Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential talks penalty rates, party leaders and Tony Abbott’s five-point plan, while recording no change on voting intention.

No change this week, at all, from the Essential Research fortnight rolling average – Coalition and Labor 37% apiece, Greens and One Nation 9%, Nick Xenophon Team 3%, 53-47 to Labor on two-party preferred.

The poll finds 32% approval and 56% disapproval of the decision on penalty rates, with the disapproval more keenly felt (34% strongly) than the approval (9% strongly). Fifty-seven per cent thought the more likely result would be more profits for business, compared with 24% for more workers being employed. Fifty-one per cent favour legislation being passed to reverse the decision, with 31% opposed.

An occasional question on favoured party leaders shows little change for the Liberals since November, with Malcolm Turnbull down one to 20%, Julie Bishop down three to 17% and Tony Abbott on 10%, with Christopher Pyne, Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton (the latter newly added as a response option) each on 2%. For Labor, Bill Shorten is up four to 21%, Tanya Plibersek is down one to 13%, Anthony Albanese is down one to 11%, Chris Bowen is down one to 3%, and Tony Burke is steady on 2%.

Tony Abbott’s five-point plan for Liberal recovery is put to the test: approval is registered for cutting immigration to make housing more affordable (57% to 28%) and reforming the Senate to reduce the power of small parties (41% to 34%), but abolishing the Human Rights Commission to allow more free speech scores 33% to 44% against, and ending subsidies and targets for renewables to reduce household power bills (40% to 38%) and stopping all new government spending (43% to 41%) come in neutral.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,280 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. The world’s population is set to grow from 7 billion today to 9 billion in 2050. The pesticide industry argue that their products – a market worth about $50bn (£41bn) a year and growing – are vital in protecting crops and ensuring sufficient food supplies.

    “It is a myth,” said Hilal Elver, the UN’s special rapporteur on the right to food. “Using more pesticides is nothing to do with getting rid of hunger. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), we are able to feed 9 billion people today. Production is definitely increasing, but the problem is poverty, inequality and distribution.”

    Elver said many of the pesticides are used on commodity crops, such as palm oil and soy, not the food needed by the world’s hungry people: “The corporations are not dealing with world hunger, they are dealing with more agricultural activity on large scales.”

    The new report, which is co-authored by Baskut Tuncak, the UN’s special rapporteur on toxics, said: “While scientific research confirms the adverse effects of pesticides, proving a definitive link between exposure and human diseases or conditions, or harm to the ecosystem, presents a considerable challenge. This challenge has been exacerbated by a systematic denial, fuelled by the pesticide and agroindustry, of the magnitude of the damage inflicted by these chemicals, and aggressive, unethical marketing tactics.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/07/un-experts-denounce-myth-pesticides-are-necessary-to-feed-the-world

  4. darn @ #94 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 6:54 pm

    When Bill Shorten becomes PM in a couple of years time will the Labor government be able to sack Guthrie.
    ************************************************************************
    The ABC Board select the MD.

  5. lizzie @ #103 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 7:15 pm

    “While scientific research confirms the adverse effects of pesticides, proving a definitive link between exposure and human diseases or conditions, or harm to the ecosystem, presents a considerable challenge. This challenge has been exacerbated by a systematic denial, fuelled by the pesticide and agroindustry, of the magnitude of the damage inflicted by these chemicals, and aggressive, unethical marketing tactics.”

    Jeez, lizzie! I thought I posted some depressing stuff!

  8. If that is what you are criticising the Greens for doing, then you are being ridiculous.
    She is a tribal creature who strives to score points on a scoreboard that exists in her head. She isn’t interested in the issues.

  9. And national security experts agree: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/national-security-experts-cast-doubt-on-push-for-usstyle-department-of-homeland-security-20170307-gusogc.html

    In my opinion (not in the article) the highly authoritarian Peter Dutton is a far bigger hazard to the nation than the hugely hyped up terrorist threat. Further, if we did need a mega ‘Homeland Security’ department, I wouldn’t want him anywhere near it.

    And what is this Government doing about the huge real threat to the nation, climate change? They are on the Dark Side.

  10. Morrison got megalomania about something similar when he was running operation border farce or something like that.
    Absolutely predictably there was a lot of resistance. For example, navy rather thought that the Navy should be commanding navy ships, etc, etc, etc.
    Exactly the same response is going to greet the Scourge of Asylum Seekers.
    They might do a bit of rebadging and some minor reshuffling with a lot of roaring about killing Daesh and the like but it is hard to see the fundamentals shifting all that much.

  11. nicholas @ #108 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 7:43 pm

    If that is what you are criticising the Greens for doing, then you are being ridiculous.
    She is a tribal creature who strives to score points on a scoreboard that exists in her head. She isn’t interested in the issues.

    WTF!!!
    What on earth is this about or have you finally lost it completely?

  13. “The ABC Board select the MD”. Malcolm Turnbull basically appointed Guthrie, so Shorten should be able to fire her.

  14. S777

    Probably the most attractive argument for limited change is that the head of a new super department is going to want to bring all the disparate national security elements together in one new mega-complex at enormous taxpayer expense – possibly to be relocated to Dutton’s electorate of Dickson in Queensland.

    😆

  17. Player One
    Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 7:05 pm
    darn @ #94 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 6:54 pm

    When Bill Shorten becomes PM in a couple of years time will the Labor government be able to sack Guthrie.

    No need. There won’t be enough of the ABC left to bother about by then.

    Hopefully a newly elected Labor government would set about rebuilding it.

  18. darn @ #117 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 8:13 pm

    Player One
    Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 7:05 pm
    darn @ #94 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 6:54 pm
    When Bill Shorten becomes PM in a couple of years time will the Labor government be able to sack Guthrie.
    No need. There won’t be enough of the ABC left to bother about by then.

    Hopefully a newly elected Labor government would set about rebuilding it.

    I don’t know why you would bother responding to such idiotic rubbish.

  19. Oh Florida. Always Florida.

    A local Florida sheriff took to YouTube to give the black community advice on how they should behave and describe themselves.

    Escambia Sheriff David Morgan believes that part of his job description includes teaching black people how to be good citizens. During a YouTube video, Morgan explained that the job of African-Americans in this country is to mimic white Americans whenever possible.

    As such, Morgan explained that since his family is Welsh but he doesn’t refer to himself as a Welsh-American, neither should blacks call themselves African-Americans. We are all Americans, he says, and blacks should get in step with him.

    http://news.aazah.com/content/florida-sheriff-blacks-should-learn-act-white-people-order-stay-alive#.WL566_l97IU

  20. I certainly wouldn’t bother responding to someone that writes, “I don’t know why you would bother responding to such idiotic rubbish”.

  21. lizzie @ #103 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 7:15 pm

    The world’s population is set to grow from 7 billion today to 9 billion in 2050. The pesticide industry argue that their products – a market worth about $50bn (£41bn) a year and growing – are vital in protecting crops and ensuring sufficient food supplies.
    “It is a myth,” said Hilal Elver, the UN’s special rapporteur on the right to food. “Using more pesticides is nothing to do with getting rid of hunger. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), we are able to feed 9 billion people today. Production is definitely increasing, but the problem is poverty, inequality and distribution.”
    Elver said many of the pesticides are used on commodity crops, such as palm oil and soy, not the food needed by the world’s hungry people: “The corporations are not dealing with world hunger, they are dealing with more agricultural activity on large scales.”
    The new report, which is co-authored by Baskut Tuncak, the UN’s special rapporteur on toxics, said: “While scientific research confirms the adverse effects of pesticides, proving a definitive link between exposure and human diseases or conditions, or harm to the ecosystem, presents a considerable challenge. This challenge has been exacerbated by a systematic denial, fuelled by the pesticide and agroindustry, of the magnitude of the damage inflicted by these chemicals, and aggressive, unethical marketing tactics.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/07/un-experts-denounce-myth-pesticides-are-necessary-to-feed-the-world

    I don’t know about world hunger, but I do know that if you don’t spray your peaches and nectarines and apples with insecticide, you don’t get any peaches, nectarines or apples. Fruit fly and Codlin moth get the fruits of your labour.

  29. FWIW, having been a sometime food producer myself and having had first hand opportunities to observe directly food production systems for more than half a century, my strong view is that Australian food production would collapse without pesticides.
    A million Irish folk died in The Great Famine (inter alia) for want of a fairly straight forward fungicide.

  32. boerwar @ #129 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 8:43 pm

    FWIW, having been a sometime food producer myself and having had first hand opportunities to observe directly food production systems for more than half a century, my strong view is that Australian food production would collapse without pesticides.
    A million Irish folk died in The Great Famine (inter alia) for want of a fairly straight forward fungicide.

    A delightful story (to me, at any rate) is the one about copper being used as a fungicide.

    A Frenchman growing grapes for wine was cranky about passersby (there are usually no fences between the road and crops in Europe) pinching his grapes.

    So he sprayed the first two rows of his vineyard with a mixture of slaked lime and copper sulphate, making the leaves and the grapes both discoloured and bitter.

    Then he discovered that the sprayed grapes did not develop mildew, and thus Bordeaux mixture became a standard method of preventing fungal diseases in grapes.

  36. citizen @ #4 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 2:19 pm

    From previous thread:

    Zoomster
    Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 11:53 am
    On farmers getting it – there is a new organisation being formed called “Farmers for Climate Action’.
    http://www.farmersforclimateaction.org.au/

    Also, I wonder if the local and foreign corporations buying up farming land are more attuned to the effects of climate change than some of the older farmers. These corporations are out to make a dollar and they want sustainable farming methods in the long term.

    The Nationals major constituency these days is not farmers. Farming is now a very capital intensive business complete with semi autonomous vehicles, mechanical harvesting/picking and all manner of other farm automation practices. Farms now employ a tiny fraction of the labour they used to.

  37. henry @ #10 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 2:47 pm

    Other than the old fogeys at the Oz and the old fogeys in the coalition, 18c is not a water cooler topic.
    As for the impending dept of HS announcement Mal and Dutts will require a forest of flags and will need to arrive in army fatigues , bomber jackets and biggles flying caps, surely.

    You forgot to mention that he’ll rapel onto the podium from a helicopter.

  40. Rex Douglas
    Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 4:26 pm
    We have one genuine leader in this country. Dan Andrews.
    Getting things done.
    Non-Victorians must be very envious.
    —-
    Not sure if trolling or not … but new poll out tomorrow will show that Andrews would be turfed out in a landslide

  41. lizzie @ #103 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 7:15 pm

    The world’s population is set to grow from 7 billion today to 9 billion in 2050. The pesticide industry argue that their products – a market worth about $50bn (£41bn) a year and growing – are vital in protecting crops and ensuring sufficient food supplies.
    “It is a myth,” said Hilal Elver, the UN’s special rapporteur on the right to food. “Using more pesticides is nothing to do with getting rid of hunger. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), we are able to feed 9 billion people today. Production is definitely increasing, but the problem is poverty, inequality and distribution.”
    Elver said many of the pesticides are used on commodity crops, such as palm oil and soy, not the food needed by the world’s hungry people: “The corporations are not dealing with world hunger, they are dealing with more agricultural activity on large scales.”
    The new report, which is co-authored by Baskut Tuncak, the UN’s special rapporteur on toxics, said: “While scientific research confirms the adverse effects of pesticides, proving a definitive link between exposure and human diseases or conditions, or harm to the ecosystem, presents a considerable challenge. This challenge has been exacerbated by a systematic denial, fuelled by the pesticide and agroindustry, of the magnitude of the damage inflicted by these chemicals, and aggressive, unethical marketing tactics.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/07/un-experts-denounce-myth-pesticides-are-necessary-to-feed-the-world

    Lizzie there is plenty of food. My sister in law and her husband are farmers and anything up to 1/3 of their produce regularly gets fed to their cattle because it is not cosmetically acceptable. Their rejection rate is consistent with industry norms and there is other produce with a rejection rate above 50%. For example, a huge amount of cauliflower and brocoli is rejected by Coles & Woolworths because it’s either too big or has cosmetic blemishes.

  42. but new poll out tomorrow will show that Andrews would be turfed out in a landslide

    Which pollster is that?

    I live on the other side of the country, but my impression from PB is that while the Andrews govt is having some very good policy wins resulting in solid progressive legislative outcomes, he isn’t doing so well managing his troops.

  44. Obviously a very poor poll for the Victorian Government, but taken at the height of the revelations about the Speaker & Deputy Speaker’s “curious” living arrangements. There is still almost two years until the next poll – at least provided there aren’t too many more casualties on the Labor benches.

  45. This story is front page of the Herald Sun tomorrow. Leaves it vague (“obtained by”) as to who paid for the poll, so I’m guessing its a leaked internal or privately commissioned poll (they normally make a point of saying “Commissioned by The Herald Sun” or whatever). Paywalled, so if you want to read the whole thing try googling the URL or title.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/labor-party-faces-victorian-election-2018-wipeout-reachtel-poll/news-story/f74cc7da7b8be09cdf7f500b89eb6010

    Labor Party faces Victorian election 2018 wipeout: ReachTEL poll
    Matt Johnston, state politics editor, Herald Sun
    34 minutes ago

    VICTORIAN voters are abandoning a crisis-ridden Labor Party in droves.

    A new poll shows Premier Daniel Andrews’ government would be dumped in a landslide, losing up to 18 seats, if an election were held today.

    The Herald Sun has obtained a ReachTEL poll, the first commissioned since an expenses scandal claimed the scalps of the Speaker and deputy speaker, showing that Labor now trails the Coalition 46 to 54 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

    The ALP’s statewide primary vote has plummeted to 30.3 per cent, according to the poll.

    And Opposition Leader Matthew Guy has overtaken Mr Andrews as preferred premier, 34.7 per cent to 29.6 per cent.

    If these voting intentions were replicated at next year’s election, the ALP would lose up to 18 seats, including Mr Andrews’, his deputy James Merlino’s, and a swag of seats along the Frankston rail line.

    The poll of 1268 Victorians was conducted on March 2 — a few days after Speaker Telmo Languiller and deputy speaker Don Nardella resigned over their use of taxpayer-funded perks.

    ……………..

    A previous ReachTEL poll conducted by Fairfax in September had Labor holding a 51-49 two-party preferred lead, despite its primary vote plunging from 38 per cent at the 2014 election to 34.6 per cent.

    The September survey also found that 50 per cent of people thought the premier was too close to unions, after he gave in to United Firefighters Union boss Peter Marshall’s demands over an enterprise bargaining agreement for the Country Fire Authority.

    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0f42cd6405b688778d8286ae3d852786
    This link has the graphic with all the primaries etc.

  49. 56% disapproval rating for Andrews is the kicker …

    Shame Jane Garrett is on the long term injury list, nobody else left to replace him

  50. On the cricket, I thought Australia gave it a good fight, and were only undone batting last on another spinner’s paradise. It was actually a good, close game. They also had a drs decision go against them with Warner. I wouldn’t write them off. They have been playing well of late, and the decision to go to India early and prepare properly for the conditions has paid big dividends.

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