BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

Another week of stasis in the polls results in another stable reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

This week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research have resulted in very slight movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, although Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection as gains in Western Australia and South Australia balance out a loss in Queensland. The new leadership numbers from Newspoll see the preferred prime minister rating maintain its condition of dead calm since the election, and both leaders’ net approval ratings continue their slow downward trend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  2. This abominable metadata regime was introduced with the backing of the federal ALP. This kind of abuse of people’s data (of which we are only seeing a small tip of the iceberg) was an easily foreseeable consequence of the system that was put in place.

  3. victoria Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 12:58 pm
    Damn doesn’t work.
    Anyhow context of tweet is that Comey visiting WH and next day this Boris guy suddenly departed team Trump.

    *************************************
    In Louise’s latest – it clearly indicates the FBI were intercepting a LOT of stuff : and I think they know a lot more than has been so far publically revealed – hence Comey’s actions … just get on with showing Trump the WH door …… hopefully in cuffs and an orange prison suit to match his hair

    Sources further attest that the FBI intercepted the traffic between the Alfa Bank server and Mr. Trump’s server, and know exactly what was transmitted

    Sources further report that there were at least two other “mother servers”, other than the one with the Trump Tower IP address, and the Spectrum Health server that simultaneously pinged Alfa Bank. Sources indicate that one of these two servers was at Spectrum Health, and transferred messages to Russia via a method called “iodine xfer transfer”, but that the US intelligence community intercepted all such messages

  4. I must admit that for once I enjoyed the Dogs being better at throwing the footie, and getting away with it, than kicking it.
    Some of last night’s decisions were simply appalling.
    The Dogs have raised ‘losing the ball’ in the tackle to a whole new level of creativity.
    If only they had been allowed to throw the ball through the Big Sticks for a goal they would have won the game!

  5. Nicholas is actually quite a useful poster – provided rational Greens actually realize where the Nicholas Greens of the world are taking them:
    1. Electoral relevance permanently at the margins.
    2. Deprive Labor of oxygen.
    3. Increase the chances of the Trumps, Turnbulls, Mays and Le Pens of the world.
    4. The environment means nothing. (You will have noticed that the Nicholas Greens actually have little or no idea about environmental issues at all. They regard people with an abiding interest in the environment contemptuously as ‘tree tories’. Class warfare is the bag of the Nicholas Greens.
    Now, for the Nicholas Greens of the world it makes perfect sense to state that there is no difference between Shorten and Turnbull or between Trump and Clinton or between Le Pen and Macron.
    The fact is that they would PREFER Trump and Le Pen to be in the saddle because that is what dialectical materialism tell them.
    I wonder how long it takes before sensible Greens realize that they are being taken for chumps by the Nicholas Greens?

  7. boerwar @ #104 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 1:07 pm

    I must admit that for once I enjoyed the Dogs being better at throwing the footie, and getting away with it, than kicking it.
    Some of last night’s decisions were simply appalling.
    The Dogs have raised ‘losing the ball’ in the tackle to a whole new level of creativity.
    If only they had been allowed to throw the ball through the Big Sticks for a goal they would have won the game!

    I thought Stevie Johnson’s disallowed try for the Giants was an appalling decision. 🙂

  8. don @ #84 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 12:20 pm

    player one @ #56 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 10:13 am

    From last thread …
    don @ #718 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 9:05 pm

    P1’s posts are for everyone’s amusement only. They have no basis in reality.
    I can’t work out if P1 is very good indeed at maintaining a facade, or if P1 simply has no understanding of the topic.
    Doesn’t matter, good for a laugh in either case.

    I recommend you actually read the report before you post any more. Otherwise you will just make yourself look even more foolish than you do now. Start with the carbon abatement section (around page 26).

    P1, what part of
    ‘you are a total waste of time to engage with, and know sweet f-all about energy’
    don’t you understand?
    But thanks for the laughs, I appreciate it.

    P1 has a considerable number of posters on here on her/his STFU list, consequently, s/he can’t follow any conversation that involves several of the more active followers on this board. S/he then wonders why posters on here who are not currently on her/his STFU, who do have significant knowledge of the topics discussed, particularly renewable energy, run out of patience with her/him and call her/him out on it. S/he interprets this as unjust abuse and adds the poster to her/his STFU list.

  11. Once more with feeling. I got a new error message this time, with colour graphics which explained nothing, as usual. Makes a change, I guess.

    grimace @ #108 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 1:41 pm

    P1 has a considerable number of posters on here on her/his STFU list, consequently, s/he can’t follow any conversation that involves several of the more active followers on this board. S/he then wonders why posters on here who are not currently on her/his STFU, who do have significant knowledge of the topics discussed, particularly renewable energy, run out of patience with her/him and call her/him out on it. S/he interprets this as unjust abuse and adds the poster to her/his STFU list.

    With any luck, everyone on PB will be added to P1’s STFU list, and P1 will run around in ever decreasing circles until the inevitable denoument.

  12. Bill Maher’s advice to liberals: ‘Stop trying to win over Trump voters with facts — you’re wasting your breath’

    “Trump supporters aren’t changing their minds because the problem isn’t in the mind. It’s lower. It’s emotional,” Maher said. “He could have Ann Frank’s skeleton in his closet. They’d all vote for him again.”

    Asking why, Maher walked through the cultural crisis many of the undervalued white voters face that Trump managed to harness. “I think it’s a gut feeling that the world has changed and they don’t like it,” he said. “Trump is going to change it back to the way it was.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/bill-mahers-stop-trying-to-win-over-trump-voters-with-facts-youre-wasting-your-breath/

  13. I am trying to put Nicholas on stfu because I’m tired of scrolling past his incessant criticism, which is quite irrelevant to me, but it doesn’t seem to work. Has something changed in the stfu world?

  15. Victoria
    Thanks again for the Trumpgatelinks to the on line sites and bloggers. It’s interesting that this whole sage has fallen off the MSM radar. For a week it’s all been about 100 days and North Korea. Hardy a peep from cable news on NYT etc. MSNBC through Maddow are sticking with it.
    If Mensch is even close to the truth, one would expect her ” sources” would be talking to a wider audience.
    I just hope she is not a nutter. I give her the benefit of any doubt.

  17. Back from a visit to the Carter Holt Harvey picket line in Myrtleford.

    This is building up to be a huge dispute. The workers have been trying to negotiate an EBA for nearly a year now. When it was obvious talks weren’t getting anywhere, and they voted (AEC, secret ballot) for industrial action, the company locked them out.

    Michael O’Connor, National head of the CFMEU, addressed the workers today. He emphasised that this is a struggle the workers MUST win, and therefore they will be supported by the greater union movement.

    Suggestions that Sally McManus and Bill Shorten might be visiting soon…

  25. Dwh – Trying to beat up gas company shares and corning the market in STFU usage at the same time must be enough to keep anyone busy.

  26. poroti:

    She may well be next time around. Trump has been making noises that he reckons she’ll be his opponent in 4 year’s time.

  30. grimace @ #108 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 1:41 pm

    —
    P1 has a considerable number of posters on here on her/his STFU list, consequently, s/he can’t follow any conversation that involves several of the more active followers on this board. S/he then wonders why posters on here who are not currently on her/his STFU, who do have significant knowledge of the topics discussed, particularly renewable energy, run out of patience with her/him and call her/him out on it. S/he interprets this as unjust abuse and adds the poster to her/his STFU list.

    This is a methodology pioneered by Confessions and picked up by P1.
    It often leads to hilarious results and makes the STFU list practitioner look like a goose.
    Correction… even more of a goose.

  31. Al Pal Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 2:21 pm

    If Mensch is even close to the truth, one would expect her ” sources” would be talking to a wider audience.
    I just hope she is not a nutter. I give her the benefit of any doubt.

    ****************************************
    What’s the saying, Al, about a fine line between genius and madness ?????

    I think she is a very strange person – who seems to be on here tweeting 48 hours/day and 10 days/week …..

    She has been on the money with everything so far and I think she has a deep worldwide network of “assets” feeding stuff directly to her rather than the press – she opens up about an issue that no-one else has got ….. and the run of the mill press pick it up days later ….

    I hope all her efforts bring to heel all those sleazbags , both domestically and internationally, who have done so much damage to subvert the integrity of the US electoral system ……as well as other *systems* now or in the future,,,,

  32. Zoomster,

    If you are around I was wondering what the background is to the local lockout of the Union workforce ?

    Is it a attempt by the company to get rid of the Union workforce and bring in cheaper contract staff or OS workers ?

    Cheers.

  34. Poroti – It seems that due to the age of some of the cars the ‘recall’ message is not getting through to lots of owners.

  36. PhoenixRed:

    I don’t think Mensch is a nutter, but she does seem to have an obsessive personality. Which is probably a good thing seeing as she’s like a dog with a bone over the Trump stuff.

  38. How very sad……not –

    Former federal MP and media personality Ross Cameron has lost an appeal against his suspension from the Liberal party for making critical public comments about NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian.

    The NSW Liberals state executive suspended him from the party in February for four and a half years for comments he made about Ms Berejiklian when she was Treasurer.

    The suspension stands with no further right of appeal.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/exfederal-mp-ross-cameron-loses-appeal-against-suspension-from-nsw-liberals-20170429-gvvc22.html

  40. ‘fess

    I don’t think Mensch is a nutter, but she does seem to have an obsessive personality.

    She must be getting close to naming 50% of the people who have ever been to Washington as being involved.

  41. Doyley

    Seems to be an attempt by the company to break the union.

    They claim to be running at a loss and thus not able to fund any rise in wages – but they’ve claimed that every EBA.

    Apparently the workers accepted less than they wanted for the last EBAs to support the company, with a ‘we’ll see you right’ understanding – and of course the present management says that that had nothing to do with them.

  43. So a far left candidate will go into an election campaign either (a) saying that anyone who earns above a certain amount will be first against the wall when they’re elected or (b) lying.

    “When they came for the rich, I wasn’t rich….”

  45. Thanks Dan G. I’ve gotten about halfway through via individual clips, but it’s always good to watch the show in full in one go.

  47. CTar1

    Yes, I thought that it was just new cars not ones dating back to last century. Last century, how i like using that phrase.

  48. lizzie @ #113 Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 2:17 pm

    I am trying to put Nicholas on stfu because I’m tired of scrolling past his incessant criticism, which is quite irrelevant to me, but it doesn’t seem to work. Has something changed in the stfu world?

    It is easy to miss a beginning space when you copy the name from the blog.

    There must be no space between the vertical lines and the name of the poster you wish to STFU.

    It has caught me out a few times.

  49. Al Pal

    what fess and PhoenixRed have said about Louise Mensch. She reported on Flynn, and not long after he resigns. She reported on Sessions then he recuses himself. She reported on Nunes, he subsequently recuses himself. She reports on Chaffetz and he then decides a 12 year old foot injury is going to keep him away from Washington for 5 weeks. She reported on Boris E and he ended up leaving his role at WH. She reported on Assange and Wikileaks, as working in collaboration with the Kremlin, Weeks later CIA outs them as hostile entity working with the Kremlin.
    Call her what you will, but she has been on the money so far.

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