Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

After a career-threatening result for Malcolm Turnbull three weeks ago, Newspoll records the Coalition bouncing back to near-competitiveness.

Newspoll records a much improved result for the Coalition, with Labor’s two-party lead cut from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 37%, Labor is down two to 35%, One Nation are steady on 10%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 30% and down two on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down one to 29% and up one to 57%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has improved from 40-33 to 43-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1819. Report from The Australian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

925 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Exclusive: Powerful Russian Partner Boasts Of Ongoing Access To Trump Family

    “I have nothing to do with Russia,” Donald Trump bellowed to thousands of frenzied supporters at a Tampa, Florida rally last October. The truth, it seems, is a bit more complicated.

    In an exclusive interview with FORBES, Emin Agalarov—a Russian pop singer, real estate mogul and son of one of the country’s richest people—described an ongoing relationship with the Trump family, including post-election contact with the president himself.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/noahkirsch/2017/03/20/russian-billionaire-family-trump-ties-ongoing/#2b43559e69b3

  2. BK

    Barnaby the voice of reason in the L&NP party room.

    Yep, how f’ken strange! If you don’t mention it no one asks … if you do, then questions come up, … but no one cares about it.

  3. PhoenixRed
    “Tramp is a flim-flam huckster that sold those trusting red state people a big bottle of snake oil and it make take some time to filter through to them that they got gypped – and when they lose their health care, their meals on wheels ….. and no new factories/jobs in their town or state …… then the truth will eventually get through to them.”

    Hope makes a great breakfast, but a poor supper. If after 4 years the factories are still closed, and the Rust Belt is still in a state of economic stagnation, then it’s going to be difficult (but not impossible) for Trump to find someone else to blame.

  4. Trog
    “Natural selection at work (almost).
    Teen Admits He Jumped Into Crocodile-Infested River To Impress Girl
    “There was a lot of blood. A lot of bone. It was just pretty horrendous.””

    I hope the crocodile is okay.

  5. FBI’s Russian-influence probe includes a look at far-right news sites

    Federal investigators are examining whether far-right news sites played any role last year in a Russian cyber operation that dramatically widened the reach of news stories — some fictional — that favored Donald Trump’s presidential bid, two people familiar with the inquiry say.

    Operatives for Russia appear to have strategically timed the computer commands, known as “bots,” to blitz social media with links to the pro-Trump stories at times when the billionaire businessman was on the defensive in his race against Democrat Hillary Clinton, these sources said.

    The bots’ end products were largely millions of Twitter and Facebook posts carrying links to stories on conservative internet sites such as Breitbart News and InfoWars, as well as on the Kremlin-backed RT News and Sputnik News, the sources said. Some of the stories were false or mixed fact and fiction, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the bot attacks are part of an FBI-led investigation into a multifaceted Russian operation to influence last year’s elections.

    Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article139695453.html#storylink=cpy

  6. Zoomster,

    Small business groups in South Australia were offered a enterprise bargaining template by the SDA to cover their employees. If sussessful in SA the SDA was going to roll the offer out Australia wide.

    Not one group took up the offer so any anger about unfairness from small business is bullshit. They do not care about their staff ( pat on the back for those small business operators who have declared they will not reduce rates ).

    Cheers.

  7. The idea that pesticides are essential to feed a fast-growing global population is a myth, according to UN food and pollution experts.

    A new report, being presented to the UN human rights council on Wednesday, is severely critical of the global corporations that manufacture pesticides, accusing them of the “systematic denial of harms”, “aggressive, unethical marketing tactics” and heavy lobbying of governments which has “obstructed reforms and paralysed global pesticide restrictions”.

    The report says pesticides have “catastrophic impacts on the environment, human health and society as a whole”, including an estimated 200,000 deaths a year from acute poisoning. Its authors said: “It is time to create a global process to transition toward safer and healthier food and agricultural production.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/07/un-experts-denounce-myth-pesticides-are-necessary-to-feed-the-world

  8. Trog purely in terms of $/KWhr batteries have a way to go to match pumped hydro. We’ll see. I’m still interested to see if the solid state electrolyte plus sodium is a goer. Looks like a few manufacturing issues but would be good.

    I should explain I’m also interested in batteries for use in rocket engines and space vehicles.

    Did you see the New Zealander’s (Rocket Labs) Rutherford engine. It removes the single most failure prone part of a rocket engine – the hot gas turbine – and replaces it with electric motors powered by Li-Ion batteries.

    A few tweaks could see that scaled or applied to must-never-fail engines like those on a Mars descent/ascent vehicle

  9. Those who think Trump is on the skids in the US should take a bit of a breather.

    I am with Kakuru and PhoenixRED on this.

    Apart from the steady downward trajectory of his netstats, their are 2 things that have changed since the election campaign. The first is the idea that Trump would turn into a statesman after the election. The 2nd is the idea that Hillary would win anyway.

    With optional voting it doesn’t matter that Trump is still clinging onto his nutters, any Trump opponent will turn up to vote next time, no matter how far behind he is in the polls.

    I also doubt any Trump opponent will cop the white-anting from the so-called Lefties who constantly bagged Hillary on Trump’s behalf.

  10. Trog

    Natural selection at work (almost).

    Gasp! Is this the equivalent of climbing on a roof, and ripping off a doG fearing solar panel, and chucking it into your kind to the planet swimming pool?

  11. Question

    So called Lefties is right. First you have to weed out the Russian operatives and the gullible falling for the Russian lines.

    Media will be reporting such things with more clarity in future US elections

  12. Just a comment on Trump’s popularity. The real issue is not what happens in just under four years time. Rather, it is what happens in the mid-terms in just under 2 years time. Trump can keep his rusted-ons for some time yet, but they are a relatively small and, indeed, reducing number. In the battles for Congress and down-ballot elections, it can make all the difference.

  13. Go ahead. Read what the former boss of Hazelwood says P1 🙂 Dare ya! Ih RenewEconomy reported it? Can’t have happened 🙂

  14. CTar

    The rationale behind my question about Porter is “who else”

    Bishop the loyal deputy? Not up to it. Morrison is damaged goods. Dutton is unelectable in my view. The rest of the country would just laugh at Pyne. Abbott doesn’t bear thinking about.

    Greg Hunt would suit Victorians.

    But the right wing will want one of their own and Porter is mean and nasty and right wing enough and certainly has the ambition.

    I believe that one thing helping Turnbull is the possible replacements. None are much good.

  15. Sorry, pressed before I thought that comment through fully. It is the growing opposition to Trump and the reduction in his followers that will make all the difference to anyone in Congress and down-ballot who are seen as his enablers.

  16. Whether Trump stands or falls during the 4 year term is no longer of such importance it was in the past for the Republicans. It looks like they will get their Supreme Court pick and that is a real, locked in, advantage for their cause no matter what happens to Trump.
    And, if Pence gets to step up to replace Trump then his damage to the US will be even greater than Trumps.

    Agree with the point about the judge. But nobody could be worse than Trump. Perhaps Pence would have worse policy, but Trump has crap policy AND is trashing the integrity of the office. Everything I hear about Trump makes me laugh. He has turned POTUS into a joke. While that is all very amusing, I think it would be healthier if I was getting angry (at someone like Pence).

  17. trog sorrenson @ #576 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 11:22 am

    Ex Hazelwood boss says solar + storage already cheaper than gas

    Let’s put a little reality behind this nonsense, shall we?

    From AEMO, published this month … https://goo.gl/sZKjY6

    Natural gas-fuelled combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) remain the lowest cost new generation regardless of mode of operation (continuous or more peaking)

    So …

    Gas = $83 /MWh
    Solar + storage = $110/MWh to $130/ MWh

    Even wind + storage is cheaper than solar. But of course, you don’t want wind do you? You want solar or nothing.

  18. Natural selection at work (almost).

    Teen Admits He Jumped Into Crocodile-Infested River To Impress Girl

    I saw the girl interviewed on the news the other day. She basically disowned the entire incident, sledged the guy as stupid (which he pretty much is). Parting words were something along the lines of “I feel for the kid, but…”.

    A bit harsh, considering he’s already been chewed up and spit out by the croc. Now he’s doubly rejected.

  19. TPOF

    Due to Comey comments on wire tap its on official record that Trump is a serial liar.

    This will undo the trust factor. Trump either has to fire Comey and Justice Department and Intelligence community that confirm that on the record. A bit hard to fire the British GCHQ operatives for making such statements too.

    That alone means Trump’s Presidency is at an end. Its just how long before the death throes stop.

  20. Cud Chewer

    Trog purely in terms of $/KWhr batteries have a way to go to match pumped hydro. We’ll see.

    Agree, but my point is that the $/KWh are only part of the equation. A business case has to be seen in the context of the market, and predictable costs.
    One thing I didn’t include in the list was the price of gas. If you develop a business model based on solar PV plus storage the margins may be slightly lower up front, but the risk is greatly reduced as you know exactly what your costs are going to be.
    Re solid state.
    Solid state, sodium etc looks great but it will take some years before it goes into manufacture. I think they are still researching the cathode design.

  21. Guytaur

    So called Lefties is right. First you have to weed out the Russian operatives and the gullible falling for the Russian lines.

    Careful about moving into McCarthyism territory. Disagree with someone ? Roll out “Russian dupe” accusations.

  22. CTAr
    Hastie is better placed than four or five others but if the voters maintain the rage he would be nervous.

    The GST issue will not go away if the treatment Turnbull has been given today is a sign.

  23. The coalition party room has voted to support the changes to 18c.

    Will the moderates stand up ? Will Barnaby stand up ?

    All this angst for absolutely nothing.

    I support the retention of 18c but as a main stream hip pocket issue it really does not rate. The coalition has voted to elevate this issue to the headlines and, yet, it has little chance of success through the senate but will leave unemployed and cash strapped Aussies shaking their heads and ethnic groups mightily pissed off.

    Energy focus gone, IR focus gone, childcare, company tax cuts ready to bomb.

    Amazing.

    Cheers.

  24. Same schoolboy debating tactic P1. Write this out in chalk 100 times..

    “WHAT WAS TRUE LAST YEAR ISN’T NECESSARILY TRUE NEXT YEAR’.

  25. https://www.beyondblue.org.au/media/media-releases/media-releases/jeff-kennett-hands-the-reins-of-beyondblue-to
    Media releases
    Jeff Kennett hands the reins of beyondblue to Julia Gillard
    21 Mar 2017
    Former Australian Prime Minister, The Hon. Julia Gillard AC, has been named the new Chair of beyondblue and will take over from The Hon. Jeff Kennett AC, when he hands over the reins at the end of June.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjUqa6mQdwk&t=7s

  26. Careful about moving into McCarthyism territory. Disagree with someone ? Roll out “Russian dupe” accusations.

    Seriously?

  27. Cud

    You mentioned that you are primarily interested in fast trains. I’m not an engineer but spent lots of time in the UK re-working cabinet documents from the Ministry for Transport and the associated company to get HS-2 (and the next bits to ‘fly’).

    Unfortunately, ‘Brexit’ has taken over, and not much else is talked about.

    But the way forward is clear and it doesn’t include Scotland.

  28. phoenixRed

    I have my fingers crossed that there is incontrovertible evidence waiting to be exposed. So far Trump and his cronies have doubled down and wont let go of the reigns of power quite so easily. We shall just have to see how far down the rabbit hole this whole sage goes.

    off to lunch. talk later………

  29. TPOF
    “Just a comment on Trump’s popularity. The real issue is not what happens in just under four years time. Rather, it is what happens in the mid-terms in just under 2 years time.”

    This is a salient point. The Dems have a bunch of tough (red-state) Senate races to contest in 2 years. They need to hold these if they are to have any chance of controlling the Senate.

    Also, there are a lot of GOP-held House seats in blue states. Trump may not care that voters in solid blue states like California and New York are horrified by his presidency; but a great many GOP members of congress would be worried. (Note Devin Nunes (R-CA) point-blank refusal to back Trump’s claims of wire-tapping by Obama.)

  30. Poroti

    Its not McCarthyism territory to acknowledge reality. I have at never stage said all. In fact in that last post of mine I specifically state you have to weed out the genuine from intelligence operations and the gullible.

    This is part of the role of the media. They knew this during the campaign and failed to make the case clear. Despite the intelligence community being clear at the time.

    Fox is the sterling example of this and the fact that the media did not highlight that they were being backgrounded on Russian operation at the time is criminal negligence by the press.

  31. “Our children and grandchildren will look back on the climate deniers and ask how they could have sacrificed the planet for the sake of cheap fossil fuel energy, when the cost of inaction exceeds the cost of a transition to a low-carbon economy,” Watson said.

    I find this inherently contradictory. If the planet is sacrificed, there is no future here.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/21/record-breaking-climate-change-world-uncharted-territory?CMP=twt_gu

  32. phoenixRed
    Before I head out. Speaking of John Schindler……….

    Russians saved Don when he bombed out in RE. They own him. He will go down with the Kremlin ship. Won’t be pretty.John Schindler added,
    John SchindlerVerified account @20committee
    Trump’s ties 2 Russia = $. Ton of spy shit but it’s really about $ — which Donnie couldn’t earn outside reality TV.
    https://twitter.com/20committee/status/843986493148487680

  33. Guytaur
    Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 12:12 pm
    Poroti

    Its not McCarthyism territory to acknowledge reality.

    Not to mention that you didn’t suggest locking up people for being fools. Trump supporters like the idea of locking up their opponents though…

  34. victoria Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 12:16 pm

    phoenixRed
    Before I head out. Speaking of John Schindler……….Russians saved Don when he bombed out in RE. They own him. He will go down with the Kremlin ship. Won’t be pretty.

    ******************************************
    That should make your lunch just a bit tastier then , Victoria …..

  35. AR
    “I saw the girl interviewed on the news the other day. She basically disowned the entire incident, sledged the guy as stupid (which he pretty much is). Parting words were something along the lines of “I feel for the kid, but…”.

    Crocodile tears?

    “A bit harsh, considering he’s already been chewed up and spit out by the croc. Now he’s doubly rejected.”

    In my pre-married days, I had dates like that.

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