Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential talks penalty rates, party leaders and Tony Abbott’s five-point plan, while recording no change on voting intention.

No change this week, at all, from the Essential Research fortnight rolling average – Coalition and Labor 37% apiece, Greens and One Nation 9%, Nick Xenophon Team 3%, 53-47 to Labor on two-party preferred.

The poll finds 32% approval and 56% disapproval of the decision on penalty rates, with the disapproval more keenly felt (34% strongly) than the approval (9% strongly). Fifty-seven per cent thought the more likely result would be more profits for business, compared with 24% for more workers being employed. Fifty-one per cent favour legislation being passed to reverse the decision, with 31% opposed.

An occasional question on favoured party leaders shows little change for the Liberals since November, with Malcolm Turnbull down one to 20%, Julie Bishop down three to 17% and Tony Abbott on 10%, with Christopher Pyne, Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton (the latter newly added as a response option) each on 2%. For Labor, Bill Shorten is up four to 21%, Tanya Plibersek is down one to 13%, Anthony Albanese is down one to 11%, Chris Bowen is down one to 3%, and Tony Burke is steady on 2%.

Tony Abbott’s five-point plan for Liberal recovery is put to the test: approval is registered for cutting immigration to make housing more affordable (57% to 28%) and reforming the Senate to reduce the power of small parties (41% to 34%), but abolishing the Human Rights Commission to allow more free speech scores 33% to 44% against, and ending subsidies and targets for renewables to reduce household power bills (40% to 38%) and stopping all new government spending (43% to 41%) come in neutral.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,280 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Aside from the ON effect, the result in Murray-Wellington also reflects the quality of the Labor candidate. Robyn Clarke is an excellent example of WA Labor at its best. She’s smart, articulate, personable, down to earth and full of energy. She will be a great addition to the Parliament.

  2. I’ve been thinking (yes, yes, I know, but still).

    The established religions have little credibility or ethical authority left after the as yet unfinished Royal Commission, and will have even less after the findings are handed down.

    The new age tongue babblers/evangelical happyclappers /cum commercial enterprises, are largely right wing money funnels for conservative parties, or dangerous loonie cultists run by demented megalomaniacs intent on deflowering virgins, accumulating wives and generally ruining the lives and bank balances of their half witted believers.

    OK, that might be a slight, teenie weenie exaggeration, but there is a substantial kernel of truth in my cynical assessment of them and their intentions.

    They will never be of any benefit to any society I would chose to live in, and will never do any good for the Labor Party or any even moderately left of centre political organisation.

    Tax them.

    The States Constitutionally have the ability to impose income tax as they see fit, and even if they have delegated the collection and assessment of that Tax to the Commonwealth, they still retain the right to impose their own. Indeed, Turnbull was suggesting just that to the States only a few months ago.

    At the same time remove their exemption from the payment of Local Government rates, land tax, payroll tax, transfer duty and any other exemptions and concessions they receive.

    Labor shouldn’t be concerned by the pathetic fulminations from their pulpits and in their churches and halls. They are only preaching to their converted, and those people never voted Labor in the first place.

  3. ….And amidst the cheers, the whispering-campaign to roll Truffles and the “Is he gawn? Is he not-gawn?” over Brendan Grylls, one milestone was passed today. The Cashless Welfare Card “trial” in Ceduna was concluded, after its 12-month period. True to form, Tudge has praised it to the skies, stated that the Indue funny-money cards will be a fixture of life in the “trial” sites, and flagged more “trials” in other communities.

    Look for enabling legislation to be snuck in the back-pages of a “must-pass” bill, to evade scrutiny. Either that, or this’ll be one of the 30% of bills that Labor actually votes with the Coalition on…either way, if you’re on any form of income support except the old-age pension, get used to having no money. Because it’ll become the norm.

  4. Over the weekend, my household made a shift from Coopers to Mountain Goat as a boycott, but I don’t think we will be going back to Coopers. Goat is much nicer

  5. * There are increasing signs that there is a good chance that Teflon Trump will get a *walk* on this :

    Inside The Investigation To Get To The Bottom Of Russia’s Role In The Election

    The Senate Intelligence Committee has been given sweeping powers, unseen since the Watergate era, to investigate Russian meddling in the US election. As its scope grows to include suspected ties between the Trump camp and Russia, investigators are starting to worry politics have overhyped the probe.

    Even some Democrats on the Intelligence Committee now quietly admit, after several briefings and preliminary inquiries, they don’t expect to find evidence of active, informed collusion between the Trump campaign and known Russian intelligence operatives, though investigators have only just begun reviewing raw intelligence.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/alimwatkins/the-people-investigating-russias-role-in-the-election-worry?utm_term=.ogL5vKbEy7#.pywLRJvO2A

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Hartcher tells us about the invisible (to Australia) visit by the king of Saudi Arabia to Indonesia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/saudi-arabian-king-salmans-nineday-trip-to-indonesia-is-a-worry-for-australia-20170313-gux95l.html
    Amy Remeikis reports that Queensland may delay its election into 2018 in the hope that PHON will implode.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/wa-aftermath-labor-to-delay-queensland-state-election-in-hope-one-nation-implodes-20170313-guwwki.html
    But Nick O’Malley reckons it’s not all over yet for Hanson.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/its-far-too-soon-to-writeoff-pauline-hanson-and-the-populist-right-20170313-guwv7m.html
    Troy Bramston says that the stunning election victory of Labor leader Mark McGowan that obliterated Colin Barnett’s conservative government should resound like an alarm bell across the Nullarbor. But Malcolm Turnbull seemingly has learned little from the result. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/troy-bramston/hanson-option-still-alive-how-stupid-are-these-liberals/news-story/9137dd595fb13988b8a43eef46524c9b
    Phil Coorey writes that Nick Xenophon has said that Pauline Hanson would be mad to do any more preference deals with the Coalition because minor parties always end up the biggest loser from such arrangements. Google.
    /news/politics/nick-xenophon-warns-pauline-hanson-not-to-do-any-more-preference-deals-20170312-guwkrp
    Tony Wright has some fun at Hanson’s expense.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/please-explain-pauline-hanson-demands-that-james-ashby-tell-her-what-went-wrong-in-wa-20170313-guwo13.html
    Paula Matthewson says the last time a Liberal state government was dealt a smashing defeat at the polls, the Liberal Prime Minister at the time became a dead man walking.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/03/13/turnbull-wa-election-challenges/
    Most voters support a range of tax increases, including the “Buffett rule” and a minimum rate for multinational companies, while there is limited support for the Turnbull government’s $50bn corporate tax cut, the Guardian Essential poll has found.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/14/most-voters-support-minimum-tax-rates-for-high-earners-survey-finds
    It will be interesting to follow the legal case against Audi/VW in Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/volkswagen-audi-emissions-scandal-a-driver-speaks-out-20170312-guwnmj.html
    Sean Nicholls writes that the Turnbull government has been accused of engaging in “the politics of survival” by a senior NSW government minister who has demanded it “get on with some proper reform” including to address housing affordability.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/andrew-constance-criticises-turnbull-government-over-reform-20170313-guwyfk.html

  7. Section 2 . . .

    Andrew Street says it looks like Coopers Brewery has made quite a blue with its involvement with the Bible Society. There’s been a boycotting backlash from non-bigoted consumers. And CUB can tell them what that means!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/beers-and-bibles-how-coopers-created-their-own-pr-disaster-20170313-guwrww.html
    A lovely article from Kristina Keneally on parenthood and politicians.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/14/kate-ellis-didnt-quit-to-put-her-family-first-shed-always-done-that
    The Trump administration must step up and play a great role in our region, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said on Monday evening, as the rise of China and disputes over maritime boundaries present fresh challenges in the Indo-Pacific.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/julie-bishop-calls-for-trump-administration-to-do-more-in-asia-as-china-rises-20170313-guwt94.html
    Paul McGeough says Trump is playing with fire as he cleans out the Justice department of lawyers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/shooting-down-sheriff-of-wall-street-a-sign-of-trump-white-house-under-siege-20170313-guwpgz.html
    Kellyanne Conway continued to promote President Donald Trump’s unsubstantiated claim that his predecessor, Barack Obama, ordered wiretapping of his communications during the campaign by citing “microwaves that turn into cameras” as a possible source of surveillance. What a bloody dill!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/03/13/kellyanne-conway-defends-trump-wiretap-claim-by-citing-microwav/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    White House Chief Economic Adviser Gary Cohn had a rough interview on Fox News Sunday as host Chris Wallace kept pressing him on whether or not President Trump would support a health care plan that would take coverage away from millions of people. Republicans are tearing each apart over replacing Obamacare.
    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/03/12/fox-news-turns-trump-trashes-trumpcare-president-hits.html
    How crook is this? The Tax Office has been forced to admit it secretly handed sensitive employment details on its own workforce to a private firm in an attempt to voter-profile an all-staff industrial ballot. The ATO covertly supplied its contractor with the names, email addresses, locations of work and pay grades of each of its 19000 employees without their knowledge or consent.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/busted-public-services-voter-profiling-exposed-20170310-guv8uy.html
    Get ready for a ding dong stoush between the feisty Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May over a hard Brexit and Scottish independence.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/scotlands-leader-nicola-sturgeon-calls-for-second-independence-referendum-before-brexit-20170313-guxavx.html
    The North Shore by-election is hotting up as this surgeon with strong ideas enters the fray as an independent
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/doctor-stephen-ruff-to-stand-as-independent-in-north-shore-byelection-20170313-guwzui.html
    Democratic legislators fight back in Texas. On Friday Jessica Farrar filed a bill titled “Man’s Right to Know Act” which would require men to wait 24 hours after an “initial health care consultation” to receive an elective vasectomy, colonoscopy or Viagra prescription and fines men for releasing “unregulated masturbatory emissions.” I think it will be pulled.
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/news-and-views/satirical-texas-bill-turns-language-of-antiabortion-laws-on-men-fining-men-for-masturbating-20170313-guxb2d.html

  8. Section 3 . . .

    Keep digging Scotty!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/people-are-delaying-having-children-so-they-can-buy-a-house-scott-morrison-20170312-guwnm1.html
    Malcolm Turnbull has counselled senior ministers involved in a Victorian factional war to end the feud, amid allegations that the damaging leak of travel records against Health Minister Greg Hunt could have been an internal “political hit” writes Simon Benson in The Australian. Google.
    /national-affairs/turnbulls-rebuke-for-warring-victorian-ministers/news-story/e47b6e56f51083397c44116d2f8edc33
    The NSW government is under fire over the burgeoning stamp duty inflows from housing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/business-urges-gladys-berejiklian-to-act-on-stamp-duty-growth-20170313-gux2s7.html
    Just go away Mehajer!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salim-mehajer-demands-retraction-and-eyes-a-second-act-in-politics-20170313-guwu3q.html
    On the day that SA will outline its plan to take greater charge of energy it’s apparent that the rampant deregulation in Victoria over the years has not at ll served them well.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/energy-security-fears-trigger-action-on-power-supply-20170313-gux1e1.html
    Here’s what the AFR thinks Jay Weatherill and Tom Koutsantonis will say this morning about energy security and prices in SA. Google.
    /business/energy/electricity/gas-market-shakeup-in-sa-energy-plan-20170313-guwsj7
    And Katherine Murphy says that Turnbull is under pressure as gas supply takes centre stage in the energy crisis.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/13/turnbull-gas-supply-centre-stage-australia-power-crisis
    According to another report from the Grattan Institute the failure of Australia’s electricity market has triggered a call for government intervention since deregulation has fattened profit margins of power companies but left many households worse off.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/household-ripoffs-trigger-call-to-reregulate-electricity-20170312-guwmze.html
    Michael West tells us in a detailed article that it is bizarre that gas customers in Japan buy Australian gas more cheaply than Australians. Some of this gas is drilled in the Bass Strait, piped to Queensland, turned into liquid and shipped 6,700 kilometres to Japan … but the Japanese still pay less than Victorians.
    http://www.michaelwest.com.au/gas-the-crisis-of-guile-and-greed/
    And the ACCC has chimed in warning that gas shortages have made manufacturing almost “impossible” and LNG exporters should take action to help resolve the supply crisis.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/gas-shortages-make-manufacturing-impossible-accc-20170313-guwwac.html

  9. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    The next two months will be crunch time for European nationalists.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/crunch-time-for-european-nationalists-20170312-guwm1k.html
    And for your morning purgative here’s Amanda Vanstone’s latest effort.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/bill-shorten-is-playing-us-all-for-fools-20170312-guwnt8.html

    Alan Moir shares Hanson’s WA woes with us.
    http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/u/x/4/n/0/image.related.articleLeadwide.620×349.guwmh9.png/1489391361664.jpg
    David Pope has Turnbull playing catch-up with Jay Weatherill.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6x0XIIU8AAPhQT.jpg
    Cathy Wilcox and International Women’s Day.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6xTwe1U0AAQlLg.jpg
    David Rowe takes us into the locker room with a desperate Malcolm Turnbull.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6xxUuMVoAAcvhK.jpg
    Cathy Wilcox at the (late) unveiling of Peter Slipper’s portrait in Parliament House.
    http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/u/u/k/t/g/image.gallery.socialLead.620×349.fhd6.png/1489367241958.jpg
    Matt Golding sums up the Barnett government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/u/w/3/m/w/image.gallery.socialLead.620×349.gl6ndp.png/1489365669200.jpg
    Mark Knight has a beauty on Turnbull and battery power.
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/latest-mark-knight-cartoons/image-gallery/3a75151fbab76180dfd2225950ca23da

  10. Good Morning Bludgers! 🙂

    First day of Door-knocking for our local Gosford By-election today! (I’m hoping it doesn’t pour with rain).

    Nevertheless, I will not complain as it will be doubly hard for our candidate, who has to get around in a wheelchair!

  11. I see that post my going to bed a number of the usual suspects managed to conflate the right to quiet enjoyment of one’s leisure time playing the Pokies at your local with the current RC in to institutional child abuse with the bonus anti-Catholic/anti religion bigotry theme thrown in.
    How amusement.
    Yabba is doing a sterling job displaying all his inadequacies and inability to do anything more than regurgitate bullshit and abuse. Yabba doesn’t understand that repeating crap means you are still talking crap. Hectoring abuse is hectoring abuse.
    However, in the name of goodwill and scientific research I do believe that I’ve discovered the cause for all his angst.

    https://twitter.com/

  12. fulvio sammut @ #3234 Monday, March 13, 2017 at 11:06 pm

    Is this a psephology forum or a Psychoanalysts’ Convention?

    It is a blog, with threads, loosely based on elections and polls.

    The threads wander all over the place, that is why they are not called rods.

    Most of us are not one dimensional, we have a broad range of interests, some related to politics, some only loosely so.

    We discuss what we discuss. Get over it, you and others who think that they can determine the topic du jour.

    I find the side issues just as interesting as the strictly political ones, as do many here, which is why we come.

    Get a life.

  13. Morning all. Thanks BK. hartcher’s article on Salman’s visit to Indonesia is a good piece of journalism. Australia has had a policy of ebgagement with Indonesia dating back to when I was in high school. We would be folls to throw it away. The last thing we want is Indonesia to develop into another Pakistan on our border. That is exactly what the Saudis want.

    Also (stating the obvious) just what does Saudi Arabia have to do before western countries start acting against it?? They spawned Daesh, yet we still treat them like a country, rather than the feudal dictatorship it is, complete with slavery, illegal but not prosecuted. They are the world’s largest source of terrorists ans terrorist funding. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_trafficking_in_Saudi_Arabia

  14. “Is this a psephology forum or a Psychoanalysts’ Convention?”

    I think psychology, and sometimes psychiatry, is quite useful to understand politicians.

  15. ‘ But that god created the universe, which, at the time, around 6,000 years ago, as recorded in their book, consisted of the earth, flat, in the middle, with the stars above, and hellfire below, and the seas around.’

    To be fair, that’s just ONE of the creation myths in the Bible. It has at least one other.

  16. fulvio sammut @ #3256 Tuesday, March 14, 2017 at 2:39 am

    I’ve been thinking (yes, yes, I know, but still).
    The established religions have little credibility or ethical authority left after the as yet unfinished Royal Commission, and will have even less after the findings are handed down.
    The new age tongue babblers/evangelical happyclappers /cum commercial enterprises, are largely right wing money funnels for conservative parties, or dangerous loonie cultists run by demented megalomaniacs intent on deflowering virgins, accumulating wives and generally ruining the lives and bank balances of their half witted believers.
    OK, that might be a slight, teenie weenie exaggeration, but there is a substantial kernel of truth in my cynical assessment of them and their intentions.
    They will never be of any benefit to any society I would chose to live in, and will never do any good for the Labor Party or any even moderately left of centre political organisation.
    Tax them.
    The States Constitutionally have the ability to impose income tax as they see fit, and even if they have delegated the collection and assessment of that Tax to the Commonwealth, they still retain the right to impose their own. Indeed, Turnbull was suggesting just that to the States only a few months ago.
    At the same time remove their exemption from the payment of Local Government rates, land tax, payroll tax, transfer duty and any other exemptions and concessions they receive.
    Labor shouldn’t be concerned by the pathetic fulminations from their pulpits and in their churches and halls. They are only preaching to their converted, and those people never voted Labor in the first place.

    I’ve put a fair bit of thought into this over the years because I agree that most churches are little more than commercial enterprises these days.

    The High Court ruled years ago that the following of a religion was in and of itself a charitable activity, which confirmed the existing law/practice rather than set a new precedent. I don’t agree it is a charitable activity and I think they should be stripped of their Deductible Gift Recipient Status as it relates to their purely religious activities, however its a public policy position that I can live with.

    I’m happy for them to retain Deductible Gift Recipient Status for their actual charitable work. They can donate the profits from their taxed businesses to their charitable arm and claim a tax deduction, just like anyone else.

    Where I most definitely do not agree with them being tax free is their commercial services, there is no good reason that their interests in hospitals, retirement villages, retail chains, engineering businesses, food manufacturing or outsourced government services should be treated as tax free. None of their competitors in those fields have tax free status and it is a significant distortion of the market for the churches to have it.

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