Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential talks penalty rates, party leaders and Tony Abbott’s five-point plan, while recording no change on voting intention.

No change this week, at all, from the Essential Research fortnight rolling average – Coalition and Labor 37% apiece, Greens and One Nation 9%, Nick Xenophon Team 3%, 53-47 to Labor on two-party preferred.

The poll finds 32% approval and 56% disapproval of the decision on penalty rates, with the disapproval more keenly felt (34% strongly) than the approval (9% strongly). Fifty-seven per cent thought the more likely result would be more profits for business, compared with 24% for more workers being employed. Fifty-one per cent favour legislation being passed to reverse the decision, with 31% opposed.

An occasional question on favoured party leaders shows little change for the Liberals since November, with Malcolm Turnbull down one to 20%, Julie Bishop down three to 17% and Tony Abbott on 10%, with Christopher Pyne, Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton (the latter newly added as a response option) each on 2%. For Labor, Bill Shorten is up four to 21%, Tanya Plibersek is down one to 13%, Anthony Albanese is down one to 11%, Chris Bowen is down one to 3%, and Tony Burke is steady on 2%.

Tony Abbott’s five-point plan for Liberal recovery is put to the test: approval is registered for cutting immigration to make housing more affordable (57% to 28%) and reforming the Senate to reduce the power of small parties (41% to 34%), but abolishing the Human Rights Commission to allow more free speech scores 33% to 44% against, and ending subsidies and targets for renewables to reduce household power bills (40% to 38%) and stopping all new government spending (43% to 41%) come in neutral.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,280 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. I hate to say this but I agree with Barnaby on interest in changing 18c.

    No one brings it up generally unless a politician makes a point of it directly in a speech in front of a live audience and then they may get some questions on it.

    So if you’re Barnaby who doesn’t mention it then usually no one else does. The general punter has other stuff they want to talk about.

    If you are Abetz or Dean Smith and you rant about it at every opportunity then you’ll get questions.

  4. From previous thread:

    Zoomster
    Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 11:53 am
    On farmers getting it – there is a new organisation being formed called “Farmers for Climate Action’.
    http://www.farmersforclimateaction.org.au/

    Also, I wonder if the local and foreign corporations buying up farming land are more attuned to the effects of climate change than some of the older farmers. These corporations are out to make a dollar and they want sustainable farming methods in the long term.

  6. So if you’re Barnaby who doesn’t mention it then usually no one else does. The general punter has other stuff they want to talk about.

    Most definitely. But you’ve given me the idea to raise it among friends to see if any of them even know what 18C is. I’d be very surprised if they do.

  7. People really are dumb enough to go for a government with no checks or balances by stealth huh ?

    I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised given Queensland was dumb enough to vote to extend the term of a majorotorian unicameral Parliament to 4 years.

    People seem far less concerned with good government than with strong government.

  9. I’m pretty sure one big league yuuujuuuuge flag with an unblinking eye on it will suffice for the DHS announcement.

  10. Other than the old fogeys at the Oz and the old fogeys in the coalition, 18c is not a water cooler topic.
    As for the impending dept of HS announcement Mal and Dutts will require a forest of flags and will need to arrive in army fatigues , bomber jackets and biggles flying caps, surely.

  11. Guthrie has the usual CEO attitude to staff. When things go right, I take the credit. When things go wrong, YOU’RE to blame.

    Guthrie to ABC staff: success is up to you
    2:19PMDARREN DAVIDSON
    ABC managing director Michelle Guthrie has warned employees they’ll be held “accountable for their successes and failures”.

    Guthrie to ABC staff: success is up to you
    2:19PMDARREN DAVIDSON
    ABC managing director Michelle Guthrie has warned employees they’ll be held “accountable for their successes and failures”.

  12. Elaugaufein
    At last a use for this picture. Imagine on a large poster with this picture

    At the bottom of which is the slogan “Peter Dutton is watching YOU ! “.

  13. I expect attitudes to the penalty rates issue will harden even further, once it gets through to more people that this decision will impact far more people than those who will be hit on July 1st. The campaign on this issue is only just getting started, and will cause a much deserved world of pain for the government.

  16. As noted previously, the Essential questions are very poor and have a strong element of push polling in assuming outcomes etc.
    Lots of people might agree to abolish the Human Right Commission if it meant more free speech but if the question said it was so that there are less restrictions on people saying things that offend, insult, humiliate or intimidate another person or a group of people based on their race, colour or national or ethnic origin – the answers would be likely be reversed.

  17. I’ve spent all of the afternoon curled up on the bed with the iPad watching the banking inquiry. I must say I have been impressed with the CEO of the ANZ Bank. Far more than Ian Narev.

  19. BK – The banks must be getting nervous and might well be near the point where they’d be prepared to let the Libs have an RC with more favourable terms of reference for them rather than keep fighting it off because they must now understand that Labor will have one later with much less favourable ones if the Libs don’t.

  24. CTar1

    Has the Lad ‘got it’?

    No, the lad hasnt got it. The lad is trying a few things because most of the time he doesnt want to use CCCP or use blockquotes.

  25. Apologies to Bludgers for my failure to post exciting energy-related info in recent days. Have been trying to get some work done.
    Here’s a couple of beauties;

    CEFC sees limited role for gas in high renewable grid

    (Or why the fuck would you go with an un-financeable project dependent on an expensive fuel with long-term indeterminate pricing and availability when you can install something that’s easy to finance, everyone loves and with FREE fuel.)

    But CEFC chief executive Oliver Yates says any new fossil-fuel generation in Australia would be unlikely to find private sector finance at an acceptable cost.

    “While there are several proposals in the market for new gas-fired generators in Australia, our observations indicate that it is challenging to find long-term domestic gas supply agreements to support new investment,” the submission says.

    It notes that gas prices – which have already jumped sharply thanks to new LNG export facilities – are expected to rise significantly further in real terms over the next 15 years as international demand increasingly determines Australian domestic gas prices.

    In addition, peaking gas-fired generation is likely to be sidelined by new large-scale and rooftop solar installations, which will change daily electricity generation profiles. On top of this, gas-fired generation is likely to have a shorter economic life under future carbon constraints.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/cefc-sees-limited-role-gas-high-renewable-grid-19336/
    (if reneweconomy is too radical lefty for some PBer’s, then go to the actual Finkel review.)
    Finkel also reckons renewables are a lot quicker to roll-out than fossil fuel plants, which should please P1 as he was worried about this.
    http://www.cleanenergyfinancecorp.com.au/media/246032/cefc-submission-to-the-independent-review-into-the-future-security-of-the-national-electricity-market-february-2017.pdf

  28. Suck on this you alt-truthers Turnbull and Frydenberg.
    Biggest risk to grid security is coal, gas settings, not wind or solar
    The biggest threat to network stability in Australia’s electricity grid is not from an increase in renewables such as wind and solar, but the control settings on the dominant fleet of “synchronous generators” – namely the country’s coal and gas fleet.
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/biggest-risk-to-grid-security-is-coal-gas-settings-not-wind-or-solar-45195/

  29. Certainly won’t be JK Rowling, who is a blonde. Not with her marvellous ongoing twitter war with the presidential numpty.

  31. bk @ #18 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 3:24 pm

    The Senate Inquiry into energy is being told all sorts of things that must be done – bot they are all at odds with the government’s strident stances. What a mess thaey have got us into.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/07/energy-executives-say-gas-market-not-windfarms-to-blame-for-south-australias-woes

    AGL is correct about the problem. But have a look at their proposed solution:

    From http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/agl-mulls-300m-gas-terminal-to-import-lng-as-prices-rise/news-story/53768003c4721fd23545bebbd34f3987?nk=139d9f8005471de79cac086a1ab3222a-1488861219

    The company said it would spend $17m on a feasibility study to bring LNG from Asia, the US, the Middle East, Europe or Africa and convert it back to gas at a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) that would be stored at a southeast port where it could be hooked up to the connected eastern states gas market.

    The investment comes despite Australia exporting billions of dollars worth of LNG annually to customers across Asia. The east coast gas market has been severely tightening amid growing demand and inadequate supply.

    So we sell our LNG to Asia for a pittance, and then import it back at double the price?

    Are these people insane? Or do they think we are all that stupid?

    We need a national gas reservation policy.

  34. mari, Allan Moyes:

    I was thinking Kellyanne Conway, but that would assume Moir is insinuating their relationship is more than strictly professional.

  37. **I just about swallowed my tonsils**
    It is the republican party and I think bumholes has something to do with it.

  39. Far out. You blink and you miss 3 wickets.

    Starc with 2 in 2 balls and The Coal Fired Power Station follows up a few balls later.

  47. Now if Guytar and P1 hold off, this blog will improve out of sight

    Have you identified a common factor yet?

  49. Could someone post William’s e-mail address, please?

    (It used to be up the top of the page somewhere but I can’t find it now.)

  50. We have one genuine leader in this country. Dan Andrews.

    Getting things done.

    Non-Victorians must be very envious.

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