Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

After a career-threatening result for Malcolm Turnbull three weeks ago, Newspoll records the Coalition bouncing back to near-competitiveness.

Newspoll records a much improved result for the Coalition, with Labor’s two-party lead cut from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 37%, Labor is down two to 35%, One Nation are steady on 10%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 30% and down two on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down one to 29% and up one to 57%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has improved from 40-33 to 43-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1819. Report from The Australian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

925 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 19
1 2 19
  1. Regarding the Newspoll, there was a line in Annabelle Crabbe’s Malcolm from Snowy Hydro piece that seemed most apt:
    “The Man From Snowy River then clapped on his Driza-Bone
    His hat and his elastic sided boots.
    He summoned his advisers via WhatsApp, text and phone.
    “We need a press announcement, friends! When suits?”

    His acolytes came running; at his rustic foot they kneeled.
    They ventured their advice to him when pressed.
    “Newspoll’s Tuesday, so that means the pollster’s in the field
    On Thursday: Make it Thursday. Thursday’s best.”

    Twitter: annabelcrabb”

  2. I think Essential is more reasonable opinion poll as it is taken and published every week 53-47 seems more believable and a truer result.

  3. You can imagine govt HQ after this neswpoll.
    Great news guys we’re back in it. Well done we’re back in the game. Keep doing what we’re doing!
    Umm, what are we doing?

  4. Parliament should be interesting this week. Labor with a bounce in their step from the WA State Election and the Coalition with a bounce in their step from this Newspoll.

    Labor need to keep up with their remaking of Bill Shorten, which seems to have started over the latest break from parliament…being seen at a Fitness Expo with the Governator…the new blue casual shirt…a slight variation on Bill’s haircut…

    I think they will all add to a more favourable image. He needs it. What with every second word out of every Coalition MP’s mouth being ‘Bill Shorten’ he really needs to break free of the shackles the Coalition are trying to drape him in. Turnbull has been undergoing a makeover as well. A bit more Trumpian and bumptious. Doing more striding purposefully to the mikes and cameras of the journalists. He’s also got them penned in like Trump does. So no more microphones in camera shot being stuck in his face with station logoes on them. Just him filling the frame.

    I guess Turnbull can afford to buy the best advice, and it’s been shown in the run-up to the election that he’s not averse to paying to keep the top job.

    Game On! The run-up to the Budget begins. Very important to see who comes out of this period on top.

  5. Regardless of whether or not Snow Job turns out to be a pipe dream, a good idea too late, or a good idea just in time, Malcolm appears to have handled the politics of the timing well, at least for his own short term political survival.

  6. Good evening all,

    Better poll for Turnbull. Not a major issue for labor seeing Turnbull has put in a massive effort to get this result. How long he can keep the Snowy front and centre will be interesting.

    As already noted this poll had just returned to the status quo of 52/53 -48/47 that has flowed since late last year. Remember, after all the hard work by Turnbull the coalition PV is still 5-6 points below the last election.

    Labor does not need to change its strategy at all especially after just one poll and no need for anyone to get their knickers in a knot. This is a return to normal service.

    My take anyway.


  7. Of course, regardless of the massive effort in the spruiking, if there turns out to be no substance to the hydro announcement, the numbers will soon turn very bad for Malcolm.

    Also, if the hydro plan does have substance, why was it not announced during the summer blackouts, to reassure us a solution was coming? I look forward to the planning studies and costings for the hydro scheme being realeased for us all to read.

  8. Of course the mejia will make hay with this poll, never mind the reality that the government hasn’t had a positive result since lordy knows when.

  9. Doyley
    “Labor does not need to change its strategy at all especially after just one poll and no need for anyone to get their knickers in a knot. This is a return to normal service.”

    True. This poll could easily still be MOE on a base result still sitting at 54/46. And as for policy, there is nothing inconsistent between the hydro scheme, if it works, and Labor’s policy for a carbon price.

  10. Socrates,

    There will be nothing positive from the Snowy announcement until at least next year. Power costs will rise for households and business between now and then unless Turnbull pulls another rabbit out of the hat between now and next year Turnbull nay be in a spot of bother. That is the problem with ” career saving ” announceables. Most turn out to be short term sugar hits.

    Anyway, life rolls on and we shall see where it all ends up in due time.


  11. I also think, if we could see a State by State breakdown of the numbers, that we might observe some of the air has gone out of the tires in WA after the election blowout. A bit of rebalancing between State and Federal.

  12. Seth @4

    Shorten should put more distance between Labor and Sally MacManus’s, frankly, dumb comments.

    Oh piffle! He already did and got bagged for it.
    Also, what is dumb about speaking about the obvious? a couple of points in newspoll and it may or may not be her fault so let’s call her comments dumb.
    Or worse, blame her. For a poll!
    Jesus, it’s like riding in a bus with people who never look out the windows.

  13. This stays Malcolm’s inevitable dispatch and will embolden him to keep doing whatever he has been doing for the last weeks. Ergo, nothing.
    SNAFU for the govt. The right wing eejits have been codged to a dull roar for the time being. That’s good for labor.
    Long game for Bill and labor.

  14. Sally McManus speaks to her base and good for her. She was spot on.
    Shorten/ALP had the right response – Sally should obey the rule of law.
    Behind closed doors they should sort it all out.

  15. TallebudgeraLurker
    Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 9:58 am
    Cud Chewer @ 400,
    Is sprayed PE coating available in Australia?
    I haven’t encountered it to date.

    Its coming slowly..

    Google “Fusion Bonded Medium Density Polyethylene site:au”

    There’s other forms of polyethylene coating that I’ve not seen here and there’s also copolymer spray coatings and multi layer coatings.

  16. Doyley,

    Turnbull has pretty much locked himself into having to fund a study. If you’re lucky you’ll get to read about it late in 2018. The way things are going he’ll have to call an election before then.

  17. William, Why did Bludgertrack revert to a linear regression after the election and when is it likely to go higher order again?

  18. Cud,

    Spot on.

    One thing I did find some humour in was the MSM parroting the Turnbull line that once the feasibility study was completed by the end of this year work would start soon after.

    Obviously the whole concept of a tender process, negotiations with NSW and Victoria over the financing of the construction, the possibility of legislation needing to be passed etc etc seems to have escaped the MSM. Finish the feasibility study on Friday, work starts the following Monday. I think not.

    Late 2018, if at all seems a tad optimistic. Meanwhile, Rome burns around Turnbull.


  19. I’ve worked construction projects for years. Not a hope for Snowy 2 to have main contracts signed before the next election, never mind work started.

    They have to tender for the pre feasibility studies, get them done, consider them with Snowy partners, tenders for feasibility study, get it done and consider it, more discussion with Snowy partners followed by the approvals process to execute the works then finally tenders for EPCM.

    Snowy 2 is a Turnbull brain fart whose rancid smell will have dissipated long before we get to EPCM tenders.

  20. Socrates @ 806 in the last thread,
    I am sure that AEMO and various other State and federal stakeholder departments have the numbers and fully understand the issues and the risks.
    The actual situation isn’t reported in the main stream press so all we see are snippets of information supporting one side of the argument or the other or sometimes just incoherent guff and confected crises

  21. Henry, if unions had “obeyed the rule of law”, they wouldn’t exist – it was illegal to form unions, back when they started being formed! If suffragettes had “obeyed the rule of law”, women would most likely still be denied the vote. If Rosa Parks had “obeyed the rule of law”, the Civil Rights Movement may never have had the spark it needed to get going. Those in power make laws to suit themselves, and usually make laws to make changing the power structure against the law.

    By all means, choose to disobey the law sparingly, and only when there’s a damned good reason to. But the notion that the law is sacred, above question and generally related to Divine Writ is a toxic one for any democratic nation!

  22. phoenixRED
    Monday, March 20, 2017 at 6:35 am

    All eyes on FBI Director James Comey as Russia and wiretap claims swirl

    FBI director James Comey will be in the hot seat Monday facing lawmakers who accuse him of stonewalling Congress, as they demand answers about Donald Trump’s potential Russia ties and the president’s extraordinary accusation of wiretapping by his predecessor.

  23. Conflicting stories on the ‘net this morning regarding Trump and Russia :

    Yes there IS evidence – No there is NOTHING that links them

    Guess its all wait and see what tomorrows meeting brings ….

  24. Sean Spicer Falsely Accuses Rachel Maddow Of A Crime As Trump Smears MSNBC Host

    White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer accused MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow of committing a crime, as the Trump administration is smearing the MSNBC host for reporting on the president’s tax returns.

    The Supreme Court has ruled that journalists are free to publish truthful information on matters of public concern as long as they did nothing illegal to obtain the information.

    Rachel Maddow did nothing illegal. She verified information that was given to her by contacting the White House, and then she reported on it. Maddow didn’t commit an illegal act. She practiced journalism.

    The reason why the White House is accusing her of a crime is that they are out to destroy her credibility. The Trump administration has taken notice of her soaring ratings, and they more concerned about what she may report on next than what she reported on last week.

  25. I would have thought that the White house accusing Rachel Maddow of a crime would be a sure fired way of getting her ratings up.

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Paul Keating has dramatically added his voice to those of industry and finance experts warning the Turnbull government against allowing superannuation savings to be used for house purchases. It would “pull the backside out of superannuation” he says.
    Meanwhile the NSW government will ramp up a program of encouraging major housing development near rail stations in Sydney, as well as pushing for new schemes that make it easier for renters to buy their own property.
    Michelle Grattan gets nicely stuck in to Dutton.
    Ross Gittins writes that someone’s got to give in order to fix the budget.
    Underemployment in Australia has rocketed to 1.1 million people. Matched against the government data on job vacancies, there are 17 job seekers competing for every job vacancy compared to a ratio of 4 to 1 using current ABS data on unemployment.
    Maureen Dowd writes that Trump is devouring his own presidency. She doesn’t hold back.
    The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has issued requests for proposals for prototypes for a wall along the Mexican border, saying ideally it should be 30 feet (9 meters) high and the wall facing the U.S. side should be “aesthetically pleasing in color.” Is this one of those “pigs might fly” moments?
    A Coles manager in Western Australia asked his staff to work for four hours for free on Sunday, just three weeks after the Fair Work Commission announced a cut to penalty rates. What in the hell is going on?

  27. Section 2 . . .

    Pater FitzSimons makes a strident call for action on concussions in the NRL.
    Great Barrier Reef tourism is heading for rough times as coral bleaching continues to worsen.
    Germany tells Trump that he doesn’t know what he’s talking about with NATO.
    Some Turnbull front benchers are trying to close ranks on the SSM issue.
    And that’s in the face of this survey of 12 Coalition seats on the issue.
    NSW and the feds are at loggerheads over access to Sydney Airport by regional airlines.
    At last Soapy releases his (heavily redacted} diary and it shows no evidence of meetings with legal service provider organisations. I suspect Dreyfus and Wong will be asking some questions in QT this week.
    The man in charge of the Productivity Commission’s inquiry into access to justice has criticised Attorney-General George Brandis for attempting to influence the outcome of the review. He has carrying on like a headless chook he says.
    Vitamin and supplement giant Swisse has asked the federal government to end its direct oversight of Australia’s $4 billion complementary medicine market in favour of a system of self-regulation. Surely they jest!!!
    Morrison’s going to try and push the “Google tax” bill though parliament this week.

  28. Section 4 . . .^with Cartoon Corner

    Child care costs rose at five times the rate of inflation last year!

    Cathy Wilcox with Dutton’s problem with the letter from many CEOs on SSM.

    Cathy Wilcox redefines “leadership”.

    Mark Davis with Dutton showing how it’s done.
    Broelman has Dutton losing the argument with Alan Joyce.

    Broelman puts our gas exports into perspective.

    And he drops in on the test pitch curator in India.

    David Rowe introduces the SSM danger rating system. Of course Potatohead features in it.

    Mark Knight farewells Chuck Berry.

  29. Section 3a . . .

    Australia’s industry super funds have launched an unprecedented advertising campaign against what they say is a lobbying by the banks to undermine superannuation savings.
    Jess Irvine asks and answers nine questions about the energy crisis.
    Eight directors and executives of collapsed electronics chain Dick Smith have been hit with a legal action that alleges a series of breaches of their duties and a damages claim that totals tens of millions of dollars. Google.
    If automation pushes joblessness to 20%, what happens to those who are left behind? Reducing working hours might be part of the solution. Greg Jericho looks at the downside of automation.
    More toll shock for Sydney commuters.
    While sleeping and eating are not optional, Australians are shortening the amount of time spent on these necessities for longer working hours leading to poor health outcomes. It’s not a pretty picture.

  30. Section 3b . . .
    Developers will have to radically lift their standards under Victoria’s new apartment design regime, with the results of a new study revealing the gap between what was previously allowed and what will soon be mandated. A bit of bad luck for the spivs perhaps.
    Trump and Spicer have made “absurd and dangerous” assertions about the involvement of the UK’s GCHQ in wiretapping according to a former long serving British ambassador to the US.
    Trump’s handshake manoeuvres are becoming quite an issue.
    Turnbull has taken the unusual step of using social media to directly repudiate a story suggesting his government was considering scrapping concession cards for welfare recipients in the May budget.

  31. Grace Collier, talking with Vanstone, has revealed the ‘truth’ behind the weekend penalty rates. The new rates are due to take effect at around the time of the next election. The whole thing is a set-up to allow Shorten to promise to reject them and thus win the election.

    That’s what she said, I swear.

  32. Trump budget chief who wants to cut Meals on Wheels says he is sacrificing by giving up business cards

    Severe cuts will come from programs that help poor seniors, military children, education, health and more. At the same time, Trump is still using $3 million each weekend in taxpayer dollars to vacation at his Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago.

    Mulvaney agreed that he knew the bill would hurt children and prevent them from having access to nutritional food from organizations like Meals on Wheels, but he wants people to know he’s suffering too.

    “Yes,” he began. “I don’t have a business card to give to you today, John, because, at the Office of Management and Budget, we have to pay for our own business cards. So it does start at home but it’s already started.”

  33. Thanks BK.
    The Sydney toll shock article is interesting. Annual increases to Sydney tolls are typically 4% or the CPI whichever is greater.
    There is a proposal to change this.
    The article has an argument against any change by the NSW state government saying if this is changed ‘costs will rise’ I didn’t quite follow the reasoning, but I am sure it is a triumph of neo classical economics.

  34. Regarding Mulvaney
    Yes,” he began. “I don’t have a business card to give to you today, John, because, at the Office of Management and Budget, we have to pay for our own business cards. So it does start at home but it’s already started.”
    So why hasn’t he got business cards, is he so cheap he won’t get his own printed?

  35. Morning all. The claim that “costs will rise” if tolls are not limited to inflation shows just how broken the business model has become. You can justify anything if you assume a massive rise in the income stream growth rate after you build it. Another lie, after the lies around the fake forecasts have been exposed.

    What does it take for people to realise that most of these toll roads are unviable. They only happen when a bucket of taxpayer dollars are tipped into a privately owned entity. We need to fund public transport, not for the environment, but for edonomic grounds. That is because our options to build cheap surface roads were finished in the 1990s. Once you have to put a freeway in tunnel or on bridges, it is cheaper to build a rail line, much cheaper if it is LRT.

  36. John Reidy

    Mulvaney is trying to make the point that he has made sacrifices, too.
    Food and business cards are so equal in value 😮

  37. There has been an awful lot of really really really dumb ideas to address housing affordability (or more correctly avoid dealing with the real problems).

    Allowing people to use their super to get into housing has to be the dumbest of the lot.

    The developers and real estate agents would be cheering so loud you could hear it from space.

  38. I see Chris Uhlmann has had someone help him with his homework:

    Anyone who reads the first draft of this article last night (Socrates posted it) would have been appalled (as I was) at the misinformation, errors and incorrect links in the original version of this article. How could the ABC have allowed such a shambolic mess to be published?

    The article has been substantially re-written overnight, so that at least it now reads correctly, even if you disagree with his conclusions (and I wouldn’t blame anyone for that – his arguments are still all over the shop).

    It so happens I agree with the conclusion …

    There is an equally difficult battle on the left, where few will admit the current technical limitations of renewables demand that gas generation has to fill the void left by coal.

    … but also I can’t help wishing Uhlmann would stay away from subjects he clearly knows nothing about.

Comments Page 1 of 19
1 2 19

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *