BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

Another week of stasis in the polls results in another stable reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

This week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research have resulted in very slight movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, although Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection as gains in Western Australia and South Australia balance out a loss in Queensland. The new leadership numbers from Newspoll see the preferred prime minister rating maintain its condition of dead calm since the election, and both leaders’ net approval ratings continue their slow downward trend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  1. Player One,
    You are best off ignoring him, as most others do.

    I’m sorry but I can’t put my head in the sand like that. Bemused’s constant mockery, condescension and abuse, often for no justifiable reason, towards people he has identified, for reasons best known to himself, as ‘worthy’ of his constant and continuing depredations, only serves to smear the blog with an electronic equivalent of nightsoil.

    I say this knowing that Bemused is capable of so much more than that sort of thing. When he comments knowledgeably, which he is capable of on many different fronts, it is enlightening. The other stuff is just tawdry and I wish he would reign it in.

  2. I half wonder if Turnbull really wants to violently attack his enemies in the LNP but lacks the guts to do so.

    My own view is that he genuinely thought he’d be handsomely returned at the 2016 election and could wield influence in the partyroom accordingly. That didn’t happen, and here we are, Turnbull held hostage by his back bench.

  3. I don’t know if this is just because I’ve been paying particularly close attention, but it seems to me that there has been an excess of personal epithets and circular introspection over the past 24 hours or so.

  4. c@tmomma @ #701 Sunday, April 30, 2017 at 9:43 pm

    I’m sorry but I can’t put my head in the sand like that. Bemused’s constant mockery, condescension and abuse, often for no justifiable reason, towards people he has identified, for reasons best known to himself, as ‘worthy’ of his constant and continuing depredations, only serves to smear the blog with an electronic equivalent of nightsoil.

    For some reason, William tolerates him. The best the rest of us can do is ignore him.

  5. confessions @ #645 Sunday, April 30, 2017 at 6:27 pm

    The adults are back in charge over here.

    An easier commute is on track for residents in Perth’s north-east, with plans for a new dual carriageway.
    WA Premier Mark McGowan outlined plans for ‘New Lord street’ on Sunday, a seven kilometre dual carriageway to be built parallel to the existing Lord street in Ellenbrook.
    However Mr McGowan has cancelled the new bus lane to the suburb, saying an Ellenbrook rail line included in his government’s Metronet rail project made it redundant.
    ‘Part of the proceeds from cancelling the transit system will go towards preserving the land for the railway and towards some other bus infrastructure,’ he told reporters on Sunday.
    He said major communications infrastructure would be moved from the middle of Ellenbrook, to make way for a railway station.
    The Labor government has flagged the new road and moving the communications mast for completion by mid-2018 at a cost of $57 million.

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/state/2017/04/30/mcgowan-outlines-perth-public-transport-plan.html#sthash.VS14P6Bl.dpuf

    Thanks for posting that Confessions, I live in Ellenbrook and have a keen interest in the planned Ellenbrook railway line and the major communications infrastructure here.

    I hadn’t realised it until you posted this press release that the current communications tower was in the way of the proposed Ellenbrook railway line. I had a look on Google Maps and the press release is right. The only thing it’s wrong on is saying that the tower is in the middle of Ellenbrook, it’s not, the tower is near the front now that Ellenbrook is fully developed.

    At the moment there are large parts of Ellenbrook which are poorly served for mobile phone coverage because there is a large hill between the current major telecommunications infrastructure and a large part of the suburb, my house included, and the suburb has grown enormously since the tower was built. The network also suffers very badly from congestion from about 2 in the afternoon until about 9 or 10 at night because there is just not enough mobile bandwidth for the suburb now that it is fully developed.

    I would have thought the solution was to move the existing tower by the minimum amount required to accommodate the Ellenbrook railway line because it is in the middle of a light commercial/retail area (so it’s not in anybody’s backyard) and build a second tower somewhere, though I’m not sure where as there is nowhere else in the area that is not pretty much all houses. A second tower, rather than a relocation of the first one, will provide a much needed improvement in mobile coverage and data speeds in the area.

  6. ‘Fess,
    Malcolm Turnbull was functionally-incapable of winning last year’s election handsomely. He did as well as he ever could. I’m sure he planned to have such a long election campaign because he thought he would wear Bill Shorten down and grind him into the dust. Plus everyone would have all that time to bathe in Malcolm’s brilliance.

    More fool him.

    Same goes for all his cunning plans to revive his government’s fortunes. He convinces a few Press Gallery journalists, for about 24 hours, but once his brilliant idea is let loose to see the light of day beyond the realms of Parliament House and PMO, it soon loses it’s lustre.

    As someone said today, Malcolm Turnbull seems to have slipped into ‘President Turnbull’ mode, because that’s what he really wanted to be, Australia’s 1st President, so he’s letting others do the functional stuff while he swans around coming up with ‘Grand Visions’ for the country.

    Which are actually what are turning to dust. Instead, he’s been reduced to announcing a few construction jobs in Townsville off the back of an idea he knicked from Bill Shorten.
    Just magnifying really clearly how the tables have turned and who out of those two men is the one doing the grinding, with the other being ground down.

  7. c@tmomma @ #701 Sunday, April 30, 2017 at 9:43 pm

    Player One,
    You are best off ignoring him, as most others do.
    I’m sorry but I can’t put my head in the sand like that. Bemused’s constant mockery, condescension and abuse, often for no justifiable reason, towards people he has identified, for reasons best known to himself, as ‘worthy’ of his constant and continuing depredations, only serves to smear the blog with an electronic equivalent of nightsoil.
    I say this knowing that Bemused is capable of so much more than that sort of thing. When he comments knowledgeably, which he is capable of on many different fronts, it is enlightening. The other stuff is just tawdry and I wish he would reign it in.

    P1 is right C@t, you’d be much better off ignoring Bemused, and anyone else you don’t like, you’ll be a lot happier for it because getting angry at people you don’t like on a discussion board is like drinking poison and expecting someone else to get sick.

  8. Grimace:

    The new state govt is getting down to business, and predictably there is a shed load of low hanging fruit to be plucked. They’ve already picked off the high state public service agency numbers, and are now feasting upon public transport fails and their commitment to deliver rail to Perth’s north eastern corridor.

  9. c@tmomma @ #701 Sunday, April 30, 2017 at 9:43 pm

    Player One,
    You are best off ignoring him, as most others do.
    I’m sorry but I can’t put my head in the sand like that. Bemused’s constant mockery, condescension and abuse, often for no justifiable reason, towards people he has identified, for reasons best known to himself, as ‘worthy’ of his constant and continuing depredations, only serves to smear the blog with an electronic equivalent of nightsoil.
    I say this knowing that Bemused is capable of so much more than that sort of thing. When he comments knowledgeably, which he is capable of on many different fronts, it is enlightening. The other stuff is just tawdry and I wish he would reign it in.

    That is sheer nonsense.
    I was one of several who made a comment based on Zoids error, which was kinda funny, but only I got jumped on over it.

  10. The Courier-Mail has a report on federal results from the Queensland Galaxy poll, but the only results in the online report are to do with immigration and housing affordability. The lead story on the website is an opinion piece attacking Yassmin Abdel-Magied — I will keep you abreast of any further developments on that score.

  11. Interesting article on Mal’s planned Snowy expansion.

    After the flashy announcement, here’s what’s next for the Snowy Hydro expansion

    Turnbull has put $500,000 towards Snowy Hydro’s detailed feasibility study into building the first stage, a 2000 megawatt project christened Snowy 2.0. By the end of the year we should know whether his vision will stack up.

    “We are going to put the accelerator down on Snowy Hydro’s development,” the Prime Minister declared. “This is a great project and as it is expanded, it will ensure that Australian families and Australian businesses have more reliable power.”

    And yet, Snowy 2.0 may just be the first step. If it proves viable – and that’s a big “if” – behind closed doors there’s talk of Snowy 3.0, Snowy 4.0 and Snowy 5.0, quadrupling the output to around 8000 megawatts, making it the largest power-grid battery in the world, dwarfing exisitng schemes in the US and China.

    “The more we head down towards decarbonising the economy, the more pumped hydro and hydro in general, the more important they will become in the whole energy market,” Snowy Hydro chief executive officer Paul Broad says.

    But not everyone is a convert. Danny Price, managing director of Frontier Economics and an energy sector veteran, is scathing. “Pumped hydro makes no economic sense. It will never be built,” he says bluntly.

    According to Price, an energy advisor to the South Australian government, the sums still don’t add up. He says Lithium-ion and other emerging battery technologies lose only a fraction as much energy as pumped hydro, cost less, are scalable and can be located wherever they’re needed. They can also come on-line in milliseconds.

    And there’s the rub. Pumped hydro is a simple technology, but it’s not a magical one. It takes more electricity, between 20 and 30 per cent more, to pump the water back uphill than can be generated by running it back downhill. In terms of pure electricity, pumped hydro will always run at a loss.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/after-the-flashy-announcement-heres-whats-next-for-the-snowy-hydro-expansion-20170426-gvsil2.html

  12. Q&A should be a hoot tomorrow night with the panel being creator of Veep Armando Iannucci; ANU Vice Chancellor Brian Schmidt; Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce; Deputy Opposition Leader Tanya Plibersek; Research Director of IPSOS Mind & Mood Report Laura Demasi.

    Barnyard will be totally outclassed particularly if any scientific issues arise such as climate change.

  13. lizzie @ #580 Sunday, April 30, 2017 at 3:10 pm

    Fess
    In ye olden days, like when I was a teenager, there was little difference between English and American in books.
    PS I absolutely refuse to adopt “gotten”.

    I use gotten as often as applicable.

    It is in fact a perfectly legitimate word in English, or was at the time the future US was settled.

    It lost favour in England, but kept going in the US.
    It still survives in English in the phrase ‘Ill-gotten gains’.

    No doubt there are other words similar. One that I know of is ‘fall’ for what we now call autumn, it was used back in the 16th century in England.

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