferred prime minister rating maintain its condition of dead calm since the election, and both leaders’ net approval ratings continue their slow downward trend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  5. zoid

    The law was broken. It doesn’t matter how many regulations and rules you have, people will always break the laws (which was acknowledged by those of us posting on the metadata laws at the time).

    Of course, the easiest way to ensure that no one accesses your data unlawfully is to not have any laws at all….

  7. Vic,
    It’s lost to those who consume the MSM daily, and who don’t go to small specialist blog sites. That was my only point. Of course, as you point out it eventually happens in some form.

  9. Al Pal

    understand what you mean. the drip drip of what is going on in the msm will eventually lead to things moving along.

    yep. Hawthorn are in a bad place at present.

  11. Confessions:
    She may well be next time around. Trump has been making noises that he reckons she’ll be his opponent in 4 year’s time.

    Bill Maher raises this at the very end of his interview (21:00 in DG’s full episode link, relinked below) and she rather tellingly, I think, dead bats it with a ‘Mmmmmmm’.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cku8_lHAB_g

  12. Vogon Poet
    If you give someone or “something” power then it WILL be abused at some stage. A dead set certainty as people are involved .

  15. At the risk of starting a flame war, Ibelieve that if Elizabeth Warren had been the Dems nominee instead of Hilary, she’d be sitting behind the Resolute desk in the White House right now.

  16. Al Pal Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 3:50 pm
    Vic,
    It’s lost to those who consume the MSM daily, and who don’t go to small specialist blog sites. That was my only point. Of course, as you point out it eventually happens in some form.

    *********************************************

    For me – the only journalist of any credibility left in Australia is SMH’s Paul McGeough who writes from Washington – and there were some reports recently that he was asked to tone down his anti-Trump stuff ….and I can see why as such maybe the *story* gets lost …….

    Other Fairfax insiders say McGeough, a former editor of the SMH and veteran frontline war correspondent from Baghdad to Afghanistan, has been told to change from non-stop commentary and analysis and become more of a conventional foreign correspondent. That means more news feature writing and even the odd non-Trump story. He, like other correspondents, has been urged to be careful with emotive language too; although he’s been told he can still be critical of the president when necessary.

  17. Afternoon all 🙂

    My brain hurts. 🙁

    I have been at a Community Action Plan Forum for most of the day.

    I think I’ll just sit in the corner for a while and make unintelligible Trump-like sounds. Please make appropriate discounts wrt the quality of my contributions if I should be so foolish as to pipe up trying to sound knowledgeable. 😉

  21. Dan Gulberry Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 4:01 pm

    At the risk of starting a flame war, Ibelieve that if Elizabeth Warren had been the Dems nominee instead of Hilary, she’d be sitting behind the Resolute desk in the White House right now.

    ***********************************************

    She obviously gets under Agent Orange Trump’s thin skin :

    Trump Again Derides Elizabeth Warren as ‘Pocahontas’

    President Donald Trump returned to one of his most derogatory insults Friday, referring to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren as “Pocahontas” — a jab at her Native American ancestry.

    Speaking to a cheering crowd of NRA members in Atlanta, Trump said “it may be Pocahontas” who seeks the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-again-derides-elizabeth-warren-pocahontas-n752621

  23. Hah. Loser Democrats still going on about Trump and Russia. It’s fake news, move on. Trump will win again in 2020 if this is all the Democrats are talking about. The rust belt states are satisfied with Trump as he’s brought back the jobs, such as Ford and coal mining. Who knows, he might even pick up another rust belt state off the Democrats in 2020 such as Illinois or Minnesota, as the Republicans are gaining ground there.

  27. Why aren’t politicians who rip of the nation with agreements like this in gaol?
    Certainly i think we need a system of accountability much more severe than losing an election.
    ———–
    “Chevron executives have confirmed that Australian taxpayers would be forced to subsidise the clean-up costs in the event of an oil spill in the Great Australian Bight during exploration.
    They say that under the terms of the petroleum resource rent tax, the costs of cleaning up oil spills from exploration wells in the area would be tax-deductible, and could be held over and “uplifted” into future years, and claimed against the company’s other projects.”

  28. Poroti – You’d hope the state/territory motor registries would help out by forwarding company letters to registered owners, but I don’t know if that happens.

    BK may know.

  29. don @ #111 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 2:12 pm

    Once more with feeling.
    grimace @ #108 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 1:41 pm

    P1 has a considerable number of posters on here on her/his STFU list, consequently, s/he can’t follow any conversation that involves several of the more active followers on this board.

    My STFU list has only one permanent member, and I think we all know who that is. You and Trog appear to be trying hard to qualify as temporary members, but I’m afraid you will have to work a lot harder to make the grade.

    If I choose not to respond to other’s posts mentioning me (e.g. from people like Grimace and Cud Chewer) it is simply because I have better things to do with my time, and nothing to say to them anyway. If such people want to spend their time writing posts about me, thinking they are having some impact, then that’s fine with me – if nothing else, it is probably saving some other poor sod from bearing the brunt of their abuse.

    On today’s issue, you and Trog have both been shown to be simply wrong. Trog in the first instance, but you couldn’t resist joining in, as you so often do. And your only responses to having your errors pointed out to you is not to argue your case – since you clearly could not – but instead to double down on the insults.

    I think that tells everyone else here everything they need to know.

  30. formatting fail – trying again …

    don @ #111 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 2:12 pm

    Once more with feeling.
    grimace @ #108 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 1:41 pm

    P1 has a considerable number of posters on here on her/his STFU list, consequently, s/he can’t follow any conversation that involves several of the more active followers on this board.

    My STFU list has only one permanent member, and I think we all know who that is. You and Trog appear to be trying hard to qualify as temporary members, but I’m afraid you will have to work a lot harder to make the grade.

    If I choose not to respond to other’s posts mentioning me (e.g. from people like Grimace and Cud Chewer) it is simply because I have better things to do with my time, and nothing to say to them anyway. If such people want to spend their time writing posts about me, thinking they are having some impact, then that’s fine with me – if nothing else, it is probably saving some other poor sod from bearing the brunt of their abuse.

    On today’s issue, you and Trog have both been shown to be simply wrong. Trog in the first instance, but you couldn’t resist joining in, as you so often do. And your only responses to having your errors pointed out to you is not to argue your case – since you clearly could not – but instead to double down on the insults.

    I think that tells everyone else here everything they need to know.

  31. Mike Carlton‏ @MikeCarlton01 · 6h6 hours ago

     More

    More idiocy from the Oz. Does Julie Bishop lecture the Saudis or the UAE on female oppression? Why should Yasmin ?

  33. You really have to watch the US carefully when you’re talking Free Trade. But we already knew that (LNP missed the memo).

    The case for breastfeeding, and against formula milk, seems pretty clear. But a new publication from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the “2017 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers” (pdf), begs to differ. As a post on the Public Citizen site explains, the USTR calls out several countries for promoting breastfeeding over formula as a “technical barrier to trade” that might harm the profits of US industries.

    https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20170426/09303137242/want-to-promote-breastfeeding-thats-trade-barrier-says-us-trade-rep.shtml

  36. Is the Oz STILL going on about that Yasminn woman? I thought the paper was in favour of 18c being abolished, so why the hell are they so bothered by her offending veterans and their families? Isn’t this what they want, people free to say whatever they hell they want to?

  37. Lizzie

    the USTR calls out several countries for promoting breastfeeding over formula as a “technical barrier to trade” that might harm the profits of US industries.

    JFC.

  38. Are you a “gerontologiphobiac”?

    At the turn of the the 1900s a newborn Australian male could expect to live to only 48. By 1960 it was 68. Much of the difference was brought about by success in reducing the likelihood of quick deaths: things such as infections, road accidents and heart attacks. Which left long, lingering deaths from things such as cancer.

    But when treasury secretary Ken Henry examined lifespans as part of the Henry Tax Review for the Rudd government he found that in recent times the extra years of life hadn’t been extending our years of infirmity, they had been pushing those years out. We’d been getting extra good years and no extra unpleasant ones.

    It ought to have been news to celebrate, but, as is the way with slow-moving good news, it wasn’t much written about and didn’t become widely understood.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/lets-celebrate-the-good-news-aging-is-getting-better-20170428-gvup9f.html

  41. Lizzie:

    That is disgusting. I can remember travelling through SE Asia years ago and all you saw were adverts for Nestle encouraging women to use formula instead of breastfeeding.

  42. At the turn of the the 1900s a newborn Australian male could expect to live to only 48. By 1960 it was 68.

    I read an interesting statistic in a report the other day that of all the people who had ever lived to age 65, half are alive today.

  44. Donald Trump has appointed the former president of a leading anti-abortion group to the top communications role at the Department of Health and Human Services (DHSS).

    Charmaine Yoest, who for several years was head of Americans United for Life (AUL), will be HHS assistant secretary for public affairs. AUL played an instrumental role in the recent wave of anti-abortion laws by feeding model legislation to state lawmakers.

    Under Yoest, the group pushed model bills that outlawed abortion after 20 weeks, required abortion providers to gain admitting privileges at local hospitals, and mandated counseling and waiting periods for women seeking abortions. AUL is also opposed to the use of the morning-after pill and IUDs.

    …In her new role, she will set communications strategy for the entire health department.

    The agency is headed by another staunch opponent of reproductive rights, former Georgia congressman Tom Price, who as chair of the House budget committee oversaw passage of a measure that defunded Planned Parenthood.

    Price has also voiced hostility toward the requirement, put in place by the Obama administration, that health insurance plans cover contraception with no co-pay, once challenging a reporter to “bring me one woman” who struggled to afford contraception on her own.

    No need for comment…
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/28/trump-health-human-services-anti-abortion-charmaine-yoest?CMP=share_btn_tw

  48. just got back from three intensive days in Sydney and feel half alive today. Is that what they mean?

    Is this your way of saying you’re half the man you know yourself to be? lol

  49. As I am Blocked on Twitter by the ‘highly esteemed’ (mostly by himself, and maybe with attitudes like that to him that is why I am Blocked), Mike Carlton, would someone mind typing out for me here what his earth-shattering Tweet was?

    Thanks.. 🙂

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