BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

Another week of stasis in the polls results in another stable reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

This week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research have resulted in very slight movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, although Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection as gains in Western Australia and South Australia balance out a loss in Queensland. The new leadership numbers from Newspoll see the preferred prime minister rating maintain its condition of dead calm since the election, and both leaders’ net approval ratings continue their slow downward trend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 15
1 2 3 … 15

  1. “Many of the journos who have bought the Labor Debt Bad/Liberal Debt good mantra over the years..” I don’t think most journalists in Australia buy anything, the are either genuine right-wingers or they are owned and do/think what their master’s tell them.
    Love the comments below Katharine Murphy’s sudden admission that she might have got it wrong years ago re Gillard. It seems that misogyny against one of her own, Kelly O’Dwyer is a step too far (not a problem when it happens to Labor women though, apparently).
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/28/if-good-women-conform-and-gillard-was-a-witch-then-im-ready-for-a-fight

  3. Don on good and bad debt, Keane did a rough comparison between recent Labor and Liberal debt, even under Howard they don’t look very good.
    The figures for capital expenditure and net debt have always been published in the budget papers.
    I’ll see if I can find it.

  5. BK
    Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 8:01 am
    Socrates
    It was going to be a bit difficult for me to get to Kapunda but I reckon I’ll make a special effort to get there and catch up with you.

    I wish I could get to Kapunda to meet the both of you. Perhaps another time. Thanks for your tireless efforts in keeping us informed and entertained on a daily basis BK; and thank you Socrates for your thoughtful and interesting posts most days.

  6. From last thread …
    don @ #718 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 9:05 pm

    P1’s posts are for everyone’s amusement only. They have no basis in reality.
    I can’t work out if P1 is very good indeed at maintaining a facade, or if P1 simply has no understanding of the topic.
    Doesn’t matter, good for a laugh in either case.

    I recommend you actually read the report before you post any more. Otherwise you will just make yourself look even more foolish than you do now. Start with the carbon abatement section (around page 26).

  8. Victoria
    Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 9:25 am
    Lizzie

    I did enjoy the Sydneysiders account of Melbourne. Of course Melbourne has enough problems of its own.
    I am usually in the city a few days a week and it does have a great vibe.
    Which reminded me that About a month ago, I had caught train in afternoon with a couple of friends. Train was packed. My friend was recounting a little story re her parents. Anyhow we started laughing. And the more we tried to suppress the laughter, the more we laughed. Because we were on the packed train it felt very embarrassing. But no fear, the laughter was contagious and other passengers joined in. When all calmed down, we apologised to those around us for the undignified display. Guffaws all around. Nah thanks for brightening up the trip home etc…..
    I loved Melbourne in that moment!

    Vic

    There used to be a lovely old chap who played the violin on the evening trains on our line (Hurstbridge). Did you ever encounter him? He always asked permission first and he was very good at the craft. People always seemed to enjoy his playing.

  10. Darn

    No. I never had the pleasure!

    Meanwhile the Hurstbridge line is finally getting duplication between Heidelberg and Rosanna, and more parking at Watsonia

  12. This latest report on Trump imbroglio as linked earlier, is just another reminder to Trump and his cronies, of where this is all headed……….

    The court papers say Steele decided to pass on the information he had collected because it was “of considerable importance in relation to alleged Russian interference in the US presidential election”, that it “had implications for the national security of the US and the UK” and “needed to [be] analysed and further investigated/verified”.

  13. Wow BK! That’s what you call links!

    Re Sydney. It doesn’t help that much of the city, including the CBD is a construction zone.

  14. PvO’s column today.

    While baby boomers are, as already mentioned, retiring en masse, most will continue to pay absolutely no tax on earnings in their superannuation accounts. That is the political reality. When I say most, we are talking about upward of nine of out 10 retirees living off their superannuation savings, and that’s before considering all those other over-60s living off the pension.

    A small number of retirees will be required to pay a very small share of tax, courtesy of the ­reforms the government ushered through soon after the election last year.

    The changes have left a rhetorically loud (if numerically small) grouping of elites very ­unhappy. They believe that years of earning huge salaries, and presumably often minimising their taxes when doing so, have earned them the right to pay no taxes whatsoever in retirement — notwithstanding the costs an ageing society im­poses on the rest of us in policy areas such as health.

    Let’s put what they are collectively moaning about into context. How dare O’Dwyer support ­reforms that would see a 15 per cent tax on superannuation invest­ment earnings beyond the earnings on the first $3.2 million invested by couples (half that for individuals). That, according to O’Dwyer’s critics, is an unacceptable reform. I say it continues to be an unbelievably low rate of tax.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/baby-boomers-prove-masters-of-the-superannuation-tax-scare/news-story/7d952f2ae43210222a225e386228c097

    He also takes a shot at Credlin for criticising him for not allowing her to give comment in his opinion piece last week.

  15. Sohar, Murphy’s latest mea culpa is a weird one, and as usual she’s getting a largely deserved bollocking in the comments. Her reasons for not calling out the feral sexism directed at Gillard at the time, doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

  16. player one @ #57 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 10:14 am

    trog sorrenson @ #54 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 10:05 am

    Fun Video: Tom Gleeson on rooftop solar, and ridiculous retailer business models
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/video-tom-gleeson-on-rooftop-solar-and-ridiculous-retailer-business-models-68050/

    Still waiting for that apology, Trog.

    Apology for what?
    Demanding apologies without any justification is a typical bully tactic.
    Tried on me often enough and it doesn’t work and never will.

  17. Hmmm. It seems Don and Trog have scarpered. Sorry to bore everyone else with this, but here is the report (released yesterday) that is under discussion. It could become quite significant in the days ahead, so it is worth understanding a few of the key points …

    http://www.energynetworks.com.au/sites/default/files/entr_final_report_april_2017.pdf

    This report discusses options to get to net zero emissions by 2050. It describes a “plausible” roadmap to get there on page 55, which shows only a minor increase (if you regard a 50% increase as ‘minor’) in gas generation along the way. However, there is a reason this scenario is marked only as ‘plausible’ – and that is that this scenario is not at all realistic. For instance, this scenario does not actually meet our Paris C02 abatement commitments. Merely getting to zero emissions by 2050 is not the goal – reducing C02 emissions by 2030 is. This is something those keen to push a particular technology always conveniently forget – not much point of getting to zero emissions by 2050 is there is no-one left by the time you do!

    Meeting our Paris commitments is discussed starting on page 24 of the report, and it shows that to do so we will typically need a much larger increase in gas generation – approximately a 250% increase. Precisely how much depends on which scenario plays out – 250% is the minimum increase of all the scenarios modeled. In fact, the growth in gas generation outstrips the growth in renewables in all scenarios. This is because renewables cannot realistically scale up in time, whereas gas generation can.

    I apologize to those bludgers not interested in this subject, but I have no doubt the report will be misrepresented in the media in precisely the way that RenewEconomy have misrepresented it, and that Don, Trog and others have tried to misrepresent it here. The report actually seems designed to be misrepresented this way, by having the “plausible” scenario – one which conveniently seems to show that we can continue to burn coal for decades yet – given early prominence on page iii, with no explanation that this scenario would not meet our C02 abatement commitments.

  18. victoria @ #60 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 10:32 am

    Darn
    No. I never had the pleasure!
    Meanwhile the Hurstbridge line is finally getting duplication between Heidelberg and Rosanna, and more parking at Watsonia

    It is simply absurd that there is ANY single line track in the metropolitan area. It should be double track all the way to Hurstbridge. I don’t know if any upgrade work has happened, but the Hurstbridge line used to be rumoured to be the least safe in the Melbourne metropolitan area. Disgraceful.

  19. Adrian:

    I am pleased that Murphy is woman enough to man up and admit her mistake. I wish more in the press gallery would do the same when it came to their failure in recognising the sexism and misogyny Gillard experienced.

  21. I suspect Katharine Murphy, with cynicism honed from years in the CPG, really did think that the misogyny directed at Julia Gillard and other women in politics was only being done for political effect by the male perpetrators. After all, a lot of political outrage does actually fit this description and when you’ve been immersed in it for years, you might assume the latest utterance is part of the same phenomenon.

    It has suddenly hit her that they REALLY MEANT IT.

  22. Thanks BK, Oakes’ column on how Turnbull’s lacklustre defense of the gas reservation particularly when compared to Trump is interesting.

    I think Turnbull’s problem and the rest of the government is that their heart isn’t in this fight, consumers and small business are a second order concern. Only important in the lead up to an election.
    What they don’t like is putting their business donors offside. In this case they have the strongly lobbying resource, energy sector and on the other big business who are concerned about prices but to to the same level as the gas companies.
    They had to do something, so far the response from the resource companies has been relatively muted so there is probably enough wiggle room for them to maintain their profits. Has anyone heard from Carnavan since the announcement ?

    We should be paying the export parity price, or less if in a contract, but we simply do not know what these prices are, the gas exporters do not publish them and the government hasn’t made an effort to find out.
    Similarly we don’t know the cost of piping gas across the country, the pipeline companies do not publish this.

  24. Ajm:

    Or possibly being so deeply entrenched in politics like Murphy is, she’s so used to that kind of behaviour that she just saw it as normal. Whereas those of us in the real world were simply appalled at what Gillard had to endure.

  27. BK (Only took 2 and a 1/4 hours today!)
    Don’t worry BK the Fair Work Mob have not got to us yet.
    You are still entitled to the usual penalty rates on Saturdays.

  29. Nicholas,

    Nothing you have ever posted here has much credibility, but you seem to be becoming a complete fantasist.

    The ‘people’ don’t wish to have far-left extremism imposed upon them. You mistake the fantasies of a group of extremists for the desire of the majority. You seem to have a total contempt for the people you purport to support, and appear to be heading towards the idea that your views need to be imposed, and anyone who gets in the way will be dealt with.

  30. victoria Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 11:41 am

    PhoenixRed

    Have you seen latest from Louise Mensch?

    https://patribotics.blog/2017/04/29/sources-boris-epshteyn-paid-russian-hackers-for-both-team-trump-and-fsb/

    *******************************************
    THANK YOU, Victoria – very, very interesting …

    I liked this bit regarding the FBI :

    Sources close to the intelligence community indicate that the indictment of Pyotr Levashov in Connecticut this week represents the FBI ‘making its move’ to begin proceedings against Trump and his team, as, these sources say, Trump and many of those working for his campaign are well aware that they are tied by data to the criminal activities of Mr. Levashov

    and this :

    Multiple, other sources with links to the intelligence communities of more than one country, who were not the original sources on my exclusive story that Carter Page took a recording of Donald Trump to Moscow, confirm that this story is true.

  31. BK – Big effort. Tks.

    Darn – Does this mean

    and thank you Socrates for your thoughtful and interesting posts most days.

    … That Soc’s is crap on other days? {Grin}

  32. john reidy @ #53 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 9:56 am

    Don on good and bad debt, Keane did a rough comparison between recent Labor and Liberal debt, even under Howard they don’t look very good.
    The figures for capital expenditure and net debt have always been published in the budget papers.
    I’ll see if I can find it.

    Thanks John.

  33. confessions @ #74 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 11:49 am

    Ajm:
    Or possibly being so deeply entrenched in politics like Murphy is, she’s so used to that kind of behaviour that she just saw it as normal. Whereas those of us in the real world were simply appalled at what Gillard had to endure.

    I’ll never forget reading Murphy’s explicit struggle to understand why the rest of the world did not see the ‘misogyny’ speech as a cheap political stunt when it was so obvious to her and her colleagues.

  34. player one @ #56 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 10:13 am

    From last thread …
    don @ #718 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 9:05 pm

    P1’s posts are for everyone’s amusement only. They have no basis in reality.
    I can’t work out if P1 is very good indeed at maintaining a facade, or if P1 simply has no understanding of the topic.
    Doesn’t matter, good for a laugh in either case.

    I recommend you actually read the report before you post any more. Otherwise you will just make yourself look even more foolish than you do now. Start with the carbon abatement section (around page 26).

    P1, what part of

    ‘you are a total waste of time to engage with, and know sweet f-all about energy’

    don’t you understand?

    But thanks for the laughs, I appreciate it.

  35. This is the (pay walled) article on debt from this weeks Crikey, by Alan AustinI was thinking of.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/04/28/australias-net-worth-collapses-to-an-all-time-low/
    The article focuses on net worth – I guess this is what is left after you subtract gross debt from assets.

    In his last budget, Treasurer Scott Morrison forecast that this financial year would end with Commonwealth government net worth at negative $300.9 billion. That is nearly $40 billion worse than the lowest level Labor reached during the depths of the global financial crisis. With net worth down to -$423.9 billion in February, that target seems unreachable.
    The Coalition has drastically worsened the nation’s net worth, and thus doomed future administrations to crippling interest payments on the bad debt, or cuts to services, or punitive tax hikes, or all of the above.

    Also from before the GFC:

    When Labor took office from the hapless Howard government in 2007, the net worth position was a modest $15.2 billion in the black. Within eight months, new treasurer Wayne Swan improved this to nearly $80 billion — just before the onset of the GFC.

  36. Don
    re P1

    you are a total waste of time to engage with, and know sweet f-all about energy

    Or as Robin would say:
    Holy Waste of Energy Batman!

  39. PhoenixRed

    Yep. Very interesting indeed.

    Btw I just watched a Rachel Maddow segment from other night, where she goes over the Flynn sacking etc. And the Devin Nunes and Jason Chaffetz sagas to this whole imbroglio. It is worthwhile and a clear indication of how this imbroglio is playing out.

  40. “The Coalition is delivering the necessary resources, leadership and policies to reduce and ultimately end domestic violence,” Cash claimed.

    But those hoping to see a new day in Australia’s approach to combating domestic violence will be disappointed. After more than three years in office, the government has displayed little desire to address the issue with the seriousness it deserves.

    Time after time, the government has flagged debilitating cuts to legal aid, left the sector sweating – sometimes for years – before dropping them at the last minute when they prove untenable. Stacked against the government’s own poor record, Cash’s boasts ring disturbingly hollow.

    Cash seems more interested in defeating the Unions than acting as Minister for Women. I suppose she’s typical of the Liberal females who can’t see what the problem is, because she has risen in power herself.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-governments-commitment-to-domestic-violence-funding-is-hollow-20170427-gvtjn0.html

  41. That story by Speers might be good but does he live by it? Not from what I have seen. He still panders to the political right wing … even if it is unconscious … by making the centre left politicians live up to a higher moral standard, as is evidenced by his lines of questioning in interviews.

    This is where I get annoyed by media trying to defend its territory. It does not really examine itself except from the viewpoint of awards. I doubt any of them critically review their own interviews … motion is always forward instead.

    And on fake news … they let politicians get away with ‘spin lines’ uncontested … lines that most of us see through but the journalist, with his list of set questions, lets it go through to the keeper rather than challenging an obvious ‘fake line’.

    THAT is what makes so many watching, so cynical.

  42. Karen Middleton‏Verified account
    @KarenMMiddleton

    So if I accessed a cop’s phone records w no “ill will or bad intent” just out of curiosity, that wld be fine, right?

  43. john reidy @ #85 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 12:29 pm

    This is the (pay walled) article on debt from this weeks Crikey, by Alan AustinI was thinking of.

    Thanks John. That pretty much covers it.

    Though I’d still like someone like Ross Gittens to run his ruler over the good debt – bad debt positions of the last Labor Government and the present ScoMo position.

  44. P1

    Why is it you creeps always get insulting whenever you are shown to be wrong? Are your egos that fragile?

    Can’t be bothered taking all day to refute your serpentine distortions.

  45. player one @ #88 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 12:32 pm

    don @ #84 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 12:20 pm

    ‘you are a total waste of time to engage with, and know sweet f-all about energy’
    don’t you understand?

    Why is it you creeps always get insulting whenever you are shown to be wrong? Are your egos that fragile?

    My statement was one of the situation, no insults involved. Just the facts, ma’am, just the facts. And my ego is in great shape, thanks for asking.

    ‘Creeps’ sounds like an insult though.

    Not a problem, I’ve been insulted by experts, and you don’t rate.

  46. PhoenixRed

    And in relation to this Boris character……..

    Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson
    Replying to @SINcere_NYC and @LouiseMensch
    Comey visited WH on 3/24. Next day, Politico reported Bag

  47. Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson
    Replying to @SINcere_NYC and @LouiseMensch
    Comey visited WH on 3/24. Next day, Politico reported Bag

  48. Damn doesn’t work.

    Anyhow context of tweet is that Comey visiting WH and next day this Boris guy suddenly departed team Trump.

  49. Lenore Taylor on how the Government continue to pander to its base on the unemployed.

    She finishes with this hilarious propitiation.

    Alternatively, we could rely on the evidence and the experts to design policy to best help people find work, rather than the assumption that most voters are hungry to see the jobless vilified.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2017/apr/29/coalition-panders-to-prejudice-on-welfare-as-it-throws-ideological-red-meat-at-its-base

  50. ‘He’s in over his combover’: Bill Maher panel rips ‘baby’ Trump for whining about his job

    At the top of Maher’s Friday night “Real Time,” he noted Trump had no idea that “presidenting could be so hard. It looked so easy in the movies,” he said rubbing his eyes.

    “Here’s what he said he doesn’t like: He’s isolated, he misses driving and when you say stuff, people check if it’s true,” Maher joked, calling Trump a “whiny little b*tch.”

    He described phase one as Trump saying “it’s so easy to fix.” Phase two is “Who knew? Nobody knew it was hard.” But phase three is basically going back to all of former President Barack Obama’s policies he trashed. “He’s like the Manchurian Candidate, but you don’t even have to hypnotize him!”

    But the worst part is that Trump knows nothing.

    “He doesn’t even know the basics, and I mean the basics,” Maher said. “Like how a bill becomes a law. How many branches of government we have. He didn’t know what Brexit was. He didn’t know who the Kurds were, the nuclear triad. The president is a baby with a mobile above his head. He’s just learning and learning.”

    During the opener of the panel discussion, Republican Tara Setmayer noted that Trump is clearly “in over his comb over.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/hes-in-over-his-combover-bill-maher-panel-rips-baby-trump-for-whining-about-his-job/

Comments Page 2 of 15
1 2 3 … 15

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *