BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

Another week of stasis in the polls results in another stable reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

This week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research have resulted in very slight movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, although Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection as gains in Western Australia and South Australia balance out a loss in Queensland. The new leadership numbers from Newspoll see the preferred prime minister rating maintain its condition of dead calm since the election, and both leaders’ net approval ratings continue their slow downward trend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  1. Mike Pence Is Going Down For The Russia Scandal Because He Never Vetted Mike Flynn

    For those who are worried that if Trump goes down for the Russia scandal, Vice President Mike Pence will be in charge, keep in mind that Pence in was in charge of the transition that never vetted Mike Flynn. The entire Trump administration is knee deep in the Russia scandal.

    The reason why is because this White House has left out key details about how involved Pence was, but slowly, little by little, the details are coming out, and they are going to be a big problem for Mike Pence.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/28/mike-pence-flynn-vetting.html

  2. Obama Says The One Thing That Will Drive Trump Insane And Send Him Completely Over The Edge

    As Donald Trump flounders as president and continually fails to get his health care bill passed, former President Barack Obama pointed out at a private event that Obamacare is more popular than Trump.

    It’s clear that Barack Obama is relishing the fact that his signature legislative achievement is now popular than the man who promised to destroy it.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/28/obama-drive-trump-insane-send-completely-edge.html

  3. Trump Whines About Work, Says He Misses His Old Life. We Miss His Old Life Too

    “POTUS learned this morning that 2 soldiers had died in combat. Then he whined about having to work a lot, said he misses his ‘old life.'”

    If Donald Trump thinks he is the only one who misses his old life, he’s mistaken. The majority of Americans do, and we’d be perfectly content if he were to choose to go back to it and leave the running of the country to adults.

    It is not the job, as Trump has learned to his cost, for a lazy, petulant man-child.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/28/trump-whines-work-misses-life-life-too.html

  4. Olbermann congratulates Trump on having ‘completely failed at everything’ in first 100 days

    “Let’s review his accomplishments,” Olbermann said. “Not accomplishments by our standards, not by human standards, just by the stuff he promised to do for those greedy, hateful and/or naïve people who voted for him. Let’s list all that he’s done for them.”

    He then paused for a moment of silence to signify that Trump hasn’t done anything for anyone outside of his immediate circle and income bracket. Olbermann absently polished the lenses of his glasses, then polished them again.

    “Yep, in the first hundred days he’s gotten nothing done for them,” Olbermann said.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/olbermann-congratulates-trump-on-having-completely-failed-at-everything-in-first-100-days/

  5. Donald Trump’s administration after 100 days: A second-rate salesman surrounded by con men and losers

    Trump has staffed the West Wing with low-grade hucksters, and his dealmaking skills are just bad poker bluffs

    A blustering, easily cowed president surrounded by venal and untalented washouts. Only 1,360 days until they leave office, after doing what we can only hope will be minimal damage to the country and the world.

    http://www.salon.com/2017/04/28/donald-trumps-administration-after-100-days-a-second-rate-salesman-surrounded-by-con-men-and-losers/

  6. UK was given details of alleged contacts between Trump campaign and Moscow

    The UK government was given details last December of allegedly extensive contacts between the Trump campaign and Moscow, according to court papers.

    Reports by Christopher Steele, a former MI6 officer, on possible collusion between the the Trump camp and the Kremlin are at the centre of a political storm in the US over Moscow’s role in getting Donald Trump elected.

    The December memo alleged that four Trump representatives travelled to Prague in August or September in 2016 for “secret discussions with Kremlin representatives and associated operators/hackers”, about how to pay hackers secretly for penetrating Democratic party computer systems and “contingency plans for covering up operations”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/28/trump-russia-intelligence-uk-government-m16-kremlin

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I think this may be the biggest collection of links I have ever put together. Enjoy!

    Multinational gas companies will soon sell an annual $50 billion worth of Australian liquefied natural gas to foreign markets, but the nation will have to wait more than a decade for any revenue boost and some projects will never pay a cent in tax for the resources they extract. FFS! And Morrison still won’t say we’re being short changed!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gas-tax-review-confirms-decade-wait-for-revenue-from-global-giants-20170428-gvuvo2.html
    Sam Dastyari desparingly has his say on Chevron paying absolutely no tax.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/28/chevron-has-paid-no-corporate-tax-in-australia-in-the-past-two-years-none-zero-zilch
    Laurie Oakes says that Turnbull could learn something from Trump when it comes to sales technique in selling his gas intervention.
    /news/opinion/laurie-oakes/malcolm-turnbull-can-learn-from-donald-trumps-sales-techniques-to-help-sell-his-gas-supply-plan/news-story/1f6e42fd3d16ff725a98e408d97f2aab
    In a very good op-ed piece David Speers examines “fake news” and the responsibilities journalists have. It’s a bit of a call to arms. Bring it on!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-danger-of-equating-legitimate-journalism-with-deliberate-fake-news-20170427-gvubw8.html
    “So how should Mr Turnbull prepare for his first face-to-face meeting with his US counterpart in New York next week? ” asks Judith Ireland.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/how-does-malcolm-turnbull-solve-a-problem-like-donald-trump-20170428-gvuls1.html
    Months after word of a terse phone call between Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and US President Donald Trump hit the headlines, the PM will head to New York next week, carrying with him the hope he can salvage their relationship.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/04/28/turnbull-trump-meeting-advice/
    Pauls Bongiorno starts his article with “Malcolm Turnbull has put his prime ministership on a war footing. It worked for a similarly besieged Liberal PM 16 years ago, and it’s definitely worth a shot now. The image of a helmet-wearing, Kevlar-vested Australian leader scurrying out of an RAAF Hercules in Kabul was the perfect visual accompaniment. It nicely reinforced his conflation of migrant workers visas and citizenship with fighting terrorists and national security just five days earlier.” He says Turnbull has adopted a war footing but he has big troubles on other fronts awaiting him when parliament returns.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2017/04/29/turnbull-adopts-war-footing/14933880004556
    The SMH editorial examines Trump’s first 100 days. The big take out? It could have been worse!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/trumps-100-days-worrying-but-could-have-been-worse-20170427-gvuc18.html
    Joathan Freedland writes that there is a lesson to be learned from Trump’s first 100 days and that is that resistance is NOT futile.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/28/donald-trump-first-100-days-resistance

  8. Section 3 . . .

    Jack Waterford has written a long, critical article on Centrelink’s performance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/it-seems-we-imagined-centrelinks-robodebt-fiasco-20170428-gvug7x.html
    It’s hardly surprising that the ACCC is taking Murray Goulburn to court over its treatment of dairy farmers.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/04/28/accc-takes-dairy-company-to-court/
    The US economy expanded at the slowest pace in three years in the first quarter of 2017.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/us-economy-grew-07-per-cent-in-first-quarter-slowest-in-three-years-20170428-gvv84e.html
    Mike Seccombe writes that the majority of the Emissions Reduction Fund is poured into questionable abatement schemes to discourage land clearing, while mass deforestation cancels out any climate gains.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/04/29/land-clearing-and-climate-change/14933880004562
    Clementine Ford talks about the rank hypocrisy behind the reactions to Yassmin’s withdrawn Facebook post. A good contribution.
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/news-and-views/opinion/over-the-top-reaction-to-seven-words-from-yassmin-abdelmagied-brings-this-country-into-disrepute-20170428-gvueno.html
    More on the subject from Jacqui Maley.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-anzac-tradition-isnt-a-legion-of-trolls-fighting-the-culture-wars-20170427-gvtsu3.html
    Martin Flanagan with a nice article on the matter.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/you-know-whos-really-offensive-the-faceless-social-media-warriors-20170428-gvudse.html
    Richard Ackland says it’s all part of the annual Anzac Day ritual.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/28/the-yassmin-abdel-magied-bash-a-thon-is-all-part-of-the-anzac-day-ritual
    Michelle Grattan says that Turnbull has deftly handballed the Yassmin issue to Mesma.
    https://theconversation.com/malcolm-turnbull-leaves-julie-bishop-in-the-hot-seat-in-abdel-magied-affair-76874
    Lest we forget. It is the defining phrase of ANZAC Day. And yet the Day itself is about forgetting. It really should be lest we remember because ANZAC Day is about denying history writes John Passant.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/anzac-day-lest-we-remember,10241

  9. Section 5 . . . with Cartoon Corner Part 1

    This new fire services levy in NSW will be rather inflammatory!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/revealed-what-you-will-pay-under-the-new-fire-services-levy-20170428-gvumk1.html
    After Dutton’s performance on Insiders The Saturday Paper explains what really happened on Manus Island.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/immigration/2017/04/29/what-happened-manus-island/14933880004567
    Hadley’s been forced to dump one of his spivvy sponsors.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ray-hadley-axes-major-sponsor-dyldam-after-subcontractors-complain-about-companys-collapse-20170428-gvus62.html
    Senior Catholic educators are warning in a confidential paper that any move by NSW bishops to start collecting rent from Catholic schools could be seen as a way of “paying for the ‘sins’ of the clergy”. This could, and should, blow up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/furore-over-proposal-to-charge-catholic-schools-rent-20170428-gvuuzx.html
    Who wants to be a rugby referee? This is shocking!
    http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/shocking-kinghit-on-referee-in-french-rugby-league-match-20170428-gvv2q7.html

    Matt Golding and the new boys in the Liberal Party.

    John Shakespeare and the treatment Yassmin got.

    Andrew Dyson and the last 100 days.

  10. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    David Pope and the new Centrelink.

    Cathy Wilcox with a new type of graph.

    David Rowe with two contributions about Trump’s first 100 days.


    Mark Knight also has a very good “celebration” of Trump’s first 100 days.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/723c8dd0185e62abdb1debff9d258e53?width=1024
    David Pope goes troppo over Potatohead’s aspirations.

    Matt Davidson and what Kelly O’Dwyer is having to put up with.

    Jon Kudelka nicely sums up Turnbull’s gas announcement.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/6526146a878c7be4f869f2745a950118
    Matt Golding makes a good point here.

  11. Section 2 . . . Part 1

    Paula Matthewson says that Morrison has got his mojo back but Turnbull not so.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/04/28/scott-morrison-pre-budget-speech/
    As Pauline Hanson wrests control of One Nation’s state branches, the newly incorporated party faces deregistration due to breaches of electoral guidelines writes Tom Ravlic.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/04/29/exclusive-one-nation-breaks-electoral-rules/14933880004569
    The Treasurer, Scott Morrison, strayed into some rather silly territory this week in a speech seeking to lay down a new set of markers for the budget, divvying up government debt into “good” and “bad” debt. Jess Irvine is unimpressed. It’s quite a good discussion.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-its-silly-to-debate-good-versus-bad-debt-20170428-gvukwq.html
    Simon Cowan has his say on the debt argument.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/political-left-and-right-hopelessly-hooked-on-budget-deficits-20170428-gvupos.html
    Students will be hit with higher fees and cuts to university funding will be scrapped in a contentious revamp of the Abbott government’s higher education package, to be included in the budget. The broad outline of the new funding formula, which could see student fees rising by a minimum of 25 per cent, is to be unveiled to vice-chancellors who have been summoned to Canberra on Monday for a briefing. Google.
    /national-affairs/education/budget-to-lift-fees-for-university-students-scrap-funding-cuts/news-story/5725169a6df0dfbe5ed0b699b5408be7

  12. Section 2 . . . Part 2

    Mark Kenny says that Westpac’s anti-coal stance exposes a Coalition out of sync with business and public on climate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/westpacs-anticoal-stance-exposes-a-coalition-out-of-sync-with-business-and-public-on-climate-20170428-gvuw4m.html
    Peter Hannam looks at the responses to Westpac’s Adani announcement. Quite funny really.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/pythonesque-westpacs-climate-policy-seen-to-rule-out-lending-to-adani-coal-20170428-gvusif.html
    And Crispin Hull really gets stuck into the Turnbull government’s pandering to Big Fossil. Queensland Labor gets a serve too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-foolish-gamble-to-pander-to-big-fossil-over-adani-coal-mine-20170427-gvtusc.html
    Phil Coorey writes on how the government plans to stave off PHON at the next election. Google.
    /news/infrastructure-nation-building-and-vote-gathering-always-goes-hand-in-hand-20170427-gvu1h3
    Karen Middleton on Soapy’s reversal of cuts to legal aid.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/04/29/brandis-reverses-community-legal-centres-funding-cut/14933880004566

  13. Section 4 . . . Part 1

    Guy Rundle says that Abbott and Latham are the masters of delusion.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2017/04/29/abbott-and-latham-the-masters-delusion/14933880004564
    Michael Koziol on the AFP’s mea culpa on metadata access. He says that Nick Xenophon is furious about it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/police-illegally-obtained-journalists-phone-records-under-new-metadata-retention-regime-20170428-gvutjx.html
    Network Ten’s entire market value was less than $100 million on Friday and the company is now “un-investible”, according to analyst reviews of its half year results. So it’s bye bye Ten?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/network-ten-uninvestible-and-in-the-red-until-2020-analysts-say-20170428-gvusjw.html
    Andrew Leigh goes in to bat for charities in the face of unsurmountable bureaucratic requirements.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/fix-fundraising-let-charities-spend-their-time-filling-hearts-not-filling-forms-20170428-gvus2b.html
    PNG police commander David Yapu has expressed concern that Immigration Minister Peter Dutton has raised tensions on Manus Island with his comments about the behaviour of three refugees towards a young boy. Nice work Potatohead!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-duttons-refugee-comments-could-raise-manus-tensions-police-chief-20170428-gvuutj.html

  14. Section 4 . . . Part 2

    The ducks are all lined up for an end to Coates’ reign at the AOC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/ron-walker-accuses-olympic-chiefs-of-interfering-in-battle-over-coates-20170428-gvuxar.html
    The Australian Federal Police has raised concerns about a “cultural element” inside corporate Australia that is hampering investigations into serious financial crimes, including bribery, fraud and money laundering.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/cultural-element-hampering-investigations-into-financial-crimes-afp-20170428-gvue0y.html
    Pizza wars, the $4.95 pizzas they spawned and the allegedly disastrous impact on Pizza Hut franchisees, is about to be put on trial in a case that will put the $170 billion franchise sector on edge. Adele Ferguson looks at this case that will likely affect franchise arrangements in general.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/pizza-hut-set-for-the-courts-over-cutprice-pizzas-20170428-gvurlt.html
    The Independent Australia’s political editor Dr Martin Hirst talks exclusively to Paris-based leftwing analyst John Mullen about how the anti-Fascist movement should approach the second round of the French presidential election.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/french-presidential-elections-fascism-and-how-to-fight-it,10242
    Nepotism and unknown new boys in the Liberal Party are ruffling some feathers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/andrew-bragg-can-an-inexperienced-32year-old-save-the-liberal-party-20170428-gvudgq.html

    DONE!!

  15. Morning all and thanks BK. On the Trump front, his budget exposes one more lie in my own field – his promise to fund jobs building transit (public transport) infrastructure, a desire even in US red states. Sure enough the budget does the opposite, cutting existing programs and expanding nothing. US pasenger train and bus manufacture is not internationally competitive, so if there is no domestic market, this blue collar industry will die.
    http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/2017/03/16/trumps-budget-hits-transit-hard/

    This is a case of the Republicans borrowing from the Abbott playbook, since in the past Bush Snr and Jnr did fund transit. It shows how complete the oil and gas industry influence over both parties has become. The rate of freeway construction in Australia is the highest in the world, except for a few Arab oil states. And even they are building metros and light rail as well as their populations grow.

  16. Thanks BK for a huge effort. I’m looking forward to meeting you at Kapunda.

    That story on catholic bishops considering charging schools rent is outrageous for two more reasons. First many of the schools were built on land donated to the church for educational purposes, not fund raising. Second, it ignores the fact that all church properties, including schools, are exempted from rates and taxes on the basis that they are used for charitable purposes. Charging rent would eliminate that justification.

  17. They must have stolen the LNP’s glossy policy booklet from 2013. Given the pond scum Lynton Crosby ran their campaign it would be no surprise.

    The 2015 Tory manifesto used the word “plan” 121 times, devoting a mere seven words to one aspect of this plan that would affect the lives of millions of voters.

    Jobson Groethe anyone ? 😆

    …something to bear in mind when you hear a Conservative replicant repeat the phrase “strong and stable” for the 37th time that day.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/28/theresa-may-snowflakes-health-and-safety-election

  18. Socrates
    It was going to be a bit difficult for me to get to Kapunda but I reckon I’ll make a special effort to get there and catch up with you.

  19. “This week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research have resulted in very slight movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, ”

    But, but, but all those important issues like immigration testing, Snowy battery, gas guarantee etc that produced those highly significant poll movement of 2PP by 1 percentage!

    Billbowe, your methodology is obviously in error as it doesn’t reflect the huge movements which those factors which the commenteriate and many bludgers believe are vote movers. Or perhaps too many bludgers are trapped in entrail-reading mode. God knows the political commentators are trapped there.

  20. BK
    Thanks. I will understand if you can’t make it, but great if you can. I will not be staying over, so there from lunch till about 3-4pm.

  21. Holy Toledo BK, what an effort! Thank you as always.

    When reading this one:

    Paula Matthewson says that Morrison has got his mojo back but Turnbull not so.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/04/28/scott-morrison-pre-budget-speech/

    If there is good debt and bad debt, and the Labor Party was excoriated for its level of debt, I wonder what that historical debt level would look like through the new prism of ‘good debt / bad debt’ ?

    Surely someone in the Labor Party has done the numbers?

    My bet, based on no evidence, is that bad debt would be less under the Labor regime.

  22. North Korea test-fired a ballistic missile on Saturday from a region north of its capital, but it appears to have failed, South Korea’s military said, defying intense pressure from the United States and the reclusive state’s main ally, China.

    An official at South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed the launch but did not immediately have any further information. Yonhap news agency said the missile appeared to have blown up a few seconds into flight.

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/north-korea-testfires-ballistic-missile-news-agency-reports-20170428-gvv8rq.html

  23. socrates @ #21 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 8:07 am

    BK
    Thanks. I will understand if you can’t make it, but great if you can. I will not be staying over, so there from lunch till about 3-4pm.

    I have just registered and like you I’ll be leaving after the lunch.
    Looking forward to meeting you after all these years of morning PB conversations!

  24. Mammoth effort, BK. Although I think most commentary can be replaced with cartoon corner – those pictures are worth 10,000 words each.

  25. Don

    My bet, based on no evidence, is that bad debt would be less under the Labor regime.

    My bet ,based on evidence, is that Scrott Morrison works on the definition “bad debt” = Labor debts, “good debt” = Liberal debt.

  26. Searching for something more cheering, I found this.

    “I’m not sure you Melbourne types fully realise what an awesome place you live in,” the letter started.

    “As a visitor last weekend from the Police State (formerly known as Sydney), I was almost in shock at the sight of all the people on the streets and the general friendly vibe.”

    “We came down to see the Book of Mormon,” he told Fairfax Media on Friday.

    “Everyone was standing outside the theatre with their drinks. If that had have been Sydney, the riot police would have been called.”

    “I couldn’t believe the laneway bars, to tell you the truth.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/swept-away-by-awesome-melbourne-jealous-sydneysider-offers-to-switch-homes-20170428-gvufog.html

  27. BK
    Thanks that sounds great. I’ll be disguised as a pudgy middle aged engineer.

    Don
    “If there is good debt and bad debt, and the Labor Party was excoriated for its level of debt, I wonder what that historical debt level would look like through the new prism of ‘good debt / bad debt’ ?”

    Yes so it follows from Morrison’s logic that there must be “good tsunamis” and “bas tsunamies”! I wonder which side we are going to be hit with in the budget? If the figures coming were going to be any good, he wouldn’t need to be building new goalposts now.

    Have a good day all.

  28. socrates @ #17 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 7:54 am

    Thanks BK for a huge effort. I’m looking forward to meeting you at Kapunda.
    That story on catholic bishops considering charging schools rent is outrageous for two more reasons. First many of the schools were built on land donated to the church for educational purposes, not fund raising. Second, it ignores the fact that all church properties, including schools, are exempted from rates and taxes on the basis that they are used for charitable purposes. Charging rent would eliminate that justification.

    So if they can afford to pay rent does that mean they don’t need Government money to operate?

  29. Morning all.

    Thanks BK for a huge effort today. What a silly article by Matthewson. Of course it’s easy for Abbott to ‘get his mojo back’ when he has zero responsibility and is answerable for nothing and to nobody.

  30. Chevron executives have confirmed that Australian taxpayers would be forced to subsidise the clean-up costs in the event of an oil spill in the Great Australian Bight during exploration.

    They say that under the terms of the petroleum resource rent tax, the costs of cleaning up oil spills from exploration wells in the area would be tax-deductible, and could be held over and “uplifted” into future years, and claimed against the company’s other projects.

    It means taxpayers would be forced to subsidise the clean-up of oil spills in the pristine region, paid for via a loss of future taxpayer revenue.

    Michael Fenner, Chevron Australia’s tax manager, confirmed the news to senators during a corporate tax avoidance hearing on Friday.

    Jason Ward from the Tax Justice Network has previously described this element of the PRRT system as an “absolute scandal”.

    “First we learn that we are giving away our natural resources to the world’s largest oil companies for free and now we know they can get tax credits for oil spills,” he has told Guardian Australia. “It is mind-boggling that this is actually how the PRRT works.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/29/great-australian-bight-taxpayers-would-have-to-subsidise-oil-spill-clean-ups-chevron-says?CMP=share_btn_tw

  31. don @ #22 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 8:21 am

    Holy Toledo BK, what an effort! Thank you as always.
    When reading this one:

    Paula Matthewson says that Morrison has got his mojo back but Turnbull not so.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/04/28/scott-morrison-pre-budget-speech/

    If there is good debt and bad debt, and the Labor Party was excoriated for its level of debt, I wonder what that historical debt level would look like through the new prism of ‘good debt / bad debt’ ?
    Surely someone in the Labor Party has done the numbers?
    My bet, based on no evidence, is that bad debt would be less under the Labor regime.

    The problem for this mob is the apparent lack of economic knowledge.
    As soon as Morrison’s asked a question it’s obvious that he doesn’t really understand what he’s talking about.

  32. Morning all

    My appreciation to BK for big the contributions as always and PhoenixRed for the latest on the Trump Imbroglio. On a daily basis, there is a drip drip on this saga and my hope is that it will result in the clearing out of Trump and his treasonous cronies from power!!

  33. victoria @ #34 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 9:07 am

    Morning all
    My appreciation to BK for big the contributions as always and PhoenixRed for the latest on the Trump Imbroglio. On a daily basis, there is a drip drip on this saga and my hope is that it will result in the clearing out of Trump and his treasonous cronies from power!!

    On your last point make sure you look at the Mark Knight cartoon!

  34. BK Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 9:08 am

    On your last point make sure you look at the Mark Knight cartoon!

    **************************************************
    Absolute gem of a cartoon BK ! – only trouble is he made them better looking than they are in real life ….

  35. Samantha Bee did a repeat stich up job on this clown the other night – and here is getting dudded again :

    White House considering options for removing ‘pain in the a**’ staffer Sebastian Gorka

    The Trump administration is considering options to relocate national security aide Sebastian Gorka from the White House to another federal agency, the Daily Beast reports

    One official told the Daily Beast that Gorka’s transfer has been “a pain in the ass.”

    Gorka also reportedly lied about his credentials, which includes a Ph.D in political science. According to Andrew Reynolds, a professor of political science at UNC who did extensive research on Gorka’s education, the national security aide’s Ph.D “is about as legitimate as if he had been awarded it by Trump University.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/white-house-considering-options-for-removing-pain-in-the-a-staffer-sebastian-gorka/

  36. Lizzie

    I did enjoy the Sydneysiders account of Melbourne. Of course Melbourne has enough problems of its own.
    I am usually in the city a few days a week and it does have a great vibe.
    Which reminded me that About a month ago, I had caught train in afternoon with a couple of friends. Train was packed. My friend was recounting a little story re her parents. Anyhow we started laughing. And the more we tried to suppress the laughter, the more we laughed. Because we were on the packed train it felt very embarrassing. But no fear, the laughter was contagious and other passengers joined in. When all calmed down, we apologised to those around us for the undignified display. Guffaws all around. Nah thanks for brightening up the trip home etc…..
    I loved Melbourne in that moment!

  37. Excellent advice on how to run a left-wing government:

    Your first steps will be breaking the power of current economic and political elites who are not willing to convincingly join you or at least let you rule without trying to sabotage you.

    You must do this all at once. When it happens, it happens to everyone it is going to happen to. This is Machiavelli’s dictum, and he was right. After it has happened, those who weren’t broken know they’re safe as long as they don’t get in your way.

    If the breaking keeps going on and on everyone who still has something to lose (and still, thus, has power) lives in fear. They must destroy you before you destroy them.

    Let’s give a concrete example. Assume Obama was really a left-winger. He gets into power in 2009, and he really wants to change things. He needs to take out the financial elite: Wall Street and the Big Banks.

    They’ve handed him the opportunity. Here’s part of how he does it: He declares all banks involved in the sub-prime fraud racket (all of the big ones most of the small ones) conspiracies under RICO.

    He then says that all the individual executives’ money are proceeds from crime and confiscates it. (This is 100 percent legal under laws as they exist). He charges them, and they are forced to use public defenders.

    They are now powerless. This is the second law of purges: Anyone you damage, you must destroy utterly. If you take away half their power, and leave them half, they will hate you forever and use their remaining power to destroy you.

    Leave them whole, or destroy them. The financial executives would have been destroyed, and win or lose in the courts, the next five to ten years of their lives would be consumed by personal legal nightmares.

    Again, this is a Machiavellian dictum.

    All of this will make many readers uneasy. It seems “mean.”

    Get out of the game. You aren’t fit for it. This is all mean. Millions of people die every year and millions more are ruined by the current system. If you’re in this game to win it, rather than feel good about yourself, you will have to play real power politics by the actual rules of the game.

    Too many left-wingers try to play by what they think the rules are. “We have a fair election every X years and the losers accept the result and don’t sabotage the winner (or do a coup).”

    Those aren’t the real rules. If the right is really losing, they will cheat and cheat massively. They will think nothing of running death squads, making a deal with the US to support guerrillas, and so on.

    You directly threaten their wealth and power if you are a real left-winger. Even if all you want is a 50s style social democracy with racial and gender equality, that would destroy almost all of what they have. They remember what FDR did to them, even if you don’t. They remember all the lost power and fortunes.

    It is not possible to have a fair, egalitarian, prosperous society, and have very rich and powerful elites. It cannot be done. Brandeis was exactly right when he said you can have democracy or great wealth in the hands of a few, but you can’t have both.

    Either you’re willing to do what it takes, including the ugly bits, or you aren’t. There are sometimes local exceptions, places where a lot of the ugly isn’t needed, but there aren’t a lot of those left in the world. This isn’t the post-war era and even then, for the South (as opposed to Scandinavia), actual egalitarian developed economies mostly weren’t allowed. You can ask Central and South America about that.

    Most left-wing movements get into power without having properly thought out what they’ll do once in power and without a realistic understanding of the deep lack of belief in democratic norms by their right-wing opponents.

    Break your enemy’s power. If you’re any sort of left-winger worth your salt, you ethically do not believe in huge concentrations of power and money in the hands of a few people anyway. Act on your beliefs.

    http://www.ianwelsh.net/7-rules-for-running-a-real-left-wing-government/

  38. lizzie @ #31 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 8:57 am

    Chevron executives have confirmed that Australian taxpayers would be forced to subsidise the clean-up costs in the event of an oil spill in the Great Australian Bight during exploration.
    They say that under the terms of the petroleum resource rent tax, the costs of cleaning up oil spills from exploration wells in the area would be tax-deductible, and could be held over and “uplifted” into future years, and claimed against the company’s other projects.

    That is just appalling.
    So we subsidise their negligence and/or incompetence.

    The other thing;

    The petroleum resource rent tax and other resource taxes, why isn’t this charged from the first molecule and then every other molecule taken, before their business tax liability is assessed making it a fixed cost in production?

    Surely the cost of extraction is irrelevant they are harvesting a non-replaceable resource and should pay for every bit of it.

  39. Barney In Go Dau

    Our government (of either flavour) has really let us down over our non-replaceable resources and the mining/exploration rules give carte blanche to exploiters. :sigh:

    Canavan is being ridiculous over the Westpac loan, and last night Barnaby went completely ballistic over lack of support for Adani. I wonder what he’s been promised by Gina???

  40. Now I have seen it all…….
    Many of the journos who have bought the Labor Debt Bad/Liberal Debt good mantra over the years, are now justifying their being totally sucked by yes, certainly all debt has to be paid back, but really, debt for infrastructure spend really is a ‘good’ thing, and we, the journos have always understood this.
    In other words, this mob again claim wit and wisdom above the rest of us and twist their position like a slithering snake. No wonder the press gallery, in general, has the credibility of a reformed drinker keeping some cooking brandy in the kitchen.

  41. lizzie Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 8:23 am

    “North Korea test-fired a ballistic missile on Saturday from a region north of its capital, but it appears to have failed.
    Yonhap news agency said the missile appeared to have blown up a few seconds into flight.”

    *************************************
    I wonder if the US is using some form of covert cyber and electric interference programs to self destruct these missiles before they can even get launched successfully ????

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